Intersting thoughts

[Bozzie]

hummmm Bitcoins not my thing but this is an interesting turn in opinion toward Bitcoin.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-says-bitcoin-is-worth-zero.html

 

[CoachCB]

hummmm Bitcoins not my thing but this is an interesting turn in opinion toward Bitcoin.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-says-bitcoin-is-worth-zero.html

He may or may not be right, but BTC is here to stay - one way or another. So is crypto currency.

 

[Bozzie]

He may or may not be right, but BTC is here to stay - one way or another. So is crypto currency.

Agree..ETH is the only one I'd consider but not seriously.
sold some stock this week..

SUNL
WKHS
Bought
BABA at 207.

GREAT READ!


[h=1]Only the Rich Could Love This Economic Recovery[/h]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/12/opinion/covid-fed-qe-inequality.html

​

 

[Bozzie]

Price today 6.49 This company has no intention of bringing product to market.

AEMD did a direct offering on the news/ Reddit rumor that the filter could be a covid treatment. (@ 9.00 $.. 1,300,000 on a 12 million float ..announced Friday)

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/lo...-promising-results-in-covid-patients/2629619/

it's a fishy company data wise and this data looks thin at best company, also the stock has been reversed a few times ..trading @ 2.25 last week.

Touched 2.75 yesterday...Look out if this hits 2.25 again.

 

[Bozzie]

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Chinese state-backed firms are exploring bids for a stake in Unisplendour Corp, a cloud computing infrastructure firm, that could fetch as much as $7.7 billion, people familiar with the matter said.

This would be the second BABA deal this month making partners outa the State party..Maybe BABA's back in favor.
With earnings coming out and the CCP backing off....could be time this runs.


https://www.reuters.com/technology/...our-stake-worth-up-77-bln-sources-2021-07-13/

 

[Bozzie]

	Read in Browser
LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Top News Ring the register? Shutterstock​ Get ready for the second quarter earnings season, which formally kicks off today as JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) release results. Other major financial institutions will also report this week, including Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday. The banking industry is likely to unveil some blowout results, with S&P 500 financial sector earnings doubling year over year, though much of that growth will be measured against a time when much of the economy was brought to a pandemic standstill. Bigger picture: Banks recently announced they would boost their dividend payouts after the Fed gave major lenders a thumbs-up on their most recent round of stress tests. "Many of the key components and fundamentals are lining up in the bank's favor," said Michael Bapis, managing director of Vios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital. "On the top six banks, the deposits are up roughly 30% since the start of 2020, you're seeing the dividend yields up roughly 40% on the banks, and they’re very well capitalized." Some are exercising more caution. While bank earnings are expected to double this quarter, lackluster trading revenue in Q2 could weigh on performance, as well as large amounts of "credit loss provisions" and cash stockpiling (seen at JPMorgan) needed to stave off inflation. "High expectations for earnings and each company's forward guidance will push markets higher or disappointment may create a small pullback in equity markets," added Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. "Eyes will be on the major banks to set the tone for the next few weeks of earnings." On the economic calendar: The latest figures on inflation will be reported today as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Consumer Price Index for June. The data is likely to be driven by reopening categories, with another whopping 4.9% print for June (after a 5% gain Y/Y in May). It will also be the first CPI since Fed minutes showed some concern among policymakers over rising prices, with "a substantial majority" of FOMC officials seeing inflation risks "tilted to the upside." Trending Now hiring As a labor shortage takes hold in the U.S., many industries that have been hit the hardest are offering perks to lure back workers. Restaurants, bars and hotels created 89K new openings in May before hiring 340K workers in June, but leisure and hospitality was also one of the only sectors where resignations continued to accelerate. Scores of Americans who lost their jobs have yet to even begin looking around, or take offers, with job openings remaining at a record high of 9.2M in May. Will it work? McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) franchises, which own 95% of the chain's 13,450 U.S. restaurants, are adding emergency childcare and other benefits like wages increases, paid time off and tuition costs to draw enough staff. The initiative could also help improve the Golden Arches' image as an employer. It follows discussions throughout the year on an employee program surrounding training and workplace flexibility, which individual restaurants are now adopting. McDonald's is closely followed in the industry for its moves on pay as it's one of the largest private employers in the country with over 800K restaurant workers. Back in May, the company said it would increase pay in its corporate-owned restaurants to $11 to $17 an hour to stay competitive. It also expects average hourly wages to be $15 by 2024 and will make a multimillion-dollar investment into the recent efforts of its franchisees. It's not alone: Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) announced last month it would boost starting pay to an average of $15 an hour, while Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) raised hourly wages at more than half of their U.S. restaurants this year. Papa John's (NASDAQ:PZZA) and P.F. Chang's have also boosted incentives. In a sign of the times, workers this weekend at a Burger King (NYSE:QSR) in Lincoln, Nebraska, put a message on the outdoor letter board that read, "WE ALL QUIT - SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE." Sponsored by Northern Trust Should you realize capital gains now? The prospect of higher tax rates has investors rightfully concerned about their bottom line. Learn how to address unrealized gains in your portfolio and implement other tax-efficient investing strategies. Learn more. Commodities Timberrr! Supply chain shortages, coupled with a swift economic recovery, saw prices of many items soar during the pandemic. One of the most notable increases was for lumber, which is a significant material for many industries including homebuilding. While the historic run has come to an end, it still could take a while for prices to go back to their pre-pandemic levels. Update: Lumber futures (LB1:COM) surrendered all of their astronomical 2021 gains on Monday, settling down 5.6% to $712.90 per 1,000 board feet in Chicago. Supply and demand are behind the latest moves as homebuilders and DIYers started to pare back on projects due to prices, while sawmills upped their production levels for the same reason. In fact, new home construction and home improvement sales in May were 8.8% and 8.1% lower than their highs seen in March. At one point this year, lumber futures were even trading as high as $1,733.50 per 1,000 board feet, more than quadruple the level of a year earlier. "We could be in for a few more weeks of declines. Mill production has ramped up as the labor related issues from COVID dissipate," said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI. "There's a lot of inventory buildup at the mills that has to clear." Wood has even turned lower as wildfires rage and railcars are gridlocked in British Columbia, a major producing region. Where do we go from here? Lumber futures have mostly in the $200-$400 per 1,000 board feet range before the pandemic, and each dip in the wholesale market could take weeks or months to be reflected in store aisles. Lumber prices are undergoing a "paradigm shift" and are in the process of determining a new and much higher average price level as a result, according to lumber trading strategist Greg Kuta of Westline Capital Strategies. Scott Reaves of Domain Timber Advisors even forecasts prices could stay above $500 per 1,000 board feet for the next 5-8 years due to robust homebuilding across the U.S. (8 comments) Energy Oil risks "Oil markets are likely to remain volatile until there is clarity on OPEC+ production policy. And volatility does not help ensure orderly and secure energy transitions - nor is it in the interest of either producers or consumers," the IEA wrote in its latest monthly report. "While prices at these levels could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and help accelerate energy transitions, they could also put a drag on the economic recovery, particularly in emerging and developing countries." Refresher: OPEC+ abandoned talks last week that would have boosted oil supply in monthly installments from August after the UAE rejected the plans, insisting its current baseline was too low. OPEC+ has not yet made progress in resolving the dispute, making the prospect of another policy meeting this week less likely. Meanwhile, the IEA still anticipates global oil demand to rise by 5.4M barrels per day this year and by another 3M barrels in 2022, largely unchanged from last month's forecast. "Although bullish sentiment has been somewhat tempered recently, oil prices are still comfortably holding above $70/bbl," said Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates. "Whether this remains so depends wholly on the next move by the OPEC+ alliance." Brent crude futures (CO1:COM) rose another 0.8% to $75.75/bbl overnight, while U.S. WTI futures (CL1:COM) were ahead by 0.8% to $74.67/bbl. Go deeper: Tensions between the UAE and OPEC leader Saudi Arabia - which controls a third of the group's total crude reserves - are going beyond oil. Over the past decade, the Saudis and Emiratis have coordinated on a number of major initiatives, like countering the Arab Spring, boycotting Qatar and establishing a sales tax across the Gulf Cooperation Council. However, the UAE has been flexing its own geopolitical aspirations, including withdrawing support for the Saudi military alliance in Yemen and the signing of the Abraham Accords with Israel. The Saudis have meanwhile called for foreign companies to move their regional headquarters to Riyadh (from Dubai) or risk lucrative government contracts, and following the OPEC impasse, the Kingdom moved to restrict citizens' travel to the UAE. Healthcare Genetically modified Gene editing offers to change our world in many profound ways, though there are grave risks associated with the medical technology. An expert panel from the World Health Organization met yesterday to strongly oppose the genetic modifications in humans that will pass on to future generations. The committee was established in late 2018 after a Chinese scientist claimed he had performed gene editing in twin babies in an attempt to give them protection against HIV. Quote: "No-one in their right mind should contemplate doing it because the techniques are simply not safe enough or efficient enough and we're not ready in terms of looking at all the ethical considerations," said the panelist, Robin Lovell-Badge of Britain's Francis Crick Institute. Late last month, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) took the biotech world by storm after the company posted positive early-stage trial results for its gene-editing candidate NTLA-2001 in a rare disease called transthyretin amyloidosis. Researchers injected a CRISPR drug directly into candidates' bloodstream and the editing technology was able to nearly shut off production of the toxic protein generated by their livers. With results indicating the efficacy and safety of in-vivo CRISPR genome editing for the first time in humans, companies relying on gene-editing technology surged in the following days. Outlook: The expert panel from the WHO is also calling for a generous distribution of gene editing technologies to enable the poorer countries to benefit from the medical field that recently gained worldwide attention. It's also backing efforts to develop global standards on gene-editing, the establishment of an international registry of experiments and a way for whistleblowers to report their concerns. (11 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong +1.6%. China +0.5%. India +0.8%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +0.8% at $74.67. Gold +0.1% at $1807.90. Bitcoin -2.3% at $33312. Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged 1.36% Today's Economic Calendar 6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 8:30 Consumer Price Index 8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales 12:00 PM Fed's Bostic Speech 12:45 PM Fed's Kashkari Speech 1:00 PM Results of $24B, 30-Year Note Auction 2:00PM Treasury Statement 2:30 PM Fed's Bostic Speech 2:50 PM Fed's Rosengren Speech Companies reporting earnings today » ​ What else is happening... Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) falls back to Earth after capital raise. France to require health pass for bars, cafes, attractions and travel. J&J (NYSE:JNJ) vaccine: FDA adds neurological disorder warning. Israel approves third Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) shot for the immuno-compromised. Reports... Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) in talks over $15B-plus deal for SAS. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) rises after Musk testifies on SolarCity acquisition. Former TikTok (BDNCE) CEO: Need higher return for Chinese investments. Disney (NYSE:DIS) raises price of ESPN+ by a dollar to $6.99 per month. Boeing (NYSE:BA) production problems? FAA mandates additional 787 fixes. Lithium stocks catch fire; Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) rallies to new highs.

​

 

[Bozzie]

July 14, 2021

Good morning. Apologies for the delayed send — we ran into some technical difficulties. We hope your computers behave more predictably than ours today. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

Will he or won’t he use the “T” word? (“Transitory,” that is.)Pool photo by Graeme Jennings/Reuters

[h=2]Assessing inflation in transit[/h]

As everything from airline tickets to used cars, fresh fruit and lumber has gotten more expensive over the past several months, policymakers in Washington have repeatedly described the pop in prices as “transitory.” That word is losing its traction.

Inflation is running at a 13-year high, according to the latest stats published yesterday. While the Biden administration continues to say that price increases are temporary, many inside the White House now believe that high inflation could be with us for a year or two. That is not, well, transitory, unless you are talking about a long trip.

Jay Powell, the Fed chair, is scheduled to testify in the House today and the Senate tomorrow. Should he call inflation transitory, expect blowback. Maybe he could try “persistently impermanent” or “enduringly ephemeral” instead.

Corporate executives are preparing for a longer spell of inflation. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase told analysts on the bank’s earnings call yesterday that inflation was “a little worse than the Fed thinks.” On PepsiCo’s call, Hugh Johnston, the company’s C.F.O., said the food and beverage giant was likely to raise prices soon. “Is there somewhat more inflationary pressures out there? There is,” he said. “Are we going to be pricing to deal with it? We certainly are.”

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Inflation has long been seen as the economic villain. That view is changing. For those who worry about growing inequality, inflation might actually be a salve, up to a point. A 2014 study of developed economies found that as inflation rose, income inequality tended to shrink. Inflation could be as high as 13 percent, the research found, and still act as an equalizer, shifting the benefits of economic growth toward lower-income individuals.

Wages often rise with prices, as they have in recent months. What doesn’t rise with inflation are college loans and other debt. Reducing the burden of debt with higher incomes could help improve many Americans’ finances.

Now might be a good time for modestly higher inflation, said the Harvard economist Ken Rogoff, who called for higher inflation to reset the economy after the housing bubble burst. You should think of inflation like the weather, he told DealBook. If it hasn’t rained for a long time, a major downpour is probably not a worry. A little bit of singing in the rain might be warranted.

Are you worried about inflation? If so, what are you doing about it? Let us know at dealbook@nytimes.com. Include your name and location and we may feature your response in a future newsletter.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Senate Democrats propose a $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill. The plan, which would have to pass along party lines, addresses issues like climate change and Medicaid that a separate $600 billion bipartisan bill does not. The big question: Will Joe Manchin come on board?

Deal makers take a victory lap. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reported big increases in their M.&A. advisory fees in the second quarter. (Bank of America followed suit in results out today.) Some analysts worry that the pace is unsustainable — particularly given a new focus in Washington on antitrust.

What happened to REvil? The Russian gang, which is accused of two big ransomware attacks this year, has gone offline, perhaps because of pressure on Moscow to crack down on cybercrime. But those whose data is still being held ransom by REvil may be left in the lurch.

Streaming services rack up Emmy nominations. Netflix ran neck and neck with HBO for the most nominations this year, while the top three nominated series — Netflix’s “The Crown” and Disney+’s “The Mandalorian” and “WandaVision” — were all on streaming platforms.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Elon Musk thinks Tesla should make more than cars. In his second day testifying in a shareholder lawsuit over the company’s $2 billion takeover of SolarCity, Musk defended the deal by expounding on his corporate ambitions. “The goal is not to be a car company,” he said.

[h=2]The S.E.C. takes a shot at a space SPAC[/h]

The S.E.C. has brought one of its first major enforcement actions targeting a SPAC since the start of the blank-check boom. The agency said yesterday it had reached a civil settlement with several parties involved in the planned merger of Momentus, a space transportation company, and the SPAC Stable Road Acquisition.

The announcement follows the S.E.C.’s warning this year about “untested, speculative, misleading or even fraudulent” financial forecasts published during SPAC mergers. It comes as the S.E.C. is considering new rules for SPACs and is looking into potential conflicts at banks.

The S.E.C. accused the takeover target of misleading claims and its acquirer of insufficient due diligence. Momentus told investors that it had successfully tested its propulsion technology in space, when in fact the test had failed, the S.E.C. said. Stable Road repeated those statements in public filings pertaining to its deal. “The fact that Momentus lied to Stable Road does not absolve Stable Road of its failure to undertake adequate due diligence,” said Gary Gensler, the S.E.C. chairman.

The SPAC can still go ahead with the deal, so long as the parties settling the agreement pay $8 million in penalties, forfeit certain founder shares and allow outside investors to get out of the deal before it is put to a shareholder vote.

[h=2]“The more it shares about what happens on its platform, the more it risks exposing uncomfortable truths that could further damage its image.”[/h]

— Kevin Roose, The Times’s tech columnist, on Facebook’s “data wars.”

[h=2]Martin Shkreli wins — for now[/h]

Activist investors had hoped to persuade fellow shareholders of the drug company Phoenixus to sever ties to its founder, the “Pharma Bro” Martin Shkreli, by voting out its board this week. They failed.

The activists’ candidates were handily defeated, with an average of 70 percent of shares voted against them, according to a letter to investors. It was always a tough goal: Shkreli owns a roughly 44 percent stake in Phoenixus (originally known as Turing Pharmaceuticals), and is allowed to vote despite being imprisoned for securities fraud. “Allowing Martin to vote his forfeited shares is an incredible injustice,” Jason Aryeh, a leader of the dissident group that thinks the current board is too close to Shkreli, told DealBook.

Phoenixus’s chairman and C.E.O., Averill Powers, was the only incumbent director to lose re-election — with 96 percent of shares voted against him. The company didn’t return a request for comment.

The activists are betting they may win later. Aryeh said the group planned to call for another vote once a judge overseeing a creditor’s lawsuit against Shkreli formally appointed a receiver to take away his shares to settle his debts.

Ursula von der Leyen has a plan.Christian Hartmann/Reuters​

[h=2]Europe’s carbon politics[/h]

The European Union will try to defy its reputation for being slow and indecisive today when officials unveil a plan to beat the rest of the world in cutting carbon emissions, The Times’s Jack Ewing writes for DealBook from Frankfurt.

The E.U.’s blueprint, branded “Fit for 55,” calls for its 27 members states to cut their output of greenhouse gases 55 percent by 2030, when compared with 1990 levels, by setting tougher targets for almost every industry, especially those blamed for contributing the most to global warming, like automakers, airlines, steel producers and energy firms.

The E.U.’s target is more aggressive than that of the United States, which committed to reduce emissions by 40 percent to 43 percent over the same period, but behind that of Britain, which pledged a 68 percent reduction. China, the world’s largest emitter, has said only that it aims for emissions to peak by 2030.

What’s in the plan: Automakers will face pressure to phase out internal combustion engines sooner; airlines will be compelled to use synthetic fuels; steel makers will need to pay more for emissions credits; and electricity producers will be pushed to speed up the switch to wind, solar and hydropower. Most contentiously, a border carbon adjustment tax would impose tariffs on the emissions linked with products imported from outside the E.U.

Expect furious lobbying as the plan makes its way through the legislative process in Brussels and national capitals, given how many interests are at stake. The plan could also meet resistance from major trading partners like the U.S. because it would penalize imports from countries seen as having lower environmental standards.

There will also be cash. E.U. governments will be able to draw on a fund worth 750 billion euros, or $890 billion, to make the transition to cleaner energy. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has made the “European Green Deal” one of her top priorities and can draw on support from Europeans increasingly alarmed by wildfires, record hot summers, severe storms and other tangible evidence of the toll of climate change. The diplomatic cost of today’s move is seen as a small price to pay.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

Broadcom has reportedly ended its effort to buy the analytics company SAS Institute. (WSJ) LeBron James’s entertainment company, SpringHill, is said to be weighing a sale at a valuation approaching $750 million. (The Information) Alex Rodriguez’s SPAC is reportedly in talks to merge with Panini, a maker of sports collectibles. (Bloomberg)

Policy

Norwegian Cruise Line sued Florida over the state banning companies from requiring customers to be vaccinated. (NYT) A judge blocked Maryland’s bid to cut off federal unemployment benefits two months early. (NYT) “Have you no shame?” President Biden made an impassioned speech yesterday on attempts to restrict voting access. (NYT)

Crime and punishment

Stephen Calk, a former Chicago bank chief, was convicted of bribery for pushing loans to the former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort in hopes of getting a role in the Trump administration. (NYT) A unit of TIAA will pay $97 million to settle charges that it persuaded investors to move money from company retirement plans to higher-fee plans. (NYT)

Best of the rest

Apple is reportedly partnering with Goldman Sachs to create a “buy now, pay later” lending service. (Bloomberg) Big news in the media world: Zenia Mucha, Disney’s much-feared chief brand protector, is stepping down. (NYT) Russell Capone, a former anticorruption chief in the Manhattan federal prosecutor’s office, is joining the law firm Cooley as a partner. (Cooley) “As Virus Cases Speed Up, Seoul Tells Gym Users to Slow Down” (NYT)

 

[Bozzie]

RATING SENSITIVITIES

FACTORS THAT COULD, INDIVIDUALLY OR COLLECTIVELY, LEAD TO NEGATIVE RATING ACTION/DOWNGRADE:

--Public Finances: Deterioration in public debt dynamics leading to a sustained rise in the general government debt/GDP ratio, for example as a result of lack of expected fiscal consolidation, higher than expected unfunded spending commitments or changes in macroeconomic conditions, or absence of a credible commitment to address medium-term public spending and debt challenges;
--Structural: A deterioration in governance quality that undermines the integrity of the U.S. political system, with potential negative implications for the effectiveness of the government and institutions in managing the economy and absorbing adverse shocks.
--Macroeconomic policy, performance and prospects: A decline in the coherence and credibility of U.S. policymaking that undermines the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar and the government's financing flexibility, for example as a result of higher than expected inflation.

FACTORS THAT COULD, INDIVIDUALLY OR COLLECTIVELY, LEAD TO POSITIVE RATING ACTION/UPGRADE:

--Public Finances: Abating pressures on public finances leading to greater confidence in a stabilization of the public debt ratio over the medium term.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns United States a score equivalent to a rating of 'AA+' on the Long-Term Foreign Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.

Macroeconomic performance and policies: A +1 notch adjustment continues to reflect the swift and effective monetary and fiscal policy response by the U.S. authorities to counteract the economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic, which Fitch views as having mitigated the impact of a rise in growth volatility on Fitch's model-based indicative rating, and which Fitch expects would adapt to consider both the economic outlook and the long-term outlook for the public finances.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch assumes that the global economy performs in line with the forecasts contained in the June 2021 Global Economic Outlook.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

United States has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As United States has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
United States has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As United States has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
United States has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As United States has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
United States has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for United States, as for all sovereigns.
Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.

ENTITY/DEBT	RATING		PRIOR
United States of America	LT IDR	AAA	Affirmed		AAA
	ST IDR	F1+	Affirmed		F1+
	LC LT IDR	AAA	Affirmed		AAA
	LC ST IDR	F1+	Affirmed		F1+
	Country Ceiling	AAA	Affirmed		AAA
senior unsecured	LT	AAA	Affirmed		AAA
senior unsecured	ST	F1+	Affirmed		F1+

VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS


Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
APPLICABLE CRITERIA

• Country Ceilings Criteria (pub. 01 Jul 2020)
• Sovereign Rating Criteria (pub. 26 Apr 2021) (including rating assumption sensitivity)

APPLICABLE MODELS

Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).

• Country Ceiling Model, v1.7.2 (1)
• Debt Dynamics Model, v1.2.1 (1)
• Macro-Prudential Indicator Model, v1.5.0 (1)
• Sovereign Rating Model, v3.12.2 (1)

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

• Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
• Solicitation Status
• Endorsement Policy

ENDORSEMENT STATUS

United States of America

EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed

UNSOLICITED ISSUERS

United States of America (Unsolicited) With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation Yes With Access to Internal Documents No With Access to Management Yes

DISCLAIMER

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: https://www.fitchratings.com/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, THE FOLLOWING
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COPYRIGHT

Copyright © 2021 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other report
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SOLICITATION STATUS

The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained by Fitch at the request of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below.

ENTITY/SECURITY	ISIN/CUSIP	RATING TYPE	SOLICITATION STATUS
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FP85	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FJ26	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FF04	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FB99	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.375% Treasury Notes 15 Jan 2025	US912810FR42	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QD37	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QH41	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QK79	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QN19	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PS15	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QU51	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RB61	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828VM96	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828WU04	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RJ97	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Oct-2023	US912828T917	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 3% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Feb-2047	US912810RV26	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34.85 bln 2% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Oct-2022	US9128283C28	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 2.5% bond/note 15-Jan-2022	US9128285V80	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 2.25% bond/note 15-Apr-2022	US9128286M72	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 33.27 bln 1.875% bond/note 31-Jul-2026	US912828Y958	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 45.29 bln 1.5% bond/note 31-Oct-2024	US912828YM69	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35.35 bln 1.625% bond/note 31-Oct-2026	US912828YQ73	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 43.9 bln 2.375% bond/note 15-Nov-2049	US912810SK51	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 63.78 bln 1.75% bond/note 15-Nov-2029	US912828YS30	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 43.34 bln 1.75% bond/note 30-Jun-2024	US9128286Z85	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 33.83 bln 1.875% bond/note 30-Jun-2026	US9128287B09	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.13 bln 1.375% bond/note 31-Jan-2022	US912828Z609	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 54.9 bln 1.375% bond/note 15-Feb-2023	US912828Z864	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 63.01 bln 1.5% bond/note 15-Feb-2030	US912828Z948	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 50.41 bln 3% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2048	US912810SD19	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41.99 bln 0.5% bond/note 31-May-2027	US912828ZS21	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 46.61 bln 0.5% bond/note 30-Jun-2027	US912828ZV59	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38.57 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2021	US9128284W72	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 53.45 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-Jul-2022	US91282CAC55	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 49 bln 0.375% bond/note 31-Jul-2027	US91282CAD39	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 65.41 bln 1.375% bond/note 15-Aug-2050	US912810SP49	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 63.77 bln 0.625% bond/note 30-Nov-2027	US91282CAY75	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 63.77 bln 0.125% bond/note 30-Nov-2022	US91282CAX92	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 61.16 bln 1.875% bond/note 15-Feb-2041	US912810SW99	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 72.99 bln 0.125% bond/note 28-Feb-2023	US91282CBN02	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 74.21 bln 0.5% bond/note 28-Feb-2026	US91282CBQ33	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 61.59 bln 0.25% bond/note 15-Mar-2024	US91282CBR16	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 73.13 bln 1.25% bond/note 31-Mar-2028	US91282CBS98	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 71.95 bln 0.75% bond/note 31-Mar-2026	US91282CBT71	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 66.9 bln 0.375% bond/note 15-Apr-2024	US91282CBV28	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 90 bln 1.88% bond/note 15-Feb-2051	US912810SU34	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 66.8 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-Dec-2022	US91282CBD20	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 70.4 bln 0.75% bond/note 31-Jan-2028	US91282CBJ99	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 140 bln 1.12% bond/note 15-Feb-2031	US91282CBL46	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FD55	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EV62	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EQ77	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EL80	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FT08	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PZ57	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QT88	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QV35	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QZ49	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828VB32	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828SA95	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828WJ58	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828F965	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828H458	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured bond/note	US912810RL44	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828K742	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828M565	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured bond/note	US912828M805	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2021	US912828T347	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 2.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-May-2027	US912828X885	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-May-2022	US912828XR65	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 13 bln 0.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Jul-2027	US9128282L36	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jul-2022	US9128282P40	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35 bln 2.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 28-Feb-2023	US9128284A52	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Apr-2023	US9128284L18	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 16 bln 0.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Apr-2023	US9128284H06	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 17 bln 3.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-May-2048	US912810SC36	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2023	US9128285D82	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 31 bln 3% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2025	US9128285C00	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 40 bln 2.875% bond/note 30-Nov-2023	US9128285P13	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41 bln 2.625% bond/note 31-Dec-2023	US9128285U08	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32 bln 2.625% bond/note 31-Dec-2025	US9128285T35	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41 bln 2.5% bond/note 31-Jan-2024	US9128285Z94	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32.41 bln 2.375% bond/note 30-Apr-2026	US9128286S43	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 1.38% bond/note 15-Oct-2022	US912828YK04	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 43.18 bln 1.5% bond/note 30-Nov-2021	US912828YT13	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.26 bln 1.5% bond/note 30-Nov-2024	US912828YV68	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 49.72 bln 0.25% bond/note 31-May-2025	US912828ZT04	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59.73 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-Oct-2022	US91282CAR25	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 83.43 bln 1.625% bond/note 15-Nov-2050	US912810SS87	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 27 bln 2.25% bond/note 15-May-2041	US912810SY55	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41 bln 1.62% bond/note 15-May-2031	US91282CCB54	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 55.9 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 23-Sep-2021	US912796F535	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59.82 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 28-Oct-2021	US912796G780	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 56 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 23-Dec-2021	US912796J750	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FQ68	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EZ76	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EX29	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810ET17	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EP94	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QA97	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QE10	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QQ40	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QY73	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RC45	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828SV33	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828B667	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RG58	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828D721	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828F213	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828XB14	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RM27	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828XQ82	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828P386	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Jun-2023	US912828S356	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 1.5% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2026	US9128282A70	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2046	US912810RT79	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Nov-2046	US912810RU43	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Nov-2021	US912828U659	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 2% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Dec-2021	US912828U816	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Feb-2027	US912828V988	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Mar-2024	US912828W713	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2047	US912810RY64	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Aug-2022	US9128282S88	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.5% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jan-2025	US9128283V09	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 26 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2028	US9128284V99	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Sep-2021	US9128285A44	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 27 bln 3.125% bond/note 15-Nov-2028	US9128285M81	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 2.375% bond/note 15-Mar-2022	US9128286H87	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 62.8 bln 1.5% bond/note 15-Aug-2022	US912828YA22	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.18 bln 1.5% bond/note 31-Oct-2021	US912828YP90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34.54 bln 1.625% bond/note 30-Nov-2026	US912828YU85	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 43.76 bln 1.625% bond/note 31-Dec-2021	US912828YZ72	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 46.05 bln 1.125% bond/note 28-Feb-2022	US912828ZA13	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 47.2 bln 1.125% bond/note 28-Feb-2025	US912828ZC78	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.63 bln 0.25% bond/note 15-Jun-2023	US912828ZU76	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 53.43 bln 0.25% bond/note 30-Jun-2025	US912828ZW33	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 52.29 bln 0.125% bond/note 30-Jun-2022	US912828ZX16	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 52.18 bln 1.125% bond/note 15-Aug-2040	US912810SQ22	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 75.43 bln 1.125% bond/note 29-Feb-2028	US91282CBP59	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 68.1 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-Jan-2023	US91282CBG50	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 79 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Feb-2024	US91282CBM29	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58 bln 0.25% bond/note 15-May-2024	US91282CCC38	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60 bln 0.125% bond/note 30-Jun-2023	US91282CCK53	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 37.8 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 24-Feb-2022	US912796D308	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 56.7 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 26-Aug-2021	US912796D555	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 57.8 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 02-Sep-2021	US912796D639	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.49 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2021	US912796F618	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59.92 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 14-Oct-2021	US912796G525	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59.3 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 16-Dec-2021	US912796J677	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EM63	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PX00	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PV44	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QS06	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828VS66	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RD28	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RE01	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828WY26	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828G534	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828L245	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828M490	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured bond/note	US912828D564	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RQ31	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 2.5% treasury notes 15-May-2046	US912810RS96	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.625% treasury notes 31-May-2023	US912828R697	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jul-2021	US912828S760	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Aug-2021	US9128282F67	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Apr-2022	US912828X471	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Aug-2027	US9128282R06	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Aug-2024	US9128282U35	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2022	US9128282W90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 36 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-May-2023	US9128284S60	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 39 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Oct-2023	US9128285K26	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32 bln 2.625% bond/note 31-Jan-2026	US9128286A35	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 13 bln 0.875% bond/note 15-Jan-2029	US9128285W63	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 47.15 bln 2.5% bond/note 15-Feb-2022	US9128286C90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23.58 bln 3% bond/note 15-Feb-2049	US912810SF66	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 42.63 bln 1.75% bond/note 31-Jul-2024	US912828Y875	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 1.5% bond/note 15-Sep-2022	US912828YF19	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.15 bln 1.5% bond/note 30-Sep-2021	US912828YJ31	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 1.62% bond/note 15-Dec-2022	US912828YW42	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38.04 bln 0.5% bond/note 30-Apr-2027	US912828ZN34	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 64.21 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-May-2023	US912828ZP81	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 48.62 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-May-2022	US912828ZR48	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 50.04 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Jul-2023	US912828ZY98	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 97.04 bln 0.625% bond/note 15-Aug-2030	US91282CAE12	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.84 bln 0.25% bond/note 31-Oct-2025	US91282CAT80	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 68.81 bln 0.25% bond/note 15-Nov-2023	US91282CAW10	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58.4 bln 1.375% bond/note 15-Nov-2040	US912810ST60	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 64.91 bln 0.375% bond/note 30-Nov-2025	US91282CAZ41	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 73.84 bln 1.25% bond/note 30-Apr-2028	US91282CBZ32	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 63.8 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Jan-2024	US91282CBE03	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 61 bln 0.75% bond/note 31-May-2026	US91282CCF68	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 57.7 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 19-Aug-2021	US912796D480	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 26-Nov-2021	US912796H770	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58.6 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 09-Dec-2021	US912796J594	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America	-	Country Ceiling	Unsolicited
United States of America	-	Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America	-	Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FE39	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EN47	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QB70	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QC53	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QL52	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FS25	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828TJ95	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828H862	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RK60	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828XD79	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2023	US912828T263	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 2% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Nov-2026	US912828U246	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jan-2022	US912828V723	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jan-2024	US912828V806	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 29-Feb-2024	US912828W481	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 28-Feb-2022	US912828W556	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Mar-2022	US912828W895	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Sep-2024	US9128282Y56	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Dec-2024	US9128283P31	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 24 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Feb-2028	US9128283W81	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35 bln 2.5% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Mar-2023	US9128284D91	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 13 bln 0.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Jul-2028	US912828Y388	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 37 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Aug-2023	US9128284X55	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 36 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Oct-2021	US9128285F31	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 31 bln 3% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Oct-2025	US9128285J52	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 37 bln 2.875% bond/note 15-Nov-2021	US9128285L09	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32 bln 2.5% bond/note 28-Feb-2026	US9128286F22	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32 bln 2.25% bond/note 31-Mar-2026	US9128286L99	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.2 bln 2.375% bond/note 15-May-2029	US9128286T26	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41.59 bln 1.75% bond/note 31-Jul-2021	US9128287F13	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35.32 bln 1.625% bond/note 30-Sep-2026	US912828YG91	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35.01 bln 1.75% bond/note 31-Dec-2026	US912828YX25	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 39.22 bln 1.5% bond/note 15-Jan-2023	US912828Z294	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 40.13 bln 0.25% bond/note 15-Apr-2023	US912828ZH65	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 22 bln 1.25% bond/note 15-May-2050	US912810SN90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32 bln 0.625% bond/note 15-May-2030	US912828ZQ64	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41.42 bln 1.125% bond/note 15-May-2040	US912810SR05	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 49 bln 0.25% bond/note 31-Jul-2025	US91282CAB72	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 51.08 bln 0.5% bond/note 31-Aug-2027	US91282CAH43	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.26 bln 0.25% bond/note 30-Sep-2025	US91282CAM38	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 129.86 bln 0.875% bond/note 15-Nov-2030	US91282CAV37	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 33.13 bln 2.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Jul-2021	US912828Y206	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 68 bln 0.625% bond/note 31-Dec-2027	US91282CBB63	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 62 bln 1.25% bond/note 31-May-2028	US91282CCE93	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 62 bln 1.25% bond/note 30-Jun-2028	US91282CCH25	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 39.2 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 07-Oct-2021	US9127964V80	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 57.87 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 5-Aug-2021	US912796C649	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38.64 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 27-Jan-2022	US912796C318	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38.01 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 21-Apr-2022	US912796G459	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America	-	Long Term Issuer Default Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FM54	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FH69	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PT97	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QP66	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828QV50	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 68 bln 2% Gov Bonds 15 Nov 2021	US912828RR30	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828TY62	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828UN88	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QW18	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RH32	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828J272	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828J769	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RN00	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828L575	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828N308	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828P469	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured bond/note	US912828P790	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Aug-2023	US9128282D10	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Dec-2023	US912828V236	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Apr-2024	US912828X703	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 29 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 28-Feb-2025	US9128283Z13	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 30 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jul-2025	US912828Y792	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 2.625% bond/note 15-Dec-2021	US9128285R78	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 33.5 bln 2.625% bond/note 15-Feb-2029	US9128286B18	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41 bln 2.375% bond/note 29-Feb-2024	US9128286G05	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41.52 bln 2.25% bond/note 30-Apr-2024	US9128286R69	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 50.95 bln 2.125% bond/note 15-May-2022	US9128286U98	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.62 bln 1.625% bond/note 15-Aug-2029	US912828YB05	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 45.26 bln 1.5% bond/note 30-Sep-2024	US912828YH74	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 1.75% bond/note 15-Jun-2022	US9128286Y11	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 44.86 bln 1.75% bond/note 31-Dec-2024	US912828YY08	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 45.23 bln 1.375% bond/note 31-Jan-2025	US912828Z526	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 36.84 bln 1.125% bond/note 28-Feb-2027	US912828ZB95	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 45.38 bln 0.375% bond/note 31-Mar-2022	US912828ZG82	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 45.65 bln 0.125% bond/note 30-Apr-2022	US912828ZM50	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 53.45 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Oct-2023	US91282CAP68	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58.38 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Dec-2023	US91282CBA80	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 27 bln 2.38% bond/note 15-May-2051	US912810SX72	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 68 bln 0.375% bond/note 31-Dec-2025	US91282CBC47	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-May-2023	US91282CCD11	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58 bln 0.25% bond/note 15-Jun-2024	US91282CCG42	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 39.4 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 04-Nov-2021	US9127964W63	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58.2 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 22-Jul-2021	US912796C490	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.4 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 21-Oct-2021	US912796G608	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 37.3 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 16-Jun-2022	US912796J420	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 150 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 20-Jul-2021	US912796J263	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.9 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 06-Jan-2022	US912796K659	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America	-	Short Term Issuer Default Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FG86	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810FA17	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EW46	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810ES34	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EK08	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PU60	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828RC60	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828SF82	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828TE09	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RA88	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828WE61	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828B253	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828WZ90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828XG01	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828XL95	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828R283	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 1.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jul-2023	US912828S927	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Oct-2021	US912828T677	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 3% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-May-2047	US912810RX81	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-May-2024	US912828XT22	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 15 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Nov-2047	US912810RZ30	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 2.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jan-2023	US9128283U26	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 16 bln 3% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Feb-2048	US912810SA79	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 29 bln 2.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Mar-2025	US9128284F40	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 29 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Apr-2025	US9128284M90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28.7 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Oct-2024	US9128283D01	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 30 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-May-2025	US9128284R87	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 36 bln 2.625% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Jun-2023	US9128284U17	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 30 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Jun-2025	US912828XZ81	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 31 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Aug-2025	US9128284Z04	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 19 bln 3.375% bond/note 15-Nov-2048	US912810SE91	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 32 bln 2.875% bond/note 30-Nov-2025	US9128285N64	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 8 bln 1% bond/note 15-Feb-2049	US912810SG40	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 36.16 bln 1.375% bond/note 31-Aug-2026	US912828YD60	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 45.19 bln 1.5% bond/note 31-Aug-2021	US912828YC87	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 1.75% bond/note 15-Jul-2022	US9128287C81	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 36.3 bln 0.625% bond/note 31-Mar-2027	US912828ZE35	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 46.51 bln 0.5% bond/note 31-Mar-2025	US912828ZF00	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 46.73 bln 0.375% bond/note 30-Apr-2025	US912828ZL77	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 55.43 bln 0.25% bond/note 31-Aug-2025	US91282CAJ09	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 56.84 bln 0.375% bond/note 30-Sep-2027	US91282CAL54	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59.12 bln 0.125% bond/note 30-Sep-2022	US91282CAN11	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58.62 bln 0.5% bond/note 31-Oct-2027	US91282CAU53	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 70.77 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-Mar-2023	US91282CBU45	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 52.1 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Sep-2023	US91282CAK71	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 69.2 bln 0.375% bond/note 31-Jan-2026	US91282CBH34	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 61 bln 0.875% bond/note 30-Jun-2026	US91282CCJ80	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln Zero bond/note 12-Aug-2021	US9127964B27	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35.2 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 24-Mar-2022	US912796F386	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 58.7 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 16-Sep-2021	US912796F469	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 59.7 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 12-Nov-2021	US912796H515	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 60.8 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 18-Nov-2021	US912796H697	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810EY02	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810PW27	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QF84	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810QX90	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828UH11	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 9 bln 1.375% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Feb-2044	US912810RF75	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828G385	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828G872	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured bond/note	US912828J439	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RP57	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912810RR14	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America senior unsecured treasury bills/notes/bonds	US912828Q293	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 1.625% treasury notes 15-May-2026	US912828R366	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Nov-2023	US912828U576	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Jun-2024	US912828XX34	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 34 bln 1.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Jun-2022	US912828XW50	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 2.8 bln 2.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-jul-2024	US9128282N91	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 23 bln 2.25% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Nov-2027	US9128283F58	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 28 bln 2.125% treasury bills/notes/bonds 30-Nov-2024	US9128283J70	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 13 bln 0.5% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Jan-2028	US9128283R96	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 25 bln 2.875% treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-May-2028	US9128284N73	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 37.95 bln 2.75% treasury bills/notes/bonds 31-Jul-2023	US912828Y610	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 41.47 bln 2.875% bond/note 15-May-2049	US912810SH23	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35.36 bln 2.125% bond/note 31-May-2026	US9128286X38	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 31.4 bln 2.25% bond/note 15-Aug-2049	US912810SJ88	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 46.32 bln 1.25% bond/note 31-Aug-2024	US912828YE44	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 35.3 bln 1.5% bond/note 31-Jan-2027	US912828Z781	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 16 bln 2% bond/note 15-Feb-2050	US912810SL35	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38 bln 0.5% bond/note 15-Mar-2023	US912828ZD51	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 76.55 bln 0.125% bond/note 15-Aug-2023	US91282CAF86	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 54.34 bln 0.125% bond/note 31-Aug-2022	US91282CAG69	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 72.65 bln 0.75% bond/note 30-Apr-2026	US91282CBW01	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 71.46 bln 0.125% bond/note 30-Apr-2023	US91282CBX83	Long Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38.6 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 15-Jul-2021	US9127963S60	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 37.6 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 09-Sep-2021	US9127964L09	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 39 bln Zero bond/note 02-Dec-2021	US9127965G05	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited
United States of America USD 38.3 bln Zero treasury bills/notes/bonds 19-May-2022	US912796H440	Short Term Rating	Unsolicited

ENDORSEMENT POLICY

Fitch’s international credit ratings produced outside the EU or the UK, as the case may be, are endorsed for use by regulated entities within the EU or the UK, respectively, for regulatory purposes, pursuant to the terms of the EU CRA Regulation or the UK Credit Rating Agencies (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019, as the case may be. Fitch’s approach to endorsement in the EU and the UK can be found on Fitch’s Regulatory Affairs page on Fitch’s website. The endorsement status of international credit ratings is provided within the entity summary page for each rated entity and in the transaction detail pages for structured finance transactions on the Fitch website. These disclosures are updated on a daily basis.







Sovereigns
North America
United States




RATING ACTION COMMENTARY
[h=1]Fitch Affirms United States at 'AAA'; Outlook Negative[/h]

 

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments July 14, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TEN TECH TRENDS DEFINING YOUR FUTURE, or THE BEST TECH PIECE I HAVE EVER WRITTEN) (TSLA), (GOOG), (AMZN), (AAPL), (CRSP)

​ Ten Tech Trends Defining Your Future, or The Best Tech Piece I have Ever WrittenNot a day goes by without a reader asking me what is the next stock ten, hundred, or thousand bagger. After all, I nailed the 295X move in Tesla (TSLA) starting in 2010. Can’t I do better? Well actually, I can, which is the purpose of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. There are many potentially Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL)-sized opportunities out there today. It’s just a matter of time before they become public and investable. One thing I will tell you today is that they will have some or all of the following gale-force tailwinds below. These will turbocharge the value of everything you own now, as well as anything new you might pick up going forward. The future is happening fast! 1) People are Getting Richer, as the middle-income population continues to rise worldwide. That means more customers for everything and astronomically greater earnings for the companies inventing and selling them. Everyday goods and services (finance, insurance, education, and entertainment) are being digitized and becoming fully demonetized, available to the rising billion on mobile devices. Thank the convergence of high-bandwidth and low-cost communication, ubiquitous AI on the cloud, growing access to AI-aided education, and AI-driven healthcare. 2) And they are Communicating with Each Other More. The deployment of both licensed and unlicensed 5G, plus the launch of a multitude of global satellite networks (Starlink, OneWeb, Viasat, etc.), allow for ubiquitous, low-cost communications for everyone, everywhere, all the time––not to mention the connection of trillions of devices. And today’s skyrocketing connectivity is bringing online an additional 3 billion individuals, driving tens of trillions of dollars into the global economy and into the pockets of shareholders. Thank the convergence of low-cost space launches (Space-X), hardware advancements, 5G networks, artificial intelligence, a new generation of materials science, and exponentially surging computing power. 3) Your Lifespan Will Increase by at Least Ten Years. A dozen game-changing biotech and pharmaceutical solutions (currently in Phase 1, 2, or 3 clinical trials) will reach consumers this decade as covered by the Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter (click here for the link). Technologies include stem cell supply restoration, senolytic or age-related medicines, a new generation of Endo-Vaccines, GDF-11, and supplementation of NMD/NAD+, among several others. And as machine learning continues to mature, AI is set to unleash countless new drug candidates, ready for clinical trials. Thank the convergence of genome sequencing, CRISPR technologies (CRSP), AI, quantum computing, and cellular medicine. 4) More Capital for Everything Will Become Abundant. Over the past few years, humanity hit all-time highs in the global flow of seed capital, venture capital, and sovereign wealth fund investments. It is expected to continue its overall upward trajectory. Capital abundance leads to the funding and testing of "crazy" entrepreneurial ideas, which in turn accelerate innovation. Already, $300B in crowdfunding is anticipated by 2025, democratizing capital access for entrepreneurs worldwide. And even during a pandemic (2020), the world deployed more venture capital than ever before, handily beating out the last high-water mark in 2019. Thank global connectivity, dematerialization, demonetization, and democratization. 5) Distribution is Becoming Vastly Easier. The combination of Augmented Reality (yielding Web 3.0, or the Spatial Web) and 5G networks (offering lighting fast 100Mb/s - 10Gb/s connection speeds) will transform how we live our everyday lives, impacting every industry from retail and advertising, to education and entertainment. Consumers will play, learn and shop throughout the day in a new intelligent, virtually overlaid world. This is where technologies like SpatialWeb.net, Vatoms (new digital connections between products and customers), and Apple’s (AAPL) next generation AR & VR headsets will shine. Thank hardware advancements, 5G networks, artificial intelligence, materials science, and surging computing power. (6) Everything is Getting Smarter: The price of specialized machine learning chips is dropping rapidly with a rise in global demand. Imagine a specialized $5 chip that enables AI for a toy, a shoe, a kitchen cabinet? Combined with the explosion of low-cost microscopic sensors and the deployment of high-bandwidth networks, we’re heading into a decade wherein every device becomes intelligent. Your child’s toy remembers her face and name. Your kid's drone safely and diligently follows and videos all the children at the birthday party. Appliances respond to voice commands and anticipate your needs. Thank AI, 5G networks, and more advanced sensors. (7) Artificial Intelligence is Getting Smarter than We are. Artificial intelligence will reach human-level performance this decade (by 2030). Through the 2020s, AI algorithms and machine learning tools will be increasingly made open source, available on the cloud, allowing any individual with an internet connection to supplement their cognitive ability, augment their problem-solving capacity, and build new ventures at a fraction of the current cost. Thank global high-bandwidth connectivity, neural networks, and cloud computing. Every industry, spanning industrial design, healthcare, education, and entertainment, will be impacted. (8) AI is Becoming a Service: The rise of “AI as a Service” (AIaaS) platforms will enable humans to partner with AI in every aspect of their work, at every level, in every industry. AI will become entrenched in everyday business operations, serving as cognitive collaborators to employees—supporting creative tasks, generating new ideas, and tackling previously unattainable innovations. In some fields, partnership with AI will even become a requirement. For example: in the future, making certain diagnoses without the consultation of AI may be deemed malpractice. And try trading stocks today without AI behind you. Thank increasingly intelligent AI, global high-bandwidth connectivity, neural networks, and cloud computing. (9) Software Will Become an Integrated Part of Our Lives. As services like Alexa, Google Home, and Apple Homepod expand in functionality, such services will eventually travel beyond the home and become your cognitive prosthetic 24/7. Imagine a secure software shell that you give permission to listen to all your conversations, read your email, monitor your blood chemistry, etc. With access to such data, these AI-enabled software shells will learn your preferences, anticipate your needs and behavior, shop for you, monitor your health, and help you problem-solve in support of your mid- and long-term goals. Thank increasingly intelligent AI, neural networks, and cloud computing. (10) Energy Will Become Effectively Free when compared to today’s all-in costs. Continued advancements in solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, small nuclear, and localized grids will drive humanity towards cheap, abundant, and ubiquitous renewable energy. The price per kilowatt-hour will drop below 1 cent for renewables, just as storage drops below a mere 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, resulting in the elimination of fossil fuels globally. And as the world’s poorest countries are also the world’s sunniest, the democratization of both new and traditional storage technologies will grant energy abundance to those already bathed in sunlight. We are also on the cusp of many breakthroughs in fusion power at nearby Lawrence Livermore Labs as capital, new materials, and entrepreneurs pour in this arena. Thank materials science, hardware advancements, AI/algorithms, and improved battery technologies. I just thought you’d like to know. ​ ​

Quote of the Day“The brave may not live forever, but the cautious do not live at all,” said my friend, Sir Richard Branson on the successful inaugural flight of his spaceship.

​

 

[Bozzie]

LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:

Top News Powell on the Hill Shutterstock​ Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat today as he heads before Congress for his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. Inflation, which was once the elephant in the room, is set to become the most heated topic at the grilling following yesterday's data on rising costs across the American economy. The Consumer Price Index grew at its fastest clip since August 2008, climbing 5.4% year-over-year versus a forecast of 4.9%. Bigger picture: While we've seen price increases before, most of them were taking place in areas heavily hit by the pandemic. Those included building materials and travel-related costs, which were hit by supply chain problems and shutdowns, but the most recent report suggested that these increases are broadening out. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in at 4.5%, marking the largest increase since September 1991. Until recently, the Fed has stuck to the script that inflation will be "transitory," though some rumblings over that outlook are being heard at the FOMC and broader investing community. Fed minutes last week showed some concern over rising prices, with a "substantial majority" of policymakers seeing inflation risks "tilted to the upside." While traders had a gut reaction to the latest CPI - stocks dipped on Tuesday - investors don't appear to be that worried about runaway inflation. Market expectations of serious price pressures have so far been contained (continuous record highs) and positioning does not appear to have been influenced by the data (yet). Questions for Powell: Lawmakers will likely drill the Fed Chair about the central bank's support for the economy and how much importance to place on the recent inflation figures. It's also likely to get political. Democrats have pushed for expensive stimulus programs, stating there is no serious inflationary risk, while Republicans have generally posited that inflation is getting out of control and could be harmful to the U.S. economy. Stocks Earnings season A big inflation jump saw stocks edge down from highs yesterday as the debate over how the long Fed can keep policy loose resurfaced. U.S. equity futures are shaking off some of the concerns this morning, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively, while the DJIA trails behind, down slightly at 0.1%. Higher-than-expected inflation data wasn't the only thing to weigh on stocks, which greeted the Q2 earnings season with little fanfare. Snapshot: Financial powerhouses JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both beat profit and revenue estimates on Tuesday, but their shares pulled back during the session. Some are attributing the decline to a peak in the expansion cycle, which has historically been preceded by a subpar performance in stocks, according to data compiled by S&P Dow Jones Indices. More bank earnings are due this morning, including results from Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC). "The peak percentage rate of growth is likely in the second quarter. But I am looking for peak optimism, which is based on how much the estimates are going up after companies report," added Nick Raich, CEO at The Earnings Scout. "It's not just the direction, it's the magnitude. If estimates go up at a decreasing rate, that's when we know we hit peak optimism." Elsewhere: Democrats on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee reached an agreement on a $3.5T human infrastructure investment, which could be included in a budget resolution to be debated later this summer. While the price tag falls short of a $6T package previously sought by progressives, it's in line with President Biden's $4T economic agenda. Lawmakers are also working on a $600B bipartisan package for physical infrastructure, which Biden has confirmed is not dependent on the other infrastructure initiative. Sponsored By VantagePoint Watch A.I. Forecast Your Stocks In Less Than a Minute Artificial intelligence is the #1 tool used by traders of all experience levels because the revolutionary machine learning technology predicts major trend reversals…up to 3 days in advance. Grab a seat at our LIVE online masterclass and see your favorite stock forecasted today. Plus, ask our presenter anything through our interactive LIVE chat during the class. Your registration is completely complimentary. It’s starting soon, so save your spot now! Knowledge is power. And artificial intelligence has the answers. Financials 'Buy now, pay later' Apple (AAPL) is developing a new service that would allow consumers to make Apple Pay purchases in installments, sources told Bloomberg. That would put the company in direct competition with dominant player Affirm (AFRM), which closed Tuesday's session down 10% on the news. Apple's upcoming service would use Goldman Sachs (GS) as the lender for its installment offerings after previously partnering with the Wall Street bank on the Apple Card. 'Apple Pay Later': Customers would have the choice to pay in four installments, with one payment every two weeks, or across several months with interest. When making a purchase, the consumer would also have the option to pay using either of the installment plans or as they would regularly use Apple Pay. The company already offers monthly installment payments through the Apple Card, but the new service would allow users to choose any credit card to make their purchases over time. The service would bolster Apple's revenue since the tech giant receives a percentage of the transactions made with Apple Pay. It could also convince more Apple users to use their iPhone to pay for items instead of standard credit cards. Analyst commentary: Truist's Andrew Jeffrey sees the Affirm stock decline as an overreaction, "given the company's position as the leading enterprise BNPL provider, boasting exclusive integrations with platforms including Shopify (SHOP) and Peloton (PTON)." He also maintains that Affirm's merchant integrations and the ability to handle complex underwriting as "characteristics that materially differentiate it from more basic 'split pay' competitors" like ****** (PYPL), Klarna (KLAR) and Afterpay (OTCPK:AFTPY). (40 comments) Regulation Marijuana legalization At a press conference today, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will introduce a draft of legislation that would legalize marijuana on the federal level. The bill would be called the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act and is meant to spur discussion for a formal introduction of the bill and comprehensive reform. Reports suggest it would direct some tax revenue from marijuana sales to minority communities, give the FDA oversight of cannabis regulation and retain some federal drug testing provisions. Quote: "Hopefully, the next time this unofficial holiday, 4/20, rolls around, our country will have made progress in addressing the massive overcriminalization of marijuana in a meaningful and comprehensive way," Schumer said back in April. The nation's war on drugs has "too often been a war on people, particularly people of color." Marijuana is still classified as a Schedule I drug under federal law, meaning it's on par with heroin, LSD, shrooms and ecstasy. It's also against federal law to grow, sell, or use pot for any use, including medical purposes. Despite being prohibited by federal law (different administrations have taken various approaches to enforcement), 36 states and D.C. currently have laws legalizing marijuana for either medical or recreational use. Supercycle? Marijuana sales are expected to top $24B in 2021, marking a 40% Y/Y increase, forecasts Roy Bingham, co-founder and chairman of BDSA, a cannabis market research firm. (272 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -0.4%. Hong Kong -0.5%. China -1.1%. India +0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude -0.6% at $74.79. Gold +0.4% at $1816.80. Bitcoin -1.9% at $32486. Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.37% Today's Economic Calendar 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:30 Producer Price Index 10:00 Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories 12:00 PM Powell Testifies on Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report 1:30 PM Fed's Kashkari Speech 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Companies reporting earnings today » Tuesday's Key Earnings Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) -1.2% despite investment banking strength. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) -1.5% on weaker fixed income, trimmed NII guidance. PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) +2.3% taking away market share from Coca-Cola. ​ What else is happening... Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) no longer in talks to acquire SAS Institute - WSJ. Live events? Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) extends deals with Universal, Shonda Rhimes. U.S. government's fiscal year-to-date deficit tops $2.2T. American Air (NASDAQ:AAL) guides Q2 revenue ahead of prior expectations. Lockheed (NYSE:LMT) F-35 flaws attract more fire from the Pentagon. Vaccine passport... Norwegian (NCLH) sues Florida surgeon general. Space exploration SPAC Stable Road (NASDAQ:SRAC) targeted by SEC in crackdown. eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) sells part of Adevinta stake to Permira for $2.3B. Cathie Wood on oil prices: 'My guess is they are not going to much higher.'

​

 

[CoachCB]

Good info on BABA. I may add a couple of shares.....

 

[Bozzie]

July 15, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

The Scorpios beach club in Greece. Soho House’s parent company plans to open a second in Mexico next year.Membership Collective Group

[h=2]Can exclusivity scale?[/h]

The parent company of Soho House, the chain of upscale members’ clubs for celebrities and well-heeled young professionals, is to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange today. But after pricing its I.P.O. at the low end of expectations, the question it faces is whether it can deliver on ambitious growth targets while keeping its cool, DealBook’s Michael J. de la Merced writes for The Times.

Membership Collective Group, the brand’s parent, proved it could survive the pandemic. It now has 119,000 members across 30 clubs around the world, with 59,000 people on the waitlist. The company retained 92 percent of members last year even with most of its clubs shut, and now many of its locations are back to 2019 capacity levels, Andrew Carnie, MCG’s president, told DealBook. “We’re pretty bulletproof,” he boasted.

(Nick Jones, the company’s founder and C.E.O., conceded that one thing had changed because of the pandemic. “I suppose we’re going to bed a bit earlier,” he said. “I think, in Covid, we’re a bit out of practice staying up late.”)

The company is betting that its business model has become even more attractive to public market investors. It has introduced several types of membership, including co-working, a 100-pounds-a-year ($138) membership with more limited access and, later this year, a digital app for customers in regions without clubs. Jones likened MCG to Peloton, another luxury product that he said “helped with the narrative of recurring income.”

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[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

A big test will be whether MCG can branch out from high-end hospitality. It recently bought the Line chain of boutique hotels to offer slightly more downscale accommodation around the world.

The listing will serve several goals:

MCG plans to pay down hefty financial obligations — the company had $2.1 billion in debt as of April — and renegotiate its high interest rates. Just as importantly, the company wants to be able to tap equity markets to finance an expansion effort that includes opening more than five clubs a year. (It has openings in Paris, Tel Aviv and Rome this year, with seven more across its Soho House, Ned and Scorpios brands next year.) Plus, Jones added, it was time to open a new chapter in its history: “We’re 26 years old. And so we’re growing up. We’re heading toward our 30s.”

Still, the company priced its I.P.O. at $14 per share yesterday, the bottom of its expected range, valuing it at $2.8 billion. We’ll see later today whether investors want to sign up to Soho House’s vision.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Jay Powell acknowledges the jump in inflation. The Fed chair told House lawmakers that inflation has risen “notably,” and was likely to stay high for at least six months. But he said that would later moderate, suggesting that the central bank wouldn’t shift approach.

Continue reading the main story

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China’s growth levels off. The country’s economy grew nearly 8 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, falling short of estimates. There’s increasing evidence that China’s post-pandemic resurgence might be unsustainable — which would have repercussions for the rest of the world.

Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. strike a deal over oil production. The tentative compromise would end a standoff that has held up efforts by OPEC to pump more petroleum into the markets. But The Wall Street Journal notes that it may prompt other OPEC members to demand further increases; oil prices dropped 2 percent on the news.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Facebook joins the fight against Lina Khan. The tech giant demanded that the F.T.C. chair recuse herself from the agency’s lawsuit against the company, echoing a similar move by Amazon. It’s the latest effort to turn Khan’s outspoken opposition to Big Tech’s power against her, though these motions usually don’t succeed.

Netflix is getting into gaming. The streaming giant has hired a former Facebook executive, Mike Verdu, to oversee the rollout of video games on its platform by next year, Bloomberg reports. The effort will pit Netflix against deep-pocketed rivals intent on dominating the nascent market for game streaming.

[h=2]Lending is a long way from a post-pandemic recovery[/h]

The nation’s biggest banks reported earnings for the second quarter this week. Although profits were up, the reports mostly got a thumbs down from investors.

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo all reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Bank of America missed expectations yesterday, but its bottom line still more than doubled from a year ago. Nonetheless, its shares fell, as have Citi’s and JPMorgan’s since they released their latest results.

A better economy means banks set aside less to cover future losses. They can also take back money they put away to cover loans that never went bad. Because of the government’s aggressive stimulus efforts, the economic stresses of the pandemic forced relatively few borrowers into default. That’s one factor driving bank profits, even as their core business of lending remains lackluster.

Loans rose for the first time since the start of the pandemic, but only by 1 percent. Back in early 2020, the bank’s collective lending recorded a 4 percent quarterly pace of growth. Their loan balance remains $245 billion lower than just before the pandemic. If things don’t speed up, it will take another year and a half to get back to where it was.

Loans are the lifeblood of an economy, and rising lending is typically a sign of optimism in both borrowers and lenders. Coming into this year, some economists thought the combination of lockdowns lifting and stimulus flowing would cause the economy to take off like a rocket. But as the loan data shows, the recovery has so far been more like a hot-air balloon — one that has recently looked like it could use some more heat.

[h=2]“I believe that cryptocurrency is an inherently right-wing, hyper-capitalistic technology built primarily to amplify the wealth of its proponents through a combination of tax avoidance, diminished regulatory oversight and artificially enforced scarcity.”[/h]

— Jackson Palmer, the inventor of Dogecoin, the cryptocurrency that started as a joke in 2013 but has been widely adopted by traders in the past year, on why he’s not tempted to get back into the crypto industry.

[h=2]High-paying jobs are everywhere[/h]

For the first time on Ladders, a job search site for roles that pay at least $100,000 a year, the most listings aren’t in New York or San Francisco. There are now more remote-working jobs offered than roles in any single city in North America, the company said.

Around 15 percent of high-paying jobs are available to remote workers, up from 5 percent a year ago. Many companies are bringing workers back to the office, with hybrid setups much more common than before the pandemic. But even if employees only come in a few days a week, their work is still based where their company has operations.

The extent of remote hiring suggests that things won’t return to how they were, to the chagrin of commercial landlords in urban centers. Employees who went remote during lockdowns can be summoned back, but new hires who join expecting to work virtually are different. At the same time, with companies starting to adjust pay for remote employees in line with local norms, jobs that pay six figures in New York may soon become less lucrative if taken by a worker in New Mexico.

Want to share The New York Times with your friends and family? Invite them to enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

Blackstone will buy a 10 percent stake in AIG’s life insurance and retirement business for $2.2 billion and manage at least 25 percent of the division’s investment portfolio. (Reuters) The European fintech company Revolut is now valued at $33 billion after raising $800 million from investors like SoftBank and Tiger Global. (CNBC) A short seller has accused the oat milk brand Oatly of overstating its revenue and sales margins; the company denied the allegations. (CNBC) The indie film studio A24 reportedly considered selling itself for as much as $3 billion as media giants race to buy up content. (Variety)

Policy

Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, has proposed decriminalizing marijuana at the federal level. (NYT) Ireland reportedly plans to raise its corporate tax rate to avoid becoming a “pariah.” (Irish Examiner) India’s central bank accused Mastercard of breaking data storage rules and ordered it to stop taking new debit and credit card customers. (Reuters) The European Central Bank is starting work on a digital euro, a kind of move that the Fed chair Jay Powell said could undercut the need for cryptocurrencies. (CNBC, Reuters)

Tech

Twitter’s disappearing tweets feature is, well, disappearing. (NYT) Facebook is unveiling a $1 billion program to recruit content creators and influencers. (NYT) How a former plastic surgeon became one of the most influential players in the crypto industry. (FT) Not only is there a shortage of computer chips, there’s an increasing supply of fake ones. (WSJ)

Best of the rest

Britney Spears can hire her own lawyer to push for an end to her conservatorship, a federal judge ruled. (NYT) Jeff Bezos will give $200 million to the National Air and Space Museum, the biggest donation to the Smithsonian. (NYT) Coca-Cola is changing the taste of Coke Zero. It swears this won’t be NewNew Coke. (NYT) Need data to pitch your boss on remote working? Goldman Sachs can help. (Insider)

 

[Bozzie]

LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:

Top News End of the combustion engine? Shutterstock​ We reported on the discussions several weeks back, but the European Commission has now proposed a date to call time on the internal combustion engine. Sales of new cars and vans that produce CO2, including plug-in hybrids, would be banned as of 2035, meaning "almost 100%" of vehicles on the road would be emissions-free by 2050. While the decision would force the EV revolution upon European automakers, some are already planning moves of their own. Last month, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) paved its way toward an EV future by pledging to halt sales of ICE vehicles in Europe by 2035, while Ford (NYSE:F) has said it will only sell EVs in Europe by 2030. Volvo (OTCPK:GELYF) is retiring the ICE engine and hybrids by the same year and Honda (NYSE:HMC) announced plans to phase out gas-powered cars by 2040. Meanwhile, Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) is no longer planning to invest in the development of new internal combustion engines, while General Motors (NYSE:GM) will stop building polluting vehicles by 2035. European Green Deal: "To ensure that drivers are able to charge or fuel their vehicles at a reliable network across Europe, the revised Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation will require Member States to expand charging capacity in line with zero-emission car sales, and to install charging and fueling points at regular intervals on major highways: every 60 kilometers for electric charging and every 150 kilometers for hydrogen refueling," the European Commission said in a statement. Just don't catch fire... General Motors on Wednesday told owners of 2017-2019 Bolt EVs not to park their vehicles inside or charge them unattended overnight after two of the EVs went up in flames. The cars had even been repaired as part of a recall of 69,000 vehicles that were flagged for fire risks, but that didn't seem to help. Other EV rollouts have also been interrupted by fires involving lithium-ion batteries, including Ford, BMW and Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), which have issued recalls in recent months for new battery-powered models. (54 comments) Stocks Delta cases surge Tech shares may be gaining some renewed momentum as coronavirus infections rapidly rise in the U.S. and around the globe. Nasdaq futures are pointing 0.4% higher amid fears of a return to stay-at-home culture, while the Dow and S&P 500 dip into the red. At the last count, the number of new U.S. COVID-19 cases per day has doubled over the past three weeks to 26,000, driven by the highly contagious Delta variant. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is quelling investor fears about a rollback of the central bank's easy policies despite the recent spike in inflation. Powell will be on Capitol Hill again today, where he'll appear before the Senate for his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. Notable exchange: "According to the NFIB, 47% of small businesses raised average selling prices in June. That's the highest since 1981," Representative Andy Barr (R-KY) asked the Fed Chair at yesterday's hearing. "We have a great network through the reserve banks, we hear that through a loudspeaker," Powell responded. "Regarding [inflation] expectations, we don't see problems on that front, but if expectations do move up in a way that is troubling, which we would say is materially above and for a persistent amount of time, we would be concerned and we would react to that." Elsewhere: Crude oil futures are sinking as traders weigh conflicting reports about a potential compromise between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on production levels. The latest bank earnings are also on tap this morning, with Morgan Stanley (MS), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) set to report. On the economic calendar, investors will get the latest labor snapshot in the U.S., with weekly jobless claims data reported at 8:30 a.m. ET. Sponsored By Fundrise Building Blocks to Real Estate Investing Remember when snagging real estate was an unattainable date, who, try as you might, your little engine never could? Now it can. With Fundrise, invest today in the future you imagined for tomorrow. Quality assets; Low fees; Powered by super smart technology. Crowd-funded investment opportunities offer easy access to institutional-caliber real estate. Fundrise can help you develop a diversified portfolio strategy across numerous investment funds. More than 150k active investors have earned $100M+ in net dividends so far. Start building wisely today. Tech Reigniting growth Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is planning a foray into video games, hiring a former Electronic Arts (EA) and Facebook (FB) executive to lead the effort. Mike Verdu will join the company as vice president of game development as the streaming arena gets increasingly crowded with rivals like Disney+ (DIS) and HBO Max (T). Verdu also served as chief creative officer for Zynga (ZNGA) between 2009 and 2012, and has been involved with titles like The Sims, Plants vs. Zombies and the Star Wars franchises. Not a totally new push: At the E3 gaming conference in 2019, Netflix revealed it would release a console and PC title based on Stranger Things, and later unveiled a game based on Dark Tactics. The same year, it pointed to Fortnite as its competition in a letter to shareholders. The company has also produced anime adaptations of popular gaming franchises, including Dota and Castlevania. Netflix hopes to offer video games on its streaming platform within the next year and has started advertising for developer-related positions on its website. Gaming would appear as a new programming genre (like documentaries and stand-up specials), though the company doesn't currently have plans to charge for the extra content. The latest news dinged shares of turnaround hopeful GameStop (NYSE:GME), which fell 7% on Wednesday, while Netflix headed higher, finishing the day up 1.4% and rising further in AH trading. Analyst commentary: "This is a natural extension of Netflix's content strategy, allowing it to mine intellectual property from popular shows like Stranger Things. Though it may not generate much additional revenue, it will help deepen engagement and increase the service’s appeal and pricing power," said Geetha Ranganathan, media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. "Don't expect this to be a turning point, but it shows that the company will explore new formats to increase time spent on the platform." (3 comments) Global Next steps for Beijing Fresh data from China overnight showed the nation's economy expanding at a 7.9% pace in the second quarter, boosted by strong readings on industrial output (+8.3% Y/Y), retail sales (+13.9% Y/Y) and fixed-asset investment (+12.6% Y/Y) for June. However, the GDP number did miss expectations for a rise of 8.1%, weighed down by higher raw material costs and new coronavirus outbreaks. The figure was also far slower than the 18.3% Y/Y jump recorded during the first three months of the year, but no one had forecast that rate to continue given the statistical distortions from the beginning of the pandemic. Bigger picture: Despite some economic resilience, expectations are building that policymakers may have to do more to support the recovery. Beijing announced a cut to its new reserve ratio requirement last week, freeing up more liquidity in the banking sector for lending. Stock in Shanghai even rose 1% following the latest data on increased chances China will intervene more forcefully to keep its growth momentum going in the latter half of 2021. "The domestic economic recovery is uneven," said Liu Aihua, an official at the National Bureau of Statistics of China. "We should also be aware that the coronavirus continues to mutate globally, and external instabilities and uncertainties abound." Tough talk: The Biden administration has agreed to extend the Trump era suspension of economic dialogue with China, which had governed ties between the two nations during the Bush and Obama years. In fact, several U.S. actions in recent days have deepened the confrontational approach, including new import controls for Xinjiang, warning American businesses in Hong Kong and excluding Beijing from a digital trade agreement. For China, its economic strategy has been focused on controlling capital outflows and boosting domestic consumption (especially post-COVID), so engaging with the outside world may not be a top priority at the moment. (3 comments) Central Banking Digital euro "The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has decided to launch the investigation phase of a digital euro project," the central bank announced in a press release. "Our work aims to ensure that in the digital age citizens and firms continue to have access to the safest form of money, central bank money." Another excerpt: "The investigation phase will last 24 months and aim to address key issues regarding design and distribution. A digital euro must be able to meet the needs of Europeans while at the same time helping to prevent illicit activities and avoiding any undesirable impact on financial stability and monetary policy. This will not prejudge any future decision on the possible issuance of a digital euro, which will come only later. In any event, a digital euro would complement cash, not replace it." Go deeper: The statement discusses Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and the concerns around energy usage, noting the environmental friendliness of the digital euro vs. the most popular cryptocurrency. The effort is part of a drive by central banks to meet growing demand for digital payments and tackle a boom in private sector cryptos and decentralized finance. The ECB has also experimented using its own instant payment system in combination with distributed ledger technology (a.k.a. blockchain) to issue and distribute its digital euros. (143 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China +1%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude -0.9% at $72.50. Gold +0.3% at $1830.80. Bitcoin +0.3% at $32509. Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.33% Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook 8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 Import/Export Prices 9:15 Industrial Production 9:30 Powell Testifies on Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory 11:00 Fed's Evans Speech 4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet Companies reporting earnings today » ​ What else is happening... Cathie Wood: Bitcoin (BTC-USD), China stocks deserve 'valuation downgrade.' Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) vaccine linked to new auto-immune condition in Europe. Mark Wahlberg-backed fitness chain F45 (NYSE:FXLV) goes public. Won't pass? Cannabis stocks hit on legalization bill concerns. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) rises again after J.P. Morgan lifts price target. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) founder severs ties with cryptocurrency world. Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) to kill Fleets feature, rival to Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) Stories. Hidden fees... LendingClub (NYSE:LC) settles lawsuit with Federal Trade Commission. Facebook (FB) wants FTC Chair to recuse herself in antitrust case - DJ.

​

 

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments July 15, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE BULL CASE FOR BANKS) (JPM), (BAC), (C), (WFC), (GS), (MS)

​ The Bull Case for BanksBanks have become the call option on a US economic recovery. When the economic data runs hot, banks rally. When it’s cold, they sell off. So, in recent months, bank share prices have been soaring. You now have to ask the question of when the data stays hot, how high will banks run? There also is a huge sector rotation issue staring you in the face. Where would you rather put new money, stocks at all-time highs trading at ridiculous multiples, or a quality sector in the bargain basement? Big institutions have already decided what to do and are buying every dip in financials. Banks certainly took it on the nose with the onset of the pandemic. Interest rates went to zero and loan default rates soared, demanding a massive increase in loan loss provisions. Much more stringent accounting rules also kicked in during January known as “Current Expected Credit Losses.” That requires banks to write off 100% of their losses immediately, rather than spread them out over a period of years. Then in June, the Federal Reserve banned bank share buybacks and froze dividends to preserve capital in expectation of more loan defaults. So what happens next? For a start, fall down on your knees and thank Dodd-Frank, the Obama-era financial regulation bill. Banks carped for years that it unnecessarily and unfairly tied their hands by limiting leverage ratios to only 10:1. Morgan Stanley reached 40:1 going into the Great Recession and barely made it out alive, while ill-fated Lehman Brothers reached a suicidal 100:1 and didn’t. That meant the banks went into the pandemic with the strongest balance sheets in decades. No financial crisis here. Thanks to government efforts to bring the current Great Depression to a quick end, generous fees have been raining down on the banks from the numerous loan programs they are helping to implement. And trading profits? You may have noticed that options trading volume is up a monster 100% so far in 2021. That falls straight to the banks’ bottom lines. If you’re wondering why your online trading platform keeps crashing, that’s why. I list below my favorite bank investments using the logic that during depressions, you want to buy Rolls Royces, Teslas, and Cadillacs at deep discounts, not Volkswagens, Fiats, or Trabants. JP Morgan (JPM) - is the crown jewel of the sector, with the best balance sheet and the strongest customers. It has over-reserved for losses that are probably never going to happen, stowing away some $25 billion in the last quarter alone. Morgan Stanley (MS) - Brokerage-oriented ones like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are benefiting the most from the explosion in stock and options trading. I’ll pick my former employer (MS), where I once accounted for 80% of equity division profits, as (GS) is still mired in the aftermath of the $5 billion Malaysia scandal. Bank of America (BAC) - is another quality play with a fortress balance sheet. Citigroup (C) – is the leveraged play in the sector with a slightly weaker balance sheet and more aggressive marketing strategy. It seems like they’re always trying to catch up with (JPM). This week’s revelation of a surprise $900 million “operational loss” and the penalties to follow knocked 13% of the share price. This is the high volatility play in the sector. And what about Wells Fargo (WFC) you may ask, the cheapest bank of all? Unfortunately, it still has to wear a hair suit because of its many regulatory transgressions, before, during, and after the financial crisis so I’ll give it a miss. Oh, and Warren Buffet is selling too. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ [h=2]The One[/h]​ ​

Quote of the Day“If you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet.

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[Bozzie]

July 16, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

Jay Powell said that crypto has “completely failed” to become a legitimate payment system.Jose Luis Magana/Associated Press

[h=2]The week in cryptocurrency[/h]

Even crypto enthusiasts have mixed feelings about their culture and markets. So it’s no wonder that lawmakers and regulators are torn over digital assets, as developments this week made clear.

Cryptocurrencies have “completely failed” to become a legitimate payment system, the Fed chair, Jay Powell, said yesterday at a Senate hearing. He added that so-called stablecoins — cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to the dollar or another asset like gold, with the idea of making them a predictable means of exchange — are dangerously unregulated. Central banks could step in and develop digital versions of their currencies, but Powell is “legitimately undecided” about the benefits of doing so, he told senators.

The Fed will put out a report on a digital dollar around September; the European Central Bank began a study of a digital euro this week.

“Smart legislation” is on the way “in the coming months,” Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, a Bitcoin holder and congressional crypto champion, said after the hearing. Ms. Lummis, a Republican, had pressed Powell to be precise about terms, warning against speaking about all digital assets interchangeably. “It’s important to be working from common definitions to have a clear legal framework,” Lummis said. Writing laws for the fast-moving industry won’t be easy.

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And then there is Dogecoin. The token was created years ago as a joke against crypto culture, but it has recently minted millionaires, generated a big chunk of Robinhood’s revenue and even caught Powell’s attention at the Fed. Dogecoin’s co-creator, Jackson Palmer, forcefully denounced the cryptocurrency world in sweeping terms this week, and even those still in the industry didn’t entirely disagree.

Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of one of the largest crypto exchanges, FTX, called Dogecoin the “asset of the year” because it is a “reflection of our era.” When millions of traders can join forces online to push up the prices of joke cryptocurrencies or meme stocks, it alters the meaning of value. That phenomenon is arguably “bad for the world,” he told DealBook. Sitting next to a painting of the dog that is Dogecoin’s mascot, a gift he keeps by his desk, Bankman-Fried said: “This is the coin we deserve, for better or worse.”

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Floods devastate Europe, and climate change is blamed. More than 90 are dead and hundreds remain unaccounted for after water from storm-swollen rivers rushed through Belgium, Germany and surrounding areas. The flooding, which lawmakers and activists attributed to climate change, came days after the E.U. announced its ambitious blueprint for moving its economy away from fossil fuels.

Companies resume giving to Republicans who opposed certifying the 2020 presidential election. American Airlines gave $2,500 to one such lawmaker in June, months after halting all corporate PAC donations in the wake of the Jan. 6 riots. Other companies that have restarted donations to election objectors, according to filings released this week, include Aflac, Cigna and UPS.

Social media takes fire from government and sports figures. Dr. Vivek Murthy, the U.S. surgeon general, called the rise of misinformation about Covid-19 on tech platforms “an urgent threat to public health.” And the English soccer star Bukayo Saka called out Facebook, Instagram and Twitter for failing to stop racist abuse aimed at him and several teammates after the team’s European championship loss.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Soho House disappoints in its first day of trading. Shares in Membership Collective Group, the parent company of the exclusive chain of clubs, opened below their offering price yesterday and closed down nearly 10 percent, making the debut a so-called busted I.P.O.

Who bids $28 million to fly to space, then backs out over “scheduling conflicts”? The original winner of an auction to fly with Jeff Bezos on a Blue Origin rocket next week dropped out, citing a curious excuse. That person will be replaced by Oliver Daemen, the 18-year-old son of a private equity executivewho was a runner-up in the bidding.

[h=2]California’s revolving door[/h]

Disney recently joined the growing ranks of companies that are shifting jobs out of California to cheaper places. But it’s not all one-way traffic: Many workers who left during the worst of the pandemic are returning to the Golden State.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Heading out: Disney said it will move about 2,000 jobs, mostly from its parks and products divisions, from the Los Angeles area to central Florida. (The plan has been in the works for two years, the company said.) The entertainment giant stressed that it wasn’t abandoning Southern California — the home of Disneyland and its movie and TV studios — as its base.

Coming back: Despite warnings of a great exodus from the Bay Area to more affordable locales like Ohio or low-tax cities like Miami, many tech workers are quietly moving back, The Times’s Kellen Browning reports. Said one returnee: “I felt like I was getting back to my life.”

In more California news: Los Angeles has reimposed indoor face mask requirements, even among the fully vaccinated, to fight an outbreak of the Delta variant.

[h=2]“We just call it the variant.”[/h]

—Ed Bastian, the C.E.O. of Delta Air Lines, on how the airline refers to the form of the coronavirus known as the Delta variant.

[h=2]The trans-Atlantic antitrust dance[/h]

The review of an $8 billion deal between the life sciences companies Illumina and Grail may point to a new playbook for antitrust enforcement. Regulators are looking to block the merger in the U.S. and Europe, a trans-Atlantic coordination that unlocks resources to question more deals as political pressure mounts to investigate whether corporations, particularly Big Tech, are squashing competition.

E.U. competition officials told The Wall Street Journal as much: They expect greater alignment with the Biden administration on antitrust enforcement.

The background: In September, the gene sequencing company Illumina announced that it was buying Grail, a maker of early cancer detection tests. (Grail was spun off by Illumina in 2016.) The companies operate in different parts of the supply chain, with Illumina upstream, making gene sequencing machinery, and Grail downstream, making a test that is run on those machines. The authorities in the U.S. say Illumina is the only provider of DNA sequencing that is used in combination with Grail’s tests. Regulators are concerned that the combined company would have the power to block research by Grail’s potential competitors.

Europe is moving to a full-scale review of the deal, Illumina confirmed to DealBook, after regulators rejected the companies’ proposed concessions yesterday. That works for the U.S. authorities, who have traditionally acted independently of their international colleagues. In May, the F.T.C. dropped a request to stop the merger in federal court, while proceeding with an internal case. Not litigating will save resources and Europe’s examination holds up the deal anyway, the F.T.C. said.

Can they do that? Illumina argues that the authorities in the E.U., in order to claim they have the right to examine the deal, are invoking a rule meant for countries with limited competition resources. The company is challenging the review in a European court. Illumina’s C.E.O., Francis deSouza, says Grail doesn’t operate in Europe yet, so if the review stands, that may open the door for Europe to intervene in deals between companies with limited or no E.U. presence.

“Perhaps we’re getting caught in anti-tech momentum,” deSouza told DealBook. Democrats in Congress recently proposed sweeping legislationtargeting competition in the digital age and the White House issued a sprawling executive order on reining in corporate power. Olivier Guersent, a top E.U. antitrust official, told The Journal that his team has been in touch with regulators in the U.S. about recent cases “so they would benefit from our learning curve.”

[h=2]Weekend reading: Boards for the new age of business[/h]

Shareholders are flexing their muscles. See, for example, the rising success of proxy proposals promoting environmental, social and governance (E.S.G.) issues, most notably when the environmentally minded activist firm Engine No. 1 won three seats on ExxonMobil’s board. Resistance is futile, say the authors of the new book “Talent, Strategy, Risk: How Investors and Boards Are Redefining TSR.”

The old approach to TSR — total shareholder return — needs a refresh.Obsessing over share prices and dividends distorts priorities, write Bill McNabb, the former chairman and C.E.O. of the fund management giant Vanguard; Ram Charan, a business adviser; and Dennis Carey of the consulting firm Korn Ferry. The new TSR should focus on people (talent), plans (strategy) and potential problems (risk), they write. “If the board can get the new TSR right, the old TSR will take care of itself.”

Of the three, talent should be a board’s focus, they say. Because people execute the strategies, as well as manage — and sometimes create — risks, directors must get involved in finding the right people for top jobs. “Listen to people who reframe the issues,” Charan told DealBook. “Diversity of thought brings value.”

E.S.G. is the big picture, not just a piece of the puzzle, the authors conclude. There is no single chapter devoted to the movement, they note, because the issues are interwoven in so many decisions. Diversity and sustainability cannot be hollow buzzwords: If investors are warning a company to take them seriously, directors better listen, said Charan. “Why did Exxon not think it was dead wrong?”

Want to share The New York Times with your friends and family? Invite them to enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

Intel is reportedly in talks to buy the chip maker GlobalFoundries for about $30 billion. (WSJ)

The buyout firm Hellman & Friedman raised $24.4 billion for its latest private equity fund, one of the biggest on record. (Bloomberg) Sydney Airport rejected a $16.6 billion takeover offer, betting it will be worth more after the pandemic. (Bloomberg) The autonomous vehicle company Aurora will go public by merging with a SPAC led by Mark Pincus and Reid Hoffman. (Reuters)

Policy

President Biden said his administration would warn U.S. companies about the risks of doing business in a “deteriorating” Hong Kong. (Bloomberg) “China Opened a National Carbon Market. Here’s Why it Matters.” (NYT) The E.U.’s highest court ruled that companies in Europe can ban women from wearing head scarves at work. (NYT) U.S. lawmakers are signing onto the “Free Britney” movement. (NYT)

Best of the rest

Shares in Didi Chuxing tumbled (again) after Beijing regulators visited its offices as part of a review of the ride-hailing giant’s data protection. (CNBC) The global computer chip shortage is fueling a car market frenzy and a debate over inflation. (NYT) England is lifting most of its pandemic restrictions on Monday, but employers don’t expect workers to rush to the office. (Bloomberg) Palm Beach is running out of mansions for sale. (CNBC) Slack messages aren’t truly private, as three fired Netflix executives have learned. (Hollywood Reporter)

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

 

[Bozzie]

What’s Next for Crypto Regulation


The rules are in flux as a new U.S. administration takes over.

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Gary Gensler will soon draw up crypto rules at the S.E.C.Credit...Kayana Szymczak for The New York Times

By Ephrat Livni



Jan. 30, 2021
The DealBook newsletter delves into a single topic or theme every weekend, and today it takes you on a quick tour of the regulatory scene for cryptocurrency, a fast-changing field that may represent the future of the financial industry. (If you don’t already receive the daily newsletter, sign up here.)
Stock market mania has made the headlines in recent days, but recall that a run-up in crypto prices to new highs a few weeks ago raised all of the questions about investor protections and regulations now vexing policymakers coming to grips with GameStop.
In fact, crypto prices are starting to go haywire again. Yesterday, Robinhood imposed restrictions on crypto trading, as it did for the stocks at the center of the market mayhem.
The crypto world has been ahead of the curve when it comes to platform outages, outsize volatility and trading based on memes. Tension between the establishment and the masses is at the core of cryptocurrency, which was born from a desire for decentralization.

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The latest resurgence comes with regulations in flux as a new U.S. administration takes over.

Image

Rules for renegades

There is a lot going on in crypto right now. Some say too much, too fast. Others complain that the United States is too slow, falling behind because its rules are outdated and unfit to address the inventions that blockchain technology has created.

• Refer someone to The Times.

They’ll enjoy our special rate of $1 a week.

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But markets and regulators have been here before. “The basic, overarching issue is that digital asset innovation has outpaced our regulatory framework,” said Timothy Massad of Harvard, who is formerly the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and has written extensively about crypto asset oversight. “That’s not unusual. There’s always a tension between innovation and regulation.”
It is not problematic, he said, unless regulators wait for a crisis and then respond in a rush, which they often do. “Regulation won’t stop innovation,” Mr. Massad said, “unless it’s done badly.”
But there is reason to believe the Biden administration’s financial regulators will be crypto savvy, based largely on the fact that Gary Gensler, the nominee for chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has taught courses on blockchain and digital currencies at M.I.T. Let’s drop in on a class to get a sense of him as a regulator …

Editors’ Picks

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What Gary Gensler thinks

Excerpts from an opening class in 2018 of the “Blockchain and Money” course taught by Mr. Gensler at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management:

• Are cryptocurrencies commodities or securities? “It’s a moving target,” he said of one the biggest debates among crypto regulators (more on that below). In a “broad sense of what the S.E.C. is trying to accomplish,” he said, consider this: “Whenever you’re thinking about public policy, folks like myself who once was a regulator, we think in the ‘duck test.’ And then we secondarily think about the actual words in the congressional act. Where is the common sense? And if it quacks and walks like a duck, it’s probably a security.”

• Regulators deal with start-ups and incumbents in different ways.In the fintech world, new challengers “take risks and beg for forgiveness, whereas incumbents tend to have to ask for permission,” Mr. Gensler said. This creates an “unlevel field,” but “I’m not crying for JPMorgan,” he added. “The big incumbents, they have their advantages.”

• Robinhood is a “wonderful” app. When he asked the class if they had ever used the fee-free trading app, half of the students raised their hands. “If anybody is interested, show up and I’ll do office hours on how Robinhood commercializes your order flow,” he said. “But it’s a sort of wonderful app. Millennials love it.”

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The S.E.C.: Ripple of uncertainty

Many of the things that Mr. Gensler lectured about will soon be applied in real-life regulatory scenarios, perhaps most immediately what to do about brokers straining to handle the trading volumes in heavily shorted stocks. For crypto, specifically, a priority will most likely be a case the S.E.C. filed late last month against Ripple Labs and two of its executives.
The agency accuses the execs and the company of having raised more than $1.3 billion since 2013 in unregistered securities offerings by selling the cryptocurrency XRP to investors. By not registering as a security, Ripple created an “information vacuum” for investors about how XRP was used to fund Ripple’s operations, the S.E.C. said.
The Ripple case is a moment of reckoning for many cryptocurrencies issued and distributed by companies or people, unlike Bitcoin, which is released via a decentralized network of computers and considered by most to be a commodity, which has fewer rules for buying and selling. To judge whether XRP is a security, the agency will apply the “Howey Test,” which refers to a Supreme Court case in 1946 involving a citrus farm in Florida.
Daily Business Briefing
Latest Updates

Updated July 16, 2021, 9:07 a.m. ET1 hour ago
1 hour ago

• Retail sales rose in June in latest sign of economic recovery.
• Regulators are conflicted over what to do about cryptocurrencies.
• Europe’s economic outlook has been clouded by the Delta variant.

The “complaint is historic, and not in a good way,” said Ripple’s defense counsel, Joseph Grundfest, a professor at Stanford Law and a former S.E.C. commissioner. The agency has “no coherent crypto strategy” and is imposing 20th-century precedent on 21st-century technology, he said. He declined to predict what Mr. Gensler’s crypto credentials might mean for the matter: “I’m not in the speculation business.”
In 2018, Mr. Gensler said there was “a strong case” that XRP was a security.
Two other issues to watch at the S.E.C.:

• Will it ever approve a Bitcoin exchange traded fund? Many have tried, and it would be a major move toward mainstreaming crypto investment.
• New rules for brokers holding digital assets. Last month, the agency requested input for custody regulations for cryptocurrencies that would address their “unique attributes.” The Blockchain Association, a trade group, was working on its submissions, but its executive director, Kristin Smith, said the crypto community was more worked up about rules proposed by the Treasury Department.

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The Treasury: Riled up about reporting

This week, the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN, extended by 60 days the comment period for proposed reporting rules on digital wallet transactions that it says would prevent money laundering. First announced on Dec. 23, with a 15-day comment period, the move incited outrage in the crypto community. The regulator has twice relented, noting the “robust” engagement that came after what opponents called “midnight rulemaking” by Steven Mnuchin, the secretary of the Treasury at the time.
It showed the crypto industry could force a pivot by a powerful agency. They argue that the proposed disclosure and record-keeping requirements are “arbitrary and unjustified,” as Jack Dorsey of Twitter and Square wrote in a comment letter:

The incongruity between the treatment of cash and cryptocurrency under FinCEN’s proposal will inhibit adoption of cryptocurrency and invade the privacy of individuals. Yet, the rule fails to explain the difference in risk.
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The procedural win doesn’t guarantee that the new secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, will shift gears on the matter. At her confirmation hearing, she suggested that many cryptocurrency transactions were associated with illicit activity, which Ms. Smith of the Blockchain Association called “a very disappointing reaction.” In written testimony released later, Ms. Yellen offered a more nuanced take, saying regulators should “look closely at how to encourage their use for legitimate activities while curtailing their use for malign and illegal activities.”

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The C.F.T.C.: Act fast

Chris Brummer, a professor at Georgetown Law and a “fintech guru,” is in the running to become the next commissioner of the C.F.T.C. Picked for the same gig in 2016, his nomination was withdrawn by the Trump administration. Since then, Mr. Brummer has testified before Congress on blockchain policy, edited an online journal and book on crypto assets, and written a textbook, “Fintech Law in a Nutshell.” He’s an expert, in other words.
Whoever takes over, “knowledge can’t fill the major regulatory gaps,” Mr. Massad, of Harvard, said. In his view, however crypto savvy the next financial regulators are, they can’t solve the problems that are raised by new technologies without a comprehensive law designed for digital assets. Otherwise, too much crypto activity will be left unregulated for too long.
A case in point, perhaps, is the civil enforcement action filed in the fall by the C.F.T.C., accusing BitMEX, a cryptocurrency exchange, of operating an unregistered trading platform selling crypto derivatives. It is accused of facilitating transactions that earned more than $1 billion in fees since 2014 without “the most basic compliance procedures.” BitMEX owes a reply next month. In a companion criminal case, the Department of Justice contends that BitMEX execs deliberately flouted anti-money laundering rules.

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The O.C.C.: Crypto comptrollers

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency briefly had a crypto insider at its helm: Brian Brooks left his job as chief legal counsel at Coinbase to become O.C.C.’s acting chief for eight months. Among the achievements that he cited when stepping down earlier this month was helping to clarify “certain activities related to crypto assets” for federal bank regulations.
The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, which features the heads of the Treasury, Fed, S.E.C. and C.F.T.C., sought his views on stablecoins — cryptocurrencies with steady values designed to be used as means of exchange — and the group’s statement seemed to bear his mark. It’s positive about the potential for digital tokens to “improve efficiencies, increase competition, lower costs and foster broader financial inclusion.”
Michael Barr, the dean of public policy at the University of Michigan who served as an assistant Treasury secretary under the Obama administration, is a leading candidate for the top O.C.C. job. He was once a member of Ripple’s board (he left before it was sued by the S.E.C.) and had advised a fintech trade group. The O.C.C. decides whether to grant banking charters to new firms, like fintech and crypto companies, and his ties to these firms have led some progressives to lobby against his appointment.
This week, Representatives Jamaal Bowman of New York and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts urged President Biden to nominate Mehrsa Baradaran, a banking law scholar at U.C. Irvine, to lead the agency and prioritize racial and economic equity. In Senate testimony in 2019, Ms. Baradaran said, “I do not believe cryptocurrency is the best solution to the problems of financial inclusion and equity in banking.”

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Looking ahead

What three crypto market watchers predict for rules and regulators in 2021:
▶︎ Petal Walker, special counsel at Wilmer Hale, formerly a chief counsel at the C.F.T.C.
Wants: A robust regulator to simplify the process for entrepreneurs.
Dreads: Fear-driven regulation that’s not data-driven and stifles innovation.
Person to watch:Mr. Gensler. On the Hill, the S.E.C. is seen as the top cop on the beat.
▶︎ Nikhilesh De, regulatory reporter at CoinDesk
Expects: Scrutiny on decentralized finance, or DeFi, after its banner year in 2020.
Suspects: Approving the FinCEN wallet rules will deter U.S. crypto businesses.
Person to watch: Mr. Gensler. The industry claims to seek clarity. He may provide it.

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▶︎ Timothy Massad, senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School, formerly the chairman of the C.F.T.C.
Wishes: Nonbank payment systems reliant on digital assets get more scrutiny.
Rejects: A piecemeal approach to crypto oversight.
Person to watch: Overall strategy, not specific individuals.




What do you think? What will be the important issue in crypto regulation this year? Who is the most important person to watch? Let us know: dealbook@nytimes.com



Ephrat Livni reports from Washington on the intersection of business and policy for DealBook. Previously, she was a senior reporter at Quartz, covering law and politics, and has practiced law in the public and private sectors. @el72champs

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[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments
July 16, 2021
Fiat LuxFeatured Trade:(JULY 14 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(JPM), (MS), (GS), (TLT), (TBT), (CRSP), (AAPL), (TSLA), (QS), (SPCE), (AMZN), (FCX), (FEYE), (PANW), (HACK)

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July 14 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&ABelow please find subscribers’ Q&A for the July 14 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Lake Tahoe, NV.
Q: Which banks are best?
A: JP Morgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS). That's the trifecta. If you look at the charts, the brokers Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are overwhelmingly outperforming everyone else. They will continue to do that, as the bull market in stocks is a money machine for them.
Q: What has caused interest rates to continue to drop so much in the last 1-2 months? Why are you confident you will see them rise from here on?
A: The reason they've dropped so much is there is a bond shortage (TLT). There is more demand for bonds and reach for yield around the world than the US government is able to supply. Therefore, the US government should do more borrowing and issue more bonds. That's what the market is telling them to do. When your 10-year yield goes to 1.2%, the message is that you're not borrowing enough, not that you're borrowing too much. How does this end? Eventually, the sheer volume of bond issuance will reach global demand. And we will also see some inflation, not much but some, and that will be enough to take us back up to the 1.75% yield that we had in March. I think we will see that by the end of the year, especially if the Fed tapers and cuts back at least the mortgage bond purchases, which is $40 billion/month. Why subsidize housing when there are nationwide bidding wars?
Q: Are you positive on CRISPR Technologies (CRSP)?
A: Yes, but it is a long-term play and I recommend the LEAPS on those that go out to 2023. That said, we did just have a big rally up to the 140s from the 100s, so that 40% was pretty good. But that's the way these small biotech’s trade you get long periods of no movement and then sudden explosive moves to the upside when the make a breakthrough.
Q: Are we going to see inflation?
A: We will have some inflation; but the major component of inflation now is used cars and rental cars, which are up 100% year on year, and that is totally unsustainable. That means a year from now, increase in used car prices will be zero, and will actually be a big drag on inflation. So that's what the Fed means when they say that any inflation will be temporary as we go through these tremendous YOY comparisons when demand goes from zero to near infinite. And that's happening in many sectors of the economy right now. You never get rich betting against a 40-year trend, and for inflation that is down.
Q: Has the market peaked for the short term?
A: My bet on a short-term peak is the last week of July, when all the big tech companies report. And then we classically get reasonable selloffs after that—buy the rumor, sell the news. That's our next entry point for long positions in this market. Since the presidential election, the index has been unable to drop more than 4.8% as there is so much money on the sidelines trying to get in.
Q: Should I be max long ProShares Ultra Short Treasury Bond Fund (TBT) LEAPS?
A: Just make sure they’re long dated LEAPS—at least six months to a year or longer. That way you have plenty of time for them to work. The current return on the (TBT) June 2022 $17-$19 vertical bull call LEAPS at $0.75 is 166%.
Q: What’s the chance of Biden’s budget passing?
A: 100%. It’s just a question of how much will be in there—we’re at $597 billion on infrastructure and $3.5 trillion for the rest of spending. That gives you a $4.1 trillion budget for the next fiscal year starting October 30, which is the biggest in history and biggest since WWII on an inflation-adjusted basis. That will go through and keep the stock market percolating for several more years. Dow $240,000 here we come!
Q: Would you sell calls against Apple (AAPL) today?
A: I would, I would do something like the August $165’s. Even then, it’s a high-risk trade because Apple has been on such a parabolic move for the last 2 months. So do that at your own risk; notice I’m not putting out trade alerts telling you to short Apple in any way shape or form. My target for the yearend is $200.
Q: Will Tesla (TSLA) use QuantumScape (QS) batteries to make their own solid-state ones?
A: Tesla will make their own solid-state batteries They are far ahead of QuantumScape with their own technology and eventually, they will wipe them out. So, I am not recommending QuantumScape—they are 10 years behind Tesla. Sorry, I didn’t make that clearer in my research piece.
Q: When do you expect the 7% drop in the market?
A: August/September is usually when the market bottoms. Let’s see if we get it this time. Predicting down moves has been a somewhat of a fool's errand in a market when you have infinite QE, infinite fiscal stimulus, infinite monetary stimulus, and the highest economic growth in history. And again, I am upgrading my 10-year forecast for the market; I’m not looking for a Dow 120,000 by 2030 anymore, I’m looking for a Dow 240,000, and when you’re still at only a measly 34,933, you don’t get many 7% drops. In fact, we’ve had none since the election.
Q: Could Tesla make an all-time high by the end of the year?
A: Yes, especially if they make progress on the solid-state batteries. Tesla (TSLA) tends to have sideways periods that can last years and then explosive moves to the upside. It almost trades like a biotech stock.
Q: Is Virgin Galactic (SPCE) a buy here off the back of their successful rocket launch last week?
A: No, any business dependent on retail sales of tickets at $250,000 each has absolutely no chance of ever making a profit in its life. As much as I like Richard Branson, who I used to fly with, the fact is that this business will never make money. It's more of a public relations vehicle for all of the hundreds of Virgin Brands. They’ll never get the cost low enough to make this economic for the average person. Spaceships aren’t cheap, and they don’t sell them at Costco. In fact, you notice that after the rocket launch, the stock dropped 20%. However, if they do drop the price to $100,000 even I might buy a ticket but only if they let me fly the thing.
Q: What is your favorite FANG stock other than Apple?
A: It is Amazon (AMZN). I think it hits $5,000 by the end of the year. If they try to break it up it’ll be worth $10,000, which it will get to eventually (in like 5 years) anyway. They just have absolutely everything working there.
Q: Why is Alaska the worst state to do business in?
A: Well, first of all, it’s only habitable for like 6 months of the year, and otherwise it’s too cold and heating bills are enormous. Also, nothing is produced in Alaska besides tourism and oil, which is subject to enormous volatility. They actually canceled the oil payouts for Alaskan citizens last year. Anything else you want to do in Alaska requires transportation costs from the US. So essentially there are 49 other better states to bring business ideas to.
Q: Will Amazon ever split their stock?
A: No, there's no reason or net benefit to it. Jeff Bezos has never been prone to financial engineering because he never needed to. Natural earnings growth was always so enormous he didn’t need to bother with any of these side games to jack the stock price. So, I would say “no” on a stock split.
Q: In a two-year LEAPS, you’re taking a long position, yes?
A: When you do a LEAPS spread, you're buying a 1-2 year call and you’re selling short a 1-2 year call against it. That cuts your price by ⅔ and increases your leverage by a factor of 3 and is a far greater risk/reward than just buying the 2-year call outright. If you want to learn more about LEAPS, send us an email about the Mad Hedge Concierge Service that is by application only.
Q: When is the recording up?
A: About two hours.
Q: Do you still love Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?
A: Yes, it’s taking the inflation vacation right now with the rest of the commodities, but I expect it to come roaring back by the end of the year. Electric vehicles need 200 pounds of copper compared to only 20 pounds for internal combustion cars.
Q: Thoughts on Fireye (FEYE)?
A: Yes, we love Fireye along with the rest of the cybersecurity plays, so buy on the dips. Hacking is a growth market and will never go out of fashion. BUY (PANW) and (HACK) on dips.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH or TECHNOLOGY LETTER, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

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Quote of the Day“The French have more fun in one year than the English do in ten,” said John Adams, America’s second president, and one-time ambassador to Paris and London.

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[CoachCB]

I added some AMZN. I now own 2.5 shares!!

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Bozzie thank you for all of the crypto rules and regulation information , I am very heavily invested right now in cryptos and doling a lot of arbitrage , and just waiting for a market correction to get back in the stock market. Your 07-14-2021 post was a very good read also.

 

[Bozzie]

Bozzie thank you for all of the crypto rules and regulation information , I am very heavily invested right now in cryptos and doling a lot of arbitrage , and just waiting for a market correction to get back in the stock market. Your 07-14-2021 post was a very good read also.

Good to see you back here smart....I'll keep pulling whatever I find on crypto..I can't copy Bloomberg or Barrons unfortunately.
Crypto is the most interesting story going right now IMO.....