mets Washington
06/05 11:21PM: -126 / +116
06/05 11:22PM: -125 / +116
06/06 12:45AM: -128 / +119
06/06 12:45AM: -128 / +121
06/06 12:52AM: -126 / +122
06/06 01:35AM: -120 / +116
06/06 01:47AM: -118 / +116
06/06 01:47AM: -118 / +117
06/06 01:56AM: -120 / +117
06/06 01:59AM: -117 / +113
06/06 01:59AM: -117 / +116
06/06 01:59AM: -117 / +113
06/06 01:59AM: -117 / +114
06/06 02:12AM: -120 / +116
06/06 02:12AM: -120 / +117
06/06 02:12AM: -120 / +116
06/06 04:19AM: -123 / +119
06/06 07:25AM: -121 / +117
06/06 08:20AM: -120 / +117
06/06 08:56AM: -121 / +117
06/06 08:56AM: -121 / +120
06/06 08:56AM: -121 / +117
06/06 09:15AM: -120 / +117
06/06 09:17AM: -117 / +114
06/06 09:17AM: -117 / +113
06/06 09:24AM: -116 / +113
06/06 09:25AM: -113 / +111
06/06 09:25AM: -111 / +110
06/06 09:26AM: -110 / +104
06/06 09:26AM: -110 / +107
06/06 09:49AM: -109 / +107
06/06 09:49AM: -109 / +108
06/06 09:58AM: -110 / +107
06/06 09:58AM: -112 / +107
06/06 09:58AM: -112 / +110
06/06 09:59AM: -111 / +107
06/06 10:02AM: -110 / +107
06/06 10:10AM: -109 / +107
06/06 10:14AM: -110 / +107
06/06 10:16AM: -109 / +107
06/06 10:31AM: -110 / +107
06/06 10:32AM: -109 / +107
06/06 10:43AM: -108 / +107
06/06 10:48AM: -109 / +108
06/06 10:48AM: -109 / +107
06/06 10:48AM: -109 / +108
06/06 11:18AM: -110 / +109
06/06 11:18AM: -110 / +108
06/06 11:25AM: -111 / +108
so Washington is the play right mets moved .15 and Wahington only movein .08 is my test run here correct ??
Would you please correct me if I am looking at this wrong. My leans based on comparing Matchbook line to my book Bodog are as follows:
SF/FLA SF + 130 at Matchbook and + 115 at Bodog = FLA
NYM/WASH NYM -109 at Matchbook -115 at Bodog = Wash
Cubs/Cinn Cubs -118 at Matchbook -130 at Bodog = Cinn
Mil/Atl Milwaukee + 166 at Matchbook +155 at Bodog = ATL
Col/Stl Col -120 at Matchbook + 113 at Bodog = Col
Ariz/SD Ariz -125 at Matchbook -131 at Bodog = SD
TB/NYY TB + 183 at Matchbook + 170 at Bodog = NYY
Minn/Seattle Seattle+ 103 at Matchbook -103 at Bodog = Minn
Cle/CWS Cleve + 121 Matchbook + 114 at Bodog = CWS
LAA/DET Det -139 at Matchbook -150 at Bodog = LAA
TEX/BOS Texas +200 at Matchbook + 175 at Bodog = BOS
Would these be correct leans based on reading the lines?
Thanks for your insight
SF/FLA SF + 130 at Matchbook and + 115 at Bodog = FLA
NYM/WASH NYM -109 at Matchbook -115 at Bodog = Wash
Cubs/Cinn Cubs -118 at Matchbook -130 at Bodog = Cinn
Mil/Atl Milwaukee + 166 at Matchbook +155 at Bodog = ATL
Col/Stl Col -120 at Matchbook + 113 at Bodog = Col
Ariz/SD Ariz -125 at Matchbook -131 at Bodog = SD
TB/NYY TB + 183 at Matchbook + 170 at Bodog = NYY
Minn/Seattle Seattle+ 103 at Matchbook -103 at Bodog = Minn
Cle/CWS Cleve + 121 Matchbook + 114 at Bodog = CWS
LAA/DET Det -139 at Matchbook -150 at Bodog = LAA
TEX/BOS Texas +200 at Matchbook + 175 at Bodog = BOS
Would these be correct leans based on reading the lines?
Thanks for your insight
No. You're simply shopping for lines. What I'm doing is capitalizing on bad lines (when the line is worse than Matchbook).
Look at the Matchbook line for your team. Now look at the Bodog line. 95% of the time, the Matchbook line will be better value (i.e. +198 to +195 or -125 to -130). The other 5% are bet triggers.
so we have all 4 in one post
Rule #1
Matchbook always has the best line for both sides. If they don't, go to the other book and bet that line. It's a winner.
Rule #2
Matchbook needs action on both sides to function. It's an exchange. If they aren't taking action on one side of the game (throwing out a ridiculous line that's nowhere close to .01), bet on that team. It's a winner.
RULE #3 - Watch 5Dimes
All books use .10 lines, except for Matchbook which is an exchange. However, in an exchange, you simply can't put down whatever bet you want. It has to be matched to be accepted.
There is one book (excluding Pinnacle's .08 lines) that feature lines less than .10 where your bet is instantly accepted. That's 5dimes, and that's only overnight.
If you're a professional bettor looking for the cheapest lines where you can put a large amount on one side and allow it to be accepted, you would go to 5Dimes, and you would bet overnight.
5Dimes changes overnight lines back to .10 around 9:00am EST. They frequently move the line in favor of one team as money has come in on this team overnight. Bet on that team.
Here's the PHI-SDG game (this would indicate a PHI bet)
06/03 12:20AM: +106 / -111
06/03 07:56AM: +100 / -110
Here's the CLE-MIN game (this would indicate a CLE bet)
06/02 11:53PM: -107 / +102
06/03 08:47AM: -114 / +104
Make sure the line move is significant. When the line moves 3 points in one team's favor, and 2 points in the other team's favor is not significant.
RULE #4
Remember the opening number.
Look at the opening number. Now look at how the line has moved. If the opening number was the best number for the team, and since they've moved the line far away from that team, bet that team.
I'll explain with games from yesterday.
Line History:
Jamaica
Game:
New York Mets
vs
Washington Nationals
MONEYLINES
06/04 04:10PM: +113 / -123
06/05 08:02AM: +111 / -121
06/05 08:49AM: +108 / -118
06/05 08:54AM: +105 / -115
06/05 10:50AM: +104 / -114
06/05 11:23AM: +103 / -113
06/05 11:23AM: +102 / -112
06/05 11:25AM: +101 / -111
06/05 01:38PM: +100 / -110
06/05 05:21PM: -101 / -109
06/05 06:24PM: -103 / -107
06/05 06:54PM: -105 / -105
06/05 07:01PM: -106 / -104
BetJamaica is one of the 5 books to offer afternoon lines, by that I mean lines that are available 4:00 the day before. Them and Pinnacle are the only reduced juice books to offer this, TheGreek and CRIS/Bookmaker offer 20 cent lines.
The number they opened with for the Mets was +113. Now look at the line movement. Never again did that line hit +113. The Mets won in extras.
I wanted to point out the difference between "sharp" line movement and "public" line movement.
Sharp movement happens during two times - once the line opens in the afternoon (at Pinnacle/CRIS/Olympic) and overnight. Public line movement happens hours before the game.
I'm not going to be posting "plays" and tracking a record. I just want to give information that you can use for analysis like I do.
For example, I've decided to bet on Arizona tonight using the rules.
Arizona
Line opened at -114 at BetJam, already up to -129
Steady ascending movement, no moves back to SDG
5Dimes .05 line was -120, when changed to .10 this morning it was -130
Bad line at Wager Street (-120) compared to Matchbook (-125)
Rule #1
Matchbook always has the best line for both sides. If they don't, go to the other book and bet that line. It's a winner.
Rule #2
Matchbook needs action on both sides to function. It's an exchange. If they aren't taking action on one side of the game (throwing out a ridiculous line that's nowhere close to .01), bet on that team. It's a winner.
RULE #3 - Watch 5Dimes
All books use .10 lines, except for Matchbook which is an exchange. However, in an exchange, you simply can't put down whatever bet you want. It has to be matched to be accepted.
There is one book (excluding Pinnacle's .08 lines) that feature lines less than .10 where your bet is instantly accepted. That's 5dimes, and that's only overnight.
If you're a professional bettor looking for the cheapest lines where you can put a large amount on one side and allow it to be accepted, you would go to 5Dimes, and you would bet overnight.
5Dimes changes overnight lines back to .10 around 9:00am EST. They frequently move the line in favor of one team as money has come in on this team overnight. Bet on that team.
Here's the PHI-SDG game (this would indicate a PHI bet)
06/03 12:20AM: +106 / -111
06/03 07:56AM: +100 / -110
Here's the CLE-MIN game (this would indicate a CLE bet)
06/02 11:53PM: -107 / +102
06/03 08:47AM: -114 / +104
Make sure the line move is significant. When the line moves 3 points in one team's favor, and 2 points in the other team's favor is not significant.
RULE #4
Remember the opening number.
Look at the opening number. Now look at how the line has moved. If the opening number was the best number for the team, and since they've moved the line far away from that team, bet that team.
I'll explain with games from yesterday.
Line History:
Jamaica
Game:
New York Mets
vs
Washington Nationals
MONEYLINES
06/04 04:10PM: +113 / -123
06/05 08:02AM: +111 / -121
06/05 08:49AM: +108 / -118
06/05 08:54AM: +105 / -115
06/05 10:50AM: +104 / -114
06/05 11:23AM: +103 / -113
06/05 11:23AM: +102 / -112
06/05 11:25AM: +101 / -111
06/05 01:38PM: +100 / -110
06/05 05:21PM: -101 / -109
06/05 06:24PM: -103 / -107
06/05 06:54PM: -105 / -105
06/05 07:01PM: -106 / -104
BetJamaica is one of the 5 books to offer afternoon lines, by that I mean lines that are available 4:00 the day before. Them and Pinnacle are the only reduced juice books to offer this, TheGreek and CRIS/Bookmaker offer 20 cent lines.
The number they opened with for the Mets was +113. Now look at the line movement. Never again did that line hit +113. The Mets won in extras.
I wanted to point out the difference between "sharp" line movement and "public" line movement.
Sharp movement happens during two times - once the line opens in the afternoon (at Pinnacle/CRIS/Olympic) and overnight. Public line movement happens hours before the game.
I'm not going to be posting "plays" and tracking a record. I just want to give information that you can use for analysis like I do.
For example, I've decided to bet on Arizona tonight using the rules.
Arizona
Line opened at -114 at BetJam, already up to -129
Steady ascending movement, no moves back to SDG
5Dimes .05 line was -120, when changed to .10 this morning it was -130
Bad line at Wager Street (-120) compared to Matchbook (-125)
Royals vs Bluejays
Here is one more circumstance that can be a bit confusing...
<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th colspan="2">TIME</th><th style="width: 75px;">AWAY</th><th style="width: 75px;">HOME</th></tr><tr><td>06/05</td><td>10:28 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+153</td><td style="text-align: center;">-163</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>12:33 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+155</td><td style="text-align: center;">-160</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>12:54 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+157</td><td style="text-align: center;">-162</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>01:31 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+159</td><td style="text-align: center;">-165</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>03:24 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+160</td><td style="text-align: center;">-167</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>07:43 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+164</td><td style="text-align: center;">-171</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>07:50 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+166</td><td style="text-align: center;">-173</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>07:54 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+169</td><td style="text-align: center;">-176</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>08:12 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+162</td><td style="text-align: center;">-172</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>09:56 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+160</td><td style="text-align: center;">-170</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>10:03 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+158</td><td style="text-align: center;">-168</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>11:30 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+152</td><td style="text-align: center;">-162</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>11:48 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+149</td><td style="text-align: center;">-159</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>11:50 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+147</td><td style="text-align: center;">-157</td></tr></tbody></table>
the green shows where it changed from nickel to dime line, and it moved significantly towards the bluejays making them the play...... however if you look at the red it moves significantly back towards the royals.... would this indicate a "no play"?
Here is one more circumstance that can be a bit confusing...
<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th colspan="2">TIME</th><th style="width: 75px;">AWAY</th><th style="width: 75px;">HOME</th></tr><tr><td>06/05</td><td>10:28 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+153</td><td style="text-align: center;">-163</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>12:33 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+155</td><td style="text-align: center;">-160</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>12:54 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+157</td><td style="text-align: center;">-162</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>01:31 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+159</td><td style="text-align: center;">-165</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>03:24 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+160</td><td style="text-align: center;">-167</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>07:43 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+164</td><td style="text-align: center;">-171</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>07:50 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+166</td><td style="text-align: center;">-173</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>07:54 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+169</td><td style="text-align: center;">-176</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>08:12 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+162</td><td style="text-align: center;">-172</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>09:56 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+160</td><td style="text-align: center;">-170</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>10:03 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+158</td><td style="text-align: center;">-168</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>11:30 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+152</td><td style="text-align: center;">-162</td></tr><tr><td>06/06</td><td>11:48 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+149</td><td style="text-align: center;">-159</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/06</td><td>11:50 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+147</td><td style="text-align: center;">-157</td></tr></tbody></table>
the green shows where it changed from nickel to dime line, and it moved significantly towards the bluejays making them the play...... however if you look at the red it moves significantly back towards the royals.... would this indicate a "no play"?
I am going by Rule 1 that shows me if my book has a line worse than the Matchbook line, such as SF/Wash where SF is +130 at Matchbook and only +115 at Bodog than assuming Matchbook is the sharper line I should bet Washington at my book because Matchbook is showing me that Washington is drawing less action than SF.
