| 165302123-1 | 6/4/2016 1:02 PM | Team Total | 409.50 | 350.00 | Pregame Baseball 902 Chicago Cubs team total over 5½ -117 for Game |
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Usually when I check the card and see a price like this I scratch it off as an insta-pass because prices this high can get messy (was -106 when I started researching) but after looking into this I don't know how Escobar will survive today... and their pen won't follow him up with anything special. Looking for a nice big crooked number in one inning today.
Chicago Cubs TT Over 5.5 -117 risking $409.50 to win $350
This line closed at 6 so the value was there but it was still a loss by the hook.
Saturday 6/4: 0-1 -$409.50
YTD Record: 15-5 +$2,474.38
The total $ includes a subtraction of -$1.49 from the last -1 run I calculated. I was off a couple decimals and lost a few cents on the push rather than breaking even so I'm taking that off the total so everything matches up with my spreadsheets.
Saturday 6/4: 0-1 -$409.50
YTD Record: 15-5 +$2,474.38
The total $ includes a subtraction of -$1.49 from the last -1 run I calculated. I was off a couple decimals and lost a few cents on the push rather than breaking even so I'm taking that off the total so everything matches up with my spreadsheets.
| 165351547-1 | 6/5/2016 11:30 PM | Spread | 399.00 | 300.00 | Pregame Baseball 901 Chicago Cubs -1½ -133 for Game |
| 165351547-2 | 6/5/2016 11:30 PM | Team Total | 371.00 | 350.00 | Pregame Baseball 901 Chicago Cubs team total over 5 -106 for Game |
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Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 risking $399 to win $300
Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 5 -106 risking $371 to win $350
I'm finally locking in some overnight's as I've been consistently able to identify value compared to the closing line but could've beaten prices by even more if I didn't wait to book. It's tough when Wrigley totals aren't posted on the overnight lines and I work full-time. We're in Philly for tomorrow's game so I had a chance to take a peek at these tonight.
Lets go cubbiesRemeber this play? KB homered and we won the TB prop 4-1... well, 10 days later, we've got an exact repeat of the same hitters and same pitchers... but this time KB is on the road and has equity in an extra at bat... and the price is much lower?!?!? Okay, thanks... I'll hit this for the prop max of $500:
| 165357404-1 | 6/6/2016 12:26 PM | Future/Prop | 525.00 | 500.00 | Pregame MLB - Prop 901 Player ML most total bases Kris Bryant -105 (bryant vs franco) |
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Kris Bryant Most Total Bases -105 vs. Maikel Franco risking $525 to win $500
| 165358109-1 | 6/6/2016 2:27 PM | Team Total | 464.00 | 400.00 | Pregame Baseball 902 Philadelphia Phillies team total under 3 -116 for Game |
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Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Under 3 -116 risking $464 to win $400
Yet another one... I just saw the released Phillies lineup and I actually laughed a bit... have to play this.
With line closing time approaching it appears this attempt to lock in value early has been a clear success. Here are the current lines and the difference between them and my earlier prices:
Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 -133..... now -165..... +32 cents of line value
Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 5 -106..... now 5.5 +101..... +.5 RUNS of line value
Kris Bryant Most Total Bases -105 vs. Maikel Franco..... now -140..... +35 cents of line value
Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Under 3 -116..... now -130..... +14 cents of line value
The Cubs may lose 10-0 tonight but getting this far ahead of the closing line on prices is equivalent to printing money long-term regardless of what happens in a one event sample size. Now I can sit sit back, relax and root for my boys knowing I made smart wagers. Go Cubs!
Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 -133..... now -165..... +32 cents of line value
Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 5 -106..... now 5.5 +101..... +.5 RUNS of line value
Kris Bryant Most Total Bases -105 vs. Maikel Franco..... now -140..... +35 cents of line value
Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Under 3 -116..... now -130..... +14 cents of line value
The Cubs may lose 10-0 tonight but getting this far ahead of the closing line on prices is equivalent to printing money long-term regardless of what happens in a one event sample size. Now I can sit sit back, relax and root for my boys knowing I made smart wagers. Go Cubs!
Monday 6/6: 3-1 +$686
YTD Record: 18-8 +$2,328.38
Couldn't be more pissed about going 3-1 considering the loss was TT Under 3 for PHI and we had them shutout into the 9th. Even after Grimm served up cheese for the push our stud closer Rondon serves up one of his own... wow. Haven't been able to get a nice clean dominant game lately. Onto the next.
Agreed. The Soler to the DL portion of my statement is an assumption, but Almora being the guy has been confirmed internally. He has left the Iowa team and is on standby waiting on word of Soler's injury. I just assume they'll play things safe given Soler's history of leg injuries and how hammy's are dangerous and can easily be tweaked. Plus, we can afford to wait for Soler to fully recover.
In regards to Almora, I don't expect this to be a permanent call up but we will need to add him to the 40-man this year at some point or else he would be Rule 5 eligible so we might as well get his feet wet with some experience. He has PLUS PLUS defense and he has done a nice job of hitting for average this year but he still needs to work on his plate discipline as he almost never takes walks. He also still has plenty of room for development in the power department. The positives are that he doesn't strike out much and makes a ton of contact. He just needs to learn to wait for his pitch and take some strikes if he won't be able to produce good contact with them... he's still working on implementing the "Cubs Way".
This glimpse into the future will be fun and having him and Heyward together in the OF will be a sight to behold. I wouldn't put it past crazy Joe to go with two outfielders and five infielders in certain situations with those guys out there... we will see!
In regards to Almora, I don't expect this to be a permanent call up but we will need to add him to the 40-man this year at some point or else he would be Rule 5 eligible so we might as well get his feet wet with some experience. He has PLUS PLUS defense and he has done a nice job of hitting for average this year but he still needs to work on his plate discipline as he almost never takes walks. He also still has plenty of room for development in the power department. The positives are that he doesn't strike out much and makes a ton of contact. He just needs to learn to wait for his pitch and take some strikes if he won't be able to produce good contact with them... he's still working on implementing the "Cubs Way".
This glimpse into the future will be fun and having him and Heyward together in the OF will be a sight to behold. I wouldn't put it past crazy Joe to go with two outfielders and five infielders in certain situations with those guys out there... we will see!
