Monday 6/13: 0-1 -$472
YTD Record: 21-11 +$2,071.38
Had a full half run of line value on the team total which closed at 3.5 and the ML did drop as predicted. Sometimes even when you can read a line it's prudent to pass if you're not confident in the play... which is what I did with the Cubs ML. You can't lose a bet you never make... there will always be other opportunities. I'm glad I limited the damage on this one. Onto the next...
| 165541004-1 | 6/14/2016 0:07 AM | Spread | 120.19 | 185.09 | Pregame Baseball 901 Chicago Cubs -1½ +154 for Game |
| 165541004-2 | 6/14/2016 0:07 AM | Money Line | 345.81 | 320.19 | Pregame Baseball 901 Chicago Cubs -108 for Game |
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This might look confusing... essentially what I built is the equivalent of a -0.75 soccer line:
-If the Cubs lose, I lose $466.
-If the Cubs win by exactly 1, I win $200.
-If the Cubs win by multiple runs, I win $505.28.
I'll grade this all as one wager where I still profit on a one run win but get a bonus if we win by more. It's nice to get creative and use numbers to your advantage.
Chicago Cubs ML/RL risking $466 to win $200 or $505.28
The Cubs have the advantage in most areas tomorrow (Lackey/Gonzalez) and at around a PK ML and juicy RL, I'll bite.
Thanks, CJ! Good luck to you as well.
We've got things working in our favor here today. Just a few:
-Wind blowing in from LCF at almost 12 MPH
-Jake's history against most of the Pitt lineup
-Marte still out along with their other injuries
-Pitt played a night game last night in NY before flying in for this early afternoon game
-Jake has pitched MUCH better than some recent box scores have indicated... his stuff is there and he is going to have a dominant start soon (hopefully today)
Liriano has been a mess since we shelled him on 5/13 with his K rate trending below 9/9IP and walk rate reaching 5.5/9IP since then... so I can't disagree too strongly with your RL play but with our weaker lineup (stomach flu for Bryant and rest for Heyward) and the weather I thought I'd eliminate that side of the equation and stick with Jake. I hope you cash nonetheless!
| 165639504-1 | 6/18/2016 1:51 PM | Team Total | 560.00 | 400.00 | Pregame Baseball 907 Pittsburgh Pirates team total under 3 -140 for Game |
| 165640505-1 | 6/18/2016 2:28 PM | Future/Prop | 500.00 | 500.00 | Pregame MLB - Prop 907 Player ML most total bases Anthony Rizzo +100 (polanco vs rizzo) |
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Pittsburgh Pirates TT Under 3 -140 risking $560 to win $400
Anthony Rizzo Total Bases +100 vs. Gregory Polanco risking $500 to win $500
Pittsburgh's lineup was released and Polanco is not starting so the Rizzo TB wager will be graded as "No Action"... damn.
The TT line moved greatly (against me), so I added on:
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Which brings the total to:
Pittsburgh Pirates TT Under 3 -128.333 risking $770 to win $600
The TT line moved greatly (against me), so I added on:
| 165644820-1 | 6/18/2016 5:22 PM | Team Total | 210.00 | 200.00 | Pregame Baseball 907 Pittsburgh Pirates team total under 3 -105 for Game |
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Which brings the total to:
Pittsburgh Pirates TT Under 3 -128.333 risking $770 to win $600
Well... what tonight could've been. My Rizzo TB wager goes off as "No Action" with Polanco not starting and my book didn't have a TB matchup for Bryant today which is very rare. I advised my buddy to hit KB over Cutch for the max on his book and he did. BOTH guys end up homering and I could've had an easy 2-0 + $1,000 on total base match-ups! Damn...
I know some will say we were lucky to push the TT with 5 scoreless innings to end the game but Cutch's RBI single was a weak grounder right to a normally positioned second baseman that only made it through due to the shift and the third run was a HBP on the toe of a foot. I'll take the push, clean my hands and move onto the next one.
Saturday 6/18: 0-0 +$0
YTD Record: 23-11 +$2,771.38
I made another -1 line:
Chicago Cubs -109.523 risking $328.57 to win $300
Full disclosure: I'm going to the game with my buddy whose birthday was yesterday and he has been pressing hard for some kind of action... As a result, I'm somewhat forcing this game with the mentality that I had to find something rather than using the appropriate mindset of seeing if there is anything worth wagering on... just a word of caution.
Chicago Cubs -109.523 risking $328.57 to win $300
Full disclosure: I'm going to the game with my buddy whose birthday was yesterday and he has been pressing hard for some kind of action... As a result, I'm somewhat forcing this game with the mentality that I had to find something rather than using the appropriate mindset of seeing if there is anything worth wagering on... just a word of caution.
