jcubs55's Season Long Chicago Cubs Thread!

[jcubs55]

165837371-1	6/26/2016 9:49 PM	Spread	390.00	300.00	Pregame Baseball 955 Chicago Cubs -1½ -130 for Game
165837371-2	6/26/2016 9:49 PM	Team Total	555.00	500.00	Pregame Baseball 956 Cincinnati Reds team total under 3 -111 for Game

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My boys are struggling right now - no bones about it. It's been a combination of playing poorly and some bad luck but it'll turn and what a better opportunity for that than to head to Cincy. I was looking ahead planning to hit the Cubs in all three games in most ways (sides, Cubs TT overs, and TB matchups), but I actually think tomorrow's Cubs TT of 5 opened rather expensive against Straily who hasn't been too bad. I will continue to put my money behind Jake as I still don't think he's pitching to his full potential and said in press conferences after his last start that he will be making adjustments to attack hitters earlier in counts daring them to swing at his filthy stuff which will allow him to consistently get deeper into games. I know GABP is a hitter's park but I'll take my chances they don't get to 4 with Jake on the mound.

 

[jcubs55]

165844416-1	6/27/2016 11:02 AM	Future/Prop	625.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 955 Player ML most total bases Anthony Rizzo -125 (rizzo vs votto)
165844416-2	6/27/2016 11:02 AM	Future/Prop	600.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 955 Player ML most total bases Kris Bryant -120 (bryant vs bruce )

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I was also going to add onto the run line but it moved 15 cents... now I'm frustrated that I underbet it initially. I will continue to monitor lines to see if there are anymore opportunities.

 

[jcubs55]

165852177-1

6/27/2016 7:09 PM

Team Total

369.00

300.00

Pregame Baseball 955 Chicago Cubs team total over 5 -123 for Game

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[DribbleDrive]

165852177-1

6/27/2016 7:09 PM

Team Total

369.00

300.00

Pregame Baseball 955 Chicago Cubs team total over 5 -123 for Game

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Nice early hit in the Cubs team over, and I'll go out on a limb and say you'll win the Bryant total bases prop too. Need Jake to throw a couple scoreless innings and make sure bullpen holds on so you get the RL win.

 

[jcubs55]

Monday: 3-2 -$80

YTD Record: 30-22 -$776.54

I am in absolute shock that I just lost money on this game... KB sets history with 3 HR and 2 Doubles for 16 total bases... The Cubs plate 11 to easily win the TT and cover the RL winning virtually all game... and then with a 2 base lead for Rizzo heading into the bottom of the 9th the Cubs sit down Rondon to bring in 40 year old gas can journeyman to serve up a first row homer to Votto and I go from 4-1 up over $1,000 and back in the black for the season to losing some vig which can also be attributed to my initial underbets that I got priced out on once the line moved too much in my favor. Max tilt doesn't even begin to describe it!

 

[jcubs55]

165862590-1	6/28/2016 11:40 AM	Future/Prop	500.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 903 Player ML most total bases Anthony Rizzo +100 (rizzo vs votto)
165862590-2	6/28/2016 11:40 AM	Future/Prop	575.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 903 Player ML most total bases Kris Bryant -115 (bryant vs bruce)
165862661-1	6/28/2016 11:53 AM	Team Total	650.00	500.00	Pregame Baseball 903 Chicago Cubs team total over 5 -130 for Game

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Back to the same well today. As previously mentioned I had been planning to ride the Cubs offense in every game this series to breakout of their lull in this hitter-friendly park. The wind is blowing out at 12 MPH today and Lamb's SO/BB ratio and FIP are alarming... especially against this lineup that loves to wait out pitchers.

Bruce is 3/17 against Lester (.176) and a career .230 hitter against lefties (.249 overall)... KB just had 16 bases last night... don't overthink this one!

Votto is 4/15 (.267) against Lester. Rizzo gets to face a much more forgiving slinger who he has doubled off of in 3 ABs... I'll take my chances again here at even money.

 

[jcubs55]

165867142-1

6/28/2016 7:07 PM

Spread

420.00

300.00

Pregame Baseball 903 Chicago Cubs -1½ -140 for Game

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[Riv34]

Hammel & baez!!!

 

[jcubs55]

Hammel & baez!!!

Wasn't that nice?!?!?!

Finally, a much needed break comes through.

Tuesday: 3-0-1 +$1,300

YTD Record: 33-22 +$523.46

 

[jcubs55]

I was looking ahead planning to hit the Cubs in all three games in most ways (sides, Cubs TT overs, and TB matchups)

I didn't follow through with this plan for the Reds series in the third and final game and it resulted in me leaving money on the table... RL and TTO covers in all three games of the series. I need to stick with my initial reads and ride them through.

One for this weekend:

165904752-1

6/30/2016 3:34 PM

Money Line

600.00

500.00

Pregame Baseball 3803 CUBS SERIES -120 for Game

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I was waiting for lineups on tonight's game and now that they are out I like our chances and definitely like Jake over Bartolo in Game 3 (this series is only for the first three games of this four game series). The goal here is to win tonight first to get in a -120 spot with Jake on Saturday... And if we lose tonight we still have a chance to beat deGrom tomorrow to setup the same scenario.

 

[jcubs55]

165904980-1	6/30/2016 3:48 PM	Future/Prop	550.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 905 Player ML most total bases Anthony Rizzo -110 (rizzo vs walker)
165905001-1	6/30/2016 3:50 PM	Money Line	700.00	500.00	Pregame Baseball 905 Chicago Cubs -140 for Game

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I like Lackey to shut the Mets soft lineup down tonight and am tempted on the TT under 3 at +money... but I figure if that cashes the ML should have a good shot so I can avoid a double bet by sticking with the ML and having the safety net of the Cubs getting to Matz who is a huge question mark at the moment. I've read that he is reluctant to throw his slider due to the pain caused by his bone spur. I was on the Mets in his last start when he almost let an 8-0 lead evaporate. Hopefully he pitches tonight like he did in the 5th inning in Atlanta... and if not, I have faith in Lackey.

 

[jcubs55]

Thursday: 1-1 -$200

YTD Record: 34-23 +$323.46

That may have been the worst loss of the year... we get up early on the Bryant homer and Lackey cruises... until our best fielder has an out dead to rights and throws it away to give them the lead... then we strand 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the 9th and the heart of our order up... brutal.

 

[jcubs55]

165954532-1	7/2/2016 7:07 PM	Team Total	500.00	550.00	Pregame Baseball 908 New York Mets team total under 2½ +110 for Game
165954544-1	7/2/2016 7:08 PM	Future/Prop	600.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 907 Player ML most total bases Anthony Rizzo -120 (rizzo vs walker)
165954544-2	7/2/2016 7:08 PM	Future/Prop	500.00	500.00	Pregame MLB - Prop 907 Player ML most total bases Kris Bryant +100 (bryant vs cespedes)

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[jcubs55]

I thought the Mets team total was going to be 3 today and I had been planning to hit it for $1,000. I'm surprised it opened at 2.5 and actually trended downwards. I'm still playing the 2.5 price for half as much as I've mentioned I'll continue to back Jake... it's coming. There's good reason to think the turn may come tonight:

“Jake and I talked about it yesterday, I brought up some data actually and showed him exactly what’s going on,” Bosio said in an interview Wednesday morning with Brian Hanley and Zach Zaidman on 670. “I’d rather not (get specific), but it’s been addressed. It’s something we’re going to be working on on the side here in about an hour-and-a-half. It’s something that’s definitely fixable. He’s aware of it, and I’m aware of it and now we go attack it, get a game plan and set the stage for his start coming up in New York.
“It’s something that has to do mechanically, mentally and those things are fixable things. It’s a mental approach, which you talk about, you address it, you accept it and then you move forward and get a game plan.
“The hardest thing to do is to be critical of yourself in a time where things are going pretty good for him — lately, no. But like you said, a lot of guys are sitting with a (3.54 ERA in June) and having career months. Not for Jake. That’s not acceptable for Jake. That’s not acceptable for us. We’re going to game plan and try to get this thing tightened up. Hopefully we see some different results in his next start.”

 

[captn_jay]

Good luck jcubs55.

 

[jcubs55]

Saturday: 0-3 -$1,600

Series Wager: 0-1 -$600

YTD Record: 34-27 -$1,876.54

I was very, very close to passing this game altogether (locked in less than 10 minutes before first pitch) and instead held my nose and cliff-jumped with Jake again. OUCH! It looks like it's finally time to wave the white flag and pass all Arrieta starts until he shows that he's fixed his issues... which most likely means he'll throw a CGSO in his next start, ha.

 

[jcubs55]

Saturday: 0-2 -$1,000

Series Wager: 0-1 -$600

YTD Record: 34-26 -$1,276.54

Adjusted total. Came back to push the Rizzo TB prop. Walker's homer was off the foul pole which pushed that TB bet and scored 2 runs. Their other 2 runs came on a bloop single that Baez got a barehand on. Talk about a game of inches... the homer is a few further foul or if the bloop stays within reach the Mets land on 2 and the TT under cashes. That being said, Jake still definitely isn't sharp and I wouldn't have deserved to win that one anyway. Onward...

 

[jcubs55]

166037698-1

7/5/2016 11:20 AM

Team Total

605.00

500.00

Pregame Baseball 952 Chicago Cubs team total over 5 -121 for Game

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The wind will be 7-12 MPH so maybe not a huge factor but it will be blowing out so it can only help and not hurt. Temps will be into the mid 80s and feel like high 80's with some humidity, a low air density rating and a high heat index... balls should have no problem jumping off bats today.

Our home plate ump today is none other than Jerry Meals. In games with Jerry behind the plate, the over is 11-4 with an average of 10.5(!) runs scored per game. Pitchers have a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his games as a result of 7.6 walks per game and only 15.4 strikeouts... we should see a tight zone today.

The Cubs have faced Finnegan twice already this season. It took us awhile to figure him out the first time around as we only mustered 1 hit (but 5 walks) in 6.1 IP. We got to him the second time for 5 ER on 7 hits in just 4 innings. We will now see him for the third time this year which doesn't bode well for the pitcher. He has struggled his last three starts and his biggest issue is command: he is walking 4.6 hitters per 9 IP this year (4.2/9IP career). He only strikes out 6.4/9IP for a poor K/BB ratio of under 1.5 resulting in a season FIP of 5.28 (career 4.91). Couple these issues with Meals' tight zone and he could be in for a long day.

 

[jcubs55]

I was reluctant to have any plays today because I'm in a "missed the boat" spot, but this was a must play... the Cubs TTO and RL have covered the last four games against Cincy dating back to last week. I had planned to hit every game last series and didn't follow through. Now as I take the plunge my gut tells me we could see a "baseball gonna baseball" game today where even though all signs point to the Cubs offense, we could somehow find a way to blow this one.

I do think the Reds have a good shot to get to Lackey today and would consider recommending the game over 9 and Reds TTO 3.5 but I must follow my own rules and not fade the Cubs.

 

[indiana]

C/55...........lov the play...........BOL with your play..........indy