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'For the best possible read on the future of the US and the global economy, there is no better place to go than Global Trading Dispatch, published by me, John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

This is where the largest hedge funds, brokers, and yes, even the US government goes to find out what really is going to happen to the economy.'



lol , how can anyone not like readign this guy?
 

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hydrogen is just too expensive, Hydrogen contains much less energy per volume than gasoline or diesel.


Nikola Badger – Roll out is expected in 2021 and has a hydrogen fuel cell power source that hasn’t a hope in hell of ever becoming economic. As I never tire of explaining to investors, while electric power is digital and scalable, hydrogen is analog and isn’t. Maybe that’s why the stock is down 83% since June. Too many unbelievable promises and no actual functioning model. Gravity was their only actual power source.
 

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'For the best possible read on the future of the US and the global economy, there is no better place to go than Global Trading Dispatch, published by me, John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

This is where the largest hedge funds, brokers, and yes, even the US government goes to find out what really is going to happen to the economy.'



lol , how can anyone not like readign this guy?


Entertainment ..he's picked a few big winners.
 

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hydrogen is just too expensive, Hydrogen contains much less energy per volume than gasoline or diesel.


Nikola Badger – Roll out is expected in 2021 and has a hydrogen fuel cell power source that hasn’t a hope in hell of ever becoming economic. As I never tire of explaining to investors, while electric power is digital and scalable, hydrogen is analog and isn’t. Maybe that’s why the stock is down 83% since June. Too many unbelievable promises and no actual functioning model. Gravity was their only actual power source.

ha...
 

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(Thomas is a great read Boz, again thnks for posting his articles. So much good info and his calls are significantly more right than wrong )

that's good news for BABA.....where is this guy?


CQTW4SEFS5NVFBKCD47BEVTUUA.jpg
 

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Interesting news on BABA. That stock should be well over $300 right now....but the CCP. smh
 

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Interesting news on BABA. That stock should be well over $300 right now....but the CCP. smh

agree....I will say I've been nicked up here but I've never worried much about the long game here.
 

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Top News
Wallet extinction
shutterstock_464537990.jpg
Shutterstock
In a major expansion of its app-based services, Apple (AAPL) has lined up the first U.S. states to allow drivers to store their licenses within the Apple Wallet app. Arizona and Georgia will be the first states to offer the functionality for their drivers, with Connecticut, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Oklahoma, and Utah next in line for the feature. Residents of those states will be able to store their state-issued identification cards in Apple Wallet should they not have a driver's license.

How does it work? Adding a driver's license to Apple Wallet will be similar to scanning a credit card for online purchases. A person will use their iPhone to scan their actual driver's license or state ID card, and take a picture of themself that will be securely provided to their state for verification. Users will also have to complete a set of facial and head movements during the setup process. Once the person is verified by their state, their ID or driver’s license will be added to their Wallet app.

"The addition is an important step in our vision of replacing the physical wallet with a secure and easy-to-use mobile wallet,” said Jennifer Bailey, Apple’s vice president of Apple Pay and Apple Wallet. The company has also lined up the Transportation Security Administration to support the new ID feature on iPhones. The agency will have specific security checkpoints and lanes at participating airports where travelers use their iPhones to show their ID cards before they get on a plane.

Analyst commentary: Dan Ives, who covers Apple for Wedbush, said that with the company already having more than 1B of its mobile devices in use, adding driver's licenses to Apple Wallet, "is a smart move by Apple, given the digital transformation of consumers in this post-COVID environment." (32 comments)



Infrastructure
Ida destruction
Shutterstock
Tornado watches and flash flood warnings have been issued for parts of the Tri-State Area as remnants of Hurricane Ida brought in heavy winds and drenching rains that turned major highways into rivers. Tornados were even confirmed in Mullica Hill and Sewell, New Jersey, which are located just outside Philadelphia. Other videos showed water rushing through Newark Liberty International Airport, canceling all flights there, as the tail-end of the storm dumped a month's worth of rain that resulted in the deaths of six people.

Focus on infrastructure: Down in Louisiana, the death toll from Ida has also risen to at least six, though that pales in comparison to the 1,800 people who perished during Katrina. While both storms were of nearly equal strength, Congress has funded a massive $14.5B concrete-and-steel project since 2005, called the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. The 133-mile-long system of levees, floodwalls, floodgates and pump stations was built by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, with the advice of some expert Dutch engineering firms.

Along with sustained damage in the Northeast, Ida could mobilize lawmakers to pass the bipartisan $1T infrastructure bill, which is making its way through Congress. "If we are going to make our country more resilient to natural disasters wherever they are we have to start preparing now," Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy declared. "We can't look in the rearview mirror and say 'boy I wish we were prepared.'" President Biden is set to survey the destruction in Louisiana on Friday, with a million homes and businesses still without power, as well as 600,000 people without water.

Bill comes due: Ida is estimated to have caused almost $18B in damage that'll be covered by insurers, according to risk-modeling firm Karen Clark & Co. The forecast includes privately insured damage to vehicles, houses and commercial and industrial properties, but does not include boats, offshore properties or losses from the National Flood Insurance Program. Insurers are also up against higher costs more broadly amid a rising consumer price index, with supply shortages, elevated transportation costs and high demand for materials needed to help repair homes. (6 comments)



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Healthcare
Opioid settlement
U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Robert Drain has approved a sweeping settlement for Purdue Pharma, the maker of OxyContin, which would resolve thousands of lawsuits from state and local governments, Native American tribes, unions and others alleging the company fueled the opioid epidemic. The plan will reorganize the drugmaker into a new charity-oriented company with a board appointed by public officials that will funnel profits into government-led efforts to prevent and treat addiction. It will also set up a compensation fund that will pay some victims of drugs an expected $3,500 to $48,000 each.

As for the Sacklers: They will lose ownership of Purdue and pay about $4.5B to settle opioid claims, which will shield members of the family with broad legal protections against future civil litigation. That provision was objected to by nine states and a division of the U.S. Justice Department, as well as Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson, who dubbed the order "insulting to victims of the opioid epidemic who had no voice in these proceedings." Overall, the settlement would allot $10B to fight the opioid crisis which has killed half a million Americans over the past two decades.

While the Sacklers are quitting the drug business, the deal would largely allow them to preserve the bulk of their fortune, worth an estimated $11B. The Sacklers were also not given immunity from criminal charges, though there haven't been signs that they would face any such suits. "Our family cares deeply that OxyContin was part of the opioid crisis, but it was unintentional," said David Sackler, the grandson of late Purdue co-owner Raymond Sackler. "We don't believe our conduct was illegal in any way, and we want to help."

More settlements: While Purdue was by far the biggest fish to catch, other companies have been also caught in the frying pan. In July, McKesson (MCK), Cardinal Health (CAH) and AmerisourceBergen (ABC) agreed to pay up to $1.2B to resolve claims by New York state and two of its counties over their role in fueling a nationwide opioid epidemic. The same month, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) agreed to pay $5B as part of an agreement with state attorneys general over its alleged role in the opioid crisis. (2 comments)




Covid
Oral trials
Oral drugs that combat COVID-19 are garnering interest from drugmakers and countries alike, as the coronavirus battle moves beyond jabs and syringes. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Merck (NYSE:MRK) have both announced the start of trials to test oral antiviral medications that target the disease. The race to develop an easy-to-administer treatment comes amid growing interest in the market for coronavirus therapeutics as the threat of COVID-19 sticks around for the foreseeable future.

Pfizer's latest mid-to-late-stage trial will enroll 1,140 non-hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus infection who are not at risk of severe illness. They'll be given Pfizer's pill, known as PF-07321332, as well as a low dose of ritonavir, which is widely used in combination with HIV treatments. Merck's trial will study the experimental drug molnupiravir for the prevention of COVID-19 among adults who live in the same household as a person with a symptomatic coronavirus infection.

Over in Israel: The country announced in July that it would be the first in the world to test an oral COVID-19 vaccine developed by Oramed Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ORMP). The first trial will involve 24 unvaccinated volunteers, each taking one or two pills, before moving on to larger Phase 3 trials if successful. The vaccine should be "much more resistant to COVID-19 variants," according to Oramed CEO Nadav Kidron, since it trains the immune system against three viral proteins instead of the single protein targeted by Pfizer and Moderna's (NASDAQ:MRNA) shots.

Elsewhere: The World Health Organization is monitoringa new coronavirus variant named "mu," which, according to the agency, has the potential to escape the immunity gained from COVID-19 vaccines or natural infection. On August 30, WHO has added the "mu" variant, also known as B.1.621 among scientists, to the global agency’s list of variants "of interest." The strain was first identified in Colombia, but has since been detected in at least 39 countries. (9 comments)



Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.8%. India +0.9%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.3% at $68.79. Gold +0.2% at $1819.40. Bitcoin +4.6% at $49817.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.28%

Today's Economic Calendar
Auto Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Goods and Services Trade
10:00 Factory Orders
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

Companies reporting earnings today »


What else is happening...
OPEC+ agrees to continue gradual monthly oil production increases.

Latest crackdown... China summons 11 ride-hailing firms over misconduct.

ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) climbs 14% AH after boosting revenue outlook.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) seeks FDA authorization for COVID booster shot.

Investment garbage? Bill Gross says bonds are trash now, joining cash.

Report: Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) testing ability for users to send tips with Bitcoin.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) adding 55,000 tech jobs under new CEO Andy Jassy.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) hears from regulators with questions on Autopilot.

Google's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) YouTube Music hits 50M paid subscribers - FT.

Ant Group reportedly teams with Beijing-backed investors to rescue IPO.


Seeking More
Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.​




 

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AVDL....this is about to conclude.

FDA's PDUFA date for AVDL (Oct 15) trading at 8.33 today.

The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) was created by Congress in 1992 and authorizes FDA to collect fees from companies that produce certain human drug and biological products. Since the passage of PDUFA, user fees have played an important role in expediting the drug approval process.

80% of companies that
receive PDUFA eventually get full approval...I still believe JAZZ will buy AVDL.
 

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$70 would be cool Boz, but the rate its going all my shares will be called away, lol. all good. China BMI came out yesterday, contraction, under 50! 47. Not seen since early 2020. Will see.

from Thomas report u kindly shared a page ago;

The US Dollar will crash in coming years, says Jeffry Gundlach and I think he is right. Emerging markets will become the next big play but not quite yet. Gold (GLD) will be a great hideout once it comes out of hibernation. China will soon return to outperforming the US. The dollars reserve currency status is at risk

yikes. lose its reserve currency status? dont think that happens in my lifetime but could b wrong. Would not be good for USA, no way. Certainly a depressed USD will be good for EM. India's chart is a solid uptrend


I can see it coming..but it'll be very hard to knock the dollar off.
The US economy has been shrinking the past 20 years but the dollar still increases as the settlement currency of international trade.
Right now the RBM is # 3 behind the EURO. As a reserve it accounts for 2% of the worlds foreign exchange reserve assets.

I agree ...it seems like it's a long ways off
 

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September 2, 2021

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merlin_190809579_28e154d9-505a-4fd0-8959-9ba98b96fc09-articleLarge.jpg
A voting rights bill in Texas passed despite strong opposition from some companies and others.Eric Gay/Associated Press


[h=2]Companies in Texas look to Washington[/h]

The Republican-controlled Texas Legislature this week passed a major billoverhauling election laws in the state, the latest of many to tighten voting rules this year. In Texas, as elsewhere, many businesses and industry groups have spoken out against the move, arguing that it is bad for the economy.

Texas has attracted many companies to relocate or expand operations there with its business-friendly policies. But in taking a stand on voting rights, some companies have invited scrutiny of their words and actions, especially with political donations. Balancing this against the tightening of some of the country’s strictest voting rules will test companies’ social pledges with financial imperatives. There is also the risk of political blowback for speaking out in a state with a Republican governor and a Republican senator embracing restrictive voting rules as a platform for potential presidential runs in 2024.

“It is about ensuring that all Texans trust the outcome of every election in Texas,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican who presides over the Texas Senate, said in a statement. In the day or so after the voting bill passed, the first reaction of Texas-based businesses that spoke out on ballot access appeared to be to pivot to Washington, putting pressure on Congress to pass federal voting protections.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

“We hoped for a different outcome,” an American Airlines spokesperson told DealBook. The Fort Worth-based company had sought legislation “making it easier to vote, not harder,” issuing a statement in April opposing the law. In May, the airline also joined Fair Elections Texas, a nonpartisan coalition of about two dozen businesses — including Microsoft, Unilever and Levi Strauss — that called on lawmakers to expand ballot access. A spokesperson for Dell, which is based in Round Rock, said it would encourage employees to vote and urge political leaders to “focus on staying committed to a healthy and welcoming business climate for all Texans.”

“Texans love Texas,” but they want Washington’s help, said Nathan Ryan, an Austin city commissioner and the C.E.O. of the consulting firm Blue Sky Partners, part of the Fair Elections Texas group. He and others are strategizing, he said, and will approach the Biden administration and congressional leaders to press for passage of two federal voting rights laws: the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the For the People Act. (Both passed the House but have stalled in the Senate amid a Republican filibuster.)

There is “an immediate need for a national minimum standard for voter protection,” said David Clunie of the Black Economic Alliance, an organization behind a letter in April with hundreds of signatories condemning laws restricting ballot access. New “categories of attack” are being created, like introducing criminal penalties for election administrators, said Sarah Walker of the nonpartisan group Secure Democracy, which businesses and industry groups turn to for help understanding these bills.

“The clock is ticking. The U.S. Senate must act,” said the Texas House member Rafael Anchia, a Democrat. The Texas bill will be put in place in about 90 days, he noted, calling on “those in the seat of democracy to pass a national voting rights bill.”


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

In other news, the Supreme Court last night decided not to block a Texas lawthat went into effect yesterday and prohibits most abortions after six weeks, making it the most restrictive in the nation.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Purdue Pharma is dissolved in a wide-ranging bankruptcy settlement. A judge approved the move to wind up the maker of the opioid OxyContin, and force the Sackler family, the company’s owners, to pay $4.5 billion to fund addiction treatment programs. Several states said they intended to appeal the settlement, which would end thousands of lawsuits and largely shield the Sacklers from Purdue’s opioid-related liability.

Remnants of Hurricane Ida batter the Northeast. Nearly every subway line in New York City was shut down and Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency as the city struggled with record-breaking rainfall. At least eight deaths were reported from flooding in the region, and hundreds of thousands of people were left without power. It is a foreboding vision, many said, of how climate change produces more extreme rainfall during storms.

The Justice Department may file a second antitrust case against Google. This one would focus on the tech giant’s power in the digital ad space, and would follow a government lawsuit last year that claimed that Google abused its position in search. Apple, which is fighting an antitrust legal action about its App Store, unveiled more changes yesterday that allow apps to do business directly with customers.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

A safety inquiry of Tesla’s driver-assistance system advances. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration yesterday ordered the electric vehicle maker to hand over data about its Autopilot system, part of an investigation into Tesla vehicles crashing into emergency vehicles (there was another crash this weekend).

Amazon is going on a hiring spree. The tech giant’s C.E.O., Andy Jassy, told Reuters in his first interview since taking over the e-commerce giant that he planed to expand its tech and corporate work force by 20 percent, or 55,000 employees. In other Amazon news, the company’s air cargo operation now runs up to 164 flights a day.


[h=2]Money back guarantee[/h]

In just under two weeks, shareholders in Atlas Crest Investment Corp., a special purpose acquisition company led by the investment banker Ken Moelis, will vote on a proposed merger with Archer Aviation, a maker of electric flying taxis. Atlas Crest and Archer, which is embroiled in a legal fight over trade secrets, cut the value of the deal by $1 billion, to $1.7 billion, in July. This week, they reduced the number of shares they planned to issue as part of the merger.

The latest move to sweeten the deal was in response to a report by ISS, the shareholder adviser, that recommended SPAC investors redeem their shares for cash instead of sticking around after the merger. A unique feature of SPACs is that they allow pre-merger shareholders to redeem their shares at the I.P.O. price. ISS said that because the SPAC’s shares weren’t trading “materially” above their offer price, investors were better off choosing “the relatively riskless redemption option.”

02db-spacredemptions-articleLarge.png

High redemptions are a thing now. As pre-merger SPACs’ share prices languish, for a variety of reasons, shareholders are redeeming in larger numbers. That deprives the target company of the cash raised by the SPAC. (The mergers are almost always approved, even if a majority of shareholders redeem.) For its part, Archer has $600 million in additional funds lined up from investors including United Airlines, alongside the $500 million it expected to tap in the SPAC.

By the numbers: An average of 58 percent of shares were redeemed in SPAC mergers that closed last month, according to SPAC Research. Among them was a SPAC run by the tech moguls Reid Hoffman and Mark Pincus, which completed its merger with Joby Aviation, a competitor of Archer in the flying taxi space, with 62 percent of investors redeeming their shares.


[h=2]“I have no idea what I’m going to do once these benefits stop.”[/h]

— Amanda Rinehart, one of nearly a half-million jobless workers in Pennsylvania who will lose federal emergency unemployment benefits when they expire this weekend. In other states, where the benefits were cut off earlier, job growth has been little different from that in states that retained the programs. Rinehart said she was considering borrowing money from her grandmother or selling blood plasma to feed her and her son.


merlin_193817640_305e7e5d-2fff-4873-99cc-d3b171606c77-articleLarge.jpg
Taliban fighters guarding the money changers outside the main currency exchange market in Kabul, Afghanistan.Victor J. Blue for The New York Times

[h=2]The Taliban’s money problems[/h]

The Taliban swiftly seized power in Afghanistan, but now they must overcome the country’s financial problems, The Times’s Alexandra Stevenson reports. During two decades of American control, the Afghan economy significantly increased in size but also became deeply dependent on foreign aid, which is now being cut off by the U.S. and others.


  • More than three-quarters of the $11 billion spent each year by the Afghan government was provided by foreign governments or donors.
  • Afghanistan exports $870 million a year in goods — mostly carpets, as well as figs, licorice and other agricultural products — which is small in relation to its $20 billion economy of nearly 40 million people.
  • Much of the country’s transactions flow through informal and unregulated dealers called hawalas that in the past have helped stabilize the currency, the afghani.

Financial stability is in short supply in Afghanistan. A freeze on the nation’s $9.4 billion in reserves held outside the country has caused the value of the afghani to plunge. Prices of flour and eggs have surged as much as 20 percent. Banks have long lines of people looking to withdraw their cash.

“We have conflict. We have war. This is another misery,” said Shah Mehrabi, a board member of Afghanistan’s central bank, about losing access to foreign funds. “You will have a financial crisis, and it will push families further into poverty.”

The Taliban will have to build foreign ties to shore up the country’s finances. With the U.S. and other Western nations not an option, the Taliban have established trade with Iran, and will also most likely seek out relations with China and Pakistan, who experts think are the group’s most likely allies. In the meantime, more of Afghanistan’s economy will go underground, which may make it hard to enforce a pledge to stamp out the nation’s illegal opium production, which is estimated to generate more than $1 billion a year in sales.


Want to share The New York Times with your friends and family? Invite them to enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Alex Rodriguez’s SPAC has ended talks over a $3 billion merger with Panini after the memorabilia maker lost its N.B.A. and N.F.L. licenses. (Bloomberg)
  • The private equity firm Apollo Global Management’s $5 billion acquisition of Yahoo from Verizon is now complete. (Yahoo Finance)
  • iFit Health, which owns the NordicTrack brand, has filed to go public, riding the boom in at-home exercise equipment. (Insider)
  • Walmart is teaming up with Instacart to make grocery deliveries to some parts of New York City. (WSJ)

Policy


  • Businesses are pushing the Biden administration to drop tariffs on Chinese goods and provide more clarity about the critical trade relationship. (NYT)
  • Some $90 billion of the government’s emergency pandemic aid was paid out to improper or fraudulent claims. (Bloomberg)
  • Workhorse, the electric truck maker, is under investigation from the S.E.C., making it the fourth inquiry into an electric automaker in the past year. (WSJ)
  • WhatsApp was fined nearly $270 million for breaching E.U. privacy rules. (CNBC)

Best of the rest


  • Climate change is bankrupting small towns across America. (NYT)
  • “After Proudly Celebrating Women, Alibaba Faces Reckoning Over Harassment” (NYT)
  • Employees at UBS who don’t want to get vaccinated against the coronavirus can apply to work from home, the bank’s C.E.O. said. (Bloomberg)
  • Joe Rogan, a podcasting giant who has been dismissive of vaccination, has Covid. (NYT)
  • As Goldman Sachs and others move some operations to Florida, a “Wall Street South” is emerging in West Palm Beach. (Bloomberg)


Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


imp
imp
imp
imp
imp

Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

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September 2, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


merlin_190809579_28e154d9-505a-4fd0-8959-9ba98b96fc09-articleLarge.jpg
A voting rights bill in Texas passed despite strong opposition from some companies and others.Eric Gay/Associated Press


Companies in Texas look to Washington

The Republican-controlled Texas Legislature this week passed a major billoverhauling election laws in the state, the latest of many to tighten voting rules this year. In Texas, as elsewhere, many businesses and industry groups have spoken out against the move, arguing that it is bad for the economy.

Texas has attracted many companies to relocate or expand operations there with its business-friendly policies. But in taking a stand on voting rights, some companies have invited scrutiny of their words and actions, especially with political donations. Balancing this against the tightening of some of the country’s strictest voting rules will test companies’ social pledges with financial imperatives. There is also the risk of political blowback for speaking out in a state with a Republican governor and a Republican senator embracing restrictive voting rules as a platform for potential presidential runs in 2024.

“It is about ensuring that all Texans trust the outcome of every election in Texas,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican who presides over the Texas Senate, said in a statement. In the day or so after the voting bill passed, the first reaction of Texas-based businesses that spoke out on ballot access appeared to be to pivot to Washington, putting pressure on Congress to pass federal voting protections.


ADVERTISEMENT


“We hoped for a different outcome,” an American Airlines spokesperson told DealBook. The Fort Worth-based company had sought legislation “making it easier to vote, not harder,” issuing a statement in April opposing the law. In May, the airline also joined Fair Elections Texas, a nonpartisan coalition of about two dozen businesses — including Microsoft, Unilever and Levi Strauss — that called on lawmakers to expand ballot access. A spokesperson for Dell, which is based in Round Rock, said it would encourage employees to vote and urge political leaders to “focus on staying committed to a healthy and welcoming business climate for all Texans.”

“Texans love Texas,” but they want Washington’s help, said Nathan Ryan, an Austin city commissioner and the C.E.O. of the consulting firm Blue Sky Partners, part of the Fair Elections Texas group. He and others are strategizing, he said, and will approach the Biden administration and congressional leaders to press for passage of two federal voting rights laws: the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the For the People Act. (Both passed the House but have stalled in the Senate amid a Republican filibuster.)

There is “an immediate need for a national minimum standard for voter protection,” said David Clunie of the Black Economic Alliance, an organization behind a letter in April with hundreds of signatories condemning laws restricting ballot access. New “categories of attack” are being created, like introducing criminal penalties for election administrators, said Sarah Walker of the nonpartisan group Secure Democracy, which businesses and industry groups turn to for help understanding these bills.

“The clock is ticking. The U.S. Senate must act,” said the Texas House member Rafael Anchia, a Democrat. The Texas bill will be put in place in about 90 days, he noted, calling on “those in the seat of democracy to pass a national voting rights bill.”


ADVERTISEMENT


In other news, the Supreme Court last night decided not to block a Texas lawthat went into effect yesterday and prohibits most abortions after six weeks, making it the most restrictive in the nation.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Purdue Pharma is dissolved in a wide-ranging bankruptcy settlement. A judge approved the move to wind up the maker of the opioid OxyContin, and force the Sackler family, the company’s owners, to pay $4.5 billion to fund addiction treatment programs. Several states said they intended to appeal the settlement, which would end thousands of lawsuits and largely shield the Sacklers from Purdue’s opioid-related liability.

Remnants of Hurricane Ida batter the Northeast. Nearly every subway line in New York City was shut down and Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency as the city struggled with record-breaking rainfall. At least eight deaths were reported from flooding in the region, and hundreds of thousands of people were left without power. It is a foreboding vision, many said, of how climate change produces more extreme rainfall during storms.

The Justice Department may file a second antitrust case against Google. This one would focus on the tech giant’s power in the digital ad space, and would follow a government lawsuit last year that claimed that Google abused its position in search. Apple, which is fighting an antitrust legal action about its App Store, unveiled more changes yesterday that allow apps to do business directly with customers.


ADVERTISEMENT


A safety inquiry of Tesla’s driver-assistance system advances. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration yesterday ordered the electric vehicle maker to hand over data about its Autopilot system, part of an investigation into Tesla vehicles crashing into emergency vehicles (there was another crash this weekend).

Amazon is going on a hiring spree. The tech giant’s C.E.O., Andy Jassy, told Reuters in his first interview since taking over the e-commerce giant that he planed to expand its tech and corporate work force by 20 percent, or 55,000 employees. In other Amazon news, the company’s air cargo operation now runs up to 164 flights a day.


Money back guarantee

In just under two weeks, shareholders in Atlas Crest Investment Corp., a special purpose acquisition company led by the investment banker Ken Moelis, will vote on a proposed merger with Archer Aviation, a maker of electric flying taxis. Atlas Crest and Archer, which is embroiled in a legal fight over trade secrets, cut the value of the deal by $1 billion, to $1.7 billion, in July. This week, they reduced the number of shares they planned to issue as part of the merger.

The latest move to sweeten the deal was in response to a report by ISS, the shareholder adviser, that recommended SPAC investors redeem their shares for cash instead of sticking around after the merger. A unique feature of SPACs is that they allow pre-merger shareholders to redeem their shares at the I.P.O. price. ISS said that because the SPAC’s shares weren’t trading “materially” above their offer price, investors were better off choosing “the relatively riskless redemption option.”

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High redemptions are a thing now. As pre-merger SPACs’ share prices languish, for a variety of reasons, shareholders are redeeming in larger numbers. That deprives the target company of the cash raised by the SPAC. (The mergers are almost always approved, even if a majority of shareholders redeem.) For its part, Archer has $600 million in additional funds lined up from investors including United Airlines, alongside the $500 million it expected to tap in the SPAC.

By the numbers: An average of 58 percent of shares were redeemed in SPAC mergers that closed last month, according to SPAC Research. Among them was a SPAC run by the tech moguls Reid Hoffman and Mark Pincus, which completed its merger with Joby Aviation, a competitor of Archer in the flying taxi space, with 62 percent of investors redeeming their shares.


“I have no idea what I’m going to do once these benefits stop.”

— Amanda Rinehart, one of nearly a half-million jobless workers in Pennsylvania who will lose federal emergency unemployment benefits when they expire this weekend. In other states, where the benefits were cut off earlier, job growth has been little different from that in states that retained the programs. Rinehart said she was considering borrowing money from her grandmother or selling blood plasma to feed her and her son.


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Taliban fighters guarding the money changers outside the main currency exchange market in Kabul, Afghanistan.Victor J. Blue for The New York Times

The Taliban’s money problems

The Taliban swiftly seized power in Afghanistan, but now they must overcome the country’s financial problems, The Times’s Alexandra Stevenson reports. During two decades of American control, the Afghan economy significantly increased in size but also became deeply dependent on foreign aid, which is now being cut off by the U.S. and others.


  • More than three-quarters of the $11 billion spent each year by the Afghan government was provided by foreign governments or donors.
  • Afghanistan exports $870 million a year in goods — mostly carpets, as well as figs, licorice and other agricultural products — which is small in relation to its $20 billion economy of nearly 40 million people.
  • Much of the country’s transactions flow through informal and unregulated dealers called hawalas that in the past have helped stabilize the currency, the afghani.

Financial stability is in short supply in Afghanistan. A freeze on the nation’s $9.4 billion in reserves held outside the country has caused the value of the afghani to plunge. Prices of flour and eggs have surged as much as 20 percent. Banks have long lines of people looking to withdraw their cash.

“We have conflict. We have war. This is another misery,” said Shah Mehrabi, a board member of Afghanistan’s central bank, about losing access to foreign funds. “You will have a financial crisis, and it will push families further into poverty.”

The Taliban will have to build foreign ties to shore up the country’s finances. With the U.S. and other Western nations not an option, the Taliban have established trade with Iran, and will also most likely seek out relations with China and Pakistan, who experts think are the group’s most likely allies. In the meantime, more of Afghanistan’s economy will go underground, which may make it hard to enforce a pledge to stamp out the nation’s illegal opium production, which is estimated to generate more than $1 billion a year in sales.


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THE SPEED READ

Deals


  • Alex Rodriguez’s SPAC has ended talks over a $3 billion merger with Panini after the memorabilia maker lost its N.B.A. and N.F.L. licenses. (Bloomberg)
  • The private equity firm Apollo Global Management’s $5 billion acquisition of Yahoo from Verizon is now complete. (Yahoo Finance)
  • iFit Health, which owns the NordicTrack brand, has filed to go public, riding the boom in at-home exercise equipment. (Insider)
  • Walmart is teaming up with Instacart to make grocery deliveries to some parts of New York City. (WSJ)

Policy


  • Businesses are pushing the Biden administration to drop tariffs on Chinese goods and provide more clarity about the critical trade relationship. (NYT)
  • Some $90 billion of the government’s emergency pandemic aid was paid out to improper or fraudulent claims. (Bloomberg)
  • Workhorse, the electric truck maker, is under investigation from the S.E.C., making it the fourth inquiry into an electric automaker in the past year. (WSJ)
  • WhatsApp was fined nearly $270 million for breaching E.U. privacy rules. (CNBC)

Best of the rest


  • Climate change is bankrupting small towns across America. (NYT)
  • “After Proudly Celebrating Women, Alibaba Faces Reckoning Over Harassment” (NYT)
  • Employees at UBS who don’t want to get vaccinated against the coronavirus can apply to work from home, the bank’s C.E.O. said. (Bloomberg)
  • Joe Rogan, a podcasting giant who has been dismissive of vaccination, has Covid. (NYT)
  • As Goldman Sachs and others move some operations to Florida, a “Wall Street South” is emerging in West Palm Beach. (Bloomberg)


Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

lol - they actually fucking believe this bullshit:



  • Climate change is bankrupting small towns across America. (NYT)


  • Climate change is bankrupting small towns across America. (NYT)
 

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Yeah, I'm not selling this unless it's forced into bankruptcy by the CCP.

At some point the party and high ranking members will be very happy $$$ with chunks they've already extracted.
For BABA it's been a "if you can't beat um have them join in".....$$$$

greed is universal.
 

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gtd.png

Global Market Comments
September 2, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MANY THANKS FOR YOUR CONCERNS)
(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL)
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR), (BYND)

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Many Thanks for Your ConcernsSorry for the late letter this morning. I received a call from Cal Fires yesterday asking for a spotter pilot near the Lake Tahoe region.

So, the early AM found me flying a wide circle around the Sierra foothills with a pair of binoculars and a GPS calling in new smoke plumes to Central Command in Sacramento.

When you get near the big fires, the turbulence is incredible and you wonder if the plane can hold together. These are things better observed from a distance.

Thank you, Clyde Cessna for building such great aircraft!

Thankfully, the kids are old enough to drive themselves to school. I gave them $20 for dinner in case I didn’t come back.

Don’t worry about me. I evacuated out of Lake Tahoe weeks ago, as even back then, the smoke was so thick that the air was unbreathable. All of Lake Tahoe has now been evacuated, except for Incline Village at the northern tip.

There are now 70 bulldozers building a giant fire break at South Lake Tahoe. The 25,000 residents have been moved to emergency evacuation centers throughout northern Nevada.

The casinos are all closed but the hotels are open to house firefighting and support teams. Some teams have been lost to Covid. The water bombers are knocking the daylights out of the West Shore.

Welcome to the nightmare scenario. This is a disaster on a biblical scale.

At home, we are watching the TV, amazed at videos of 600-pound bears on fire running out of the mountains.

In the meantime, I have received dozens of emails, phone calls, and text messages from subscribers asking about my safety.

Don’t worry, all is well here out in San Francisco. But thanks for asking!


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The View from Incline Village, Nevada
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Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than OilIf you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So, investment in freshwater infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme.

One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights.

Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only 2.5% is fresh, and three-quarters of that is locked up in ice at the North and South poles. In places like China, with a quarter of the world's population, up to 90% of the fresh water is already polluted, some irretrievably so by heavy metals.

Some 18% of the world population lacks access to potable water, and demand is expected to rise by 40% in the next 20 years.

Aquifers in the US, which took nature millennia to create, are approaching exhaustion especially in Northern India and California’s Central Valley. While membrane osmosis technologies exist to convert seawater into fresh, they use ten times more energy than current treatment processes, a real problem if you don't have any, and will easily double the end cost of water to consumers.

While it may take 16 pounds of grain to produce a pound of beef, it takes a staggering 2,416 gallons of water to do the same. Beef exports are really a way of shipping water abroad in highly concentrated form. Hence, the spectacular performance of fake meat producer Beyond Meat (BYND) this year (try one, they’re not so bad).

The UN says that $11 billion a year is needed for water infrastructure investment, and $15 billion of the 2008 US stimulus package was similarly spent.

It says a lot that when I went to the University of California at Berkeley School of Engineering to research this piece, most of the experts in the field had already been retained by major hedge funds!

At the top of the shopping list to participate here should be the Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF (CGW), which has appreciated by 14% since the October low.

You can also visit the PowerShares Water Resource Portfolio (PHO), the First Trust ISE Water Index Fund (FIW), or the individual stocks Veolia Environment (VE), Tetra-Tech (TTEK), and Pentair (PNR).

Who has the world's greatest per capita water resources? Siberia, which could become a major exporter of H2O to China in the decades to come.


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[h=2]
Waterfall-e1440505746456.jpg


The New Liquid Gold?
[/h]​


Quote of the Day“Every recession sows the seeds for the next business recovery, and every recovery sows the seeds of the next recession,” said hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors.

QOTD-Oct10-diary.png



This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
For full disclosures click here at:

http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
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Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be s




 

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September 3, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


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Apple’s C.E.O., Tim Cook, wants to make peace with antitrust claims over the company’s App Store.Lucy Nicholson/Reuters


[h=2]Apple’s small change[/h]

On an Apple device, the one thing you cannot do in Netflix’s app is subscribe to Netflix. A message on the app’s home screen explains this and encourages new users to return “when you’re a member.” It’s up to them to figure out how to do that.

This confusing setup is an effort to comply with Apple’s rules banning apps on its platform from directing users to make purchases elsewhere, and avoiding Apple’s 30 percent commission. But it’s likely to change soon. Apple announced on Wednesday that it would allow some apps, like Netflix and Spotify, to direct their users to payment methods outside of the App Store. That’s the second concession to app developers that Apple has made in the past week, suggesting it’s part of a deliberate campaign. To what end?

Analysts who track Apple said that these changes won’t significantly affect the tech giant’s $20 billion App Store business. Rather, The Times’s Kellen Browning and Daisuke Wakabayashi report, the moves are a strategic retreat, an effort by Apple to repel threats that would be more damaging to its bottom line. (Apple declined to comment.)

Apple is under pressure from regulators around the world who have accused it of exerting too much control over developers who sell products in its App Store. The South Korean Parliament on Tuesday passed a bill that would ban app stores from forcing developers to use only their proprietary payment systems. Apple also faces antitrust investigations in the U.S., the E.U., Britainand India. And it is awaiting the verdict in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games, which sought to avoid Apple’s commissions altogether.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

It won’t concede so easily on its cash cow: game revenue. According to Epic’s lawyers, 81 percent of Apple’s App Store revenue came from games in 2016. Apple’s C.E.O., Tim Cook, said on the witness stand in May that the “majority” of App Store revenue still comes from game revenue. Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, estimates the money Apple collects from apps for consuming content — the type of app covered by the latest concession — is negligible.

There are more substantive changes Apple could make, and is most likely hoping to avoid. It could reduce its commission on in-app purchases, allow other companies to install app stores on iOS devices or allow customers to download apps directly from the internet. The changes Apple has made are aren’t “a real solution,” Daniel Ek, the C.E.O. of Spotify, said yesterday in a tweet. “Our goal is to restore competition once and for all, not one arbitrary, self-serving step at a time.”

In other news, a federal judge yesterday rejected Apple’s request to dismiss a lawsuit brought by users who say that the company’s voice assistant, Siri, improperly recorded conversations and passed the data to third parties.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

The labor market gets a health check. Data on August job growth comes out today, with economists expecting a slowdown from June’s and July’s steep gains. But the full effect that the Delta variant of the coronavirus has had on hiring activity may not yet be reflected in the numbers, which were collected early in the month. The Fed is monitoring employment data even closer than usual as it assesses when it can start to pull back on its emergency stimulus measures.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

The jury for Elizabeth Holmes’s trial is sworn in. Seven men and five women were chosen to decide the Theranos founder’s fate. Holmes faces 12 counts of fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud over false claims she made about Theranos’s blood tests and business. Her trial in San Jose, Calif., will begin next week and is set to last for at least 13 weeks. If convicted, Holmes faces up to 20 years in prison.

General Motors idles factories as a chip shortage takes its toll. In yet another sign that the global shortage of parts is taking longer to resolve, production of some of G.M.’s most profitable vehicles will be suspended while the carmaker temporarily shutters eight plants in North America. Ford is scaling back pickup production, and Toyota cut production by 40 percent this month.

Walmart is raising wages for some 565,000 workers. The retailer’s average wage will rise to $16.40 per hour, though its minimum starting wage, which will rise to $12 per hour from $11, still lags competitors like Target. It’s the latest example of employers trying to attract and retain employees amid labor shortages.

New moves shake up Asian exchanges. Singapore will allow SPAC listingsstarting today, making it the first major exchange in Asia to welcome the blank-check firms, despite increased scrutiny of them by regulators elsewhere. In China, a new stock exchange aimed at small and medium-size businesses is set to open in Beijing, as the country tries to discourage local companies from listing abroad.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


[h=2]A billion-dollar tax settlement at a well-connected fund[/h]

Renaissance Technologies, a pioneering quantitative hedge fund, said a group of current and former insiders agreed to pay as much as $7 billion in back taxes and penalties to the I.R.S. The settlement, ending a decade-long dispute, is one of the biggest in history. It may give a boost to those, including President Biden, who say the I.R.S. is underfunded and unequipped to collect more taxes from the wealthy.

The founder of RenTech, Jim Simons, and a former C.E.O., Robert Mercer, are the biggest names in the settlement. The financiers regularly appear on lists of the highest-paid hedge fund investors, and their political activities add extra intrigue: Simons, who stepped down last year as chairman of the firm, is a longtime donor to Democrats, including to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, while Mercer is a major backer of Republicans, including Donald Trump. (Mercer also bankrolled Cambridge Analytica.)

RenTech pioneered the use of sophisticated math equations and computer algorithms to pick investments and time trades, which has made its flagship Medallion fund one of the industry’s best performers. The I.R.S. claimed that RenTech, in the mid-2000s, used financial instruments called basket options to make short-term gains look like long-term ones, which are subject to lower capital gains taxes.

The I.R.S. ruled in 2010 that the use of batch options was abusive, and a Senate inquiry in 2014 investigated RenTech’s and others’ use of the strategy. RenTech’s C.E.O., Peter Brown, told investors in a letter yesterday that the firm’s board concluded it would be better to resolve the matter with the I.R.S. than risk harsher penalties that could result from litigation.

The settlement comes as some argue the ultrawealthy are hiding huge amounts of tax from the I.R.S. A study this year by academics and researchers from the agency found that the rich were able to hide as much as one-fifth of their annual income from tax collectors. Biden has proposed increasing the I.R.S.’s budget by $80 billion over the next decade, which the White House said could generate $700 billion in additional revenue. But the Congressional Budget Office said yesterday that the potential bounty from increased I.R.S. funding would raise $200 billion, a significant but lower amount.


[h=2]“Cash has been trash for a long time, but there are now new contenders for the investment garbage can. Intermediate to long-term bond funds are in that trash receptacle for sure, but will stocks follow?”[/h]

— Bill Gross, the famous bond investor, in his latest investment outlook.


[h=2]In the papers[/h]

Some of the academic research that caught our eye this week, in one sentence:


  • Citibank’s accidental $1 billion payment to creditors of Revlon could permanently alter corporate debt contracts. (Eric Talley)
  • The workers least likely to sign up to mentorship programs benefit the most from them. (Jason Sandvik, et al.)
  • “The value of space during a pandemic.” (Max Hyman and Ian Savage)


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Surveying the scene on Thursday in the Bronx.Gregg Vigliotti for The New York Times

[h=2]The unthinkable becomes the norm[/h]

As the Northeast took stock of the deadly impact of Hurricane Ida, leaders at all levels acknowledged that extreme weather events were posing an increasingly urgent threat. “There are no more cataclysmic ‘unforeseeable’ events,” Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York said yesterday. “We need to foresee these in advance and be prepared.”

In New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut, at least 43 people died after several inches of rain flooded subway platforms and turned cars and basements into death traps. Around the Gulf Coast, where Ida made landfall, the storm knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in Louisiana and left 16 people dead in the region.

The weather will get more extreme as the planet gets hotter, climate experts have warned, making them unsurprised by the record downpour generated by Ida’s remnants. “The trend is becoming increasingly evident,” said Aiguo Dai, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, SUNY. “This is exactly what both theory and climate models predicted.”

Global warming is exposing “ever larger communities to extreme climate events,” according to Swiss Re. Natural catastrophes resulted in $40 billion in insured losses in the first half of 2021, the most in a decade.

The planet is facing two separate, but interlinked problems, climate and resilience experts said. First, governments have not spent enough time and money preparing for the effects of climate change. Second, there’s only so much the world can do to adapt, and without a sharp drop in greenhouse gas emissions, countries may run up against the limits of resilience.

Read more:




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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Chevron executives have reportedly met with Engine No. 1, the activist hedge fund that won three seats on Exxon’s board this year. (WSJ)
  • For retail traders, the SPAC boom has turned into a SPAC bust. (WSJ)
  • Reddit is reportedly looking to enlist bankers and lawyers to prepare for a $15 billion I.P.O. in New York. (Reuters)
  • The U.S. arm of the crypto exchange Binance is planning to go public within the next three years, its C.E.O. said. (The Information)

Policy


  • Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s prime minister, is stepping aside after less than a year in office, bowing to public dissatisfaction with his handling of the pandemic and the Olympic Games. (NYT)
  • Virgin Galactic’s spacecraft are grounded while the F.A.A. investigates irregularities in the flight that took the billionaire Richard Branson to space. (WSJ)
  • JPMorgan Chase is paying nearly $30 million to settle a tax fraud case in France. (FT)

Best of the rest


  • Be prepared and never wing it: Janet Yellen shares her career tips. (WaPo)
  • The actress Reese Witherspoon is the latest celebrity to hop on the crypto train. (Twitter)
  • The poet Amanda Gorman’s Estée Lauder contract is a big deal, in every sense of the word. (NYT)
  • Service businesses in city centers will have to adapt as offices are unlikely to be as full after the pandemic as they were before. (NYT)
  • “Goodbye to the ‘Office Mom’” (NYT)


Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


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