Jack's select plays.

[JackDee]

ok one can't really brag about a 1.25 win, but a win's a win, and a 1.25% increase in the bankroll is good enough by me, on a day where as I ve been reading around (and I don't refer to my buddies here at the rx) people got hammered with barca, arsenal overs, benfica +goals and straight bets on juventus.

The only thing I regret is shying away from that under on which I was spot on...

Main Record
41-3-11 +89.8514%

 

[JackDee]

Euroleague Bball.

Olympiakos are well worth a shot here to Maccabi at home, had they been more attentive or experienced they would have even won away, I don't give them much hope in winning the series but at home to their raving fans they have great chances of winning, much more than the -1 at 1.94 would indicate. I am taking this for 3.5%. The only thing that could possibly mess this up is the officiating, which I don't have a clear angle on.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

nice hit on barça there, btw that under could have been in trouble had ronaldinho made the penalty

 

[Nylon]

Your on a roll Jack, keep it up!

I was actually rooting for the under in the Lyon match, only b/c I wanted Lyon to advance but your greek SPOOK created that double post banger goal! lol

 

[JackDee]

"nice hit on barça there, btw that under could have been in trouble had ronaldinho made the penalty"

thanks andy, that penalty could have of course offset the whole course of the game, although judging from benfica's reaction after the goal they were at no point prepared to let go of their super defensive tactics, not until a few tenths of minutes from gametime. But that's how it goes with the sport we love so much, they have successfully modelled goals (well, with some success ) on poisson probability functions, where of course the λ (greek lamda) factor makes all the difference there, but the rest is just a random poisson variable and that's how goals get scored, with their particular λ parameter (in this case favouring the under say) but thenafter randomly, chance does matter a lot in the short term. But all in all it was a very tight, defensive game (and pretty boring too..).

Nylon, thanks buddy. He,he...I wanted lyon too, damn...

Olympiakos with a clear victory for the euroleague (at last I am getting this to some profitability...and "getting" this altogether) prove our bet a winner, and hence onwards and upwards, I ll be really satisfied when I reach the doubling of the initial bankroll, and if of course, the goal I 've set out to do, (I ve already done so obviously in my own betting, and it's already been done if you put all the records together here too, but I am talking only about the main record) when I started reposting here. Actually the initial goal was to post as much or as little as I could manage timewise and turn some respectable % of the banroll back, but since I started posting more frenquently that changed to the more ambitious one of doubling the bankroll.

I d like to post an excel tabulation at some point, as much for the forum as for myself (because since I can be such a lazy fuck I don't actually bother keeping one myself regularly, at some point or other I do some review, so that'll get me going), I don't know how, I ve seen others do it though, how they paste a table that is.


Ok, enough said, for the moment let's concentrate on going towards that 100% instead of giving the bookmakers the money back, because it's gambling and as much as things can go well, they can start going against you too.


Main Record
42-3-11 +93.1414%

 

[JackDee]

I ll be taking the weekend off most probably but, there's one thing that sticks out in my local league. Aek pk at 1.93, this to me is a wrong line here. I am anything but a believer in this Aek team but regardless of this, the line here should have been set at -.25, and if the betting public and the bookmakers have got any sense it will move to this. So I am taking this for 4%. And I ll also be taking some short odds (around 1.5) double with olympiakos, and possibly another european favourite and/or panathinaikos for about 5%.

Looking ahead tenbet have already their odds out for the euroleague bball where I am going to be fading olympiakos vs. maccabi, and maccabi is priced at 1.22, I don't know if we are going to get a few other bookmakers offering early odds, but I don't see them going much higher than this (ladbrokes have it at 1.25 with a draw option), and I am planning to add this to another small odds parley.

I might add some epl games and a few european ones too.

 

[JackDee]

"Aek pk at 1.93, this to me is a wrong line here. "

Pinnacle already moved this to 1.89...

 

[res]

Jack, just hit AEK for the max at pinny, now down to pk -117. I must be a line mover, LOL.

FYI, gonna hit Crystal Palace in the Eng Championship match today. Pk and -.5 +111 is the safe line. I played the ML at +140. Worth a look as Leicester minus 2 key men and Crystal Palace in good shape for this one. Nothing huge, just a standard play for me.

May the goals be with us!

 

[JackDee]

res, how you doing buddy? I ll have a look at the game you are suggesting.Best of luck to us, I can't see aek losing away, not that easy to win, but losing is a very remote possibility here, pinnacle down to 1.84 as you said, as has done pretty much everyone else, except pointbet who stubbornly persist at 1.94, needless to say I still maintain that the correct odds here should be set at -.25

best of luck to us.

 

[JackDee]

res, bol with your crystal palace play, I can't find any advantage there myself, but that's just my non-expert opinion.

a few games from the british isles,

Blackburn pk at 2.08 (mansion, pointbet etc.)
Wigan at 2.04

leaning on aston Villa at 2.09, but haven't played it yet.

 

[JohnMolson]

Damn Palace has their work cut out for them now..allow a goal just before the halfucking: :Sad Face:

 

[res]

Jack
Was alot of movement right before start as alot of money came in on the other side. The late 1st half goal looks bad. Glad you laid off at this point.

Played CP to win 2-0 or 2-1 for small stakes just for kicks, maybe that will come through but not holding my breath.

 

[JackDee]

a few more boys,

I am taking olympiakos aigaleo under, I don't have the balls to bet this for my main record, but I ll take it for my test over/under record at 2.2 at vcbet.

I ll also bet 3% at my aussie buddies at centrebet chelsea at 1.28 and olympiakos at 1.15 double, at 1.472

 

[JackDee]

adding Olympiakos -1.75 at 1.75 for 2.5% (gamebookers, vcbet)

Ofi, panathinaikos double at 1.4 for 3%

panathinaikos and levadeikos (1.17, 1.5) 1.755 for 2%

and for my test record I am taking ionikos over at 2.5
kalamaria over at 2.2, levaidakos over at 2.5

 

[chriscol]

Jack, i have looked at sunday s Basketball: AEK - Marousi..some german books have AEK @ 1.65, pinny has this game as a pk and from what i see in the standings i also like Marousi...is Marousi a play at pinny?

 

[JackDee]

chriscol can you rephrase the question? I don't know what you mean. I can see pinnacle have a line at +2.5 1.96 for Maroussi, but I am absolutely (well not absolutely but pretty close) clueless when it comes to the local bball league, haven't placed a single bet on it all year long, and can't suggest anything if that's what you are asking.

 

[chriscol]

chriscol can you rephrase the question? I don't know what you mean. I can see pinnacle have a line at +2.5 1.96 for Maroussi, but I am absolutely (well not absolutely but pretty close) clueless when it comes to the local bball league, haven't placed a single bet on it all year long, and can't suggest anything if that's what you are asking.

no worries, it s fine. just thought the difference in the line strange, but now pinny has also moved in same direction. thy anyway.BOL with your football today.

 

[JackDee]

chris can you give me some details on the situation with german bookmaking, are the ones you are refering to online ones? From what I 've heard its heavily government regulated in germany, why haven't we seen any german books online yet, why give all the bussiness to those little shits that are the austrians?

 

[chriscol]

yes it s still under a government monopol. Only 2 books have a licence. Sportwetten gera and one other have licences valid from then former GDR (East-Germany).
more and more bookies are opening and there was a decision by the highes german court that the whole situation needs to be looked at. it s still the fear that people getting gambling addicted.
i think it will take probably 6 to 12 more month until legal issues are out of the way (they cannot stop it under european law) and maybe more german online-books.

 

[JackDee]

because I am living in a country with a monopolised setting for gambling I can see where they are coming from, which isn't of course a matter of addiction control of course, but more a matter of better returns for the government, this is a huge debate which I could argue equally well for both sides.

From our players standpoint of course it will be a huge benefit if such financial giants such as germany get actively involved in a free market betting economy, terms of better odds on the whole, higher limits etc. etc.

I don't know how they keep their books over there, but here having a huge overround and forced triples most of the time, betting is more akeen to playing the lottery and it's almost impossible to win.

So are there any online books from germany at the moment I think I might have come across some that were nothing to write home about, can't remember more details though?

Right, on to our betting,

A pretty good day so far my test record choice of the olympiakos under was a fluke (5-1, he,he, probably THE biggest offset for any under I ve taken), but it's the test record, it's already going well, and the money in nominal for me, besides I made up much more for it on the handicap bet for olympiakos I placed for the main record which was based on the most recent information I had was an easy winner, that information had to effectively overturn the under but I d already bet it.

In the epl blackburn got twice ahead and could have cleaned up our pk bet, as I am writing this wigan were ahead but unfortunately got equalised, let's see how this ends up.


Main Record
42-3-11 +91.7264%

Olympiakos -1.75 at 1.75 for 2.5% Won +1.875

Aek pk at 1.93

Ofi, panathinaikos double at 1.4 for 3%

panathinaikos and levadeikos (1.17, 1.5) 1.755 for 2%


Betting Record 2
32-4-25 +3.2975% ( 14-1-6 5% bets, 20-3-21 2.5% bets)


Blackburn pk at 2.08 (mansion, pointbet etc.) Push
Wigan at 2.04 Loss -2.5%


Test Record
9-5, +15.2%

Olympiakos Aigaleo Under at 2.2 Loss -2%
ionikos over at 2.5 2.5%
kalamaria over at 2.2 2.5%
levadiaakos over at 2.5 2.5%