Melniko Summer Picks

[Melniko]

8/19

SAR
R2 - #7 Skylar's Artemis (12-1) I actually think the race coming off the lawn will help this one. Terranova has been using JV for his live ones this meet, so it's worth a shot if the price stays up there.
R5 - #5 Ala Carte (8-1) went 6 wide in a 5-horse field in last try (huh?) - since then, has worked a 46.4 and gets blinkers today. Sneaky.
R7 - #4 Tax Implications (5-1) I expect T-Gaff to gun it from the rail, and at least one of the four Chad Brown entries will sacrifice themselves. Sets it up for the #4 very nicely.
R8 - #4 Favor (6-1) she needed that last one and I expect improvement today. Not sold on the favorite - I'm looking for another late fold which is all I need.
R9 - #7 Gambling Girl (8-1) I get the feeling Pletcher brought this horse to Saratoga just to win this race. Irad never really asked her for much in the CCA Oaks, and now she makes her second start off the layoff (a TP specialty in Graded Stakes). I don't expect 8-1, but I do expect a big performance.

 

[Melniko]

8/19

SAR
R2 - #7 Skylar's Artemis (12-1) I actually think the race coming off the lawn will help this one. Terranova has been using JV for his live ones this meet, so it's worth a shot if the price stays up there.
R5 - #5 Ala Carte (8-1) went 6 wide in a 5-horse field in last try (huh?) - since then, has worked a 46.4 and gets blinkers today. Sneaky.
R7 - #4 Tax Implications (5-1) I expect T-Gaff to gun it from the rail, and at least one of the four Chad Brown entries will sacrifice themselves. Sets it up for the #4 very nicely.
R8 - #4 Favor (6-1) she needed that last one and I expect improvement today. Not sold on the favorite - I'm looking for another late fold which is all I need.
R9 - #7 Gambling Girl (8-1) I get the feeling Pletcher brought this horse to Saratoga just to win this race. Irad never really asked her for much in the CCA Oaks, and now she makes her second start off the layoff (a TP specialty in Graded Stakes). I don't expect 8-1, but I do expect a big performance.

No winners - shouldn't have posted. I really had a tough time with yesterday's card.
100/0
Summer total - 5,000/4,942 (0.99)

 

[Melniko]

8/20

SAR
R1 - #4 From Hello (12-1) not overly enthused with backing Katie on the grass, but this filly has had legit excuses in her last two and still finished with Beyers that rival any in this race. Just needs a clean trip to have a chance.
R2 - #2 Backed By Gold (8-1) her best wins this easily and since she's making her third start of the summer, and she improved from comebacker to the second start, I am banking on her best.
R4 - #5 She's Fire (4-1) wire to wire.
R6 - #7 Memorialize (4-1) rider lost irons at the break in debut at Colonial and the damn horse made up almost 20 lengths in a 5.5 sprint to lose by 2. I'm excited to see her run again today.
R10 - #10 Mudville Nine (4-1) seemed to figure this game out in last try just 3 weeks ago here. Turns back to 6f from a mile and may just gun it from that outside post (which is helped by two scratches to his inside).

 

[Melniko]

8/20 Results

SAR
R1 - #4 From Hello (12-1)
R2 - #2 Backed By Gold (8-1)
R4 - #5 She's Fire (4-1)
R6 - #7 Memorialize (4-1) winner paid $14.00
R10 - #10 Mudville Nine (4-1) winner paid $5.70

100/197
Summer total - 5,100/5,139 (1.01)

 

[Melniko]

8/21

PRX
R3 - #1 Twist Her (9-2)
R4 - #1 Marion Grace (7-2)
R5 - #3 Veeson (5-1)
R7 - #7 Witty (5-2)
R12 - #8 Neecie Marie (6-1)

 

[Melniko]

8/21 Results

PRX
R3 - #1 Twist Her (9-2) winner paid $3.80
R4 - #1 Marion Grace (7-2)
R5 - #3 Veeson (5-1) winner paid $9.60
R7 - #7 Witty (5-2) 2nd
R12 - #8 Neecie Marie (6-1) winner paid $6.60

100/200
Summer total - 5,200/5,339 (1.03)

 

[Jack1999]

Hey Mel I think this is your best effort so far to Date tracking your action. Very impressive job. I hope you can finish in + territory by Labor day. Good luck.

 

[Melniko]

Hey Mel I think this is your best effort so far to Date tracking your action. Very impressive job. I hope you can finish in + territory by Labor day. Good luck.

Thanks, Jack. I think sticking to just a handful of tracks (while concentrating on NYRA) has helped. I sometimes hurt myself by trying to handicap too many tracks. It will be a long shot to finish in the black, but it would be nice.

 

[Jack1999]

Thanks, Jack. I think sticking to just a handful of tracks (while concentrating on NYRA) has helped. I sometimes hurt myself by trying to handicap too many tracks. It will be a long shot to finish in the black, but it would be nice.

Yeah No doubt Mel the action style of capping hurts the bottom line in the long run. I am a much better capper when I concentrate on 1 or 2 tracks max. I think you will place in the Black but if not high 90% at worst. great job. THX.

 

[Melniko]

8/22

PRX
R2 - #4 Last Dream (4-1)
R4 - #1 Irish Maxima (5-1)
R6 - #4 Ridin With Biden (5-2)
R7 - #5 Awesome Strong (6-1)
R10 - #5 Foggy Night (4-1)

 

[Melniko]

8/22 Results

PRX
R2 - #4 Last Dream (4-1) 3rd
R4 - #1 Irish Maxima (5-1) winner paid $8.00
R6 - #4 Ridin With Biden (5-2) winner paid $3.80
R7 - #5 Awesome Strong (6-1)
R10 - #5 Foggy Night (4-1) winner paid $7.20

100/190
Summer total - 5,300/5,529 (1.04)

 

[Melniko]

8/25

WO
R4 - #4 Executive Effect (6-1) drops in class and picks up the track's best turf jockey for initial grass try.
R5 - #3 Box N Score (10-1) speaking of class droppers, this one takes a tumble to lowest level ever and gets blinkers back in third off the layoff.
R8 - #2 Preetzah's Star (20-1) he's run well in his last two sprinting on the synthetic. This is an easier field than those two - worth a shot at double digits.

SAR
R6 - #3 Apollo Ten (8-1) I love backing Violence 2 year-olds that show solid workouts. And Franco has been riding as well as anyone (except T-Gaff) lately. The price makes this an obvious play for me.
R9 - #5 Nest (4-5) Seriously, how does she lose?

 

[Melniko]

8/25

WO
R4 - #4 Executive Effect (6-1) drops in class and picks up the track's best turf jockey for initial grass try.
R5 - #3 Box N Score (10-1) speaking of class droppers, this one takes a tumble to lowest level ever and gets blinkers back in third off the layoff.
R8 - #2 Preetzah's Star (20-1) he's run well in his last two sprinting on the synthetic. This is an easier field than those two - worth a shot at double digits.

SAR
R6 - #3 Apollo Ten (8-1) I love backing Violence 2 year-olds that show solid workouts. And Franco has been riding as well as anyone (except T-Gaff) lately. The price makes this an obvious play for me.
R9 - #5 Nest (4-5) Seriously, how does she lose?

no winners
100/0
Summer total - 5,400/5,529 (1.02)

 

[Melniko]

8/26

SAR
R3 - #7 Mighty Atlas (6-1) looks like an improver and will likely take another step forward in second try with the Maker juice.
R4 - #8 Sky And Sand (6-1) really took to the track under Saez in Saratoga debut. Now switches barns and faces tougher, but I expect him to go straight to the front from that outside post and I trust Santana in the stretch.
R8 - #7 Acoustic Ave (8-1) gets Lasix for the first time. Might try to wire 'em - not much speed in here.
R10 - #2 Matareya (6-1) nice string of works here at the Spa going back to mid-July signals readiness. Has two Grade 1 victories in last 9 months and still might be overlooked at the windows.
R12 - #7 Scotland (12-1) continues to improve with every run and I think the added distance will guarantee another lifetime best. Spotty resume with no graded stakes tries coming into this race will keep the odds more than fair, but Mott wouldn't have him in here if he wasn't confident he belonged.

 

[Melniko]

8/26

SAR
R3 - #7 Mighty Atlas (6-1) looks like an improver and will likely take another step forward in second try with the Maker juice.
R4 - #8 Sky And Sand (6-1) really took to the track under Saez in Saratoga debut. Now switches barns and faces tougher, but I expect him to go straight to the front from that outside post and I trust Santana in the stretch.
R8 - #7 Acoustic Ave (8-1) gets Lasix for the first time. Might try to wire 'em - not much speed in here.
R10 - #2 Matareya (6-1) nice string of works here at the Spa going back to mid-July signals readiness. Has two Grade 1 victories in last 9 months and still might be overlooked at the windows.
R12 - #7 Scotland (12-1) continues to improve with every run and I think the added distance will guarantee another lifetime best. Spotty resume with no graded stakes tries coming into this race will keep the odds more than fair, but Mott wouldn't have him in here if he wasn't confident he belonged.

A couple of close shaves, but another shut out. Acoustic Ave paid $9.10 to place in the 8th.
100/0
Summer Total - 5,500/5,529 (1.00)

 

[Melniko]

8/27 - big day today, will go back in the red if I don't hit a couple.

SAR
R3 - #2 Dakota Gold (5-2) showed an affinity for the soft turf when just missing in the Lure Stakes. Primed to move forward off that run - we just need Prat to stay close or Jerry The Nipper might steal it.
R6 - #9 Refuah (10-1) caught at the wire three weeks ago at a mile. Now gets a furlong reprieve and breaks from the outside, where he's done his best work.
R9 - #2 U Should B Dancing (5-1) Prat jumps ship, but the consolation prize is JO, not bad. Will need a path through the traffic but has the best closing kick of this bunch - by far.

WO
R8 - #7 Kinetic Stone (4-1) I'm playing against the favorite here and if you throw that one out, this is the logical selection (at a better price).
R9 - #6 Rocket Riley (6-1) will be storming home!

 

[Melniko]

8/27 - big day today, will go back in the red if I don't hit a couple.

SAR
R3 - #2 Dakota Gold (5-2) showed an affinity for the soft turf when just missing in the Lure Stakes. Primed to move forward off that run - we just need Prat to stay close or Jerry The Nipper might steal it.
R6 - #9 Refuah (10-1) caught at the wire three weeks ago at a mile. Now gets a furlong reprieve and breaks from the outside, where he's done his best work.
R9 - #2 U Should B Dancing (5-1) Prat jumps ship, but the consolation prize is JO, not bad. Will need a path through the traffic but has the best closing kick of this bunch - by far.

WO
R8 - #7 Kinetic Stone (4-1) I'm playing against the favorite here and if you throw that one out, this is the logical selection (at a better price).
R9 - #6 Rocket Riley (6-1) will be storming home!

no winners - ugly weekend
100/0
5,600/5,529 (0.99)

 

[Melniko]

8/28

PARX
R2 - #9 Urmizzenthepoint (8-1)
R5 #5 Bet On Drama (9-2)
R6 - #4 Classy Sadie (5-1)
R9 - #2 Speightster Red (12-1)
R10 - #1 Never Satisfied (4-1)

 

[Melniko]

8/28 - Results

PARX
R2 - #9 Urmizzenthepoint (8-1) winner paid $4.40 (they sure did bet him down!)
R5 #5 Bet On Drama (9-2) scratch
R6 - #4 Classy Sadie (5-1)
R9 - #2 Speightster Red (12-1) scratch
R10 - #1 Never Satisfied (4-1) scratch

40/44.00
Summer total - 5,640/5,573 (0.99)

 

[Melniko]

8/29

TDN
R1 - #6 Breezy Money (7-2)
R3 - #3 Purdy Pumkin (6-1)
R5 - #2 Snazzy (5-2)

PRX
R4 - #1 Patty Cakes (9-2)
R7 - #9 Shooger Ray Too (5-1)
R10 - #10 Tap It Up (9-2)