Jack's select plays.

[JackDee]

ok, the lines moved my way, and I am actually going to bet 5% on Kalamaria +1.5 at 1.76. This line is the most ridiculous thing I ve seen all year, so much has the betting crowd been influenced by the (probably valid) rumours for panionios has fixed this game that not have they dropped the odds even further at 1.3 they are actually offering +1.5 goals for kalamaria, pinnacle that is, because the rest have moved it to +1.25. This is a downright stupid move by pinnacle. Even if the fix is in, the fix is in for a win boys and gals at pinnacle, panionios have got to win even by a tenth of a goal so to speak, nothing hence warrants letting your asses wide open with the 1.5 goal...

Win or lose, for me this is an example for me of how a line catering to the squares, or to put it more precisely to the market forces, let's itself wide open for "sharp" (I am not sharp...) action.

Game starts in about 15 minutes.

And i ll also take the over 2.25 for my test record in this game at 1.94

 

[Dante]

LETS pray for the Push Jack..you had a good call going into the 70th min or something close to that 1-1 now


ill be very happy with a push

 

[res]

Jack, nice call on the Kalamaria + and the over. Sad to say, I didnt get to see your post in time. Sunday mornings are bad for me with church and stuff.

Ended up with the push on the xanthi match so no harm there.

Took a bad beat with Lazio i the Serie A today, up 3-2 and yeild an own goal in the 93rd minute to draw.

I will be following you more closely niw that my schedule gives me more time. Wishing us the best. May the goals be with you.

 

[JackDee]

dante, we were on the right side buddy, a clean sheet first half, a goal from panathinaikos on the 63rd and it should have stayed this way weren't it for a late goal on the 82nd by Xanthi. If we'd opted for the chalk at 1.65 we d have had a winner, but the odds at 2.0 for the o/u 2 where too good to pass up. I am sorry you guys didn't get the kalamaria +goals (or the over) in time as it was an equally important bet in my pallete this weekend, but I had to wait for the line movement up until the last minute.

res, church (if it a christian church for me) is a good thing, worth missing a few bets. Seeing that you had taken my suggestion for the under, i wished we could have won that too, but a push is not that bad either.

Aek predictably won straight up, I should have been bolder with the handicap.

The bet I feel really proud about though, is the kalamaria handicap where we took advantage of game handicapping over public reaction. As ofi won too, most of the gamblers betting on the "fix" angle won here with panionios too (and they were lucky to do so, because nowhere during the game was the fix scenario validated), albeit at very small odds (AND whatever little limits the bookmakers allowed them to bet) but the contrarian approach here proved more profitable and justified what I wrote 100%:

"ok, the lines moved my way, and I am actually going to bet 5% on Kalamaria +1.5 at 1.76. This line is the most ridiculous thing I ve seen all year, so much has the betting crowd been influenced by the (probably valid) rumours for panionios has fixed this game that not have they dropped the odds even further at 1.3 they are actually offering +1.5 goals for kalamaria, pinnacle that is, because the rest have moved it to +1.25. This is a downright stupid move by pinnacle. Even if the fix is in, the fix is in for a win boys and gals at pinnacle, panionios have got to win even by a tenth of a goal so to speak, nothing hence warrants letting your asses wide open with the 1.5 goal...
Win or lose, for me this is an example for me of how a line catering to the squares, or to put it more precisely to the market forces, let's itself wide open for "sharp" (I am not sharp...) action."

Excuse my self quoting here.


So a good betting weekend overall culminating after a good week with the uefa choices, and by far making up for whatever small loses of last week. With the uefa games, going 6 wins and 2 pushes.

Will update the records soon.

 

[JackDee]

Main Record
38-3-11 +84.132%


Last weekend:

3.5% on Valencia Loss

kalamaria +1 1.83 3.5% Push

Olympiakos Piraeus FC - Atromitos
Atromitos +2 at 1.68 3.5% Loss

Olympiakos under at 2.08 2.5% Loss

OFI Kreta - Panionios
Panionios +0.5 2.05 3.5% Won

Aek at 1.15 over Akratitos for 5% Won

aek -1.75 over Akratitos for 2% Won

This weekend:
74.607 78.282 79.032
Xanthi Panathinaikos Under 2 at 2.0 Push.

Aek over Levadiakos at 1.2 for 6.5% Won

Kalamaria +1.5 at 1.76 5% Won


Betting Record 2
32-3-25 +5.7975% ( 14-1-6 5% bets, 20-2-21 2.5% bets)


Bolton pk at 2.0 one and a half units Loss
Charlton 2.4 pinnacle one unit Won

Uefa Cup:

Rapid pk at 1.77 Push

Sevilla - 0.75 at 1.85 Won

Basel Under 2.5 at 1.65 Won

Rapid Under 2.5 at 1.63 Won


Test Record
9-4, +17.2%

Panionios-PAOK over 2 at 1.935 for 2.5% Loss

Uefa Cup:
Sevilla Zenit Over at 2.37 for 4% Won

Panionios Kalamaria over 2.25 at 1.94 for 2% Won

(Let me repeat here to avoid any discrepancies that for the test record"I am also going to be rasing my base stakes of 2% by 1% everytime i drop a bet in the test record, so this one i took for 4%, with 2 per cent being my base unit" The base unit remains 2%, whenever I judge it for 2.5% if i lose I will increase it to 4%, (+1.5%). As long as I win, all bets will be for the base unit at 2% unless I indicate otherwise)

 

[JackDee]

Taking olympiakos Iraklis over 2.25 at 2.15 tenbet.

 

[JackDee]

2-0 end result, cost us half our stake for the trial record, although with the playing field being more akeen to a swimming poool than anything else, it was a wonder we even got too goals, my bad as I should have checked the weather forecast, but we have had good weather all along I didn't realize it could have rained, actually poured.

Looking at the cl games (and finding no value whatsoever). Was thinking of making barca the game of the year tommorow and staking around 10% of my bankroll and had been estimating a line around 1.5-1.6, but at 1.3 it's a joke. Of course the value there lays with benfica but who'd go against arguably the best team of the world who, which is more important, have ample signs that they have the offciating on their side too, and are somewhat destined by uefa to become this year's success story?

The only bet I will be considering is a fade for juventus.

 

[JackDee]

One combo bet though for the euroleague, and you know "good" I am at it..., Macabbi at 1.26, Panathinaikos at 1.36, risking 4% at 1.7136.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

I hope barça gets it done, but won't be betting at those prices, just sit back and (hopefully) enjoy the match... go barçaaa !! In CL it's hard to get any value come quarterfinals... Unless fading pulic favs. Today i lean on Lyon +0'5... I hoped for +0'75.. maybe i will make some plays later. Let's try and cash something !

 

[AndySpainpick's]

on that combo asap !

 

[JackDee]

andy, if you are refering to my euroleague combo, I don't know if you follow this league at all, but try treading lightly because truth be told I ve been a brutal loser at the euroleague, so, despite having researched this pick from whatever possible angle I could (team strengths, officiating factors, home advantage, incentive for 3rd game (and hence more profits for the organisers), absences etc. etc.) and fully standing behind it, my track record for the euroleague is nothing to write home about.

I was leaning on lyon too, but I like Milan a lot...lol. The only public fav. I see worth fading is Juventus but the line should move considerably for me to bet it.

Another thing I have been contemplating is the under in the Barcelona game, with a very cautious barca to not accept a goal which will make things much more difficult (and who can and will play defence as they did with chelsea) and a benfica team going all defence I can't see why the under is favoured at 2.13? So that's a possible spot for me. I d have set these odds at about equal for the o/u. You guys agree with me on that? That seems a play that has taken up a lot of public expectation.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

The under i would play very small if at all. If barça scores benfica will be thrown all out attack, if benfica scores we will get a festival of scoring chances on both goals. I suspect barça or benfica score in the first half and then it's risky all the way. Will messi play ? thats a main factor too. I lean on the under, but small.

 

[JackDee]

Completely agree with your thinking Andy, but I thought Messi was definately not going to play, being doubtful changes the matter somewhat.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

it has the talent to go over, we need the 0-0 to stay long enough, if it was the first leg match it would prolly be an over match. I just enjoy these kind of games unless something sticks out.

 

[JackDee]

yeah, I do to, might post anything I see on betfair live.

 

[JackDee]

I missed betting the over just after milan goal but couldn't make it before lyon, so the odds have dropped considerably, I see this one having at least another goal, right now the odds for the over at betfair are 1.34, I ll wait until half time hopefully with no goals scored, and ride that over at whatever better odds I can get.

 

[JackDee]

7 mil. $ by the way matched for the 1x2 line, that's a lot of money innit?

 

[JackDee]

k. 1.39 suits me just fine. I am on it boys for 3.5% and a unit on the second betting record.

around 40k matched already so plenty of liquidity if you wanna jump in.

 

[JackDee]

andy I hope you got that combo after all.

A very good day overall.

The euroleague finally coming in nicely (at least in the posted plays)

The live bet on milan hitting for the cl.

Let me update the records now so I don't have to count everything later on.


Main Record
40-3-11 +88.3514%

Cl Live bet, halftime at betfair. Milan Lyon, Over 2.5 at 1.39 for 3.5% Won.

Euroleague Bball
Macabbi at 1.26, Panathinaikos at 1.36, risking 4% at 1.7136 Won


Betting Record 2
33-3-25 +7.5815% ( 14-1-6 5% bets, 21-2-21 2.5% bets)

Euroleague Bball
Macabbi at 1.26, Panathinaikos at 1.36, 1.7136 for 1 unit Won.


Test Record
9-5, +16.2%

olympiakos Iraklis over 2.25 at 2.15 tenbet Half Loss.

 

[JackDee]

Barcelona 1.25 for 5%.