| 165434514-1 | 6/9/2016 11:31 PM | Team Total | 505.00 | 500.00 | Pregame Baseball 905 Chicago Cubs team total over 5 -101 for Game |
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Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 5 -101 risking $505 to win $500
I love these road team totals where we are guaranteed to bat in nine full innings and I have the opportunity to pluck overnight lines. After an off day we head to Atlanta to face Bud Norris. Norris is walking a jaw-dropping (in the worst way) 4.7 batters per 9IP this season (3.6BB/9IP for his career in over 1,000 IP)... that is a recipe for disaster against this patient Cubs lineup. What's more, Norris throws his four-seam fastball over 55% of the time when he's behind in the count. That should happen quite often tomorrow night and my boys should be able to jump on his fastball that has a whiff rate below 7%. Norris got knocked around in 5 starts early this year and was sent to the pen before returning to the rotation last week for a start in which he lasted 5 innings. He might not have much of a stamina at this time and the Cubs are notorious for working long at bats and driving up pitch counts... especially against those who lack control. If we end up chasing Norris from the game rather early, we'll get a taste of the subpar Atlanta pen. I like my chances here at such a low-juice price and I'm willing to stick my neck out a bit.
| 165442426-1 | 6/10/2016 3:26 PM | Spread | 556.00 | 400.00 | Pregame Baseball 905 Chicago Cubs -1½ -139 for Game |
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Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 -139 risking $556 to win $400
You may have seen this coming with the thinking that if we score a half dozen runs it's unlikely the Braves offense will be able to keep within one. I was waiting for lineups and now that they are both out I've locked this in.
This line just plummeted for some reason right after I hit it. Rather than run scared, I'll take another bill on this at the better price:
| 165442543-1 | 6/10/2016 3:36 PM | Spread | 124.00 | 100.00 | Pregame Baseball 905 Chicago Cubs -1½ -124 for Game |
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Adding: Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 -124 risking $124 to win $100
For a total of: Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 -136 risking $680 to win $500
Rizzo scratched with back tightness... there it is... Something had to be up with that line drop... Welp, we're already in a hole and the game hasn't even started. Hopefully the boys can come through. Baez moves from 3B to 1B to fill Rizzo's void and Kris slides to 3B. Almora heads out to LF.
| 165464535-1 | 6/11/2016 2:28 AM | Spread | 480.00 | 300.00 | Pregame Baseball 955 Chicago Cubs -1½ -160 for Game |
| 165464535-2 | 6/11/2016 2:28 AM | Team Total | 504.00 | 400.00 | Pregame Baseball 956 Atlanta Braves team total under 2½ -126 for Game |
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Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 -160 risking $480 to win $300
Atlanta Braves Team Total Under 2.5 -126 risking $504 to win $400
Jake pitched great last game - don't be mislead by the final stat line as Arizona benefited from a .900 BABIP... that's just an incredible statistical anomaly. He has had some sharp stuff over his last few outings and you have to start dreaming about a shutout when a pitcher like this is going up against an offense this weak. AJP has raked against him (somehow) but other than that the Braves don't have many numbers in their favor. If Jake can find and maintain a consistent release point early tomorrow tomorrow I think we've got a great shot at domination.
The Cubs H2H numbers against Wisler are gaudy. In only 14 PAs our hitters have 6 hits (1 2B & 3 HRs), 6 RBI, 3 walks, a HBP and only 2 Ks. He has been better this year than last but he's still not very intimidating.
| 165465625-1 | 6/11/2016 10:16 AM | Spread | 146.00 | 100.00 | Pregame Baseball 955 Chicago Cubs -1½ -146 for Game |
| 165465625-2 | 6/11/2016 10:16 AM | Team Total | 109.00 | 100.00 | Pregame Baseball 956 Atlanta Braves team total under 2½ -109 for Game |
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Added $100 more onto each of these as for the second day in a row the prices are moving against me... not used to this, but not gonna change the plan after yesterday's let down. If the Braves TT makes it to 3 the under will be the largest play in this thread so far.
| 165466285-1 | 6/11/2016 11:09 AM | Future/Prop | 440.00 | 400.00 | Pregame MLB - Prop 955 Player ML most total bases Kris Bryant -110 (bryant vs freeman) |
| 165466326-1 | 6/11/2016 11:12 AM | Future/Prop | 110.00 | 100.00 | Pregame MLB - Prop 955 Player ML most total bases Kris Bryant -110 (bryant vs freeman) |
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Kris Bryant Total Bases -110 vs. Freddie Freeman risking $550 to win $500
| 165516550-1 | 6/13/2016 0:08 AM | Team Total | 472.00 | 400.00 | Pregame Baseball 951 Chicago Cubs team total over 3 -118 for Game |
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Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 3 -118 risking $472 to win $400
I might regret not locking in the ML now as I can only see it dropping from here but this line really stinks and I haven't dug deep enough into the numbers to confirm my initial thoughts that the Cubs are worth a value bet here. Hendricks only gave up 2 hits and 0 runs in 6IP in his start against the Nats earlier this year while we tagged Scherzer for 4 HR and 7 ER. Maddon is/was also on record saying how he loves the way Hendricks matches up against the Nats lineup. That being said, I've got concerns about him getting smacked around a little bit tomorrow. Cubs TT is my only play thus far. If I add anything else I'll post once I've booked.
