www.JackWinningham.com
December 22, 2019
The Indiana game was a tough beat. I’m counting it as a loss here, though I was able to get the play at -2 at the last moment and managed a push. Hope you all got the -2 line too. Those ½ points matter sometimes!
Today we are going to finish off the Triple Teaser with a hedge to guarantee us more cash.
We already won the first two Legs of the Teaser, and have Leg 3 as Denver +3 vs the Lions. That’s a GOOD Leg 3 for our Triple Teaser. Here are some hedging options.
TAKE ONE OF THEM AND GUARANTEE A PROFT – or ride out the dip and risk losing everything like a dope. Your choice. These numbers all suppose the original Triple Teaser was for $100, and you are going to hedge $50 on the Lions. You can adjust the math based on what your actual original wager was on the Triple Teaser, and/or how much you want to hedge.
Hedge #1 – an ATS hedge on Detroit.
Take Detroit +7.5 (that’s the new Sunday line – even +8 at some books).
If Denver wins the game, but by 7 points or less – you win the Triple Teaser – AND the hedge. That’s a profit of $150.
If Denver loses by 1 or 2 points – you win the Trip Teaser AND win the hedge. You win $150.
If Denver loses by 3 or more, you lose the Trip Teaser, but win the hedge, and instead of losing $110, you now lose $60. You’ve saved yourself $50.
If Denver wins, but by MORE than 7.5 points, you win the Triple Teaser, but lose the ATS hedge. Your profit is now $45.
Using this hedge philosophy, your options are to win $150, or win $45. But you’ve changed your maximum loss from $110 to $60. If you can’t understand this – graph it out – put it in an Excel formula. This is a way to MINIMIZE losses, while still having a shot to maximize profit beyond what you originally wagered.
Hedge #2 – the Money Line Hedge on Detroit +280
Take Detroit +280 on the ML for a $50 play to win $140
If Denver wins the game, you win the Trip Teaser but lose the ML Hedge. Your profit is $50.
If Denver loses the game, therefore Detroit wins, you end up with a profit of $30.
This is my favorite way to hedge a teaser like this – because once you do this – you GUARENTEE you win money. It just ends up being a question of how much. Now, this does lower your original profit POTENTIAL, but again, it GUARENTEES you do not lose ANYTHING. If you don’t see the value in this – I can’t help you.
To say it again,
HOW YOU MANAGE YOUR MONEY AND BANKROLL is JUST AS IMPORTANT as who you wager on. Learn this. Live this. Love this. If you do, you will NEVER bury yourself in gambling debt. Don’t want to do it? Look in the mirror when you’re eating crackers and croutons for dinner because you gave your paycheck to the casino or to your local sports bookie.
I am 8-5 this week. I’m ending this weekend with a guarantee profit. I hope you do the same.