ITALIAN SOCCER by MA

themadactuarian · Jan 24, 2008

the mad actuarian said:
Pardon my unavailability to post the YTD prior to this round of Coppa Italia.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
COPPA ITALIA YTD: 17W – 21L – 4T (-5.21 units)<o></o>
(Includes the 2 units -under 2 and 2.5- loser on the Catania / Udinese match, which went over at the half. Looks like another extremely volatile day in Coppa Italia, so best to take it easy)<o></o>
<o></o>
ROMA at SAMPDORIA – If anyone had the chance to watch the Sampdoria / Juventus game on the weekend, it would not have been difficult to notice Sampdoria playing a very defensive 4-5-1. They’re only objective was to frustrate Juve and steal a point on the road. Both these two have relatively easy home games on the weekend, with Sampdoria home to Siena (although MA thinks Siena could surprise), while Roma is home to Palermo, a team that they usually toy with. Sampdoria is in much better form than earlier than the year, and at the PK line are worth a shot.<o></o>
SAMPDORIA PK +103 (6.5 units)<o></o>
Over 2.5 -112 (2.5 units)
SAMPDORIA 1 ROMA 1<o></o>
<o></o>
JUVENTUS at INTER MILAN – Key factors to consider: Inter played awful against Parma, and not only deserved to lose, they did lose. Unfortunately, at times, it is the officiating that decides who wins, or rather, who gets the benefit of the calls. Next match for Inter will be an extremely tough date with Udinese, who is no pushover against the big teams. Juventus always shows-up for these types of matches.<o></o>
JUVENTUS +0.5 +107 (3 units)<o></o>
Under 2.5 -111 (3.5 units)
INTER MILAN 2 JUVENTUS 2
<o></o>
Don’t usually recommend plays for Coppa Italia. It’s quite unpredictable, and besides, I went from up 25+ units, to -5 units for the year. Nonetheless, I think the Samp is worth a shot as a decent medium play.<o></o>
<o></o>
SERIE A YTD: 110W – 95L – 50T (+82.627 units)<o></o>
AC MILAN at ATALANTA – Both teams should be able to find the back of the net at least once. AC matches up well against ATALANTA, who also has difficulty at the midfield level; as such, they should finally have some space to attack. This game will be totally different than the Udinese / Milan defensive struggle.<o></o>
AC MILAN -1 +119 (6 units)<o></o>
Over 2.5 and 3 +122 (3.5 units)<o></o>
First half: AC Milan pk and -0.5 -109 (2.5 units)
ATALANTA 2 AC MILAN 1
<o></o>
If this was not midweek play, AC Milan would be a strong best bet. Also, they have cost me a lot this year, so will keep this one as a decent medium play.<o></o>
<o></o>
Best of luck ,<o></o>
<o></o>
MA<o></o>

Coppa Italia Wednesday: 1W-3L-1T (-5.635 units)

SERIE A Wednesday: 1W-2L-2T (-5.228 units)

Coppa Italia Thursday:
FIORENTINA at LAZIO
Fiorentina PK +110 (3.5 units)
First half: Fiorentina PK +108 (3 units)

Best of Luck,

MA

themadactuarian · Jan 25, 2008

Coppa Italia Thursday:
FIORENTINA at LAZIO
Fiorentina PK +110 (3.5 units)
First half: Fiorentina PK +108 (3 units)

Coppa Italia Thursday:
LAZIO 2 Fiorentina 1
0W-2L-0T (-6.5 units)

(sometimes you can be dominated by your opponent, as Lazio was by Fiore, and still come out with a victory, curtosy of a few miracles performed by your goalkeeper.)

Best of luck.

themadactuarian · Jan 25, 2008

Proceeding into the weekend with the following YTD numbers:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice

ffice" /><o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
SERIE B: 77W 83L 39T (-46.101 units)<o></o>
SERIE A: 111W 97L 52T (+77.399 units)<o></o>
<o> </o>
SERIE B<o></o>
<o> </o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1

lace>BRESCIA</st1

lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1

lace>VICENZA</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:City><st1

lace>Brescia</st1

lace></st1:City> pk and -0.5 +110 (7 units)<o

></o

>
(I am not a stat inclined player. <st1:City><st1

lace>Vicenza</st1

lace></st1:City> at home as amassed 0W-5T-6L, with 8 goals scored and 17 allowed. More important to me is the returning form of <st1:City><st1

lace>Brescia</st1

lace></st1:City>’s defense following their recent winless streak. Last 4 games: 3W-0L-1T, 7 goals scored, none allowed. Can’t pathom a letdown against an opponent with overall poor offensive and defensive numbers like <st1:City><st1

lace>Vicenza</st1

lace></st1:City>. In the past 9 games 5 goals scored, and 19 allowed.)<o></o>
<o> </o>
<st1:City><st1

lace>BOLOGNA</st1

lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1

lace>RIMINI</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:Street><st1:address>RIMINI PK</st1:address></st1:Street> +108 (5 units)<o

></o

>
(Extremely important match for a very talented side like <st1:City><st1

lace>Rimini</st1

lace></st1:City> who is currently struggling offensively with just 1 goal scored in the last 5 games. A loss here and the climb back for Serie A dreams could turn into a nightmare. I rarely go against a team like <st1:City><st1

lace>Bologna</st1

lace></st1:City>, but <st1:City><st1

lace>Rimini</st1

lace></st1:City> is just too talented to remain dormant.)<o></o>
<o

> </o

>
ASCOLI at <st1:City><st1

lace>PIACENZA</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
Ascoli pk and +0.5 -122 (5 units)<o

></o

>
(Ascoli is winless on the road in the last 10 games, with just 3 draws and 7 losses. If you play within the confines of Serie B, these stats should easily justify a play on the home side. Not for me, especially when you factor in that <st1:City><st1

lace>Piacenza</st1

lace></st1:City> has no offensive punch. Ascoli, despite being winless in the last 7 (1 loss and 6 draws), are playing good defense under a tight <st1:date Month="4" Day="4" Year="2002">4-4-2</st1:date>. They should have enough to contain <st1:City><st1

lace>Piacenza</st1

lace></st1:City>; as a matter of fact they should walk away with first road victory of the season)<o></o>
<o

> </o

>
MANTOVA at <st1:City><st1

lace>RAVENNA</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
Mantova pk and -0.5 -118 (3.5 units)<o

></o

>
(Four goals scored in the last eight games by <st1:City><st1

lace>Ravenna</st1

lace></st1:City>. Mantova with 6 wins in the last 7 games with an emerging offense that has scored 14 goals in the same span...)<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
<st1:City><st1

lace>MODENA</st1

lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1

lace>GROSSETO</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:City><st1

lace>Modena</st1

lace></st1:City> pk and +0.5 +121 (3.5 units)<o

></o

>
(<st1:City><st1

lace>Grosseto</st1

lace></st1:City> have not won two in a row all year, and it’s not going to happen today against an opponent who is just 1 point ahead in the standings, and is also much more talented…)<o></o>
<o

> </o

>
<st1:City><st1

lace>CESENA</st1

lace></st1:City> at CHIEVO<o></o>
CHIEVO -1 and 1.5 +104 (3 units)<o

></o

>
OVER 2.5 -101 (3.5 units)<o

></o

>
(With Bologna having to deal with Rimini on the road, Chievo has the opportunity to vault to the top of he standings against an opponent who has managed to score only 7 goals on the road while allowing 21. Chievo is an offensive machine with 15 goals scored in the last 7 games.)<o></o>
<st1:City><st1

lace>BARI</st1

lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1

lace>PISA</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:City><st1

lace>Bari</st1

lace></st1:City> +0.5 and +1 +104 (3 units)<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
For Serie B can recommend <st1:City><st1

lace>Brescia</st1

lace></st1:City> at pk and -0.5 (best bet), Rimini at pk, and Ascoli at pk and +0.5, as legitimate medium plays.<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
Best of luck to all,<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
MA<o

></o

>

Icemantbi · Jan 26, 2008

Hey MA, thinking about dropping a few bills on Roma -1 this afternoon. Totti is back for Roma, and Palermo has a shaky defence. What do you think about this matchup?

themadactuarian · Jan 26, 2008

Icemantbi said:
Hey MA, thinking about dropping a few bills on Roma -1 this afternoon. Totti is back for Roma, and Palermo has a shaky defence. What do you think about this matchup?

Pardon my delay in responding. Roma can be quite the predator, and line reflects this. Earlier in the week, Roma -1 and -1.5 was +107. It is now -113. In theory, they should win for a couple of reasons: -Roma in good form.
-Palermo's defense unable to contain teams with counter-attacking prowess like Roma.-
Many Serie A teams smell wicked upset smells coming from Udinese, thus, not the time to let your guard down.

My play(s) is as follows:
First half: AS ROMA -0.5 -105 (3 units)

For the game: Roma -1.5 +114 (4 units)
(your safe option is a pricy -1 at -160)

Over 2.5 and 3 -128 (5 units)

Best of luck, Sundays games are more enticing.

MA

themadactuarian · Jan 26, 2008

the mad actuarian said:
Proceeding into the weekend with the following YTD numbers:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
SERIE B: 77W 83L 39T (-46.101 units)<o></o>
SERIE A: 111W 97L 52T (+77.399 units)<o></o>
<o></o>
SERIE B<o></o>
<o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>BRESCIA</st1lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1lace>VICENZA</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> pk and -0.5 +110 (7 units)<o></o>
(I am not a stat inclined player. <st1:City><st1lace>Vicenza</st1lace></st1:City> at home as amassed 0W-5T-6L, with 8 goals scored and 17 allowed. More important to me is the returning form of <st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City>’s defense following their recent winless streak. Last 4 games: 3W-0L-1T, 7 goals scored, none allowed. Can’t pathom a letdown against an opponent with overall poor offensive and defensive numbers like <st1:City><st1lace>Vicenza</st1lace></st1:City>. In the past 9 games 5 goals scored, and 19 allowed.)
VICENZA 1 Brescia 1

<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>BOLOGNA</st1lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1lace>RIMINI</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:Street><st1:address>RIMINI PK</st1:address></st1:Street> +108 (5 units)<o></o>
(Extremely important match for a very talented side like <st1:City><st1lace>Rimini</st1lace></st1:City> who is currently struggling offensively with just 1 goal scored in the last 5 games. A loss here and the climb back for Serie A dreams could turn into a nightmare. I rarely go against a team like <st1:City><st1lace>Bologna</st1lace></st1:City>, but <st1:City><st1lace>Rimini</st1lace></st1:City> is just too talented to remain dormant.)
<o>Bologna 2 RIMINI 1</o>
<o></o>
ASCOLI at <st1:City><st1lace>PIACENZA</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
Ascoli pk and +0.5 -122 (5 units)<o></o>
(Ascoli is winless on the road in the last 10 games, with just 3 draws and 7 losses. If you play within the confines of Serie B, these stats should easily justify a play on the home side. Not for me, especially when you factor in that <st1:City><st1lace>Piacenza</st1lace></st1:City> has no offensive punch. Ascoli, despite being winless in the last 7 (1 loss and 6 draws), are playing good defense under a tight <st1:date Year="2002" Day="4" Month="4">4-4-2</st1:date>. They should have enough to contain <st1:City><st1lace>Piacenza</st1lace></st1:City>; as a matter of fact they should walk away with first road victory of the season)
PIACENZA 2 Ascoli 1
(I believe it's the 5th week in a row that Serie B stabs me beyond the 90th minute...I'm hurtin..)
<o></o>
MANTOVA at <st1:City><st1lace>RAVENNA</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
Mantova pk and -0.5 -118 (3.5 units)<o></o>
(Four goals scored in the last eight games by <st1:City><st1lace>Ravenna</st1lace></st1:City>. Mantova with 6 wins in the last 7 games with an emerging offense that has scored 14 goals in the same span...)
RAVENNA 5 Mantova 2 (?)
(welcome to Serie B....)
<o></o>
<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>MODENA</st1lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1lace>GROSSETO</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Modena</st1lace></st1:City> pk and +0.5 +121 (3.5 units)<o></o>
(<st1:City><st1lace>Grosseto</st1lace></st1:City> have not won two in a row all year, and it’s not going to happen today against an opponent who is just 1 point ahead in the standings, and is also much more talented…)
Modena 2 GROSSETO 0
<o></o>
<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>CESENA</st1lace></st1:City> at CHIEVO<o></o>
CHIEVO -1 and 1.5 +104 (3 units)<o></o>
OVER 2.5 -101 (3.5 units)<o></o>
(With Bologna having to deal with Rimini on the road, Chievo has the opportunity to vault to the top of he standings against an opponent who has managed to score only 7 goals on the road while allowing 21. Chievo is an offensive machine with 15 goals scored in the last 7 games.)
CHIEVO 3 Cesena 1
<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>BARI</st1lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1lace>PISA</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Bari</st1lace></st1:City> +0.5 and +1 +104 (3 units)<o></o>
<o></o>
For Serie B can recommend <st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> at pk and -0.5 (best bet), Rimini at pk, and Ascoli at pk and +0.5, as legitimate medium plays.
Bari 1 PISA 1
<o></o>

SERIE B SATURDAY: 4W-4L-1T (-4.755 units)

themadactuarian · Jan 26, 2008

the mad actuarian said:
Pardon my delay in responding. Roma can be quite the predator, and line reflects this. Earlier in the week, Roma -1 and -1.5 was +107. It is now -113. In theory, they should win for a couple of reasons: -Roma in good form.
-Palermo's defense unable to contain teams with counter-attacking prowess like Roma.-
Many Serie A teams smell wicked upset smells coming from Udinese, thus, not the time to let your guard down.

My play(s) is as follows:
First half: AS ROMA -0.5 -105 (3 units)

For the game: Roma -1.5 +114 (4 units)
(your safe option is a pricy -1 at -160)

Over 2.5 and 3 -128 (5 units)

Best of luck, Sundays games are more enticing.

MA

ROMA 1 Palermo 0

Serie A Saturday: 0W-3L-0T (-13.55 units)
(for those who watched the game...that harmless 92nd minute POST(woodwork) by Roma was hard to swallow...

Better not to dwell on it.

Good luck,

MA

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

SERIE A - Sunday, January 27th

Parma at CATANIA
Parma pk and +0.5 -109 (7.5 units)

REGGINA at ATALANTA
ATALANTA -0.5 and -1 +101 (5.5 units)

INTER MILAN at UDINESE
UDINESE +0.5 +111 (5 units)
Under 2.5 -110 (3 units)

GENOA at AC MILAN
AC MILAN -1.5 -109 (4 units)
Over 2.5 and 3 -110 (4 units)

LAZIO at TORINO
TORINO PK -128 (4 units)
Over 2 and 2.5 -106 (3 units)

MA says: Can only recommend Parma at PK and +0.5 as a legitimate best bet. Also, I'm still considering 1 or 2 half-time plays to potentially back-up my ever growing 92nd minute meltdowns.When the smoke clears in the AM, we should have a decent play on the Livorno / Juventus match.

Best of luck to all,

MA

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

I am adding:

Fiorentina at EMPOLI
Fiorentina pk and -0.5 -102 (4 units)

First half plays:
Torino / Lazio over 0.5 and -1 -129 (3 units)
Torino pk -115 (3 units)

Best of luck to all

JohnMolson · Jan 27, 2008

I play a rare over on Genoa and these teams decide to come out with no offence whatsoever :WTF:

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

John Molson said:
I play a rare over on Genoa and these teams decide to come out with no offence whatsoever :WTF:

1 goal at the half....It's going to be a bad beat today....I can feel it.

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

and as usual Torino gets its usual red card before the half....I'm going to get ruined on this one.

Icemantbi · Jan 27, 2008

What do you think of Juve later on?

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

Icemantbi said:
What do you think of Juve later on?

Following today's draw between INTER MILAN and UDINESE, I believe we have no choice but to side with Juventus. Opportunities to gain ground on INTER MILAN are going to be rare indeed. Juventus must win not only gain 2 points on the leaders, but also must win to neutrilize Fiorentina 2-0 nil victory today. Things to be conserned: Sampdoria went to Juventus last week with the sole purpose of stealing a point. The whole match they frustrated their hated neighbors by deploying a 5-4-1 defensive formation; with Livorno you potentially have the same game aspect, as these two organizations dislike eachother with the same intensity as Lazio and Roma.

Game is going to go way over or way under. If Juventus is even (0-0) at the break of the first half, you can bet that Livorno's three substitutions are going to be defensively oriented. Speaking of Livorno, they have managed to turn an horrendous start into the current 9 game unbeaten streak (arguably a combination of solid football combined with some lucky game heroics.)

Opening match of the year saw Juventus dismantle LIVO 5-1, but this is a different team now; believe these two will trade goals, especially if Juventus scores first (which, ideally, is what we want)

First half:
Juventus pk and -0.5 +111 (3.5 units)
(they need to score in this half, to force Livorno into what they are not capable of doing, countering and pressing)

For the game:
Juventus -0.5 -112 (5.5 units)
Over 2.5 -101 (2.5 units)

Best of luck.

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

Second half:
Juventus pk and -0.5 -103 (3 units)

what a fucckën goal by Trezeguet.

themadactuarian · Jan 27, 2008

the mad actuarian said:
Second half:
Juventus pk and -0.5 -103 (3 units)

what a fucckën goal by Trezeguet.

Juventus counter-attacking with Del P produces the 2-0...I want more.

JohnMolson · Jan 27, 2008

nice hit on the late game MA..:toast:

JohnMolson · Jan 29, 2008

does Roma get the W today MA??

themadactuarian · Jan 29, 2008

John Molson said:
does Roma get the W today MA??

COPPA ITALIA YTD: 18W - 25L - 5T (-15.185 units)

First leg they played red carded and down a goal for a good portion of the match. Yet they managed to equalize.The minus 1 line opened at +107, now near or above the -130.

The only thing that concerns me is if this ends 0-0 at regulation, but in all honesty don't see that happening as Roma won't be as tentative as they were against Palermo last week.

ROMA -1 -130 (3.5 units)

Over 2.5 and 3 +102 (2 units)

much better action tomorrow..so take it easy

themadactuarian · Jan 30, 2008

COPPA ITALIA YTD: 18W - 25L - 5T (-15.185 units)

First leg they played red carded and down a goal for a good portion of the match. Yet they managed to equalize.The minus 1 line opened at +107, now near or above the -130.

The only thing that concerns me is if this ends 0-0 at regulation, but in all honesty don't see that happening as Roma won't be as tentative as they were against Palermo last week.

ROMA -1 -130 (3.5 units)

Over 2.5 and 3 +102 (2 units)

much better action tomorrow..so take it easy

ROMA 1 Sampdoria 0
Coppa Italia Tuesday: 0W-1L (-2.0 units)

Coppa Italia Wednesday:
Udinese at CATANIA
Udinese PK and +0.5 +110 (6.5 units)
Under 2.5 -118 (3 units)