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These lefty companies are going to regret going "woke". MLB is going to get crushed. I'm personally sick of it.
 

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Global Market Comments
April 5, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or A SUPERCHARGED ECONOMY IS SUPERCHARGING THE STOCK MARKET),
(SPX), (LRCX), (AMAT), (VIX), (BA), (LUV), (AKL), (TSLA), (DAL)

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The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or A Supercharged Economy is Supercharging the Stock MarketStocks have risen at an annualized rate of 40% so far in 2021. If that sounds too good to be true, it is.

But then, we have the greatest economic and monetary stimulus of all time rolling out also.

Of the $10 trillion in government spending that has or is about to be approved, virtually none of it has been spent. There hasn’t been enough time. It turns out that it is quite hard to spend a trillion dollars. Corporate America and its investors are salivating.

The best guess is that the new spending will create five million jobs for the economy over eight years, taking the headline Unemployment Rate down to a full employment 3-4%. The clever thing about the proposal is that it is financed over 15 years, which takes advantage of the current century's low interest rates.

That is something many strategists have been begging the US Treasury to do for years. Take the free money while it is on offer.

There is something Rooseveltean about all this, with great plans and huge amounts of money, like 10% of GDP on the table. But then we did just come out of a Great Depression, with unemployment peaking at 25 million, the same as in 1933.

The package is so complex that it is unlikely to pass by summer. Until then, stocks will probably continue to rally on the prospect.

It makes my own forecast of a 30% gain in stocks and a Dow Average of 40,000 for 2021 look overly cautious, conservative, and feeble (click here). But then, you have to trade the market you have, not the one you want.

And here is the really fun part. After a grinding seven-month-long correction, technology stocks have suddenly returned from the dead. All the best names gained 10% or more in the previous four-day holiday-shortened week. Clearly, investors have itchy trigger fingers with tech stocks at these levels.

In the meantime, technology stock prices have fallen 20-50% while earnings have jumped by 20% to 40%. What was expensive became cheap. It was a setup that was begging to happen.

This is great news because technology stocks are the core to all non-indexed retirement funds.

The S&P 500 (SPX) blasted through 4,000, a new all-time high, off the back of one of the largest infrastructure spends in history. Job creation over the next eight years is estimated at 5 million. Corporate earnings will go through the roof. Tech is back from the dead. Leaders were semiconductor equipment makers like my old favorites, Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). The Volatility Index (VIX) sees the $17 handle, hinting at much higher to come. The next leg up for the Roaring Twenties has begun!

Biden Infrastructure Bill Tops $2.3 Trillion. Of course, some of it isn’t infrastructure but other laudable programs that starved under the Trump administration, like spending on seniors (I’m all for that!). Still, spending is spending, and this will turbocharge the economy all the way out to say….2024. The impact on interest rates will be minimal as long as the Fed keeps overnight rates near zero, as they have promised to do for nearly three years. Making the power grid carbon-free by 2035 is a goal and would require a 50% increase in solar national installations. Infrastructure spending is always a win-win because the new tax revenues it generates always pay for it in the end.

March Nonfarm Payroll Report exploded to the upside, adding a near record 917,000 jobs, and taking the headline Unemployment Rate down to 6.0%. Employers are front running Biden’s infrastructure plans, hiring essential workers while they are still available. Look for labor shortages by summer, especially in high paying tech. Leisure & Hospitality was the overwhelming leader at a staggering 280,000, followed by Government at 136,000 and Construction at 110,000.


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Goldilocks lives on, with a 1.0% drop in Consumer Spending in February, keeping inflation close to zero. The Midwest big freeze is to blame. You can’t buy anything when there’s no gas for the car and no electricity once you get there, as what happened in Texas. The $1,400 stimulus checks have yet to hit much of the country, although I got mine. It couldn’t be a better environment for owning stocks. Keep buying everything on dips.

Consumer Confidence soared, up 19.3 points to 109 in February, according to the Conference Board. It’s the second-biggest move on record. A doubling of the value of your home AND your stock portfolio in a year is making people feel positively ebullient. Oh, and free money from the government is in the mail.

The Suez Canal reopened, allowing 10% of international trade to resume. A massive salvage effort that freed the 200,000 ton Ever Given. The ship will be grounded for weeks pending multiple inspections. Somebody’s insurance rates are about to rachet up. It all shows how fragile is the international trading system. Deliveries to Europe will still be disrupted for months. It puts a new spotlight on the Arctic route from Asia to Europe, which is 4,000 nm shorter.

Boeing (BA) won a massive order, some 100 planes from Southwest Air (LUV), practically the only airline to use the pandemic to expand. Boeing can fill the order almost immediately from 2020 cancelled orders for the $50 million 737 MAX. Keep buying both (BA), (LUV), and (AKL) on dips.

Tesla blows away Q1 deliveries, with a 184,400 print, or 47.5% high than the 2021 rate. That is without any of the new Biden EV subsidies yet to kick in. Lower priced Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs accounted for virtually all of the report. The Shanghai factory is kicking in as a major supplier to high Chinese demand. The one million target for 2021 is within easy reach. Traders saw this coming (including me) and ramped the stock up $100. Buy (TSLA) on dips. My long-term target is $10,000.


United Airlines hires 300 pilots to front-run expected exposure summer travel. CEO Scott Kirby says domestic vacation travel has almost completely recovered. Keep buying (LUV), (AKL), and (DAL) on dips.

When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% to 120,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 120,000 here we come!

My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch profit reached 0.38% gain during the first two days of April on the heels of a spectacular 20.60% profit in March.

I used the Monday low to double up my long in Tesla. After that, it was off to the races for all of tech. I caught a $100 move on the week.

My new large Tesla (TSLA) long expires in 9 trading days.

That leaves me with 50% cash and a barrel full of dry powder.

My 2021 year-to-date performance soared to 44.47%. The Dow Average is up 9.40% so far in 2021.

That brings my 11-year total return to 467.02%, some 2.08 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My 11-year average annualized return now stands at an unbelievable 41.20%, the highest in the industry.

My trailing one-year return exploded to positively eye-popping 108.51%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives.

We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 30.6million and deaths topping 555,000, which you can find here.

The coming week will be dull on the data front.

On Monday, April 5, at 10:00 AM, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March is released.

On Tuesday, April 6, at 10:00 AM, US Consumer Inflation Expectations for March are published.
On Wednesday, April 7 at 2:00 PM, the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee Meeting are published.
On Thursday, April 8 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are printed.
On Friday, April 9 at 8:30 AM we get the Producer Price Index for March. At 2:00 PM, we learn the Baker-Hughes Rig Count.

As for me, I recently turned 69, so I used a nice day to climb up to the Lake Tahoe High Sierra rim at 9,000 feet, found a nice granite boulder sit on to keep dry, and tried to figure out what it was all about.

I’ve been very lucky.

I had a hell of a life that I wouldn’t trade for anything. I wouldn’t change a bit (well, maybe I would have bought more Apple shares at a split-adjusted 30 cents in 1998. I knew Steve was going to make it).

Since I’ve always loved what I did, journalist, trader, combat pilot, hedge fund manager, writer, I don’t think I have “worked” a day in my life.

I fought for things I believed in passionately and won, and kept on winning. It’s good to be on the right side of history.

I have loved and lost and loved again and lost again, and in the end outlived everyone, even my younger brother, who died of Covid-19 a year ago. The rule here is that it is always the other guy who dies. My legacy is five of the smartest kids you ever ran into. They’re great traders as well.

So I’ll call it a win.

I visited my orthopedic surgeon the other day to get a stem cell top-up for my knees and she asked how long I planned to keep coming back. I told her 30 years, and I meant it.

There’s nothing left for me to do but to make you all savvy in the markets and rich, something I leap out of bed every morning at 5:00 AM to accomplish.

Enjoy your weekend.

Stay healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader


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The Way Forward is Clear

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Quote of the DayThe 40-year bull market in bonds is over,” said Dr. Jeremy Siegal of the Wharton School of Business. I agree heartily.

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LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Top News
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As the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank begin in a virtual format, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had a message for governments across the globe. "It is important to work with other countries to end the pressures of tax competition and corporate tax base erosion... to make sure the global economy thrives based on a more level playing field in the taxation of multinational corporations," she said in her first major speech on international economic policy. Yellen is specifically advocating for the adoption of a global minimum levy for corporations in order to avoid a "race to the bottom" on taxation.

Backdrop: President Biden has proposed hiking the U.S. corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, partially undoing the Trump administration's cut from 35% in its 2017 tax legislation. Biden also wants to set a minimum U.S. tax on overseas corporate income to make it harder for companies to shift earnings offshore. A minimum global corporate income tax could partially offset any consequences that may arise from the U.S. corporate tax hike and would help pay for the White House's ambitious $2.3T infrastructure plan.

Questions to ask: Will nations (or Congress) agree to the tax? What will the level be? And will it include enforcement mechanisms or be effective enough to eliminate tax havens or low tax jurisdictions?

While many countries have endorsed a minimum tax (there's been talk at the OECD for years), others may not embrace one unless they can claim a bigger stake in the profits of U.S. tech companies. The debate also touches on the ongoing friction in international taxation: whether to tax companies based on the location of their income or the location of their headquarters. The U.S. didn't have a pure system before or after the 2017 tax act, which leaned toward taxes based on where revenues are generated, though the Biden administration appears to be focusing more on the latter. (17 comments)
Stocks
More bullish economic data saw investors drive stocks higher in a broad advance on Monday. U.S. services industry activity jumped to a record high in an ISM survey following Friday's bumper jobs report that showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls surging in March. Traders scooped up underperforming sectors like tech and communication services, and the only sector to finish in the red was energy, which was hit by a drop in oil prices. Cruise operators meanwhile had a stellar session, with Norwegian (NCLH) leading the S&P 500 to finish the day up 7% after asking the CDC to resume trips from American ports starting July 4.

Bigger picture: While the Dow and S&P continue to notch new records, the Nasdaq is still about 3% below its February high, as the recent spike in bond yields made growth stocks less attractive. However, yields haven't budged much in recent days and lockdowns in countries like France have recently helped give the sector a boost. Following the record session, stock futures ticked lower in overnight trading, while the Labor Department is expected to report job openings data for February. The IMF today is also expected to raise forecasts for 2021 global growth in response to U.S. fiscal stimulus and vaccinations.

"It looks like the U.S. [economy] has just hit the accelerator," said Brian O'Reilly, head of market strategy for Mediolanum International Funds. "We've certainly seen a moderation in the one-way bet [on cyclical sectors] that was being placed until maybe the middle of March. The main risk is still a reversal in Fed language."

In crypto markets: Ether (ETH-USD) has been rallying strongly, up another 3% overnight to $2,112. The coin powers the Ethereum blockchain, a platform that is touted for its so-called decentralized finance, or DeFi, applications. The growing excitement saw the value of the entire crypto market top $2T for the first time on Monday, just two months after it surpassed $1T, as retail and institutional investors continue to pile into the space.
Sponsored by Nextech
Nextech AR provides augmented reality solutions designed to impact the bottom line. They are positioned for massive growth in a market expected to reach $72.7 billion by 2024. Current offerings span across four verticals: conferencing, ecommerce, advertising, and entertainment. Nextech’s cutting edge 3D interactive technology in the online shopping segment can lead to a 30% increase in shopper’s likelihood to buy. It’s that kind of measurable ROI, coupled with Nextech’s superior technology, that makes Nextech the next great AR pick. Learn More
Financials
Fallout from the Archegos affair keeps making headlines as Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) logged a $4.7B hit following the meltdown of the investment firm. Credit Suisse's investment banking and risk chiefs will also get the boot, along with a number of business heads. The Swiss bank further scrapped proposals for executive bonuses for the year and slashed its dividend to a proposed 0.10 francs per share (from a payout of 0.2926 francs).

Recap: In late March, Archegos defaulted on margin calls from several global investment banks, including Credit Suisse, Nomura (NMR), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS). The fund had large, concentrated positions in ViacomCBS (VIAC), Baidu (BIDU) and other companies, but its use of total return swaps helped hide its high exposure from the banks. The derivative contracts exposed the firm to severe losses when the trades went sour, with fund manager Bill Hwang reportedly losing $8B in just ten days.

Credit Suisse was forced to dump a significant amount of stock to sever its ties with Hwang's firm, and now expects a first quarter pretax loss of around 900M Swiss francs ($960M). Meanwhile, another round of block trades on Monday saw Credit Suisse dump Archegos-linked stocks like ViacomCBS and Vipshop (VIPS), marking the second crisis to hit the bank in recent weeks. Earlier in March, Credit Suisse froze $10B in investment funds connected to now-insolvent Greensill Capital after marketing funds that financed the company's operations.

Outlook: The biggest source of banks' trading revenue was once client commissions, but those have narrowed over the last decade, leading their prime brokerage businesses to grow. That's where lenders provide financing for clients like hedge funds, as well as pooling trading and risk exposures to help drive profitability across their trading desks. However, banks have been struggling to handle a flood of deposits, while trying to not increase their capital requirements, which can partly explain the appeal of total return swaps involving Archegos. Balance sheet exposures must be carefully managed by institutions, and the ability to finance clients via prime brokerage does have its limits. (34 comments)
Covid
"Anything is on the table. Anything is possible, of course," Dr. Anthony Fauci had said in January regarding a U.S. vaccine passport, though he dispelled the notion in a Politico Dispatchpodcast on Monday. "I doubt that the federal government will be the main mover of a vaccine passport concept," he declared. "They may be involved in making sure things are done fairly and equitably, but I doubt if the federal government is going to be the leading element of that."

What may happen instead? Businesses, schools or hospitals could require vaccine documentation to enter buildings, or orders may be implemented at the state or local level. "I'm not saying that they should or that they would, but I'm saying you could foresee how an independent entity might say, 'well, we can't be dealing with you unless we know you're vaccinated,' but it's not going to be mandated from the federal government."

Vaccine passports could speed up travel or economic reopenings, but the idea of requiring the documents has become a point of political contention, while legal issues are still being debated. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order on Friday prohibiting businesses from requiring customers to show proof they have received a coronavirus vaccine and prevented the state government from issuing such passports. "It is necessary to protect the fundamental rights and privacies of Floridians and the free flow of commerce in the state," he announced, saying requiring immunization credentials "would create two classes of citizens."

Looking abroad: Israel launched its "green passport" program back in January to residents who have received a coronavirus vaccine or those who have recovered from the illness. The passport lifts some restrictions, including mandatory quarantine following exposure to an infected person or traveling abroad, and can be used for attending cultural and sporting events or eating inside restaurants. The EU also unveiled a proposal for vaccine passports in March, which would allow citizens to cross borders without quarantine requirements. (24 comments)
Sponsored by Nextech
Outlook
Work practices and conditions are in the spotlight at Amazon (AMZN), which is now the second-largest private employer in the country. Results from a unionization initiative at its facility in Bessemer, Alabama, called BHM1, are still pending, but a verdict is expected within days. Nearly 6,000 employees participated in the vote, making it the first such significant effort by Amazon workers in the U.S. If the effort succeeds, it would give workers the power to negotiate a contract that could lock in heavy changes to wages and working conditions, but even if it fails, it could inspire other Amazon warehouses to organize.

Bigger picture: Amazon has been fighting hard against the endeavor, and has successfully fended off unionization efforts elsewhere in the U.S., but other labor unrest is brewing. The retail behemoth apologized to Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis) on Monday after falsely denying that some of its drivers are forced at times to urinate in plastic bottles. "If that were true, nobody would work for us," the official Amazon Twitter account wrote, before the company backtracked in a blog post.

"We know that drivers can and do have trouble finding restrooms because of traffic or sometimes rural routes, and this has been especially the case during Covid when many public restrooms have been closed. Regardless of the fact that this is an industry-wide issue, we would like to solve it. We don’t yet know how, but will look for solutions."

Go deeper: The National Labor Relations Board recently found that Amazon illegally fired two UX designers last year for publicly pushing for the company to address warehouse worker concerns and its impact on climate change. The agency will accuse Amazon of unfair labor practices if it doesn't settle the case, according to correspondence viewed by the NYT. Last month, NBC News also reported that enough Amazon workers have filed charges against the company over the last year that the NLRB is considering launching a national investigation. (72 comments)
What else is happening...
How much time does Tim Cook have left at Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)?

Supreme court backs Google (GOOG) in Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) copyright case.

Taking advantage... GameStop (NYSE:GME) finally announces stock offering.

Goldman Sachs (GS) cancels its short call on the U.S. dollar.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) appeals federal order on Musk anti-union tweet.

Grayscale is 100% committed to converting GBTC into an ETF.

Nikola (NASDAQ:NKLA) falls after 'strange' barter transaction with ex-CEO.

Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) is starting to bring back pilots.

Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) gets lift as more analysts start Buy coverage.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) introduces dynamic ads for streaming services.

EU Commissioner says bloc may reach herd immunity by July 14.​
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong closed. China flat. India +0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.3%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +1.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +2.8% to $60.30. Gold +0.2%at $1731.60. Bitcoin +2.2% to $58724.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.7%
Today's Economic Calendar

 

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These lefty companies are going to regret going "woke". MLB is going to get crushed. I'm personally sick of it.

I don't really care much about the all star game I don't drink coke or fly delta much...I think MLB with be fine, basketball did the same thing in NC a few years ago, people were pissed now it's a distance memory.

I love baseball and I'll still be a huge fan... I don't like the politics in sports but I guess it's part of sports like every thing else theses days.. politics seems to rule the discord now.

Be well buddy
 

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I don't get his 'profit predictor' - and why it changes (today it's well into the 'sell' range).
 

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April 7, 2021
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Jamie Dimon thinks a boom is coming — but worries about too much of a good thing.Jeenah Moon/Reuters


[h=2]Dear shareholders …[/h]

The annual letter to shareholders by JPMorgan Chase’s chief Jamie Dimon was just published. The widely read letter is not just an overview of the bank’s business but also covers Mr. Dimon’s thoughts on everything from leadership lessons to public policy prescriptions.

“The U.S. economy will likely boom.” A combination of excess savings, deficit spending, a potential infrastructure bill, vaccinations and “euphoria around the end of the pandemic,” Mr. Dimon wrote, may create a boom that “could easily run into 2023.” That could justify high equity valuations, but not the price of U.S. debt, given the “huge supply” soon to hit the market. There is a chance that a rise in inflation would be “more than temporary,” he wrote, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively. “Rapidly raising rates to offset an overheating economy is a typical cause of a recession,” he wrote, but he hopes for “the Goldilocks scenario” of fast growth, gently increasing inflation and a measured rise in interest rates.

“Banks are playing an increasingly smaller role in the financial system.” Mr. Dimon cited competition from an already large shadow banking system and fintech companies, as well as “Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and now Walmart.” He argued those nonbank competitors should be more strictly regulated; their growth has “partially been made possible” by avoiding banking rules, he wrote. And when it comes to tougher regulation of big banks, he wrote, “the cost to the economy of having fail-safe banks may not be worth it.”


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“China’s leaders believe that America is in decline.” While the U.S. has faced tough times before, today “the Chinese see an America that is losing ground in technology, infrastructure and education — a nation torn and crippled by politics, as well as racial and income inequality — and a country unable to coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to accomplish national goals,” he wrote. “Unfortunately, recently, there is a lot of truth to this.”

“The solution is not as simple as walking away from fossil fuels.” Addressing climate change doesn’t mean “abandoning” companies that produce and use fossil fuels, Mr. Dimon wrote, but working with them to reduce their environmental impact. He sees “huge opportunity in sustainable and low-carbon technologies and businesses” and plans to evaluate clients’ progress according to reductions in carbon intensity — emissions per unit of output — which adjusts for factors like size.

Other notable news (and views) from the letter:


  • With more widespread remote working, JPMorgan may need only 60 seats for every 100 employees. “This will significantly reduce our need for real estate,” Mr. Dimon wrote.
  • JPMorgan spends more than $600 million a year on cybersecurity.
  • Mr. Dimon cited tax loopholes he thinks the U.S. could do without: carried interest, tax breaks for racing cars, private jets and horse racing, and a land conservation tax break for golf courses.

Some meta-analysis: This was Mr. Dimon’s longest letter yet, at 35,000 words over 66 pages. The steadily expanding letters — aside from a shorter edition last year, weeks after Mr. Dimon had emergency heart surgery — could be seen as a reflection of the range of issues top executives are now expected, or compelled, to address.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

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[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Toshiba considers a $20 billion takeover bid. The Japanese tech company said it had received a leveraged buyout offer from the private equity firm CVC Capital, sending its shares to a four-year high. Toshiba has had a series of scandals, and faces pressure from activist investors.

Amazon, a notable tax avoider, backs higher corporate taxes. Jeff Bezos said that he supported raising the corporate rate to help pay for President Biden’s infrastructure plans — though he didn’t mention the White House’s proposed rate, 28 percent. Other corporate chiefs are privately criticizing the potential tax rise.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

The company behind the Johnson & Johnson vaccine mix-up has a history of errors. Emergent BioSolutions, which the U.S. relied on to produce doses by J.&J. and AstraZeneca, had a made manufacturing errors before. Experts worry this may leave some Americans more wary of getting vaccinated, even as Mr. Biden has moved up the eligibility deadline for U.S. inoculations.

An electric aircraft maker sues a rival for intellectual property theft. Wisk, which is backed by Boeing and the Google founder Larry Page, said that former employees downloaded confidential information before joining Archer, a competitor. Archer, which is going public by merging with a SPAC run by Moelis & Company and which counts United Airlines as an investor, denied wrongdoing and said it was cooperating with a government investigation.

A blistering start for venture capital in 2021. Start-ups set a fund-raising quarterly record in the first three months of the year, raising more than $62 billion, according to the MoneyTree report from PwC and CB Insights. That’s more than twice the total a year earlier and represents nearly half of what start-ups raised in all of 2020.


[h=2]Why is the Amazon union vote taking so long?[/h]

Voting in the union election at an Amazon warehouse in Bessemer, Ala., ended on March 29, and counting began the next day, but the outcome is still unknown. What’s going on? It’s less about the number of ballots than how they’re counted.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

The stakes are high, for both Amazon and the labor movement. Progressive leaders like Bernie Sanders have argued a victory for the union, the first at an Amazon facility in the U.S., could inspire workers elsewhere to unionize. And Amazon is facing increased scrutiny for its market power and labor practices.

Despite the significance, only a tiny portion of Amazon’s work force was eligible to vote. About 5,800 workers mailed their ballots to the Birmingham office of the National Labor Relations Board. Counting each vote involves two envelopes: one giving the worker’s name and, inside that, another sealed envelope containing an anonymous ballot. Handling them has been a painstaking process:


  • In a private video conference, an N.L.R.B. staff member reads the names from the outer envelopes. Amazon and the union both have a chance to contest each worker’s eligibility.


  • Once Amazon and the union have gone back and forth over disputed voters, the N.L.R.B. counts the uncontested ballots anonymously and by hand, on a video conference open to reporters. This could start today.


  • Each side then has about a week to contest whether the vote was fair before the N.L.R.B. certifies it.


[h=2]“Economic fortunes within countries and across countries are diverging dangerously.”[/h]

— Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the I.M.F., on how the uneven rollout of vaccines poses a threat to the global economic recovery.


[h=2]Credit Suisse’s expensive mistakes[/h]

After the 2008 financial crisis, Credit Suisse emerged battered by high-risk bets and promised to do better. A series of recent scandals suggests it hasn’t, The Times’s Jack Ewing writes.

A recap of the Swiss bank’s troubles over the past year or so:


  • A spying scandal that led to the ouster of Tidjane Thiam as C.E.O.
  • Ties to Greensill Capital, the SoftBank-backed lender that has filed for insolvency and will lead to losses at the Swiss bank.
  • Its involvement with Archegos, whose hugely leveraged stock bets went south, saddling the bank with a big hit.

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It could have been worse. Rules requiring banks to hold more capital helped prevent the Archegos meltdown from posing a systemic threat. Still, Credit Suisse is paying dearly for it, replacing a half-dozen top executives, forgoing executive bonuses and halting stock buybacks. Its current chief, Thomas Gottstein, is facing closer scrutiny as well.

Credit Suisse’s troubles show that regulators must stay vigilant, critics say, as lenders chase profits in increasingly risky ways. The Swiss bank is “a straw in the wind that suggests there is a relaxation of risk management within banks because it is so difficult to make money on interest margins,” said Nicolas Véron of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.


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[h=2]Who’s behind that corporate veil?[/h]

The Treasury Department is introducing new rules on corporate transparency and it wants input. This week, it began a 30-day comment period on to-be-drafted regulations that would make it harder to obscure who controls a company. Among the details to be worked out are what entities should report and when; how to collect, protect and update information for a database; and the criteria for sharing with law enforcement.

“We could not be more excited,” Kenneth Blanco, the director of the Treasury’s Financial Criminal Enforcement Network (FinCEN), told bankers recently. The U.S. has been under pressure to address its vulnerability to money laundering and financial crimes:


  • In 2016, the international Financial Action Task Force gave the country a failing grade on transparency of company ownership.
  • In 2018, banks and financial institutions began having to collect that information from clients to help law enforcement identify individuals.
  • In January, Congress passed the Corporate Transparency Act, which requires businesses to report ownership to the government.

New rules could make forming small businesses, special purpose vehicles and other closely held entities “significantly” more burdensome, said Steve Ganis of Mintz, an expert in anti-money laundering regulation. “FinCEN’s new regime will make things much more complicated for start-ups, where control and ownership are highly fluid,” he said. Public companies and many larger businesses would be exempt because they already face stricter scrutiny.


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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Flipkart, the Indian e-commerce company owned by Walmart, is reportedly planning to go public through an I.P.O. this year. (Bloomberg)
  • Grab, the Singaporean tech giant, is near a deal to merge with a SPAC backed by Altimeter Capital at a $35 billion valuation. It would be the biggest-ever blank check deal. (FT)
  • Fox sued the owner of FanDuel over the price of its option to buy a stake in the sports betting service. (CNBC)

Politics and policy


  • State and local governments eased hundreds of regulations during the pandemic. Companies want some of those rules gone forever. (WSJ)

Tech


  • Coinbase, whose direct listing is set for next week, said it collected more revenue in the first quarter this year than in all of 2020. (CNBC)
  • The audio chat start-up Clubhouse is said to be raising funds at a $4 billion valuation. (Bloomberg)
  • The S.E.C. accused an actor of running a $690 million Ponzi scheme built around false claims of deals with Netflix and HBO. (Bloomberg)

Best of the rest




 

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Global Market Comments
April 6, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:(THE IRS LETTER YOU SHOULD DREAD),
(PANW), (CSCO), (FEYE),
(CYBR), (CHKP), (HACK), (SNE)
(FB), (AAPL), (NFLX), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (TSLA), (VIX)
(TESTIMONIAL)
mti-pos-65.jpg



The IRS Letter You Should DreadI knew the letter from the IRS sitting in my mailbox was bad news just from the color of the paper.

It was not light green, the color of a refund check from the United States Treasury. Instead, it was white, warning that it contained some sort of demand, audit notice, or threatened legal action.

In fact, it was far worse than that.

In the most stilted, bureaucratic language possible, I was informed that my $100,000 tax refund for 2019 had been already been paid out to someone else.

Another party using my name and social security number, but a different address, had already filed a 2019 return for me.

In order to get my money back, I would have to file a new return and include hard copies of every single piece of supporting documentation. It was in effect a full paper audit. Then, I would have to wait 60 days.

This was three months ago.

I informed my accountant immediately. I heard him shout across the room to his partner, “Hey Joe, I’ve got another one.”

He told me that half of his clients had had their refund checks stolen this year, and as a result, the IRS was now demanding automatic audits on all refund requests of $10,000 or more.

It gets worse. Budget cuts at the despised government agency mean that huge delays are occurring in almost all interactions. Even routine requests can sit on a bureaucrat’s desk for two years. The number of standard audits has fallen substantially.

Of the more than 245 million tax returns the IRS processed in 2017, only 1 in 160 individual returns -- 0.6 percent -- were audited. That marks a sixth consecutive annual decline in audits and amounts to the lowest level in 15 years. About 934,000 returns were audited in 2017, the lowest number since 2003, according to agency data.


The ones that take place are just a quick pass over, often conducted by mail, rather than the in-person, full proctologic examinations of the past.

Furthermore, the government didn’t have the money to pay for the latest upgrade of QuickBooks Pro.

This means I was unable to use the online accounting service’s spreadsheets during audits when the taxpayer’s accountant has upgraded, greatly increasing the time required for each audit while decreasing its effectiveness.

As a result, QuickBooks is seeing the fastest and most widespread adoption of its latest software version in history.

You can’t make this stuff up.

I asked my accountant how long it would really take for me to collect my 2018 refund. “Better count on a year,” he said.

Then the news flash came out that the hacker has stolen the tax returns of 100,000 individuals, including their personal information. I was clearly one of those victims.

Not only did the crooks discover my name and social security number, they also knew that my high school team name was the “Apaches,” my first car was a “Volkswagen,” and that I was married in “Tokyo.”

I bet they know my inside leg measurement as well (I’m not telling!).

It all reminds me that it is once again time to revisit Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and FireEye (FEYE). I have been recommending these two cybersecurity names for the past three years, issuing Trade Alerts on each opportunistic dip.

The near-destruction of Sony (SNE) by North Korean hackers has certainly put the fear of God into corporate America.

Apparently, they have no sense of humor whatsoever north of the 38th parallel.

I saw The Interview the other day on a plane, the film making fun of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un that so pissed them off, and it totally sucked.

As a result, there is a generational upgrade in cybersecurity underway, with many potential targets boosting spending by multiples.

It’s not often that I get a stock recommendation from an army general. That is exactly what happened the other day when I was speaking to a three-star about the long-term implications of the Iran peace deal.

He argued persuasively that the world will probably never again see large-scale armies fielded by major industrial nations. Wars of the future will be fought online, as they have been silently and invisibly over the past 15 years.

All of those trillions of dollars spent on big-ticket, heavy metal weapons systems are pure pork designed by politicians to buy voters in marginal swing states.

The money would be far better spent where it is most needed, on the cyber warfare front. Needless to say, my friend shall remain anonymous.

The problem is that when wars become cheaper, you fight more of them, as is the case with online combat. Cyberwars are now happening every day, all the time, 24/7, and everywhere.

You probably don’t know this, but during the Bush administration, the Chinese military downloaded the entire contents of the Pentagon’s mainframe computers at least seven times.

This was a neat trick because these computers were in stand-alone, siloed, electromagnetically shielded facilities not connected to the Internet in any way.

In the process, they obtained the designs of all of our most advanced weapons systems, including our best nukes. What have they done with this top-secret information?

Absolutely nothing.

Like many in senior levels of the US military, the Chinese have concluded that nuclear weapons are a useless waste of valuable resources.

Far better value for money is more hackers, coders, and servers, which the Chinese have pursued with a vengeance.

You have seen this in the substantial tightening up of the Chinese Internet through the deployment of the Great Firewall, which blocks local access to most foreign websites.

Some Mad Hedge Fund Trader subscribers in the Middle Kingdom have told me they can no longer access their US-based online brokerage accounts, which are blocked by mainland “porn” filters.

“Porn” is defined as anything the Chinese government doesn’t agree with.

Try sending an email to someone in the Middle Kingdom with a Gmail address. It is almost impossible. This is why Google (GOOG) closed its offices five years ago.

As a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff recently told me, “The greatest threat to national defense is wasting money on national defense.”

Although my brass-hatted friend didn’t mention the company by name, the implication is that I need to go out and buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW) right now.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is an American network security company based in Santa Clara, California, just across the water from my Bay area office.

The company’s core products are advanced firewalls designed to provide network security, visibility, and granular control of network activity based on application, user, and content identification.

Palo Alto Networks competes in the unified threat management and network security industry against Cisco (CSCO), FireEye (FEYE), Fortinet (FTNT), Check Point (CHKP), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Cyberoam, among others.

The really interesting thing about this industry is that there are no losers.

That’s because companies are taking a layered approach to cybersecurity, parceling out contracts to many of the leading firms at once, looking to hedge their bets.

To say that top management has no idea what these products really do would be a huge understatement. Therefore, they buy all of them.

This makes a basket approach to the industry more feasible than usual.

You can do this by buying the $070 million capitalized PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK), which boasts Cyberark Software (CYBR), Infoblox (BLOX), and Fireye (FEYE) as its three largest positions. (HACK) has been a hedge fund favorite since the Sony attack.

For more information about (HACK), please click here.

As for my tax refund, I am still waiting.


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hack-apr6.png
John-Thomas5-e1410989501597.jpg

 

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Huge..mind blowing trade by volume.

Prosus sells 2% of Tencent for $14.7 billion in world's largest block trade






By Scott Murdoch, Toby Sterling
3 MIN READ





(Reuters) -Holland-based technology investor Prosus NV has sold 2% of Tencent Holdings Ltd 0700.HK for $14.7 billion, the Chinese gaming and social media giant said on Thursday, in the world's largest-ever block trade.







FILE PHOTO: A Tencent logo is seen at its booth at the 2020 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) in Beijing, China September 4, 2020. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
Tencent, in a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing, said Prosus sold 191.89 million shares for HK$114.1 billion ($14.67 billion), reducing its stake to 28.9%.
That works out as HK$595 per share, confirming Reuters’ earlier report in which sources said Prosus sold the stock at the top of an indicative range of HK$575 to $HK595.
The price was a 5.5% discount to Tencent’s Wednesday close of $HK629.50. The stock, which is up 10% so far this year, opened down 2.5% in Hong Kong following the news on Thursday.
Prosus, majority controlled by Naspers Ltd, did not respond to a request for comment on the pricing.


The block trade - or the usually private, single trade of a large amount of securities - surpassed the previous record set in 2018 when Naspers also sold 2% of Tencent for $9.8 billion, Refinitiv data showed.
“The proceeds of the sale will increase our financial flexibility, enabling us to invest in the significant growth potential we see across the group, as well as in our own stock,” Prosus Chief Executive Bob van Dijk said in a statement.
Prosus also invests in online food delivery platforms, classified marketplaces and digital payments businesses.
For the half-year ended Sept. 30, it reported a 29% increase in core earnings at $2.2 billion, as proceeds from its Tencent stake offset losses at other online interests.


“We expect the news to viewed cautiously until there is more clarity on how the funds will be redeployed,” analysts at Renaissance Capital said in a client note.
The sale is unlikely to lead to any short-term reduction in the gap between the market value of Prosus at 160 billion euros ($189.92 billion) and that of its Tencent stake at 200 billion euros as of Wednesday, the analysts said.
Citigroup Inc , Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc were joint global coordinators for the sale.
($1 = 0.8425 euros)
($1 = 7.7849 Hong Kong dollars)
Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Hong Kong, Toby Sterling in Amsterdam and Abhinav Ramnarayan in London; Editing by Jane Merriman and Christopher Cushing

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.




 

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Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


merlin_186093396_9471d168-2246-4079-8380-fc7c68846161-articleLarge.jpg
“Changes are certain,” President Biden said of his tax plan, but “inaction is not an option.”Amr Alfiky/The New York Times


[h=2]Let the haggling begin[/h]

The Biden administration has unveiled its corporate tax overhaul, intended to raise $2.5 trillion over 15 years to pay for an infrastructure program. “Debate is welcome. Compromise is inevitable. Changes are certain,” President Biden said, but he stressed that “inaction is not an option.”

“America’s corporate tax system has long been broken,” the Treasury secretary Janet Yellen wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed coinciding with the plan’s release. In addition to raising the headline corporate tax rate, the administration’s proposal takes aim at companies that shift profits abroad, especially to low-tax havens like Bermuda or Ireland. Some of the changes could be enacted by regulation, but things like raising the corporate tax rate will need the approval of Congress.

What’s in the plan? Here are the main provisions:


  • Raise the corporate tax rate to 28 percent. The increase from 21 percent would put the U.S. more in line with other big countries and, the administration says, lift corporate tax receipts that have fallen to their lowest levels as a share of the economy since World War II.

08db-taxes-articleLarge.png


  • Ensure big companies pay at least 15 percent in taxes. A minimum tax on book income for companies with annual profits of $2 billion or more would mean firms that use deductions, exemptions and other methods to reduce their liability wouldn’t be able to go lower than a certain level. If this had been in place in recent years, 45 companies would have faced the tax.
  • Strengthen the global minimum tax to end profit shifting. This would double the rate on foreign intangible assets introduced by the Trump administration in 2017. The Biden administration also says it will push for global agreement on common rates, to discourage companies from shopping around for tax jurisdictions. Finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations said yesterday that they hoped to agree on a global minimum tax rate by midyear, but previous efforts have faltered when it came to nailing down the details.


  • Punish companies that headquarter in low-tax countries. A provision in the plan would target “inversions,” where American companies merge with a foreign entity in order to move headquarters to a low-tax country.
  • Replace fossil-fuel tax subsidies with clean-energy incentives.Previous attempts to eliminate subsidies on oil and gas met with stiff industry and congressional opposition.
  • Beef up the I.R.S. The agency’s enforcement budget has fallen by 25 percent over the past decade, and the proposal would bolster the budget for experts in complex corporate litigation.

What effect would it have? A Wharton School budget model concluded that the corporate tax rate increase would “not meaningfully affect the normal return on investment,” but when combined with the proposed minimum tax on book income, business investment would fall somewhat. All told, by 2050 the tax provisions would reduce government debt by more than 11 percent from the current baseline, but also reduce G.D.P. by 0.5 percent over that period.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Business groups aren’t happy about it. The Chamber of Commerce said the plan would “hurt American businesses and cost American jobs.” The Business Roundtable said it “threatens to subject the U.S. to a major competitive disadvantage.” Republican lawmakers have also argued that it’s bad for business, but the White House was quick to note that the former Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn, a key player in the 2017 tax cut, said last June that “I’m actually OK at 28 percent.”


  • “I think there could be bipartisan interest in about half of what the president proposed on the spending side, but of course the corporate tax increases would be a non-starter,” Rohit Kumar, the head of PwC’s Washington tax policy group and a former aide to Senator Mitch McConnell, told DealBook. He’s not convinced there’s even enough support among Democrats for tax increases.

For more on this, see our sister newsletter, The Morning: “Corporate Taxes Are Wealth Taxes

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

The counting of votes in the Amazon union drive begins soon. The union seeking to represent workers at a warehouse in Alabama said that 3,215 ballots were cast, representing 55 percent of eligible workers. The hand count of the ballots will begin either later today or tomorrow.

Britain curbs the use of AstraZeneca’s vaccine for people under 30. The decision came as regulators increasingly suspect a link between the shot and rare blood clots. While Britain has enough vaccines from other makers to avoid a slowdown in its inoculation efforts, the concerns may dent vaccination efforts in developing countries.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Senator Mitch McConnell walks back his comments on companies and politics, sort of. The minority leader conceded that his criticism of companies for speaking out against voting restrictions was not spoken “artfully.”(Democrats noted that Republicans have benefited from corporate donations.) “They are certainly entitled to be involved in politics,” Mr. McConnell said.

Tencent’s biggest shareholder sells a slice of its holdings for $14.7 billion.Prosus, the Europe-based tech investor, sold 2 percent of its stake in the Chinese tech giant in the biggest-ever block trade (breaking its own record). Prosus still owns a 29 percent stake in the company.

The N.R.A.’s chief concedes that he hid the group’s Chapter 11 plans.Wayne LaPierre said at a bankruptcy court hearing that he hadn’t told top executives or his board of the arrangement. He is accused of having the gun-rights group file for Chapter 11 to stymie an investigation by New York State’s attorney general.


[h=2]Acres of empty desks[/h]

Many parts of the economy have held up during the pandemic — but corporate real estate isn’t one of them. Landlords and cities are worried that remote working will irreversibly sap demand for office space, The Times’s Peter Eavis and Matthew Haag report.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

The numbers are grim for landlords. The national office vacancy rate in city centers has hit 16.4 percent, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a decade-long high. In Manhattan alone, over 17 percent of all office space is available, the most in over 30 years. And rents on existing space could also face pressure from new buildings coming online, representing 124 million square feet.

Some are staying hopeful. Landlords like Boston Properties and SL Green haven’t suffered big financial losses from the pandemic, thanks to many tenants being locked into long leases. They’re also betting many companies want their workers to meet in person to better collaborate and train younger employees.

The final damage won’t be known for some time. Companies are still trying to figure out their real estate needs, based on their work policies: While Amazon expects a return to an “office-centric culture,” JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said that the bank may need only 60 seats for every 100 employees after the pandemic.


  • “We are just going to be bleeding lower for the next three to four years to find out what the new level of tenant demand is,” Jonathan Litt, the chief investment officer of Land & Buildings, told The Times.


[h=2]“Even though I’m sort of a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin maximalist person, I do wonder whether at this point Bitcoin should also be thought in part of as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.”[/h]

— Peter Thiel, the tech investor, on how cryptocurrency threatens the U.S. dollar. “China wants to do things to weaken it, so China’s long Bitcoin,” he added.


[h=2]Doing vaccine passports right[/h]

New York recently became the first U.S. state to offer Covid-19 “vaccine passports,” while the governors of Florida and Texas banned them. Airlines, universities, event venues and other businesses are also testing various methods of vaccine verification. The starkly different approaches reflect a wider national and global debate on proof of health in the pandemic era.

“There are a lot of ways it could be done badly,” Jay Stanley of the American Civil Liberties Union told DealBook, but he suggested a “narrow path” to a certification system that could work. The ideal system would be paper-based with a digital supplement, Mr. Stanley argues, so that people who lack access to technology aren’t disadvantaged. Encrypted data would be stored on a decentralized network, protected with a public key for vaccine providers and private keys for users to ensure privacy. Fairness also demands a standardized approach, rather than the current variety of systems, which could result in “a mess for civil liberties, equity and privacy,” he said.

The Biden administration has said it won’t mandate vaccine passports, a point it reiterated this week, but it is working on standards the private sector can adopt. New York partnered with IBM on the state’s opt-in Excelsior Pass, which allows access to restricted activities and venues.

The certificates can raise a slew of social and legal issues, depending on who is asking for proof of vaccination and why, according to Stanford law professor David Studdert. Government mandates trigger more concerns than opt-in programs, he noted, and companies will have different considerations if they seek certification from customers or workers. Given all the variations, he said, “within reason” the market should decide what works, and officials should avoid both mandates and bans: “Different communities and employers have a different tolerance for risk.”

More on vaccine passports:




Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • A top S.E.C. official warned of “significant and yet undiscovered issues” with SPACs, the latest words of caution from the regulator about blank-check funds. (WSJ)
  • Twitter is said to have held talks to buy Clubhouse for $4 billion, though negotiations aren’t currently active. (Bloomberg)
  • Shares in Deliveroo rose after retail investors were allowed to start trading in the food delivery service. (CNBC)

Politics and policy


  • China is offering tax breaks and other perks to financiers in Hong Kong to keep them from leaving the territory. (NYT)
  • A federal official warned last June that Emergent BioSolutions, the company behind the Johnson & Johnson vaccine mix-up, lacked trained staff and had problems with quality control. (NYT)

Tech


  • Uber and Lyft are “throwing money” at drivers to bring them back to work. (FT)
  • Within weeks, Apple will roll out new privacy notifications for apps, which companies like Facebook have argued would harm their businesses. (Reuters)
  • “No publicly traded company is a family. I fell for the fantasy that it could be.” (NYT Op-Ed)

Best of the rest


  • How the pandemic pummeled the world’s most famous shopping streets. (Quartz)
  • Former employees of Marcus, the consumer lender that is key to Goldman Sachs’s future, reportedly say they were burned out by an ambitious product launch schedule. (Insider)
  • All about muons, the subatomic particles that seem to disobey the known laws of physics. (NYT)


 

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Global Market Comments
April 8, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS, OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(BAC)

mti-pos-62.jpg



A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

I know all of this may sound confusing at first. But once you get the hang of it, this is the greatest way to make money since sliced bread.I still have a record five positions left in my model trading portfolio, they are all deep in-the-money, and about to expire in six trading days. That opens up a set of risks unique to these positions.

I call it the “Screw up risk.”

As long as the markets maintain current levels, ALL of these positions will expire at their maximum profit values.

They include:

2X (TSLA) 4/$450-$500 call spread
20.00%
2X (TLT) 4/$142-$145 put spread
20.00%
(TLT) 4/$127-$130 call spread
-10.00%

With the April 16 options expirations upon us, there is a heightened probability that your short position in the options gets called away.

If it happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.

Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.

The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.

You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.

Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away.

I’ll use the example of the Tesla (TSLA) call spread.

For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point the day before the April 16 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $44.00 on March 19 is now worth $50.00, giving you a near-instant profit of 13.63%!

In the case of the Tesla (TSLA) April $450-%500 in-the-money vertical Bull Call spread all have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (Tesla) April 16 $450 calls to close out your short position in the (Tesla) April 16 $500 calls.”

This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same name and the same expiration date, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.

Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one options contract is exercisable into 100 shares.

To say it another way, you bought Tesla at $450 and sold it at $500, paid $44.00 for the right to do so, so your profit is $6.00, or ($6.00 X 100 shares X 2 contracts) = $1,200. Not bad for a 20-day limited risk play.

Sounds like a good trade to me.

Short positions usually only get called away for dividend-paying stocks or interest-paying ETFs like the (TLT). There are strategies out here that try to capture dividends the day before they are payable. Exercising an option is one way to do that.

Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.

A call owner may need to buy a long (TSLA) position after the close, and exercising his long (TSLA) $500 call is the only way to execute it.

Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.

There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.

Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.

And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.

And here’s another possible outcome in this process.

Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it.

This generates tons of commissions for the broker but is a terrible thing for the trader to do from a risk point of view, such as generating a loss by the time everything is closed and netted out.

There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.

Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.

Brokers have so many ways to steal money legally that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.

This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.

Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.

If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.

Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.

If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.


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[h=2]Calling All Options![/h]​


Quote of the Day“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau,” said economist Irving Fisher….just before the 1929 stock market crash.

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April 9, 2021

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Ms. Kardashian West said she hoped to build Skims into a “multigenerational brand that will be around for a very long time.”Greg Swales for The New York Times


[h=2]A new clothing unicorn takes shape[/h]

Pandemic lockdowns that consigned form-fitting clothing to the back of many closets would seem disastrous to Skims, the start-up that made its name with shapewear. But the brand has helped make Kim Kardashian West, its co-founder, a billionaire, DealBook’s Michael de la Merced reports.

Skims has raised $154 million at a $1.6 billion valuation, Michael is the first to report. The round was led by Thrive Capital, the venture firm that has backed the likes of Warby Parker and Glossier, and it included the existing investor Imaginary Ventures.

The deal cements Ms. Kardashian West’s status as a billionaire, after Forbes anointed her as such this week, based on a far lower valuation for Skims. She will remain the single biggest shareholder after the fundraising round, and with her business partner, Jens Grede, will control a majority stake.

But how will shapewear fare after the pandemic? Skims is betting on renewed interest in going-out clothing, with Mr. Grede expecting a “rebalancing” of sales across the company’s categories (read: an uptick in body-hugging fashions). A well-timed introduction of loungewear helped Skims offset the 30 percent drop in shapewear across the industry last year, according to NPD.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


  • Skims has defined itself by aiming for a younger market and emphasizing inclusivity, offering nine sizes and as many skin-tone shades. It reported $145 million in sales last year, and has sold more than four million units since its founding in late 2019.

Ms. Kardashian West isn’t ruling out a sale down the road, so long as she still has a big role in operations. “I think I’m open to the conversation, for sure,” she said. But “I would never want to give up my process. I would hope that whoever we partner with in a sale one day would believe in that, too.”

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

The union push at Amazon appears to be faltering. With about half of the ballots counted in a unionization vote at an Alabama warehouse, the “no” votes had a more than 2-to-1 advantage, putting Amazon on the cusp of defeating the most serious organized-labor threat in the company’s history. Counting resumes today.

More banks announce policies and perks to help junior workers. As the industry grapples with burnout in the ranks, Bank of America said it would raise pay and Barclays said junior bankers shouldn’t work on Saturdays and should take all their vacation time.

A chip shortage leads General Motors to slow production. It will reduce output or pause operations at several North American factories, and extend factory closures it announced previously until May 10. The industry is grappling with a lack of key components of modern vehicles.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Sony signs a five-year deal with Netflix. It gives the streaming giant exclusive U.S. rights to Sony’s films, but only once they leave theaters. WarnerMedia’s chief also said it would go back to releasing films in theaters first next year, instead of making them available simultaneously to stream.

Chewy’s co-founder is set to become GameStop’s chairman. Ryan Cohen’s investment in GameStop last year was one of the factors driving its torrid run as the “meme stock” of choice. Mr. Cohen and several others with connections to the online pet retailer are expected to be elected to GameStop’s board in June, pledging to turn GameStop retailer into the “Chewy of gaming.”


[h=2]The S.E.C. says ‘it may be time to revisit’ the rules on SPACs[/h]

John Coates, the acting director of the corporate finance division at the S.E.C., issued a lengthy statement yesterday about how securities laws apply to blank-check firms. In particular, he is interested in a crucial (and controversial) difference between SPACs and traditional I.P.O.s: blank-check firms are allowed to publish often-rosy financial forecasts when merging with an acquisition target, while companies going public in an I.P.O. are not.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

“With the unprecedented surge has come unprecedented scrutiny,” Mr. Coates wrote of the recent boom in blank-check deals. Investors raise money for SPACs via an I.P.O., and those funds are used to merge with an unspecified company in the future, thereby taking it public. Because the so-called “de-SPAC” deal is technically a merger, it’s given the same “safe harbor” legal protections for its financial forecasts as a typical M.&A. deal. With traditional I.P.O.s, companies can’t issue such projections to prospective investors, because regulators consider it too risky for firms as yet untested by the public markets.

The S.E.C. thinks financial forecasts for SPACs might be a problem. They can be “untested, speculative, misleading or even fraudulent,” Mr. Coates wrote. At the end of his statement, he suggested a major rethink of how the “full panoply” of securities laws apply to SPACs, which could upend the blank-check business model:

If we do not treat the de-SPAC transaction as the “real I.P.O.,” our attention may be focused on the wrong place, and potentially problematic forward-looking information may be disseminated without appropriate safeguards.

The letter serves as a warning. Unless the S.E.C. issues new rules (as it did for penny stocks) or Congress passes legislation, SPAC projections will continue. But this strongly worded statement could moderate or even mute them. “The S.E.C has now put them on notice,” Lynn Turner, a former chief accountant of the agency, said.


[h=2]A new twist in Leon Black’s departure from Apollo[/h]

Leon Black’s announcement that he was stepping down from Apollo sooner than expected came just days after directors learned of sexual harassment allegations against him, The New York Post reports. Mr. Black denied the claims, which the woman, Guzel Ganieva, tweeted about in mid-March.

Mr. Black told The Post the two had a consensual affair, which was not the cause of his departure. “I foolishly had a consensual affair with Ms. Ganieva that ended more than seven years ago,” he said. “Any allegation of harassment or any other inappropriate behavior towards her is completely fabricated.” He said he believes he is being extorted, having made payments to her to keep the relationship a secret.

Apollo has shaken up its board after the fallout from Mr. Black’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein. After investigating Mr. Black’s financial relationship with Mr. Epstein, Apollo said Mr. Black would step back from the company and announced a number of corporate governance changes.


[h=2]In the papers[/h]

Some of the academic research that caught our eye this week, summarized in one sentence:




[h=2]Approaching the endgame in a big battery battle[/h]

Sunday is the official deadline for Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, to decide whether to reverse an International Trade Commission ruling in a trade secrets dispute between two South Korean electric vehicle battery manufacturers. Both companies — LG Chem and SK Innovation — are building plants in the U.S., and the ruling threatens SK with a ban on supplying batteries in the country, putting its facility under construction in Georgia at risk.

Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia has been working “intensely” on getting the companies to negotiate a settlement, his spokesperson told DealBook, suggesting that the complex saga could continue past the weekend. Mr. Ossoff has been stressing the urgency of saving SK’s plant — in terms of creating jobs and bolstering the domestic battery supply — and returned to Washington while the Senate was out of session for meetings, his spokesperson said.

The U.S.T.R. doesn’t necessarily have to announce a decision; a representative declined to comment on Ms. Tai’s plans. But people will want some guidance on the government’s thinking, given the high profile of the case. Last week, in a separate I.T.C. case between LG and SK over battery patents, a judge ruled against LG. SK says this recent win supports its call for a veto in the other case.


09db-minebook-articleLarge.png
Doubleday

[h=2]Weekend reading: What’s mine is yours?[/h]

Anyone in business thinks a lot about ownership — who gets what, why and whether it’s worth what’s being paid. But few realize how deeply these concepts dictate the way we navigate time, space, nature and relationships, say the law professors Michael Heller and James Salzman. Not even they fully understood the extent of our possession obsession until they wrote their new book, “Mine! How the Hidden Rules of Ownership Control Our Lives.”

In the beginning, there was property. The biblical account of Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden, seen through the professors’ prism, is about real estate. A landowner with a tree asked humans to avoid its fruits and exercised his right to exclude them when they disobeyed. It was all God’s property — the land, the tree, the fruit. Possession and exclusion have traditionally been the primary privileges of ownership.

“In the 21st century, property has become dematerialized,” Mr. Heller told DealBook. The digital realm employs traditional concepts of property but offers less to possess. For example, Amazon can technically delete e-books from Kindle readers, but no physical bookseller would dream of reserving the right to enter your house, take a book from the shelf and keep the money you paid for it. The NFT craze takes the abstraction even further, he said, creating a new kind of property with no typical right of possession or exclusion, just “a stream of ones and zeros” on a blockchain.

“The world looks different if you start focusing on ownership,” Mr. Salzman explained. He now notices a constant flow of negotiations and conflicts, spoken and silent, all around him. Why, he wonders, does having a thing first or holding it in a given moment validate claims to title in some contexts but not others, while the concept of ownership itself seems universal? “Once you’ve seen it, you can’t unsee it,” Mr. Heller said.


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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Soho House has filed for an I.P.O. in New York. (Sky News)
  • Credit Suisse has been calling hedge-fund clients to tighten margin requirements following the Archegos blowup. (Bloomberg)

Politics and policy


  • President Biden outlined the steps he would take on gun control without going through Congress, including a crackdown on “ghost guns.” (NYT)
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis filed a lawsuit demanding that cruises immediately be allowed to resume from the U.S. (WSJ)

Tech


  • A new lawsuit alleges Facebook violated consumer protection laws by misleading the public about efforts to combat anti-Muslim content. (Protocol)
  • The U.K.’s competition watchdog is taking a more high-profile role in challenging Big Tech. (CNBC)

Best of the rest


  • Sean “Diddy” Combs called out corporations for spending few ad dollars in Black-owned media. (Revolt)
  • Online scammers are turning their attention to selling fake vaccine cards. (NYT)
  • What’s the most complex Microsoft Excel formula you’ve ever written? Check out these monstrosities. (@msexcel)


 

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LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Welcome to Wall Street Brunch, our preview of stock market events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. You can also catch this article a day early by subscribing to the Stocks to Watch account for Saturday morning delivery.
Outlook
Economic reports in the week ahead​
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Shutterstock​
The earnings season starts off with major banks reporting next week along with PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and Delta Air Lines. Analysts expect profits for the first quarter to be up 24.2%, led by huge gains in the consumer discretionary sector against the pandemic comparable a year ago. Last quarter, about 80% of companies beat earnings estimates in Q4, but only 42% saw a share price increase on earnings day. The week ahead will be busy on the economic front as well, with the Fed's Beige Book, the Empire State Manufacturing Index report, industrial production data and the retail sales report all due in. Meanwhile, the IPO market heats up with self-driving truck startup TuSimple (TSP) and digital banking platform Alkami Technology (ALKT) both expected to start trading. In the crypto world, all eyes will be watching closely how the direct listing of Coinbase (COIN) on April 14 goes down with investors.
Earnings
The financial sector will lead out the start of the Q2 earnings season kicked off next week. The list of reporting companies includes Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) on April 12; Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) on April 13; JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JMP), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Progressive (NYSE:PGR), Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) on April 14; UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), PepsiCo (PEP), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) on April 15 and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), PNC (NYSE:PNC), BNY Mellon (NYSE:BNY) and Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY) on April 16.​
IPOs
Alkami Technology (ALKT), AppLovin (APP), TuSimple (TSP) and Karat Packaging (KRT) are expected to start trading next week. Quiet periods expire on Duckhorn Portfolio (NYSE:NAPA), Olo (NYSE:OLO), Sun Country Airlines (NASDAQ:SNCY), Tuya (NYSE:TUYA), Vine Energy (NYSE:VEI), Connect BioPharm (NASDAQ:CNTB) and Finch Therapeutics (NASDAQ:FNCH) next week. Sun Country may be the most interesting of the bunch to watch. The airline stock trades more than 50% over its IPO pricing level, but industry booking trends have started to heat up.​
Dividends
Projected dividend increases (quarterly): The list of companies expected to increase their dividend payouts includes Costco (NASDAQ:COST) to $0.75 from $0.70, AptarGroup (NYSE:ATR) to $0.38 from $0.36, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) to $1.06 from $1.01, Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:PH) to $0.91 from $0.88, Healthcare Services Group (NASDAQ:HCSG) to $0.2075 from $0.20625.​
M&A
The tender offer on the Michaels (NASDAQ:MIK) buyout by Apollo Global Management expires on April 12. Shareholders with Inphi (NASDAQ:IPHI) and Marvell Technologies (NASDAQ:MRVL) are scheduled to vote on April 15 on their proposed merger. Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) hosts a special meeting on April 16 to vote on the proposed merger with Aphria (APHA) on April 16.​
Events
Coinbase (COINB) is expected to start trading on April 14. Ahead of the direct listing, the company reported Q1 revenue of about $1.8B vs. $191M a year ago. Coinbase also said it has 56M verified users. Trading on the private market has valued Coinbase at about $68B or $100B after factoring in a fully-diluted share count. D.A. Davidson is already on the books with a price target on Coinbase of $440.

Major events next week include Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) GTC21 Conference and investor day event on April 12. Bank of America sees potential upside for Nvidia if it provides updates on Arm servers. Also on April 12, Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG) holds a virtual Investor Day event. KKR (NYSE:KKR) holds a virtual investor day on April 13 and Howard Hughes (NYSE:HHC) has its annual investor day scheduled for April 14. Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV) and REV Group (NYSE:REVG) will be in the spotlight on April 15 with investor events.

Data reports due out during the week include updates from Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) on machine sales and Boeing (NYSE:BA) on deliveries. Broker assets under management reports also expected in from Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Invesco (NYSE:IVZ). T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW), Franklin Resources and others. Preliminary North America printing & writing statistics for March from the Pulp & Paper Products Council is also expected out next week in a development of interest to Domtar (NYSE:UFS) and International Paper (NYSE:IP).

Conferences rundown: Notable conferences running during the week include the Needham Healthcare Conference, the GPU Technology Conference, the Denver World Gold Forum and the Canaccord Genuity Horizons in Oncology Virtual Conference.
Go Deeper: Check out Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch
Barron's mentions
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) gets the once over by the publication this week. "Even if Bitcoin doesn’t take off as a transaction currency, it could gain appeal as an alternative asset," notes Daren Fonda in something of a beginners guide to the cryptocurrency. By JPMorgan's reckoning, Bitcoin is valued at $146,000 if the digital gold is valued in relation to the total physical gold held by the private sector. There is a warning this week on cruise line stocks Carnival (NYSE:CCL), Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) due to the necessary debt and equity raises to ride out the pandemic. "They will cut into investor returns because of higher interest expenses and a sharp increase in shares outstanding," notes the publication.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, The Verge, Renaissance Capital



 

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Bitcoin valued at 146k by JP Morgan. Interesting.
 

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I just listened to the call. Certainly worth a shot.

I have to open another account to trade OTC stocks. All my trades are inside my RRSP, which doesn't allow this.
 

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I just listened to the call. Certainly worth a shot.

I have to open another account to trade OTC stocks. All my trades are inside my RRSP, which doesn't allow this.


funds will need to settle in mine before I buy


LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Top News
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Shutterstock​
Shares of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) are rising in China trading after the government's decision to fine the company 4% of 2019 revenue allows it to move forward. The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) said Saturday that it had determined that Alibaba had been abusing market dominance since 2015 by forbidding its merchants from using other online e-commerce platforms.

Alibaba said in a statement that it accepts the penalty and “will ensure its compliance with determination.” The $2.75B fine was the highest-ever antitrust penalty imposed by China. But investors are bidding the stock higher, with the fine not material to the company's finances and the cloud of regulatory action removed.

Shares are up 8% in China. “Despite the record fine amount, we think this should lift a major overhang on BABA and shift the market’s focus back to fundamentals,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a note on Sunday, CNBC reports. “The final ruling leans significantly towards what investors had been considering the best case outcome,” Macquarie says.

Bullish for U.S. techs? U.S. mega-cap tech companies are also facing investigations into their practices, with the Department of Justice filing an antitrust suit against Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Google in October, the FTC and state attorneys general filing against Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in December and the FTC also launching an inquiry into techs over privacy and data protection in December. Last week, DataTrek Research listed tech regulation as one of five scenarios that could be the catalyst for a bear market.

It noted that Alibaba and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) haven't really underperformed the broader Chinese market, but rather “the Chinese government’s sudden increase in tech sector regulatory scrutiny is hitting overall investor confidence.”

The relatively benign outcome for Alibaba could increase confidence for U.S. Big Tech to weather any political storm from Washington.

The mega-cap stocks enjoyed strong gains last week, led by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which rose 8%. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet each gained more than 6%.

Alibaba also notched a win as authorities declined to demand any divestiture of non-core assets, but the "all clear" may not have been sounded just yet, Seeking Alpha contributor ALT Perspective writes.

“There is no guarantee that Alibaba can make adjustments to the satisfaction of the regulators. SAMR might also find issues with the self-generated compliance reports. Nonetheless, suffice to say, the greatest heat on the company has been alleviated.” (18 comments)
Economy
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sounded a little more optimistic on U.S. economic prospects in his interview with 60 Minutes, but also cautious enough to keep a lid on any pop in Treasury yields.

The economy seems to be at an "inflection point" with "strong growth" and employment prospects starting "right now," he said.

Private forecasters are seeing between 6% and 7% GDP growth this year, with the growth in H2 being very strong.

That's not to say the Fed's key interest rate will be increased any time soon. When asked about the possibility that rates could be increased this year, Powell answered that it's "highly unlikely" such an action would be taken this year.

"It's going to take some time" for the part of the economy hurt most by the pandemic — such as restaurants, hotels, and travel — to recover completely and for all of those jobs to return, he said.

Treasury yields are lower in early trading. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 basis point to 1.65%, while the 5-year yield, more closely associated with Fed rate forecasts, is down 1 basis point to 0.86%.

Stock index futures are down slightly. European markets are down across the board, showing little enthusiasm for the reopening moves in England, which includes shops, gyms and pub gardens.

Powell also said the collapse of Archegos Capital Management raised concerns about one firm causing so much damage, but he didn’t think it raised questions about overall financial stability. “We’re determined to understand what happened and make sure that whatever happened doesn’t happen again,” he said. (69 comments)
M&A
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is in advanced talks to buy Nuance Communications (NASDAQ:NUAN), Bloomberg reports. Those talks could value the company at $56/share.

Nuance closed Friday at $45.58, implying about a 23% premium. A deal could come as soon as this week, according to the report.

Nuance uses artificial intelligence solutions to offer speech recognition and natural-language interfaces through a variety of fields, particularly medicine. It has a market capitalization of about $13B. (70 comments)
Tech
With the COVID-19 pandemic bringing previously unseen levels of streaming entertainment consumption, along with a corresponding slowdown/shutdown of content production while new entrants continued to launch their services, the question arose in some quarters whether the fat pipe of new content might finally run a bit thinner.

We may be there, Next TV suggests. "It's fair to say the content drought is here," says Kasey Moore, editor of online guide What's on Netflix.

He says the number of original series episodes and movies debuting on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is down 12% year-to-date vs. 2020. New programming additions (of any type) are down by more than half: 40 this month vs. 83 in April 2020.

And Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw notes that aside from HBO Max's (NYSE:T) release of Generation in March, its other March offerings were a recut film (Zack Snyder's Justice League), two documentaries and Godzilla vs. Kong, which was finished before the pandemic began. That's down significantly from HBO's production over the same period in 2020. Meanwhile, Hulu (NYSE:DIS) had no originals for March, and Amazon Prime Video's (NASDAQ:AMZN) biggest release was another closed-cinema unload: Coming 2 America. (57 comments)
Trending
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood tweeted an answer to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, who asked her last Monday on Twitter: "What do you think of the unusually high ratio of the S&P market cap to GDP?"

Wood, who runs the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK), along with other managed funds, looked to historical precedents and pointed to deflationary forces present today.

"'This time is different' are dangerous words in forecasting markets. Most forecasters use post World War II history as their guide,” she wrote in a multi-post answer “On that basis, never has the equity market been higher relative to GDP. In the late 1800’s, however, it seems to have been 2-3 times higher." (344 comments)
What else is happening...
Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN)/Roche's (OTCQX:RHHBY) antibody cocktail reduces risk of COVID-19 infections.
DiaSorin (OTCPK:DSRLF) agreed to acquire Luminex (NASDAQ:LMNX) for $1.8B.
Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) merger to capitalize on changing legal landscape for cannabis use in the U.S.
Millennials increased mortgage refinancing activity in February, ICE Tracker says.
Watch iRhythm (NASDAQ:IRTC) after Novitas published updated reimbursement rates.
Lilly's (NYSE:LLY) Retevmo shows antitumor activity in solid tumors.
Double dose of Spectrum Pharma's (NASDAQ:SPPI) poziotinib improves tolerability in NSCLC patients.​
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.8%. Hong Kong -1%. China -1.1%. India -3.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.7%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +0.3% to $59.51. Gold -0.4% at $1738.70. Bitcoin +1.3% to $60798.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -9 bps to 1.657%
Today's Economic Calendar

 

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Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


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Jack Ma’s Alibaba faces the biggest antitrust fine in Chinese history.Aly Song/Reuters


[h=2]Beijing tightens the screws[/h]

Over the weekend, Chinese officials fined Alibaba a record $2.8 billion over antitrust violations. It was the biggest penalty yet as the Chinese government scrutinizes Jack Ma’s business empire — and it served as a warning for the country’s other internet giants.

The fine was linked to Alibaba’s locking of merchants into its sales platform, according to the Chinese market authority, and vastly exceeds the agency’s previous largest fine, a $975 million antitrust penalty imposed on Qualcomm in 2015. A commentary published in the state-run People’s Daily minutes after the Alibaba announcement called such regulation “a kind of love and care.”



The fine will likely curb Alibaba’s ambitions. Like its American counterparts, the company argued that its sheer size and wealth of services are a net positive for consumers. But smaller rivals are now likely to find support from Beijing if they accuse Alibaba of anticompetitive practices in the future.


  • “We accept the penalty with sincerity,” Alibaba said in a statement, and executives held a call today to say the fine, worth about 4 percent of revenue, wasn’t material to the e-commerce giant’s finances.

Shareholders appeared relieved. Alibaba’s shares rose by more than 6 percent in Hong Kong trading. Beyond the fine, the company agreed to stop violating antimonopoly rules and submit compliance reports for three years. And today, the company said it would lower the fees it charges merchants and provide additional services. Alibaba’s shares are still down sharply from late last year, when the antitrust rumblings began.

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Alibaba suggested that rivals could be next. “The penalty issued today served to alert and catalyze companies like ours,” the company said in its statement. “It reflects the regulators’ thoughtful and normative expectations toward our industry’s development.” Unlike Alibaba, shares in Tencent and Baidu were down today, as other big internet businesses in China feared that they might be next.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

An effort to unionize Amazon workers fails. Workers at a warehouse in Alabama overwhelmingly voted against the proposal, crushing one of the biggest drives to form a union in Amazon’s history. The lopsided result may prompt organized labor to try different tactics in the future.

Jay Powell says the economy is at an “inflection point.” The Fed chair said on “60 Minutes” last night that the U.S. outlook had “brightened substantially”but warned that flare-ups in Covid-19 cases remain a risk. Speaking of virus risks: the South African variant may be able to evade some of the protection of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

Microsoft may be close to striking another big acquisition. It is near a deal to buy Nuance Communications, the A.I. and speech recognition software company whose tech is tied to Apple’s Siri virtual assistant, Bloomberg reports. At a potential valuation of $16 billion, a transaction would be Microsoft’s biggest since buying LinkedIn for $26 billion.

Preet Bharara is becoming a digital media executive. Vox Media agreed to buy Cafe Studios, the publisher behind “Stay Tuned With Preet,” the podcast hosted by the former Manhattan U.S. attorney. Mr. Bharara, who made his name prosecuting insider trading and terrorism cases, will join Vox as the creative director of Cafe.

Two electric vehicle battery makers settle their feud. LG Energy Solution and SK Innovation reached an agreement to end their intellectual property dispute, with SK paying LG $1.8 billion in lump-sum and royalty payments. The settlement ends a fight that threatened the Biden administration’s climate agenda, as well as a big battery factory SK is building in Georgia.


[h=2]C.E.O.s talk politics[/h]

Over the weekend, more than 100 corporate leaders held a conference call to discuss what they should do, if anything, to shape the debate around restrictive new voting laws under discussion across the U.S. Snap polls during the call suggested that most of the participants favor doing something, though what that would be isn’t yet clear.

The voting-rights debate is fraught for companies, putting them at the center of an increasingly heated partisan battle. Ken Chenault, the former AmEx chief, and Ken Frazier, the current Merck C.E.O., urged the executives on the call to publicly state their support for broader ballot access, following their work gathering 70 fellow Black leaders to sign a letter calling on companies to fight bills that restrict voting rights, like the one that recently passed in Georgia.

A new survey of Americans gives support for companies wading into politics. The data provided by Morning Consult was presented to the C.E.O.s on the call, which was convened by the Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. Here are some highlights:


  • 62 percent of “avid” baseball fans support M.L.B.’s decision to move the All-Star Game from Georgia in response to the state’s new voting restrictions. Support was lower among all adults (39 percent), but if the league was worried about the effect on its most dedicated fans, this is an important finding.
  • 57 percent of Americans think companies should cut back on donations to elected officials who are working to limit voting rights. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said that the government should ensure equitable access to voting locations.
  • More than half of Americans said they were more likely to buy from companies that promote certain social causes, including racial equality and civil rights, although support among Democrats was stronger than among Republicans on many of these issues. Among the handful of issues that would make Republicans less likely to buy from a company were support for the Black Lives Matter movement, abortion rights, stricter gun control, transgender rights and gay rights.


[h=2]“However glad we are to see a new generation’s evolving perspective on investing, our goal is not to make it easier for them to pile into and rush out of speculative meme stocks.”[/h]

— Ron Kruszewski, the C.E.O. of Stifel, in his annual letter to shareholders.


[h=2]On due diligence and flying taxis[/h]

Archer, the electric aircraft company, said earlier this month that it’s facing a federal investigation over allegations of I.P. theft. That’s not just a potential problem for Archer, which denies wrongdoing, but also for the investment bank Moelis & Company, which announced in February that a blank-check firm it was backing would acquire Archer in a deal that valued the company at $3.8 billion.

Questions arise about due diligence. Archer revealed the federal investigation on the day a rival, Wisk, sued the company and accused it of stealing trade secrets and infringing on its patents. According to Wisk’s suit, it informed Archer of its concerns last year, before Archer’s deal with the Moelis-linked SPAC, known as Atlas Crest Investment. “They had to be aware of this — so what did they make of it?” said Kevin LaCroix, a lawyer and author of D&O Diary.

Moving too quickly? I.P. theft claims are common in nascent industries like the one for electric air taxis, and Atlas may have dismissed the matter as a competitive tactic from a rival. But Atlas’s due diligence took a little over a month, according to regulatory filings. The SPAC led by Reid Hoffman took almost three times as long to run the rule over its acquisition of another rival, Joby.

What about incentives? Moelis not only backed the Atlas SPAC but also served as its financial adviser and placement agent for the additional funding alongside the merger — roles that could earn it $30 million in fees, according to filings. Moelis bankers, including the chairman Ken Moelis, own a “substantial majority” of founder shares and warrants in the SPAC, which would be worthless if a deal isn’t done.


  • There are “huge incentives” for SPAC deals to close, Mr. LaCroix said. “Does that create its own logic which kind of creates sort of a runaway freight train so that, if problems do emerge, they kind of get glossed over? That is the risk.”


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[h=2]Baseball on the blockchain[/h]

A classic American pastime — baseball-card collecting — is getting a 21st century update. The blockchain platform Worldwide Asset Exchange (WAX) and Topps, the collectibles and candy company, are launching NFTs, or nonfungible tokens, digitizing this season’s Major League Baseball trading card series.

WAX minted more than a million NFTs for 75,000 digital card packs. The series, digitizes nearly 2,000 images to be sold in packs of six or 45 cards starting next week. William Quigley, WAX’s co-founder, said he expects “millions” in direct sales and a robust secondary market. For M.L.B., the tokens essentially act as an annuity, paying the league a fraction of every resale via conditions written into their code. That is a new source of revenue that didn’t exist with old-fashioned cards.


  • Top Shots, the National Basketball Association’s NFTs, are among the most popular assets to take off in the recent crypto craze, generating nearly $150 million in sales over the past month alone, according to DappRadar.

Digital tokens solve several problems, Mr. Quigley said. With standard cards it has been difficult to establish how many cards were issued and to ensure the authenticity of a supposedly rare one. NFTs have built-in authentication and verification data, and separate ownership from possession so that owners don’t need to amass physical goods in a world with “landfills worth of junk,” he said. Mr. Quigley himself is considering giving up on buying physical art. “I’m thinking I don’t like it,” he said.

A home run in a hot market? Topps is riding high as the pandemic has driven new interest in memorabilia, especially trading cards. And NFTs are not the only hot trend Topps is betting on: the company is going public via SPAC in a deal that values it at $1.3 billion, DealBook reported last week.


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Medline Industries, a maker of medical equipment, is reportedly weighing a sale that could value it at more than $30 billion. (WSJ)
  • Didi Chuxing, the Chinese ride-hailing giant, is said to have hired Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead its forthcoming I.P.O. in the U.S. (Reuters)

Politics and policy


  • David Cameron, the former British prime minister who became a top adviser to Greensill Capital, admitted to mistakes in lobbying policymakers on behalf of the recently collapsed lender. (FT)
  • “We Asked Congress’s Freshmen to Give Up Stock Trading. Few Were Willing.” (NYT)

Tech


  • Court filings in Texas revealed that Google secretly used past bids for its digital advertising exchange to give its own ad-buying system an advantage over rivals. (WSJ)
  • More than 500 employees of Alphabet signed an open letter demanding the tech giant change rules they say unduly protect those credibly accused of harassment. (The Verge)

Best of the rest


  • Acceptance rates at elite colleges have hit a record low; Harvard accepted 3.4 percent of applications for its class of 2025. (Insider)


  • Don’t mistake a work colleague’s silent endurance for resilience. (NYT)
  • Online schools are here to stay, even after the pandemic. (NYT)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.


 

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BABA got spanked, and the stock price went up lol.
 

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