ITALIAN SOCCER by MA

[themadactuarian]

Greetings,<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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There should be some serious turbulence in both the “B” and “A” leagues. Nonetheless, will proceed with the following numbers:<o></o>
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SERIE B YTD: 87W – 90L – 42T (-41.375 units)<o></o>
SERIE A YTD: 133W – 110L – 60T (+109.935 units)<o></o>
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SERIE B:<o></o>
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Ascoli at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>RIMINI</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
Both teams struggling, with a huge tendency to shoot themselves in the foot late in the game. Talent wise, <st1:City><st1lace>Rimini</st1lace></st1:City> is right up there with <st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> / <st1:City><st1lace>Lecce</st1lace></st1:City> / Chievo. Underachieving all year, must start producing at home to essentially keep up the hope for slim Serie A graduation. Ascoli will improve, but much like Udinese in Serie A, they are an absolute mess on the road. Believe it or not, only three points separate these two in the standings, and as such can’t envision host playing tentavive against visitor who will be just as aggressive.<o></o>
Over 2 and 2.5 +101 (8 units)<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Rimini</st1lace></st1:City> -0.5 +110 (3 units)<o></o>
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<st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1lace>PIACENZA</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
Inconsistent throughout the year (<st1:City><st1lace>Piacenza</st1lace></st1:City>), against resurging <st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City>. If you take a look at the past losing streak, which started with a loss to Spezia and culminated with a loss to Chievo, <st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> has returned to the path of destruction.<o></o>
The winless streak covered 5 games (0W-4L-1T with 1 goal scored). Since then, 4W – 0L – 2T, with 12 goals scored and 2 allowed. Not exactly a predator on the road, but then again, with one game in hand, 3 points will firmly put this side back in the race for promotion to the crooked league.<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> pk and -0.5 -112 (5.5 units)<o></o>
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Triestina at <st1:City><st1lace>LECCE</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
They could easily crush them here. <st1:City><st1lace>Lecce</st1lace></st1:City> is one of the most balanced teams on home turf with just 6 goals allowed in 11 games. Triestina has a tendency to hold its own on the road for the first 45 minutes, but has collapsed numerous times in the second half. I’ve watched plenty of <st1:City><st1lace>Lecce</st1lace></st1:City> games (the good, the bad, and the ugly), and in current form should – in theory – do a number on the visitor.<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Lecce</st1lace></st1:City> -1 +107 (4 units)<o></o>
Over 2.5 -103 (3.5 units)<o></o>
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<st1:City><st1lace>Treviso</st1lace></st1:City> at CHIEVO<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Treviso</st1lace></st1:City> has been horrendous on the road. Winless in 12 games with 21 games allowed. Chievo playing well and scoring at will, especially at home. If weather does not intervene, Chievo front three should – once again, in theory – dissect a truly horrible defensive core, that has had problems all year with any team with a speck of speed up front.<o></o>
Over 2.5 -103 (3 units)<o></o>
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<st1:City><st1lace>Bari</st1lace></st1:City> at <st1:City><st1lace>VICENZA</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
I know <st1:City><st1lace>Bari</st1lace></st1:City> is sucking (struggling) big time, but in all honesty, so does <st1:City><st1lace>Vicenza</st1lace></st1:City>. The total is indicative of two cellar dwellers stuck in the relegation zone going head to head. Maybe it’s me, but both of these have conceded a ton of goals, and can’t imagine these two playing “soft” for a cheap draw.<o></o>
Over 2 -133 (3 units)<o></o>
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<st1:City><st1lace>Modena</st1lace></st1:City> at SPEZIA<o></o>
Heading in opposite directions…Spezia is Serie B’s version of <st1:City><st1lace>Cagliari</st1lace></st1:City>.<o></o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Modena</st1lace></st1:City> pk -121 (3 units)<o></o>
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SERIE A<o></o>
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Fiorentina at ATALANTA<o></o>
Atalanta pk and +0.5 (3 units)<o></o>
First half: Atalanta pk +123 (2.5 units)<o></o>
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Reggina at ROMA<o></o>
First half: Roma -0.5 and -1 +100 (3 units)<o></o>
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In the “B”, recommend the over 2 and 2.5 in the Rimini / Ascoli game as a legitimate best bet. <st1:City><st1lace>Brescia</st1lace></st1:City> at pk and -0.5 is a good valued medium play. In Serie A, will prefer to tango with tomorrow’s card.<o></o>
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Best of luck to all.<o></o>
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MA<o></o>

 

[themadactuarian]

Reggina +1 and +1.5 +172 (2.5 units)
Over 3 +100 (2.5 units)

 

[themadactuarian]

SERIE A - Sunday, February 10th, 2008

Palermo at TORINO
TORINO pk and -0.5 +118 (7.5 units)
Over 2 and 2.5 -123 (4 units)

Lazio at EMPOLI
Lazio pk -124 (4.5 units)

Parma at CAGLIARI
Parma pk and +0.5 -112 (3.5 units)
Over 2 and 2.5 -105 (3 units)

Juventus at UDINESE
UDINESE pk and +0.5 -113 (4 units)

Napoli at SAMPDORIA
Napoli +0.5 -103 (6.5 units)

Siena at AC MILAN
Over 2.5 +101 (3 units)

This Sunday's Serie A could produce some surprising results. I recommend Torino at pk and -0.5 as a best bet with extremely good value, and Napoli at +0.5 as a strong medium play (many will be on Sampdoria, which is a valid option, yet Napoli matches up well against Samp's unpredictable back four, and could surprise in the second half). Udinese and Lazio are also worthy of consideration as peripheral plays.

Best of luck to all.

 

[eSTOXX]

Good Luck,
but this is my opinion
Siena at AC MILAN X 2 units
Palermo at TORINO X 3 units
Juventus at UDINESE 1 3 units

 

[JohnMolson]

does Inter take care of business today MA ??

 

[themadactuarian]

does Inter take care of business today MA ??

They should, but they are not playing well. Last week's game was a complete fiasco, and deserved nothing more than a draw.

For me it's going to be as follows:

First half: Catania pk and +0.5 +111 (3 units)

For the game:
Under 2.5 -121 (3 units)
Catania +0.5 and +1 +102 (3 units)

If you are playing Inter, stick with -1 +130. It's either going to very close, or they break it open in the second half.

GOOD LUCK,

MA

 

[JohnMolson]

played the -1

 

[JohnMolson]

dead 1st half.0-0:shocked:

 

[Icemantbi]

I'm thinking the second half under 1, 1.5 might be a good hedge

 

[themadactuarian]

Catania spent a lot of energy in the first half. Can they hold?

 

[MrCleo]

Inter scores, talk about a blown offsides

 

[themadactuarian]

Entering the midweek action in Serie B and A, which has a tendency to produce more midweek massacres than midweek marvels, with the following 2007 / 2008 season YTD totals:

SERIE B: 91W – 92L – 44T (-28.19 units)
SERIE A: 140W – 118L – 66T (+102.83 units)

This is the return leg of week 4 in Serie B; I remember that week clearly not because of any surprising results that occurred among the 11 matches, but because only 11 goals were scored for the entire card. Don’t thing this phenomenon will be repeated today, but it’s midweek Serie B and anything can happen.

Pisa at BRESCIA
Each with equal impressive records entering this midweek match: Pisa with 9W-2T-1L on the road, and a whopping 28 goals scored. Brescia, equally a predator at home, with 9W-0T-3L and 25 goals scored and 11 allowed. 4th week result saw Brescia clobber Pisa on the road 3-nil, and it wasn’t a fluke either, as the visitor was in excellent form on offense and defense. Separated by 5 points in the standings, this is an excellent opportunity for Brescia to gain some valuable ground on the leaders, and still retain one game in hand. I am always encouraged when I see this unit score in bunches, as they did last week against Piacenza (4), and the previous week against Grosseto (4).
BRESCIA -0.5 +105 (7.5 units)
Team total: Brescia over 1.5 +107 (2 units)

Rimini at TREVISO
Hardest thing to do is win road games, and this is regardless of the opponent strength in the standings. This scenario is applicable here with a team like Treviso, useless on the road, but respectable at home (5W-2T-4L), with 15 goals scored and 12 allowed. Rimini has been a disappointment on the road this year, and as a result has suffered in the standings. Back to back victories by shutouts is an encouraging sign that this unit is returning to form, and in my opinion are much better defensively than current overall record indicates. Rimini has lost some heartbreakers in the late stages against opponents who were clearly dominated for 90% of the match. I do not thing that scenario is going to unfold here against Treviso, whose play has improved slightly. Nonethless, with one victory in the last 9 games and a struggling offense, don’t see them beating the visitor who might just walk away with their third straight victory.
Rimini pk and +0.5 -114 (6.5 units)

Piacenza at BARI
It’s quite simple, really. Two useless bottom of the table teams, with one being even more useless than the other. On one hand, you have Piacenza with 26 points and a very impressive road record (3W – 1T – 8L), with 8 goals scored and 19 allowed. On the other you have Bari with 24 points, fresh from last week’s 3-2 win at Vicenza; a game which they were leading 2-nil before Piacenza drew even…The home side has not been in stellar form on the home pitch this year with just 3W – 5T – 4L, 14 goals scored, and 15 allowed. Much like Catania in Serie A, this is a tough stadium to play in, and if Bari can’t beat a team like Piacenza at home, then they do deserve the relegation the infamous and dreaded C1. Oh well, at least we should have some goals scored.
BARI -0.5 -102 (4.5 units)
Over 2 and 2.5 +102 (3.5 units)

The rest of the useless suspects are as follows:

Messina at FROSINONE
FROSINONE pk and -0.5 -111 (3.5 units)

Chievo at MODENA
Modena pk and +0.5 -103 (3 units)
Team total: Modena over 1 +109 (2 units)

Lecce at ASCOLI
Ascoli pk +111 (2.5 units)

For those looking for one or two plays in today’s midweek Serie B card, I recommend Brescia at -0.5 as best bet, and Rimini at pk and +0.5, as a strong medium play with good value.
Best of luck to all,
MA

 

[JohnMolson]

thx for brecia and rimini MA..i PARLAYED THE 2

 

[Icemantbi]

Any thoughts on AC Milan tomorrow MA?

 

[JohnMolson]

what's the good word on AC Milan game MA??

 

[MrCleo]

ac milan has been producing Unders like no other at home but i'm interested to see what MA says first

 

[evilflamingo]

Milan is missing two key players in Nesta and Kaka and will probably start with two oldies at fullback (Cafu and Favalli). This may hurt them offensively but shouldn't be much of a difference defensively (compared to Oddo and Jankulovski). Maldini and Pato is also out with injuries while Ronaldo is most likely to come on as a substitute. All this probably means that Milan will start with Gilardino and Inzaghi up front, which has not been a very successful combination over the years so I'll say the Under is looking pretty good.

Some stats:
Milan has scored 5 goals while conceding none in the last 4 games played while Livorno is 3-5 for the same period. Over the course of the whole season Milan has scored a goal only every 81st minute at home while conceding one every 128th. Same stats for Livorno away is 75-56.

 

[themadactuarian]

There is much better material on the weekend, so see no reason to glamorize AC Milan any more than already has been done. Nonetheless, see no other option but a play on Milan, as I suspect Livorno is looking down the road to Saturday's match with Inter Milan. Let's face it, if you are going to rest members of your core unit, it's going to be today, and not on Saturday, against hated Inter Milan.
The logical and sensible play is under 2.5, and Milan at moneyline.
I'm hoping for some sloppy football from the visitor, to produce the following:

For me it's going to be
AC Milan -1 and -1.5 -115 (3.5 units)
Over 2.5 -101 (2.5 units)

A parlay option would be:
AC Milan -0.5 -310 (Today)
Ascoli pk -110 (Serie B Saturday)
Torino pk and +0.5 +104 (Serie A Sunday)

best of luck,

MA

 

[caputotti]

I agree with milan to win but not sure about over pato out kaka out
but gilardino have a lot to show and this is hes chances...

 

[themadactuarian]

I agree with milan to win but not sure about over pato out kaka out
but gilardino have a lot to show and this is hes chances...

Gilardino not in form - more of a mental block than anything else.

Good luck to you.