Just to give another OBJECTIVE view on who is winning and who will win, what about THE USA TODAY?
Bush's approval rating slipping
Poll: It's lowest since July, but race still tied
By Susan Page
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush and Sen. John Kerry head toward their third and final televised debate tonight with voters increasingly pessimistic about the economy, the war in Iraq and the battle against terrorism, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.
Unease about the country's direction has eroded Bush's job approval rating into dangerous territory for an incumbent president. And Kerry holds a decided advantage on the domestic issues that will be the focus of their last face-to-face encounter.
Even so, voters' judgment by 45% to 30% that Kerry did better than Bush in their second debate Friday didn't significantly change the contest between them.
The poll, taken Saturday and Sunday, puts Kerry at 49% and Bush at 48% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%. That's almost unchanged from the Gallup survey taken a week earlier.
Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush each had 48%. In the 17 states that both campaigns see as most competitive, Kerry was at 48%, Bush at 45%.
The debate Wednesday is the last chance for voters to see the candidates side-by-side — and the main chance for the candidates to change the dynamics of the campaign in its final, frenetic three weeks.
The 90-minute forum, at Arizona State University in Tempe, begins at 9 p.m. ET.
“We see very strong momentum to John Kerry nationally, particularly in the battleground states,” says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster. He says the debates have given Kerry an opportunity to outline his proposals and raise questions about Bush's course.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says growing concern about terrorism, Iraq and the economy hasn't boosted voters' trust in Kerry to handle those issues. Bush retains an advantage of 17 points on handling terrorism, 7 points on Iraq.
But Bush's approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president's re-election prospects — has dropped to 47%, the lowest since July. Anything below 50% is considered a red flag for incumbents.
Also in the poll:
•Nearly two of three voters call the economy only fair or poor. A plurality says it's getting worse. In September, a plurality said it was getting better.
•Attitudes about Iraq are as negative as they were in May, the previous low point — a time soon after photos of abused Iraqi prisoners had been released and an American contractor beheaded. A 54% majority now says the war wasn't worth it.
Confidence that the United States is winning the war on terror also slipped a bit, though a majority still express satisfaction with how it's going.
</B>•Kerry is preferred on almost every domestic issue over Bush, with an edge of 29 points on the environment, 19 points on health care, 13 points on the federal budget deficit. He holds an advantage on handling Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy.</B>
The exception: taxes. One in four voters predict Bush will raise federal income taxes if he wins the election. Twice as many say that of Kerry.
Does anyone REALLY think Bush will WIN or TIE in tonight's debate?
THE SHRINK
Bush's approval rating slipping
Poll: It's lowest since July, but race still tied
By Susan Page
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush and Sen. John Kerry head toward their third and final televised debate tonight with voters increasingly pessimistic about the economy, the war in Iraq and the battle against terrorism, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.
Unease about the country's direction has eroded Bush's job approval rating into dangerous territory for an incumbent president. And Kerry holds a decided advantage on the domestic issues that will be the focus of their last face-to-face encounter.
Even so, voters' judgment by 45% to 30% that Kerry did better than Bush in their second debate Friday didn't significantly change the contest between them.
The poll, taken Saturday and Sunday, puts Kerry at 49% and Bush at 48% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%. That's almost unchanged from the Gallup survey taken a week earlier.
Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush each had 48%. In the 17 states that both campaigns see as most competitive, Kerry was at 48%, Bush at 45%.
The debate Wednesday is the last chance for voters to see the candidates side-by-side — and the main chance for the candidates to change the dynamics of the campaign in its final, frenetic three weeks.
The 90-minute forum, at Arizona State University in Tempe, begins at 9 p.m. ET.
“We see very strong momentum to John Kerry nationally, particularly in the battleground states,” says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster. He says the debates have given Kerry an opportunity to outline his proposals and raise questions about Bush's course.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says growing concern about terrorism, Iraq and the economy hasn't boosted voters' trust in Kerry to handle those issues. Bush retains an advantage of 17 points on handling terrorism, 7 points on Iraq.
But Bush's approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president's re-election prospects — has dropped to 47%, the lowest since July. Anything below 50% is considered a red flag for incumbents.
Also in the poll:
•Nearly two of three voters call the economy only fair or poor. A plurality says it's getting worse. In September, a plurality said it was getting better.
•Attitudes about Iraq are as negative as they were in May, the previous low point — a time soon after photos of abused Iraqi prisoners had been released and an American contractor beheaded. A 54% majority now says the war wasn't worth it.
Confidence that the United States is winning the war on terror also slipped a bit, though a majority still express satisfaction with how it's going.
</B>•Kerry is preferred on almost every domestic issue over Bush, with an edge of 29 points on the environment, 19 points on health care, 13 points on the federal budget deficit. He holds an advantage on handling Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy.</B>
The exception: taxes. One in four voters predict Bush will raise federal income taxes if he wins the election. Twice as many say that of Kerry.
Does anyone REALLY think Bush will WIN or TIE in tonight's debate?
THE SHRINK
