Intersting thoughts

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments March 29, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE WEEK THAT NEVER WAS), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (TSLA), (CSCO), (ORCL), (INTC)

​ The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Week that Never Was Of course, WWII historians know well the man who never was, the popular name for Operation Mincemeat.In 1943, British intelligence found a homeless man who died on the streets of London, dressed him up as a Royal Marine Major William Martin, and released his body from a submarine off the coast of Spain, a German ally. Handcuffed to his wrist was a briefcase with highly detailed plans for the allied invasion of Greece and the Balkans. The Germans shifted ten divisions to defend the region. When the allies invaded Sicily instead, it came completely out of the blue. The invading American and British forces found the island almost undefended and inadequately manned and supplied by Italian troops. The allies planned for three months to capture Sicily. Instead, they did it in a mere 38 days. Allied losses came in at a tenth of those expected, thanks to Royal Marine Major William Martin. The analogy here is that last week, we witnessed the market that never was. Stocks went down, then up. Bonds went up, then down. Even Tesla was virtually unchanged. It all ended up as a big fat zero for traders. What all of this means for us investors is a subject of heated discussion among strategists. Of course, the Cassandras are always out there arguing that this is all proof that markets are peaking and that the mother of all stock market crashes is just ahead of us. I take a different tack. I think we are well into a long-overdue “time” correction whereby stocks go sideways for weeks or months before resuming their heroic assault on new highs. The timing will be dictated by the frantic reversal of the bond market at a ten-year Treasury yield of 2.00%. Investors will rotate from the newly expensive recovery plays like banks into the newly cheap, such as technology stocks. Notice the sudden recent interest in legacy companies like Oracle (ORCL), Intel (INTC), and Cisco Systems (CSCO), which completely missed the great 2020 tech rally. All of this sets up perfectly for the barbell portfolio which I have been advocating all year. If there is a selloff, it will be by things that normal people don’t own. Those include SPACS, anything the Reddit crowd chases, stay-at-home stocks, and very high-priced tech stocks with no earnings. Much focus has been placed on the Taiwanese-owned Ever Given stuck in the Suez Canal. As a Middle Eastern war correspondent for many years, I spent endless hours debating with my compatriots over what closure of the canal would mean. What hasn’t been mentioned was that the accident was not caused by a Chinese captain, but Egyptian pilot ships are required to take on to raise revenues, and bribes, for the impoverished country. This all happened in the middle of a sandstorm where visibility is near zero. I can tell you right now that they won’t get the Ever Given off there until they start to unload containers and lift off some weight so the 200,000-ton ship can rise of its own accord. Good luck with that in the middle of the Sinai Desert. Why not just sell all the contents on Amazon and have them deliver it for free as part of their prime membership? This is a debacle that will last weeks, if not months, and will cost $9 billion a day in international trade until it’s over. In the meantime, commercial shippers have asked for protection from pirates from the US Navy as they navigate the unfamiliar water around the tip of Africa. The Mad Hedge Summit Videos are Up, from the March 9,10, and 11 confab. Listen to 27 speakers opine on the best strategies, tactics, and instruments to use in these volatile markets. The product discounts offered last week are still valid. Start, stop, and pause the videos at your leisure. Best of all, access to the videos is FREE. Access them all by clicking here, click on CURRENT SUMMIT REPLAYS in the upper right-hand corner, and then choose the speaker of your choice. Weekly Jobless Claims dive by 100,000, to 684,000, a one-year low. The decline was led by Illinois and Ohio. Labor shortages are popping up around the country in skilled areas, but bars and restaurants are still lagging severely. Huge Office Cuts are coming, with execs planning a permanent 20% cut. Better to give the money to shareholders. Downtowns across the country will change beyond all recognition. How do you turn an office into an apartment? CP Rail buys Kansas City Southern, for $25 billion, further concentrating the north American rail industry. It’s a steal because an economy entering a decade-long boom moves lots of stuff. It’s also a great North/South international trade play, which is recovering strongly with the exit of our last president. I used to ride box cars on the old Canadian Pacific back in the sixties (you can’t hitch hike where there are no cars), and occasionally the engineers would let me drive. It suddenly makes Norfolk South (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP) look very tempting. Another Tesla $3,000 Target was issued by Ark’s Cathie Wood, an early investor. Cathie’s Ark Innovation Fund ETF was up 180% last year largely on the strength of a massive Tesla (TSLA) holding. Her bear case is a low of $1,500 by 2025, nearly triple the current price. She has only one more triple to go to get to my own $10,000 forecast. Biden has $3 Trillion More to Spend on top of the just passed $1.9 trillion rescue package. It's all rocket fuel for the stock market, not so much for bonds. The money will be spent on a mix of old-line freeway and bridge repair along with new spending on decarbonizing the power grid and social measures. It will be financed by tax hikes on those earning over $400,000. Remember, Roosevelt hiked the maximum tax rate to 90% on the wealthy, where it stayed for 30 years, and Biden is old enough to remember. Daily Air Travelers top 1.5 Million, for the first time in a year. The pandemic low was 200,000 a day. It’s an indication of how anxious Americans have become to travel, and how strong the imminent economic boom will be. Intel to build two chip fabs for $20 billion in Arizona to address the current severe shortage. US construction is a positive as it helps reduce reliance on foreign supplies. Too bad it will still leave them five years behind (AMD), but it’s a major move in the right direction. It deals with everything investors wanted to hear and moves them solidly into the 10nm architecture market. Buy (INTC) on dips. New Home Sales Dive, off 18.2% in February, now that the free money train has left the station. Weather was blamed as a factor, with giant snowstorms slamming much of the country. Shortage of supply is another big issue. Some big builders are basically out of inventory and are reduced to selling floor plans with extended completion dates. US Dollar (UUP) hits a four-month high, with a major assist from rising US bond interest rates. Expect the rally to continue until ten-year yields hit 2.00%, then sell the daylights out of it. With the US money supply growing at a near exponential 30% annual rate, there’s no way the dollar strength can continue. When you increase the supply, you decrease the value, simple supply and demand. My first pick is to buy the Aussie (FXA) a call option on a global synchronized economic recovery. When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% to 120,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 120,000, here we come! It’s amazing how well patience can help your performance. My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch profit reached a super-hot 18.61% so far in March on the heels of a spectacular 13.28% profit in February. It was a go-nowhere week in the market, so I limited myself to a single trade all week, a double short in the bond market (TLT) on top of a welcome $5 rally. The position turned immediately profitable. I still have a deep in-the-money call spread Tesla (TSLA) that is profitable and expires in 14 trading days. That leaves me with 70% cash and a barrel full of dry powder. This is my fifth double-digit month in a row. My 2021 year-to-date performance soared to 42.10%. The Dow Average is up 9.9% so far in 2021. That brings my 11-year total return to 464.65%, some 2.08 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My 11-year average annualized return now stands at an unbelievable 41.30%. My trailing one-year return exploded to positively eye-popping 119.39%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives. We need to keep an eye on the number of US Corona virus cases at 30.2million and deaths topping 550,000, which you can find here. Thankfully, death rates have slowed dramatically, but Obituaries are still the largest sector in the newspaper. At this point, some 47% of the US population has achieved immunity through vaccination or catching the disease. Herd immunity is near. The coming week is a big one for jobs data. On Monday, March 29, at 9:00 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Indexfor March is released. On Tuesday, March 30, at 9:00 AM, the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index for January is published. On Wednesday, March 31 at 8:15 AM, the ADP Challenger Private Employment Report for March is out. Pending Home Sales for February are indicated at 9:00 AM. On Thursday, April 1 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are published. On Friday, April 2 at 8:30 AM we get the Nonfarm Payroll Report for March. At 2:00 PM, we learn the Baker-Hughes Rig Count. As for me, tax time is coming up and let me tell you, I have absolutely the best IRS story of all time. It comes from my late, dear friend, Al Pinder, who I sat next to for ten years at the Foreign Correspondents of Japan in Tokyo, pounding away on antiquated Royal typewriters until our shoulders were as stiff as boards. Al then was the shipping correspondent for the New York Journal of Commerce newspaper. Al was a colorful character, to say the least. In the run up to WWII, Al took an extended vacation in Japan where he toured and photographed the country’s beaches, looking for the best landing sites for the US military in case war broke out. To sneak the top-secret pictures out of the country, he bought a large steamer trunk and placed them a false bottom. Then he went to Tokyo’s red-light district in Yoshiwara, bought a dubious sex toy, an inflatable life-sized Japanese doll, and placed it on top. When the trunk was searched, the customs officials found the doll, had a good laugh and passed him on. Al’s photos were the basis of Operation Olympic, the 1945 US invasion of Japan, made unnecessary by the dropping of the atomic bomb. When the war broke out, Pinder parachuted into western China, where he acted as the liaison with Mao Zedong’s guerilla forces in Hunan province. In 1944, Al received a coded message from headquarters ordering him to intercept a top-secret airdrop from a DC3 in the middle of the night. Knowing he would be mercilessly tortured by the Japanese if caught, he set up three signal fires in a triangle in a remote part of the desert and managed to find the parachute. Dodging enemy patrols all the way, he returned to his hideout in a mountain cave and opened the package. In it was a letter from the IRS asking why he had not filed a tax return for the past three years. I told this story at Al’s wake a few years ago and everyone had a good laugh. Al went on to run CIA operations in Japan during the fifties and sixties. When he passed away, there was a frantic search for a safe deposit box by American intelligence officials containing records of all CIA payoffs to Japan’s leading conservative party. When the box was finally found, there was an enormous sigh of relief at the embassy. I still miss Al. Stay healthy. John Thomas CEO & Publisher The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Quote of the Day All Roads lead to gold right now,” said technical analyst Carter Braxton Bragg.

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor For full disclosures click here at: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM) and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM) are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C) is protected by the United States Copyright Office Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

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[CoachCB]

That sounds very positive! We've been "sideways" (or down) for the last few months. I want to get a little bit back then get a little more conservative....

 

[Bruins4Life]

He seems more bullish on TSLA than Cathie Wood.

 

[Bozzie]

Jobs data on Friday will be a big number.....

Read in Browser​ ​ LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON: ​ ​ ​ Top News Yields take hold of stocks again​ ​ ​ Shutterstock​ ​ The broader market is pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street, but Treasury yields are pressuring tech shares again. The S&P (SPX, SPY) and Dow (INDU, DIA) futures are up, but the Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX:IND) are losing ground. The 10-year Treasury yield, which ramped up yesterday, is now up another 5 basis points to 1.77%. It's now up to the highest level since last January. The selloff in bonds has come with a combination of optimism over the U.S. vaccine rollout and the possibility of an infrastructure bill providing more stimulus to the economy. Rupert Thompson, chief investment officer at wealth manager Kingswood, told the Financial Times that the “massive” scale of stimulus has caused “considerable nervousness over inflation and has been behind the recent sell-off in government bonds.” Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) are recovering, up about 1% premarket, as it looks like the U.S. banks have avoided the worst of the fallout from the Archegos collapse. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were quick off the mark to sell shares on Friday. But Wells Fargo may have more ViacomCBS shares to sell. ​ Financials Wells Fargo shopping shares​ ​ Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) may be shopping a large block of ViacomCBS (VIAC, VIACA), CNBC's David Faber said, citing people familiar. Wells Fargo executed five block trades valued at a combined $2.14B, according to a Bloomberg report. The bank was trying to sell a block of 18 million ViacomCBS Inc. shares at $48 apiece before the market opened today, the report noted. According to Bloomberg, Wells Fargo also offered block sales in Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU), Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH), Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) and iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ). (57 comments) ​ Credit Suisse may be down $4B​ ​ Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) reportedly lost between $3B and $4B due to the Archegos Capital liquidation, FT reported earlier, citing two people close to the bank. Credit Suisse earlier commented that the size of the could be "highly significant." The stock is up nearly 2% in Zurich after a 12% plunge Monday. “While at this time it is premature to quantify the exact size of the loss resulting from this exit, it could be highly significant and material to our first-quarter results, notwithstanding the positive trends announced in our trading statement earlier this month,” Credit Suisse said in a statement. (55 comments) ​ Sponsored by E*TRADE The Complete Trading Package​ ​ ​ Ready to take on the markets, or just looking for new trading opportunities? With intuitive trading platforms and specialized support, E*TRADE offers powerful, easy-to-use tools for traders looking to track the markets and seize opportunities. You’ll also enjoy $0 commissions for online US-listed stock trades, and as low as 50¢ per options contract and $1.50 per futures contract. Learn more about E*TRADE’s comprehensive trading options and start trading today. *Paid Advertisement​ Consumer Tesla snags semi order​ ​ Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has secured an order for 10 electric semi-trucks and 2 Megachargers, according to Electrek. The deal includes about $2M in support from the U.S. government. The Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee (MSRC) awarded California-based logistics company MHX Leasing funds to deploy the ten Tesla Semi class 8 trucks and two overhead electric cranes. MHX won the grant from MSRC's Zero & Near-Zero-Emission Trucking-to-Warehouse, Distribution, & Intermodal Facilities in Riverside & San Bernardino Counties grant program. That program is part of a new government incentive that aims to speed up the electric semi-truck adaption by logistics companies. Last week, the biggest development with the Tesla Semi was a report that PepsiCo is likely to take delivery of 15 electric trucks this year. (252 comments) ​ Tech IT spending looking strong​ ​ Evercore ISI's quarterly enterprise technology spending survey is pointing to an outlook that's "very strong," with 80% saying they expect to see their IT spending rise and 14% expecting it to stay the same. That's in line with some optimism shown in the November survey - but confidence is higher in these new numbers, with 81% feeling more upbeat with regard to IT spending. The survey encapsulates responses from executives at the VP-or-higher level at large companies with insight into their IT spending process - casting a wider net than just chief information officers in seeking a "bottom-up" view of the process for a better look. Digging into particulars, Evercore says 88% of respondents agree (strongly or somewhat) that COVID-19 has accelerated their shift to cloud offerings. It says that heading into the bulk of 2021, the top three IT spending priorities are: Service Desk & IT Workflow modernization; Artificial Intelligence; and Infrastructure refresh. As for who's expected most to benefit from a net increase in wallet share from vendors, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) tops out with 55%, just ahead of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) at 49%. Also doing well on the growing-wallet-share measure: IBM (NYSE:IBM) at 45%; Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM); and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) at 40%. Meanwhile, with offices looking to reopen this year, Evercore says there will be a renewed focus on hybrid/on-premise after 2020's big shift toward the public cloud. In three years, respondents expect the workload mix will be 52% private - and that's a positive, Evercore says, for Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) and IBM. The survey indicates storage spending is set to inflect higher - a positive, Evercore says, for NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) and Pure Storage (NYSE:PSTG). Servers will be an area of strength, benefiting Dell and HPE, while there's potential for a demand vacuum on the personal computer side. It also notes that within the networking space, software-defined solutions and Wi-Fi 6 should be notable areas of strength. That makes notable winners out of Cisco and HPE, the firm says. (6 comments) ​ What else is happening... T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is shutting down its TVision streaming bundle just two years after launch, replacing it with discounted deals on YouTube TV (GOOG, GOOGL) and Philo.An Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) unit last week won FDA Emergency Use Authorization for a quick-response COVID-19 test it says it intends for its own employees.The Biden administration today unveiled a goal to expand U.S. offshore wind energy in the coming decade by opening new areas to development, accelerating permits and increasing public financing for projects.AeroCentury (NYSEMKT:ACY) plummets 40% after-hours in reaction to an announcement that the company and certain of its subsidiaries have commenced a voluntary case under Chapter 11.Financial giant Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) filed paperwork Monday for an initial public offering to raise as much as $460M for its eighth SPAC, Apollo Strategic Growth Capital III (APGC.U).​ Sponsored By E*TRADE ​ ​ Monday's Key Earnings Canoo (NASDAQ:GOEV) -5.2% PM after Q4 results.​ Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +0.2%. Hong Kong +0.9%. China +0.6%. India +2.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.7%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq -0.6%. Crude -0.6% to $61.17. Gold -1% at $1697.80. Bitcoin +1.4% to $58836. Ten-year Treasury Yield 3.7 bps to 1.758% ​ Today's Economic Calendar 8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales 9:00 Fed’s Quarles Speech 9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00 FHFA House Price Index 10:00 Consumer Confidence 12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech 2:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech Companies reporting earnings today »​

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[Bozzie]

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March 31, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

“You either are for more people voting, or you want to suppress the vote,” said Ken Chenault, the former American Express C.E.O.Mike Cohen for The New York Times

[h=2]Called to account[/h]

More than 70 Black executives have signed a letter calling on companies to fight a wave of voting-rights bills similar to the one recently passed in Georgia, which they say will make it harder for Black people to vote. Similar bills are being advanced by Republicans in at least 43 states, and the signatories are demanding that companies speak up more forcefully than they did in Georgia, Andrew and David Gelles report for The Times.

The effort is led by Ken Chenault and Ken Frazier, the former chief of AmEx and the departing chief of Merck, respectively. “There is no middle ground here,” Mr. Chenault said. “You either are for more people voting, or you want to suppress the vote.” The letter did not criticize specific companies, but called on corporate America to publicly oppose new laws that would restrict the rights of Black voters, and to use their clout, money and lobbyists to sway the debate.

The signers included Roger Ferguson Jr., the chief executive of TIAA; Mellody Hobson and John Rogers Jr., the chief executives of Ariel Investments; and Ray McGuire, a former Citigroup executive who is running for mayor of New York.

Corporations were circumspect as the debate raged in Georgia. Their muted response revealed a double standard. Last year, dozens of big companies signed a pledge that stated their “clear opposition to harmful legislation aimed at restricting the access of L.G.B.T.Q. people in society.” But “when it comes to race, there’s differential treatment,” Mr. Chenault said. “That’s the reality.”

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Activists are calling for boycotts of Delta and Coca-Cola, which are based in Atlanta, for the tepid engagement in their home state. What happened in Georgia could easily spread to other states, the letter’s signers believe. “If corporate America doesn’t stand up, we’ll get these laws passed in many places in this country,” Mr. Frazier said.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Regulators scrutinize banks’ actions in the Archegos fire sale. The S.E.C. and Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority have reportedly asked for information from prime brokers involved with the stricken investment firm. A group of brokers met last week to discuss how to unwind the firm’s trading positions — only to break ranks and start selling them quickly, roiling markets.

Plans to fund President Biden’s infrastructure plan take shape. The White House will call for 15 years of higher corporate taxes to cover $2 trillion in spending that Mr. Biden plans to announce today. That includes raising the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, from the 21 percent set by President Donald Trump’s cuts in 2017.

The Supreme Court will hear arguments on compensating college athletes. At issue in the case today is whether the N.C.A.A. can put limits on education-related benefits. It comes amid a broader debate on whether student athletes can be paid.

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[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

New data show that the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine is highly effective in adolescents. The shot showed 100 percent efficacy in children aged 12 to 15, according to a new trial by the drugmakers. Depending on regulatory approvals, inoculations could begin in time for the next academic year.

A backslide in the number of Black finance executives. Anonymized government data shows that Black people held fewer top roles at U.S. financial firms in 2018 than in 2007, according to The Financial Times. That was the only minority group whose share of senior positions fell during the period.

[h=2]Deliveroo’s market debut falls flat[/h]

Shares in the British food delivery service Deliveroo tumbled as much as 30 percent in their first day of trading this morning, after the company priced its I.P.O. at the low end of expectations. It was an inauspicious debut for Britain’s biggest initial stock sale in a decade.

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[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Anticipation for Deliveroo’s I.P.O. was high, especially since the company’s decision to list in London was praised as a victory for a post-Brexit Britain. Its debut was seen as a test for European stock investors’ willingness to back a company that, like many American rivals, runs up huge losses, relies on a gig-economy model and gives its C.E.O. outsized control. British regulators have also been studying ways to make London’s stock market more attractive to keep the city competitive in finance.

It turns out that many major British investors weren’t that eager.Deliveroo’s valuation dropped as low as 5.3 billion pounds ($7.3 billion), weeks after the company hoped to be valued at as much as £9 billion. Asset managers like Legal and General said they wouldn’t invest in the I.P.O., citing concerns about the compensation of the company’s drivers and a dual-class stock structure that gives Will Shu, Deliveroo’s C.E.O., more power than other investors for three years.

Investors also generally worry that food delivery services will lose steam as pandemic lockdowns ease.

Tech investors questioned whether Europe would welcome other start-up listings. Deliveroo’s frosty reception may persuade other European tech businesses to list elsewhere, two of the company’s backers told DealBook. A potential alternative is merging with a U.S.-based SPAC, as the British used-car marketplace Cazoo and the German air-taxi maker Lilium are doing.

Cazoo’s founder, Alex Chesterman, specifically called out British investors’ risk aversion as a reason to list across the Atlantic: “U.S. investors tend to be prepared to take bigger risks on bigger outcomes,” he said.

[h=2]“They did what they thought was most efficient for themselves — make the ships big — and they didn’t pay much attention at all to the rest of the world.”[/h]

— Marc Levinson, an economist, on the risks that ever-larger container shipspose to supply chains

[h=2]How to fix SPACs[/h]

One of the biggest criticisms of blank-check funds is the misalignment of interests between the companies’ sponsors and later investors, particularly retail buyers. In his latest column, Andrew proposes a fix that takes advantage of a unique aspect of the way SPACs are run.

The key is the companies’ financial forecasts. Unlike with traditional I.P.O.s, which restrict what a company can say about its business, a company that goes public by merging with a SPAC is free to make financial forecasts. Because many of these companies are too young to have profits — or in many cases, revenues — these projections can be all that prospective investors have to go on. Companies may make promises they struggle to deliver, particularly for projections several years in the future. Virgin Galactic, which published projections out to 2023 when it merged with a SPAC in 2019, has had to revise its forecasts as its flight timetable has slipped.

Tying sponsors’ stock commitments to those projections would lock them in for longer. If a target company makes forecasts for five years ahead, restricting its SPAC’s sponsor from selling for five years would better align backers with what they are selling to the public, Andrew suggests.

Not everyone likes the idea. The billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who drew criticism for unexpectedly selling some of his stake in Virgin Galactic this month (but not his sponsor shares), argued that it would unfairly punish sponsors for the shortcomings of management. Instead, he suggested making sponsors put more of their own money into SPAC deals: “The more they invest, the more they would need to scrutinize the projections,” he said.

[h=2]Apple takes a stake in UnitedMasters[/h]

Apple is investing in UnitedMasters, a music distribution company that lets musicians bypass traditional record labels. Artists who distribute through UnitedMasters keep ownership of their master recordings and pay either a yearly fee or 10 percent of their royalties. Apple led the funding round, announced today, which DealBook hears values UnitedMasters at $350 million.

Musicians are increasingly taking ownership of their work. Taylor Swift, most famously, and Anita Baker, most recently, have publicized their fights with labels over their master recordings. Artists once needed the heft of major publishing labels — which typically demand ownership of master recordings — to build a fan base. But with social media, labels no longer play as significant a gatekeeping role. “Technology, no doubt, has transformed music for consumers,” said Steve Stoute, the founder of UnitedMasters. “Now it’s time for technology to change the economics for the artists.”

The investment sets up a partnership between UnitedMasters and Apple.As streaming services, including Apple’s, compete for subscribers, they are cutting more favorable deals with the artists who attract users to platforms. Spotify announced a project this week to detail how it pays musicians following community pressure. The deal with UnitedMasters is about “empowering creators,” Apple’s Eddie Cue said.

[h=2]Art is money[/h]

Damien Hirst, the renowned British artist, is getting into nonfungible tokens, or NFTs. With a digital asset sale called “The Currency Project,” he’s among the first major established artists to join the crypto craze. It’s a natural fit for him, because NFTs turn common things into unique and valuable assets, and money is a key theme of Mr. Hirst’s art.

“NFTs are the most exciting new thing in the creative industry,” Mr. Hirst told DealBook. “The fact that they polarize people so much, and make so many people angry, just makes me even more sure of their importance.” Mr. Hirst irked people back in 1991 with a gallery display of a 14-foot-long glass tank with a shark preserved in formaldehyde. In 2007, he sold a skull encrusted in diamonds for $100 million to an investment group he was secretly in on, thus inflating its perceived worth. And while his latest project is not quite as outrageous, it certainly “challenges the concept of value through money and art,” he said.

Ten thousand paper prints of cherry blossoms will be linked to digital tokens. The NFTs are for sale on Palm, a new platform backed by the blockchain entrepreneur Joe Lubin. The works, which have been in storage for the past five years, are born again via a kind of market that didn’t exist when the prints were first made.

From an investment standpoint, most NFTs are iffy, and may ultimately be worthless, said Megan Kaspar, the co-founder of Magnetic Capital, a blockchain incubator and investment firm. Until there is data on resales, no one knows which way things will go. Mr. Hirst’s NFTs are arguably different from many, however, because they come with the physical prints — and his history of minting money.

Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

The F.T.C. sued to block the medical diagnostics company Illumina’s $7.1 billion takeover of Grail, another sign of the U.S. government’s tougher approach to antitrust enforcement. (Reuters) Dapper Labs, the blockchain company behind the N.B.A.’s “Top Shot” nonfungible tokens, raised $305 million at a $2.6 billion valuation. (NYT)

Politics and policy

President Biden’s climate ambitions face big hurdles: carmakers that want more subsidies to fund a switch to electric vehicles and auto unions fearful of job losses. (WaPo)

Tech

A leaked document purportedly shows how Amazon handpicked employees to defend the company on Twitter against critics like Senator Bernie Sanders. (The Intercept) ****** rolled out a new service for paying online using cryptocurrencies. (Bloomberg)

Best of the rest

The latest signs that remote working is here to stay: JPMorgan Chase, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Salesforce are looking to sublease their office space. (WSJ) Tech industry workers say remote working has led to more gender and racial harassment. (NPR) Americans are increasingly souring on billionaires as the wealth gap increases during the pandemic, but they can’t stop talking about them. (Recode)

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin

Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian

Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler

Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced

Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch

Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

[Bozzie]

Post covid the image of billionaires flips. Interesting and not surprising given the wealth gap and the increase in wealth (for some) over the last year.

https://www.vox.com/recode/2021/3/3...te=1&user_id=076f35cecb9256ed49384cc9a936529b

 

[Bozzie]

I for one am Very very excited by the prospect of an Infrastructure bill....This is what this county needs beyond anything right now.

Read in Browser​ ​ LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON: ​ ​ ​ Top News Eyes on infrastructure​ ​ ​ Shutterstock​ ​ Stock index futures are mixed in early morning trading with politics in focus. Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX:IND) are up 0.1%, while Dow futures (INDU) are off 0.2% and S&P futures (SPX)are flat. Treasury yields are also little changed, with the 10-year up 1 basis point to 1.73%. President Joe Biden will travel to Pittsburgh today to unveil plans for an overhaul of infrastructure and manufacturing. Details are reportedly still being ironed out, but the plan would be another injection of stimulus into the economy. The cost is a major concern for GOP lawmakers, though, as are plans to partially pay for the plan with tax increases. ADP will report its measure of private sector employment before the bell, with economists predicting a rise of 550K in March payrolls. Shortly after the open, numbers on February pending home sales arrive, with a drop of 2.6% forecast. Cannabis stocks could be active today after the New York State Senate and Assembly Tuesday evening approved a bill that would legalize marijuana for recreational use. ​ Tech BofA seeks chip industry winners from massive infrastructure spending​ ​ With President Biden set to queue up a massive infrastructure plan (ranging to $2 trillion in cost over eight years), BofA zooms in on the semiconductor segment to highlight companies it says could be important beneficiaries as "key building blocks of the digital economy." BofA calls out four areas ripe for change in a digital infrastructure push: Semicap equipment; 5G infrastructure/broadband; Smart industrial/automation; and Clean energy/electric vehicles. Semicap equipment vendors are ideally positioned to benefit from "silicon nationalism," the BofA team writes, referring to the push to enhance domestic remanufacturing to become more self-sufficient in chips. U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity as a percentage of the total world has fallen from 37% to about 12%, it notes, but the fiscal 2021 defense reauthorization features the CHIPS for America Act as an incentive for domestic manufacturing, with billions in matches to state and local incentives for foundries, along with money for new R&D streams and equipment purchases. The recent increase in capital expenditures from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) - and its longer-term plans to rejuvenate the foundry model - is also a positive for semicap vendors, BofA says. Its top pick in the sector is Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), though other beneficiaries include KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC), Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) and Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER). Turning to 5G, the Biden administration could use funds to incentivize deployment in the U.S. in order to catch up to China, BofA says. The U.S. has been behind, but the record C-band spectrum auction combined with government support should offer a shot in the arm. Key beneficiaries in that area include Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) as the leading supplier to Samsung, Nokia and Ericsson; Analog Devices (ADI) a leader in 5G radio; Qorvo (QRVO) a leader in RF radio; and RF power amp suppliers NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) and Cree (NASDAQ:CREE). Also likely to benefit from increased broadband rollouts are Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) and MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (NASDAQ:MTSI), it says. (13 comments) ​ Amazon-backed Deliveroo tumbles in market debut​ ​ Food delivery service Deliveroo's initial public offering continues to see trouble as shares sank on their first day of trading on the London Stock Exchange. The company priced shares this morning at £3.90 ($5.36), the bottom of its expected range. That gave Deliveroo a market value of £7.59B ($10.44B). Shares slumped as much as 30% in early trading. Retail investors will not be able to buy shares until April 7. Last year, Amazon increased its stake in a move that prompted an antitrust investigation. Regulators ultimately determined that Deliveroo, before the pandemic-driven delivery boom, couldn't meet its financial commitments without the infusion. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is selling 23.3M shares. The IPO has been plagued by concerns about driver working conditions at the company and also whether Deliveroo will have to classify them as workers owed a minimum wage, as recently occurred with Uber, leading to higher costs for the company, The company is trading under the symbol "ROO" and narrowed its IPO price range. It cited volatile market conditions, but also said the price point would offer better value for long-term investors. (3 comments) ​ Sponsored By Yieldstreet Diversify Your Portfolio with Alternative Investments​ ​ ​ Generating passive income doesn’t have to be complicated. Yieldstreet lets you diversify your portfolio with investments starting as low as $1,000 allowing you to access a unique set of asset classes. You’ll also enjoy short durations and investments backed by collateral that help protect your principal. Learn more about investing in alternatives with Yieldstreet and ​start building your customized portfolio today​. ​ Covid Germany to ban AstraZeneca vaccine for those under 60​ ​ In a fresh blow to AstraZeneca's (NASDAQ:AZN) COVID-19 vaccine, Germany says it will halt its use for people under 60 starting Wednesday. The move, endorsed by regional health ministers and announced by Chancellor Angela Merkel, comes after new cases of blood clots associated with the vaccine. The clots mainly occur in those under 60. “These are findings that we cannot ignore,” Merkel said late Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. “We all know that vaccination is the most important tool against the coronavirus - that we have different vaccines at our disposal is our good fortune.” The Paul Ehrlich Institute reported that as of March 29, a total of 31 cases of blood clots have been reported out of 2.7M AstraZeneca vaccine doses administered in Germany. The vaccine was already suspended in regions of Germany yesterday. On the other hand, the U.K. declared the vaccine safe, with Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick saying the government is "100% confident" in its efficacy. Shares of AstraZeneca are down 0.3% in premarket trading. (3 comments) ​ Cannabis New York State Legislature approves recreational marijuana bill​ ​ The New York State Senate and Assembly Tuesday evening approved a bill that would legalize marijuana for recreational use. The Senate vote was 40-23 and the Assembly vote was 100-49. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Dem.) has said he will sign the legislation, the Marijuana and Taxation Act, which would take effect immediately. However, marijuana sales in stores would take 18 months to two years to start, according to State Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes. Cuomo's office has said that once fully implemented, marijuana legalization is expected to rake in $350M annually in tax revenue. (57 comments) ​ Financials Cathie Wood’s new ETF ARKX saw $295 million in value traded in debut​ ​ Cathie Wood’s latest actively managed ETF has completed its trading debut. On its first day, the exchange-traded fund ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKX)closed -1.07% and saw $295 million in value traded. Just under 14.5 million shares exchanged hands on the ARKX launch. To put that into perspective, the total volume of shares traded was higher than ARK's flagship fund, ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) +2.92%, which exchanged 14 million shares and that was above its daily average of 12 million. ARKX, with its 41 holdings, will invest in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies engaged in the fund’s investment theme of space exploration and innovation. ​ Sponsored By Yieldstreet ​ What else is happening... BlackBerry (NYSE:BB) anticipates a double-digit billings growth for cybersecurity and BTS for FY 2022. Regeneron's (NASDAQ:REGN) Eylea reduces vision loss by 68% after two years in diabetic retinopathy. Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) is developing a chip to power the hardware switches used in networking. Reports generated out of China indicate that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Toyota (TM) are considering working together on developing a small SUV platform. National Football League owners filed paperwork Monday for an initial public offering to raise as much as $460M for its eighth SPAC.​ ​ Tuesday's Key Earnings BlackBerry (NYSE:BB) -8.1% AH as Q4 revenue falls short. Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) 10.5% AH after earnings beat, setting guidance ahead of expectations. Voxeljet (NASDAQ:VJET) -11.8% AH as Q4 sales decline amid weak 3D printer demand. Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) -1.8% AH after Q4 results.​ Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -0.9%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.7%. India -1.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.3% to $60.30. Gold -0.1%at $1685.10. Bitcoin +0.2% to $58091. Ten-year Treasury Yield +1.1 bps to 1.735% ​

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[CoachCB]

I'm interested in seeing the creative way they're planning to pay for this (i.e. what new taxes or tax increases we're about to see).

Also, the idea that showing an ID to vote is racist is one of the dumbest things perpetrated from the left in this country. Yeah, sure....blacks are too stupid to get an ID. smh

 

[Bozzie]

Yeah..Showing an ID shouldn't be a problem when voting.....No doubt.

Global Market Comments March 31, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HERE’S AN EASY WAY TO PLAY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE), (BOTZ), (NVDA), (ISRG)

​ Here an Easy Way to Play Artificial IntelligenceWe are now seven months into the tech correction, and it may come to an end in a month or two. That turn will be dictated by the topping in the ten-year US Treasury bond somewhere around the 10% yield. So, generational opportunities are starting to open up in some of the best long-term market sectors. It’s time to start building your list of names for when the sun, moon, and stars line up. Suppose there was an exchange-traded fund that focused on the single most important technology trend in the world today. You might think that I was smoking California’s largest export (it’s not grapes). But such a fund DOES exist. The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) drops a golden opportunity into investors’ laps as a way to capture part of the growing movement behind automation. The fund currently has an impressive $2.6 billion in assets under management. The universal trend of preferring automation over human labor is spreading with each passing day. Suffice to say there is the unfortunate emotional element of sacking a human and the negative knock-on effect to the local community like in Detroit, Michigan. But simply put, robots do a better job, don’t complain, don’t fall ill, don’t join unions, or don’t ask for pay rises. It’s all very much a capitalist’s dream come true. Instead of dallying around in single stock symbols, now is the time to seize the moment and take advantage of the single seminal trend of our lifetime. No, it’s not online dating, gambling, or bitcoin, it’s Artificial Intelligence. Selecting individual stocks that are purely exposed to A.I. is challenging endeavor. Companies need a way to generate returns to shareholders first and foremost, hence, most pure A.I. plays do not exist right now. However, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has found the most unadulterated A.I. play out there. A real diamond in the rough. The best way to expose yourself to this A.I. trend is through Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ). This ETF tracks the price and yield performance of ten crucial companies that sit on the forefront of the A.I. and robotic development curve. It invests at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of the underlying index. The expense ratio is only 0.68%. Another caveat is that the underlying companies are only derived from developed countries. Out of the 10 disclosed largest holdings, seven are from Japan, two are from Silicon Valley, and one, ABB Group, is a Swedish-Swiss multinational headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland. Robotics and A.I. walk hand in hand, and robotics are entirely dependent on the germination prospects of A.I. Without A.I., robots are just a clunk of heavy metal. Robots require a high level of A.I. to meld seamlessly into our workforce. The stronger the A.I. functions, the stronger the robot’s ability, filtering down to the bottom line. A.I. embedded robots are especially prevalent in military, car manufacturing, and heavy machinery. The industrial robot industry projects to reach $80 billion per year in sales by 2024 as more of the workforce gradually becomes automated. The robotic industry has become so prominent in the automotive industry that they constitute greater than 50% of robot investments in America. Let’s get the ball rolling and familiarize readers of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter with the top 5 weightings in the underlying ETF (BOTZ). Nvidia (NVDA) Nvidia Corporation is a company I often write about as their main business is producing GPU chips for the video game industry. This Santa Clara, California-based company is spearheading the next wave of A.I. advancement by focusing on autonomous vehicle technology and A.I. integrated cloud data centers as their next cash cow. All these new groundbreaking technologies require ample amounts of GPU chips. Consumers will eventually cohabitate with state-of-the-art IOT products (internet of things), fueled by GPU chips, coming to mass market like the Apple Homepod. The company is led by genius Jensen Huang, a Taiwanese American, who cut his teeth as a microprocessor designer at competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Nvidia constitutes a hefty 8.70% of the BOTZ ETF. To visit their website, please click here. Yasakawa Electric (Japan) Yasakawa Electric is the world's largest manufacturer of AC Inverter Drives, Servo and Motion Control, and Robotics Automation Systems, headquartered in Kitakyushu, Japan. It is a company I know well, having covered this former zaibatsu company as a budding young analyst in Japan 45 years ago. Yaskawa has fully committed to improve global productivity through Automation. It comprises the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] largest portion of BOTZ at 8.35%. To visit Yaskawa’s website, please click here. Fanuc Corp. (Japan) Fanuc was another one of the hot robotics companies I used to trade in during the 1970s, and I have visited their main factory many times. The 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] largest portion in the (BOTZ) ETF at 7.78% is Fanuc Corp. This company provides automation products and computer numerical control systems, headquartered in Oshino, Yamanashi. They were once a subsidiary of Fujitsu, which focused on the field of numerical control. The bulk of their business is done with American and Japanese automakers and electronics manufacturers. They have snapped up 65% of the worldwide market in the computerized numerical device market (CNC). Fanuc has branch offices in 46 different countries. To visit their company website, please click here. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) trades on Nasdaq and is located in sun-drenched Sunnyvale, California. This local firm designs, manufactures, and markets surgical systems and is completely industriously focused on the medical industry. The company's da Vinci Surgical System converts surgeon's hand movements into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient. The products include surgeon's consoles, patient-side carts, 3-D vision systems, da Vinci skills simulators, da Vinci Xi integrated table motions. This company comprises 7.60% of BOTZ. To visit their website, please click here. Keyence Corp (Japan) Keyence Corp is the leading supplier of automation sensors, vision systems, barcode readers, laser markers, measuring instruments, and digital microscopes. They offer a full array of service support and closely work with customers to guarantee full functionality and operation of the equipment. Their technical staff and sales teams add value to the company by cooperating with its buyers. They have been consistently ranked as the top 10 best companies in Japan and boast an eye-opening 50% operating margin. They are headquartered in Osaka, Japan and make up 7.54% of the BOTZ ETF. To visit their website, please click here. (BOTZ) does have some pros and cons. The best AI plays are either still private at the venture capital level or have already been taken over by giant firms like NVIDIA. You also need to have a pretty broad definition of AI to bring together enough companies to make up a decent ETF. However, it does get you a cheap entry into many for the illiquid foreign names in this fund. Automation is one of the reasons why this is turning into the deflationary century and I recommend all readers who don’t own their own robotic-led business, pick up some Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ). And by the way, the entry point right here on the charts is almost perfect. To learn more about (BOTZ), please visit their website by clicking here. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Quote of the Day"Good fortune is often more fatal than adversity," said the 18[SUP]th[/SUP] century German emperor, Frederick the Great.

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor For full disclosures click here at: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM) and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM) are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C) is protected by the United States Copyright Office Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Fiat Lux!
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
[/COLOR]
​

 

[Bruins4Life]

BOTZ sounds interesting. Kinda like the KARS ETF I had last year. Exited that position too soon.

 

[Bozzie]

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story

April 1, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

Do you want a side of Bitcoin with that?Winnie Au for The New York Times

[h=2]Facts and foolishness[/h]

Announcing phony news on April Fools’ Day is one of corporate America’s favorite occasions for shameless publicity stunts. But when stonks, Dogecoinand $69 million JPG files are real things that warrant serious business coverage, the risk of jokes being taken seriously could hardly be higher. Some say that’s a good reason to skip them, not to mention the gravity that a pandemic has cast over things.

With that in mind, can you spot the prank among these recent announcements? (Scroll to the bottom for the answer.)

A: To celebrate National Burrito Day today, Chipotle is giving away $100,000 worth of Bitcoin.

B: Volkwagen’s U.S. operation is changing its name to “Voltswagen” to emphasize the company’s push into electric vehicles.

C: Robinhood is nixing a confetti animation when app users make a stock trade to reduce “distraction.”

D: Krispy Kreme is giving anyone who shows proof of Covid-19 vaccination one free doughnut per day for the rest of the year.

E: Managers at Goldman Sachs are giving junior bankers gift baskets with fruit and snacks in response to complaints about burnout.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Business groups challenge President Biden’s proposed corporate tax increases. The Business Roundtable and U.S. Chamber of Commerce were among those that praised Mr. Biden’s plan to spend trillions on infrastructure. But they rejected his idea to pay for it by raising taxes, saying that doing so would endanger the economic recovery.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Janet Yellen signals more hedge fund oversight. U.S. regulators will re-establish a group to study potential risks and vulnerabilities at hedge funds, the Treasury secretary said. Expect more scrutiny of swaps and family offices like Archegos, which fueled last week’s market turmoil.

The latest setbacks in quelling the pandemic. Johnson & Johnson said it would delay future shipments of its vaccine after a mix-up at a manufacturing plant. A top E.U. official said the bloc would allow “zero” shipments of AstraZeneca’s vaccine to Britain until the drugmaker fulfilled its commitments to Brussels. And France announced a third nationwide lockdown as its cases mount and inoculation efforts lag.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

A tough day for initial public offerings. As Deliveroo had “the worst I.P.O. in London’s history,” other offerings also struggled. In the U.S., the SoftBank-backed real estate brokerage Compass priced at the bottom of a reduced range, while the low-cost airline Frontier sold at the low end of expectations. And in Canada, the space tech company MDA priced below its range.

Microsoft wins a huge contract to make augmented-reality headsets for the U.S. Army. The tech giant will receive up to $22 billion for equipping soldiers with sensors based on its HoloLens technology. It’s another big defense contract for Microsoft, which beat out Amazon to provide a $10 billion cloud computing system for the Pentagon.

[h=2]Executives get a ‘sense of urgency’ in Georgia[/h]

A day after 72 Black executives signed a letter calling on companies to fight restrictive voting bills more forcefully, executives have begun speaking out more directly about laws that limit ballot access. But their statements came too late to affect a sweeping law passed last week in Georgia that added new requirements for absentee voting, limits on drop boxes and other restrictions that have an outsize impact on Black voters.

Continue reading the main story

[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Delta and Coca-Cola reversed course. Ed Bastian, Delta’s C.E.O., told employees, “I need to make it crystal clear that the final bill is unacceptable and does not match Delta’s values.” James Quincey, Coca-Cola’s C.E.O., said he wanted to be “crystal clear” that “the Coca-Cola Company does not support this legislation, as it makes it harder for people to vote, not easier.”

The statements by the Atlanta-based companies angered local politicians, including Gov. Brian Kemp. In the past, corporate stands on controversial issues have led to political retribution: In 2018, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle stripped a tax break proposal from a bill that would benefit Delta after the airline ended a promotional discount for N.R.A. members. The State House passed a similar measure yesterday, but the Senate didn’t take it up before the chambers adjourned for the year. Retaliation also goes the other way: In an interview with ESPN, President Biden said he would “strongly support” moving Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game from Atlanta, scheduled for July.

“It is regrettable that the sense of urgency came after the legislation was passed and signed into law,” said Darren Walker, the Ford Foundation president, who is a board member at Pepsi, Ralph Lauren and Square.

Others companies based in Georgia remained circumspect. A UPS spokesperson said the company stood “ready to continue to help in ensuring every Georgia voter has the ability to vote.” A spokesperson for Home Depot reiterated the company’s stance that it believes “all elections should be accessible, fair and secure.” A spokesperson for Inspire Brands, the owner of Dunkin’ Donuts and Arby’s, said that it “values inclusivity” and believes that “every American should have equal access to their right to vote.”

[h=2]“The argument is they are recruited, they’re used up and then they’re cast aside without even a college degree. So they say, how can this be defended in the name of amateurism?”[/h]

— Justice Samuel Alito, assessing the “stark picture” painted by college athletes in an antitrust case against the N.C.A.A. that the Supreme Court heard yesterday.

[h=2]The Red Sox sold a stake to private equity. Now what?[/h]

RedBird Capital Partners confirmed its deal to buy a stake in Red Sox parent Fenway Sports Group, a transaction that values the company at $7.35 billion. DealBook spoke with RedBird’s founder, Gerry Cardinale, and Fenway’s chair, Tom Werner, about what happens next.

Buy and build. RedBird plans to acquire more teams: Mr. Cardinale noted that his company doesn’t own teams in the N.B.A., N.H.L. or M.L.S. For its part, Fenway plans to tap new opportunities in ticketing, sponsorship and media. (As part of the RedBird deal, the N.B.A. star LeBron James bought a stake in Fenway.) In media, Fenway controls NESN, and RedBird owns a stake in the YES network. “You should expect that we’re going to continue to look for ways to innovate in that area,” said Mr. Cardinale, who helped create the YES network.

Deepening ties with online gambling is also on the table. “We do have an excellent relationship with DraftKings,” Mr. Werner said, “and we’ve already had some conversations with them about partnerships.”

The deal was a better fit for the private market instead of a SPAC, the executives said, after talks to take Fenway public via a blank-check firm fell through. “In the middle of Covid, with the mandate to re-underwrite the next wave of growth for Fenway Sports Group, we probably would be better off doing that privately and then give ourselves the option down the road,” Mr. Cardinale said of going public. He also called the current SPAC market “very frothy.”

[h=2]What worked at WeWork[/h]

WeWork was founded in 2008, rose spectacularly, reached a $47 billion valuation and famously crashed before a planned I.P.O. in 2019. (It announced a deal last week to go public by merging with a blank-check firm that valued it at roughly $8 billion.) A new documentary, “WeWork: Or the Making and Breaking of a $47 Billion Unicorn,” tries to find lessons among the ups and downs. It streams on Hulu, starting tomorrow.

Jed Rothstein, the director, told DealBook that he believes what’s most compelling about WeWork isn’t what went wrong, but how it initially succeeded by turning strangers into a kind of tribe. “We still need that,” he said.

“The core idea of WeWork met a real need for community,” Mr. Rothstein said. “The voids people were trying to fill have only become more real.” After a year of social distancing, he likes the notion of curated communal spaces, which is what WeWork offered. Talking to early WeWorkers who bought the vision and later felt betrayed, he was surprised to find how much the company gave its devotees, notably a feeling that they were part of something bigger. That is worth acknowledging in a world where people will increasingly work remotely and for many different companies in their careers, Mr. Rothstein said.

WeWork’s co-founders, Adam Neumann and Miguel McKelvey, both had communal childhood experiences. Mr. Rothstein said he thought they sincerely wanted to replicate the good in group life and inspired people who hadn’t seen that before. But Mr. Neumann also focused on what he didn’t like — sharing equally — and emphasized an “eat what you kill” mentality. Ultimately, his hunger turned the community dream into a nightmare for many.

After the director talked to people who followed the initial vision, his perspective changed. “People in the film experienced real growth and fulfillment mixed with their anger,” he said. “I realized the story is much more nuanced.”

Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

The media conglomerate Endeavor filed to go public for a second time, while raising $1.8 billion to buy full control of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. It also added Elon Musk to its board. (WSJ, CNBC) Vice Media is reportedly in talks to go public by merging with a SPAC. And the S.E.C. issued two notices for companies looking to go public via SPAC. (The Information, S.E.C.) Junior bankers aren’t the only ones feeling burned out. Young lawyers are, too. (Business Insider)

Politics and policy

New York became the 15th state to legalize recreational marijuana. (NYT) Efforts by aides to Gov. Andrew Cuomo to hide New York State’s Covid-19 death toll coincided with his efforts to win a multimillion-dollar book deal. (NYT) An accidental disclosure by the I.R.S. revealed a $1 billion tax dispute with Bristol Myers Squibb. (NYT)

Tech

Inside President Biden’s infrastructure plan: $174 billion to encourage the use of electric vehicles and $100 billion to improve rural internet access. (NYT) Goldman Sachs plans to offer cryptocurrencies to private wealth clients by the summer. (CNBC)

Best of the rest

The ad agency Deutsch is doubling referral bonuses for Black job candidates. (Insider) Amazon wants its employees mostly back in its offices, while the Carlyle Group and IBM favor hybrid working models. (Insider, Bloomberg) Paul Simon is the latest musician to sell his entire back catalog: Sony Music Publishing will buy the collection, including classics like “Bridge Over Troubled Water,” for an undisclosed amount. (NYT)

Feeling burned-out? As more workers consider a return to the office, our colleague Sarah Lyall is writing about late-pandemic anxiety and exhaustion. Tell her about how you’re coping.

April Fools’ Day quiz answer: B. If you were fooled by Volkswagen’s prank, you’re in good company. Volkswagen reportedly told journalists that a draft of the announcement was not a stunt. It later called the stunt just “a bit of fun.”

The “Bitcoin or Burritos” promotion, digital confetti celebrating stock trades, free doughnuts for the vaccinated and fruit baskets for overworked bankers are all real — until proven otherwise.

Thanks for reading! We’re taking a break tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday.

We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

Continue reading the main story

Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin

Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian

Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler

Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced

Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch

Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments
April 1, 2021
Fiat LuxFeatured Trade:(MARCH 31 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(FB), (ZM), ($INDU), (X), (NUE), (WPM), (GLD), (SLV), (KMI), (TLT), (TBT), (BA), (SQ), (PYPL), (JNP), (CP), (UNP), (TSLA), (GS), (GM), (F)​

​

March 31 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&ABelow please find subscribers’ Q&A for the March 31 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from frozen Incline Village, NV.
Q: Would you buy Facebook (FB) or Zoom (ZM) right here?
A: Well, Zoom was kind of a one-hit wonder; it went up 12 times on the pandemic as we moved to a Zoom economy, and while Zoom will permanently remain a part of our life, you’re not going to get that kind of growth in stock prices in the future. Facebook on the other hand is going to new highs, they just announced they’re laying a new fiber optic cable to Asia to handle a 70% increase in traffic there. So, for the longer term and buying here, I think you get a new high on Facebook soon; there's maybe another 20-30% move in Facebook this year.
Q: I can’t really chase these trades here, right?
A: Correct; if you wait any more than a day or 2 on executing a trade alert, you’re missing out on all of the market timing value we bring to the game. So that's why I include an entry price and the “don’t pay more than” price. And we never like to chase, except last year, when we did it almost all the time. But last year was a chase market, this year not so much.
Q: How are LEAP purchase notifications transmitted?
A: Those go out in the daily newsletter Global Trading Dispatch when I see a rare entry point for a LEAP, then we’ll send out a piece and notify everybody. But it’s very unusual to get those. Of course, a year ago we were sending out lists of LEAPS ten at a time when the Dow Average ($INDU) is at 18,000. But that is not now, you only wait for those once or twice a year. On huge selloffs to get into two-year-long options trades, and that is definitely not now. The only other place I've been looking out for LEAPS right now are really bombed out technology stocks begging for a rotation. Concierge members get more input on LEAPS and that is a $10,000 a year upgrade.
Q: What are your thoughts on silver (SLV) and long-term gold (GLD)?
A: I see silver going to $50 and eventually $100 in this economic cycle, but it's out of favor right now because of rising interest rates. So, once we hit 2.00% in the ten years, it’s not only off to the races for tech but also gold and silver. Watch that carefully because your entry point may be on the horizon. That makes Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) a very attractive “BUY” right now.
Q: Are you going to trade the (TLT)?
A: Absolutely yes, but I’m kind of getting picky now that I’m up 42% on the year; and I only like to sell 5-point rallies, which we got for about 15 minutes last week. And I also only like to buy 5- or 10-point dips. Keep your trading discipline and you’ll make a ton of money in this market. Last year we made about 30% trading bonds on about 30 round trips.
Q: How much further upside is there for US Steel (X) and Nucor Corp. (NUE)?
A: More. There's no way you do infrastructure without using millions of tons of steel. And I kind of missed the bottom on US Steel because it had been a short for so long that it kind of dropped off the radar for me. I think we have gone from $4 to 27 since last year, but I think it goes higher. It turns out the US has been shutting down steel production for decades because it couldn't compete with China or Japan, and now all of a sudden, we need steel, and we don’t even make the right kind of steel to build bridges or subways anymore—that has to be imported. So, most of the steel industry here now is working for the car industry, which produces cold-rolled steel for the car body panels. Even that disappears fairly soon as that gets taken over by carbon fiber. So enough about steel, buy the dips on (X) and (NUE).
Q: What stocks should I consider for the infrastructure project?
A: Well, US Steel (X) and Nucor Corp (NUE) would be good choices; but really you can buy anything because the infrastructure package, the way it’s been designed, is to benefit the entire economy, not just the bridge and freeway part of it. Some of it is for charging stations and electric car subsidies. Other parts are for rural broadband, which is great for chip stocks. There is even money to cap abandoned oil wells to rope in Texas supporters. All of this is going to require a massive upgrade of the power grid, which will generate lots of blue-collar jobs. Really everybody benefits, which is how they get it through Congress. No Congressperson will want to vote against a new bridge or freeway for their district. That’s always the case in Washington, which is why it will take several months to get this through congress because so many thousands of deals need to be cut. I’ve been in Washington when they’ve done these things, and the amount of horse-trading that goes on is incredible.
Q: Is it a good thing that I’ve had the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) LEAPS $125 puts for a long time.
A: Yes. Good for you, you read my research. Remember, the (TLT) low in this economic cycle is probably around $80, so you probably want to keep rolling forward your position….and double up on any ten-point rally.
Q: Do you think we get a pop back up?
A: We do but from a lower level. I think any rallies in the bond market are going to be extremely limited until we hit the 2.00%, and then you’re going to get an absolute rip-your-face-off rally to clean out all the short term shorts. If you're running put LEAPS on the (TLT) I would hang on, it’s going to pay off big time eventually.
Q: If we see 3.00% on the 10-year this year, do you see the stock market crashing?
A: I don’t think we’ll hit 3.00% until well into next year, but when we do, that will be time for a good 10% stock market correction. Then everyone will look around again and say, “wow nothing happened,” and that will take the market to new highs again; that's usually the way it plays out. Remember, then year yields topped all the way up at 5.00% when the Dotcom Bubble topped in April 2020.
Q: Has the airline hospitality industry already priced in the reopening of travel?
A: No, I think they priced in the hope of a reopening, but that hasn’t actually happened yet, and on these giant recovery plays there are two legs: the “hope for it” leg, which has already happened, and then the actual “happening” leg which is still ahead of us. There you can get another double in these stocks. When they actually reopen international travel to Europe and Asia, which may not happen this year, the only reopening we’re going to see in the airline business is in North America. That means there is more to go in the stock price. Also coming back from the brink of death on their financial reports will be an additional positive.
Q: Do you think a corporate tax increase will drive companies out of the US again and raise the unemployment rate?
A: Absolutely not. First of all, more than half of the S&P 500 don’t even pay taxes, so they’re not going anywhere. Second, I think they will make these offshoring moves to tax-free domiciles like Ireland illegal and bring a lot of tax revenues back to the US. And third, all Biden is doing is returning the tax rate to where it was in 2017; and while the corporate tax rate was 35%, the stock market went up 400% during the Obama administration, if you recall. So stocks aren't really that sensitive to their tax rates, at least not in the last 50 years that I’ve been watching. I'm not worried at all. And Biden was up on the polls a year ago talking about a 28% tax rate; and since then, the stock market has nearly doubled. The word has been out for a year and priced in for a year, and I don't think anybody cares.
Q: What about quantum computers?
A: I’m following this very closely, it’s the next major generation for technology. Quantum computers will allow a trillion-fold improvement in computing power at zero cost. And when there's a stock play, I will do it; but unfortunately, it’s not (IBM), because we’re not at the money-making stage on these yet. We are still at the deep research stage. The big beneficiaries now are Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN).
Q: Is it time to buy Chinese stocks?
A: I would say yes. I would start dipping in here, especially on the quality names like Tencent (TME), Baidu (BIDU), and Alibaba (BABA), because they’ve just been trashed. A lot of the selloff was hedge fund-driven which has now gone bust, and I think relations with China improve under Biden.
Q: Your timing on Tesla (TSLA) has been impeccable; what do you look for in times of pivots?
A: Tesla trades like no other stock, I have actually lost money on a couple of Tesla trades. You have to wait for things to go to extremes, and then wait two more days. That seems to be the magic formula. On the first big selloff go take a long nap and when you wake up, the temptation to buy it will have gone away. It always goes up higher than you expect, and down lower than you expect. But because the implied volatilities go anywhere from 70% to 100%, you can go like 200 points out of the money on a 3-week view and still make good money every month. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do for the rest of the year, as long as the trading’s down here in the $500-$600 range.
Q: Is Editas Medicine (EDIT), a DNA editing stock, still good?
A: Buy both (EDIT) and Crisper (CRSP); they both look great down here with an easy double ahead. This is a great long-term investment play with gene editing about to dominate the medical field. If you want to learn more about (EDIT) and (CRSP) and many others like them, subscribe to the Mad Hedge Fund Biotech & Healthcare Letter because we cover this stuff multiple times a week (click here).
Q: Is the XME Metals ETF a buy?
A: I would say yes, but I'd wait for a bigger dip. It’s already gone up like 10X in a year, but the outlook for the economy looks fantastic. (XME) has to double from here just to get to the old 2008 high and we have A LOT more stimulus this time around.
Q: What about hydrogen?
A: Sorry, I am just not a believer in hydrogen. You have to find someone else to be bullish on hydrogen because it’s not me. I've been following the technology for 50 years and all I can say is: go do an image Google for the name “Hindenburg” and tell me if you want to buy hydrogen. Electricity is exponentially scalable, but Hydrogen is analog and has to be moved around in trucks that can tip over and blow up at any time. Hydrogen batteries are nowhere near economic. We are now on the eve of solid-state lithium-ion batteries which improve battery densities 20X, dropping Tesla battery weights from 1,200 points to 60 pounds. So “NO” on hydrogen. Am I clear?
Q: Why do you do deep-in-the-money call and put spreads?
A: We do these because they make money whether the stock goes up down or sideways, we can do them on a monthly basis, we can do them on volatility spikes, and make double the money you normally do. The day-to-day volatility on these positions is very low, so people following a newsletter don’t get these huge selloffs and sell at bottoms, which is the number one source of retail investor losses. After 13 years of trade alerts, I have delivered a 40.30% average annualized return with a quarter of the market volatility. Most people will take that.
Q: Is ProShares Ultra Short 20 Year Plus Treasury ETF(TBT) still a play for the intermediate term?
A: I would say yes. If ten-year US Treasury bonds Yields soar from 1.75% to 5.00% the (TBT) should rise from $21 to $100 because it is a 2X short on bonds. That sounds like a win for me, as long as you can take short term pain.
Q: What is the timing to buy TLT LEAPS?
A: The answer was in January when we were in the $155-162 range for the (TLT). Down here I would be reluctant to do LEAPS on the TLT because we’ve already had a $25 point drop this year, and a drop of $48 from $180 high in a year. So LEAP territory was a year ago but now I wouldn’t be going for giant leveraged trades. That train has left the station. That ship has sailed. And I can’t think of a third Metaphone for being too late.
Q: Would you buy Kinder Morgan (KMI) here?
A: That’s an oil exploration infrastructure company. No, all the oil plays were a year ago, and even six months ago you could have bought them. But remember, in oil you’re assuming you can get in and out before it crashes again, it’s just a matter of time before it does. I can do that but most of you probably can’t, unless you sit in front of your screens all day. You’re betting against the long-term trend. It works if you’re a hedge fund trader, not so much if you are a long-term investor. Never bet against the long-term trend and you always have a tailwind behind you. All surprises work to your benefit.
Q: If you get a head and shoulders top on bitcoin, how far does it fall?
A: How about zero? 80% is the traditional selloff amount for Bitcoin. So, the thing is: if bitcoin falls you have to worry about all other investments that have attracted speculative interest, which is essentially everything these days. You also have to worry about Square (SQ), ****** (PYPL), and Tesla (TSLA), which have started processing Bitcoin transactions. Bitcoin risk is spread all over the economy right now. Those who rode the bandwagon up will ride it back down.
Q: Is Boeing (BA) a long-term buy?
A: Yes, especially because the 737 Max is back up in the air and China is back in the market as a huge buyer of U.S. products after a four-year vacation. Airlines are on the verge of seeing a huge plane shortage.
Q: What about Ags?
A: We quit covering years ago because they’re in permanent long-term downtrends and very hard to play. US farmers are just too good at their jobs. Efficiencies have double or tripled in 60 years. Ag prices are in a secular 150-year bear market thanks to technology.
Q: Is this recorded to watch later?
A: Yes, it goes on our website in about two hours. For directions on where to find it, log in to your www.madhedgefundtrader.com account, go to “My Account,” and it will be listed under there, as are all the recorded webinars of the last 12 years.
Q: Would you buy Canadian Pacific (CP) here, the railroad?
A: No, that news is in the price. Go buy the other ones—Union Pacific (UNP) especially.
Q: What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?
A: We don’t cover Bitcoin because I think the whole thing is a Ponzi scheme, but who am I to say. There is almost ten times more research and newsletters out there on Bitcoin as there is on stock trading right now. They seem to be growing like mushrooms after a spring storm. There are always a lot of exports out there at market tops, as we saw with gold in 2010 and tech stock in 2000.
Q: What do you think about Juniper Networks (JNP)?
A: It’s a Screaming “BUY” right here with a double ahead of it in two years. I’m just waiting for the tech rotation to get going. This is a long-term accumulate on dips and selloffs.
Q: Did the Archagos Investments hedge fund blow threaten systemic risk?
A: No, it seems to be limited just to this one hedge fund and just to the people who lent to it. You can bet banks are paring back lending to the hedge fund industry like crazy right now to protect their earnings. I don’t think it gets to the systemic point, but this is the Long Term Capital Management for our generation. I was involved in the unwind of the last LTCM capital, which was 23 years ago. I was one of the handful of people who understood what these people were even doing. So, they had to bring me in on the unwind and huge fortunes were made on that blowup by a lot of different parties, one of which was Goldman Sachs (GS). I can tell you now that the statute of limitations has run out and now that it's unlikely I'll ever get a job there, but Goldman made a killing on long-term capital, for sure.
Q: Will Tesla benefit from the Biden infrastructure plan?
A: I would say Tesla is at the top of the list of companies the Biden administration wants to encourage. That means more charging stations and more roads, which you need to drive cars on, and bridges, and more tax subsidies for purchases of new electric cars. It’s good not just Tesla but everybody’s, now that GM (GM) and Ford (F) are finally starting to gear up big numbers of EVs of their own. By the way, I don't see any of the new startups ever posing a threat to Tesla. The only possible threats would be General Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen, which are all ten years behind.
Q: Would you put 10% of your retirement fund into cryptocurrencies?
A: Better to flush it down the toilet because there’s no commission on doing that.
Q: Is growing debt a threat to the economy? How much more can the government borrow?
A: It appears a lot more, because Biden has already indicated he’s going to spend ten trillion dollars this year, and the bond market is at a 1.70%—it’s incredibly low. I think as long as the Fed keeps overnight rates at near-zero and inflation doesn't go over 3%, that the amount the government can borrow is essentially unlimited, so why stop at $10 or $20 trillion? They will keep borrowing and keep stimulating until they see actual inflation, and I don’t think we will see that for years because inflation is being wiped out by technology improvements, as it has done for the last 40 years. The market is certainly saying we can borrow a lot more with no serious impact on the economy. But how much more nobody knows because we are in uncharted territory, or terra incognita.
To watch a replay of this webinar just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com , go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

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[CoachCB]

I like these Q&A's boz. I hope he's right on BABA! I have some SLV, that I'm down about 5% on. I'm not sure if I should add more on the dips or buy the precious metals ETF. I have a buy order on TSLA at $550 and it dipped into the high 500's last week, I thought I was going to see $550...but it didn't happen and it's now up to $660.

 

[Bozzie]

I like these Q&A's boz. I hope he's right on BABA! I have some SLV, that I'm down about 5% on. I'm not sure if I should add more on the dips or buy the precious metals ETF. I have a buy order on TSLA at $550 and it dipped into the high 500's last week, I thought I was going to see $550...but it didn't happen and it's now up to $660.

Nice job report this AM..
Yeah me too..I'm not too worried about BABA long I've added little bits in the 220's
The one I've been playing is twist (TWST).. the weekly moves have been insane it's been a great flip this month, I've been in a out three times now in march (Nothing huge) The march chart is nuts.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWST?.tsrc=applewf

I keep thinking about Tesla but can't get my head around Musk or the car.

 

[Bruins4Life]

It's strange that he is big on TESLA but says dont touch bitcoin.
And Tesla just having bought all that bitcoin earlier this year.

 

[Bozzie]

LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON: ​ ​ ​ Welcome to Wall Street Brunch, our preview of stock market events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. You can also catch this article a day early by subscribing to the Stocks to Watch account for Saturday morning delivery. Outlook Economic reports in the week ahead​ ​ ​ Shutterstock​ ​ The second quarter is off to a blazing start with the S&P 500 Index pushing above 4,000 on the heels of President Biden's infrastructure plan update. In the week ahead, the market focus may turn to whether Congress will pass the infrastructure plan that includes $2T in spending and higher corporate taxes. Economists at Jefferies estimate Biden's infrastructure plan overall could add 0.5 to 1 percentage points to their estimate of 5.2% growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2022. Chips will also be in the spotlight next week, with events on tap for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) amid growing worries on the global chip shortage.​ Earnings There is a very light schedule of earnings reports next week. The list of reporters includes Greenbrier (NYSE:GBX) and Lindsay (NYSE:LNN) on April 6; Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) and Carnival (NYSE:CCL) on April 7, Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) and Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI) on April 8 and JinkoSolar Holding (NYSE:JKS) on April 9.​ IPOs Inspira Technologies Oxy B.H.N. (IINN) could price its IPO next week. The Israel-based medtech company is selling 2.8M shares. The analyst quiet period expires on Coupang (NYSE:CPNG) and First High-School Education (NYSE:FHS) on April 5, as well as Joann (JOANN), Hayward (NYSE:HAYW), Prometheus Bio (NASDAQ:RXDX) and Longboard Pharma (NASDAQ:LBPH) on April 6. Notable IPO lockup expirations include Presidio Property (NASDAQ:SQFT) on April 5, Aziyo Bioogics (NASDAQ:AZYO) on April 6 and Kronos Bio (NASDAQ:KRON) on April 7. Across the Pacific, Trip.com (NASDAQ:TRIP) could launch a secondary listing in Hong Kong that reportedly could be valued at more than $1B.​ Dividends Projected dividend increases (quarterly): The list of companies expected to increase their dividend payouts includes Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) to $1.08 from $1.03 and HB Fuller (NYSE:FUL) to $0.165 from $0.1625.​ M&A The tender offer on the Pluralsight (NASDAQ:PS)-Vista deal expires on April 5. Shareholders vote on the Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) acquisition by AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) on April 7. Satellite-to-smartphone broadband company AST & Science (ASTS) expects to close its SPAC merger next week with New Providence. The new company will be called AST SpaceMobile. AST is building a network of satellites that is designed to deliver broadband from space directly to consumer smartphones. AST expects to bring in about $462M from the SPAC deal. ​ Events Major events next week include Intel (INTC) Ice Lake server chip reveal on April 6 and an investor day for Applied Materials (AMAT) on the same day. Lumen Technologies (NYSE:LUMN), Lee Enterprises (NYSE:LEE), CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) and CytomX Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CTMX) are also hosting investor events. Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) launches a new chicken sandwich at all U.S. Shake Shack locations. The new menu offering is Korean-style Fried Chick’n made with crispy chicken breast glazed with Gochujang sauce on top of a white kimchi slaw, topped with toasted sesame seeds, sandwiched on a bun. The chicken sandwich follows new offerings in the category from McDonald's and Wendy's. All three are trying to take market share away from Popeyes and Chick-Fil-A. The March sales numbers are due in for products sold at grocery stores, convenience stores and other retail outlets. The most interesting categories for investors to watch will be the shakeout in hard seltzer (White Claw, Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM), Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD), Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP), Constellations Brands (NYSE:STZ)) and energy drinks (Red Bull, Bang, Pepsi (NASDAQ:PEP), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH)). Conferences rundown: Notable conferences running during the week include the Wells Fargo Biotech Corporate Access Day 2021, the CIBC Real Estate Conference, the EnerCom Dallas Energy Investment & ESG Conference, the Cowen Consumer Platforms for the Next Generation Summit and the Wells Fargo Future Mobility Conference 2021. Go Deeper: Check out Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch​ Barron's mentions Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is seen as a value play with shares trading just 26X earnings estimates for the next 12 months vs. the historical average of 32X. It is also noted that Facebook ended 2020 with no debt and $62B worth of cash on its balance sheet, which could free it up to fire off more buybacks or pay a dividend. WW International (NASDAQ:WW) is also sized up favorably this week. Analysts expect the workshops business to bounce back as more people are vaccinated to help boost sales and the digital business is seen staying popular. Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) also gets a callout. Shares are labeled inexpensive after fallen down by over a third from their summer peak to trade at 15X projected 2021. This year’s free-cash-flow yield for GOLD is projected to be close to 10%. Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, The Verge, Renaissance Capital​

​

 

[CoachCB]

I'm getting the first vaccine shot tomorrow at the VA hospital. Hoping I don't grow a sixth toe or some shit here in the next few months!

 

[Bozzie]

I'm getting the first vaccine shot tomorrow at the VA hospital. Hoping I don't grow a sixth toe or some shit here in the next few months!

Today is the first day I'm eligible ...Think of the stuff you'll do with an extra toe.
I'm hoping for the chip..free cable TV with Pfizers chip.

April 5, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

Ed Bastian, Delta’s C.E.O., was persuaded to speak out by activists and the former AmEx chief Ken Chenault.Etienne Laurent/EPA, via Shutterstock

After Georgia

Corporations have increasingly taken social and political stands, often spurred by the policies of former President Donald Trump. But the dispute over voting rights is different, presenting a “head-spinning new landscape for big companies,” The Times’s David Gelles writes. Both political parties consider the issue a priority, so companies face potentially steep consequences no matter what they do.

“The business community was hoping that with a change of administration it might get a bit easier,” said Rich Lesser of the Boston Consulting Group. No such luck: Taking a stand on voting laws, like the one recently passed in Georgia that restricts ballot access in several ways, has again thrust companies into partisan politics, pulled by Democrats focused on social justice and Republicans who have proven willing to punish businesses that cross them.

Delta tried to stay out of the fight at first. The airline is Georgia’s largest employer, and civil rights activists reached out to the company in February, David reports, flagging what they saw as problematic provisions in the Georgia voting law. The next month, Delta’s lobbyists pushed state lawmakers to remove some of the provisions, although Ed Bastian, the carrier’s C.E.O., spoke out in general terms until the bill was passed.

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The night before a group of more than 70 Black executives published a letter decrying the law and others like it in the works, the former AmEx chief Ken Chenault, who is Black, spoke at length with Mr. Bastian. Mr. Bastian wrote a strongly worded memo that was sent to staff members the next morning, expressing “crystal clear” opposition to the law, which he said was “based on a lie.” Coca-Cola’s James Quincey quickly followed. The companies subsequently faced more criticism from Republican leaders than did other big Atlanta employers, like Home Depot and UPS, that stuck to less-specific statements about voting rights.

Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game became an early casualty of the law, with the league citing its opposition to “restrictions to the ballot box” as the reason for moving the game out of Atlanta. The league’s activist stance was supported by team owners like Derek Jeter and stars like LeBron James. It could have a significant impact: Moving the game could cost Georgia over $100 million in tourism revenue, prompting the state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, to decry the move as a surrender to liberal activists.

Not everyone agrees with boycotts as a strategy. Stacey Abrams, the prominent Georgia Democrat and voting rights activist, said she was “disappointed” by M.L.B.’s move and worried about the economic hit, but supported the league’s overall stance. The producer and actor Tyler Perry also fretted about collateral damage from boycotts even as he protested the law. (Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey sent a letter last week to entertainment studios in Georgia promoting his state’s tax breaks and “social policies” as reasons to move their productions.)

But while “there is undoubtedly going to be a cost,” Cecilia Rouse, one of the White House’s top economic advisers, told CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” she added, “I think that was the point.”

Trying to avoid a repeat in Texas, American Airlines and Dell have objected to a proposal that would restrict measures designed to make voting easier in the state. The statements were more forceful than Coke and Delta had initially been in Georgia. “To make American’s stance clear: We are strongly opposed to this bill and others like it,” the airline said.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Amazon is found to have illegally retaliated against internal critics. The National Labor Relations Board plans to accuse the e-commerce giant of unfair labor practices if it doesn’t settle with two former employees over their firings, The Times’s Karen Weise reports. Amazon also apologized for wrongly denyingthat some of its delivery drivers were forced to urinate in water bottles during their rounds.

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Retail traders are retrenching, for now. Trading by individual investors — credited with the meme-stock frenzy — has fallen from its recent highs. Analysts cited several potential reasons, including underperformance and an easing of pandemic lockdowns. The company at the center of meme-stock mania, GameStop, said today that it would sell up to 3.5 million new shares.

The U.S. puts Johnson & Johnson in charge of the plant that ruined 15 million doses. The decision will strip control from Emergent BioSolutions, which had been making vaccines for J.&J. and AstraZeneca at the facility. The plant will now produce only J.&J. shots.

A bidding war for Tribune Publishing breaks out. A special committee of the newspaper publisher’s board has reportedly determined that a $680 million takeover bid by a Maryland hotel developer and a Swiss billionaire is likely to lead to a superior offer than a proposal by Alden Global Capital, according to The Wall Street Journal. That would force Alden to raise its bid or walk away.

Top economic officials meet to map out post-pandemic steps. Virtual meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank this week will focus on the improving global outlook, driven largely by the U.S. and Chinese economies but threatened by a new wave of infections and lockdowns, particularly in Europe.

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The fallout from Archegos widens

As the financial world reckons with the meltdown of Archegos Capital Management, banks tied to the firm are weighing further changes to their businesses to prevent a similar trading disaster from happening again.

Credit Suisse is considering replacing its chief risk officer and investment banking head, Bloomberg reports. The Swiss bank, which was a prime broker to Archegos, potentially faces billions in losses from the rushed unwinding of the investment firm’s trades.

Hedge funds could switch prime brokers in the wake of the scandal. At issue is the reputation hit that lenders associated with Archegos have taken: “I’d not be very comfortable if we had balances” at one of them, an executive at a Europe-based hedge fund told The Financial Times.

“I think privacy is one of the top issues of the 21st century. And I think we’re in a crisis.”

— Tim Cook, the C.E.O. of Apple, on the “Sway” podcast. In the interview with Kara Swisher of Times Opinion, he also discusses tech companies’ role in the Capitol riot, Apple’s relationship with politics and the company’s plans for self-driving cars.

The invisible hand of business

Around 50 groups have filed amicus briefs in a coming Supreme Court case pitting charities against the state of California in a fight over donation disclosures. The Capitol riot on Jan. 6 put a spotlight on corporations’ direct and indirect political donations; justices agreed on Jan. 8 to hear the case and arguments will take place later this month.

Business interests want to create a “broad expansion of dark money rights,” according to a new brief from 15 Democratic senators, referring to untraceable donations that are often routed via nonprofit groups. The court case is an influence campaign disguised as a technical legal fight, the senators said. The case pits California against a charity, the Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity Foundation, over private access to tax documents. The Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers are among the trade groups supporting the foundation’s demand for anonymity.

Anonymous donors work like covert intelligence operations, the senators wrote. The donors give millions annually to “social welfare” groups that spend it in an effort to influence politics and policy. The senators pointed to congressional appropriations rules blocking disclosure efforts by the I.R.S. and S.E.C. over the past decade as evidence that the groups have swayed lawmakers behind the scenes. The case is the latest attempt “by powerful interests to both cement and obscure their influence over the public sphere,” the senators argued.

The federal government is with California, more or less, telling the justices in a brief that the nonprofits’ constitutional claim is wrong but that the case should be sent back to the lower courts for more analysis.

Get to know social tokens

As the “suits” finally get into Bitcoin, the crypto crowd has moved on to the next big thing: BitClout, a “polarizing” open-source crypto social network that monetizes influencers via personalized tokens that can be traded by users, essentially quantifying a person’s reputation.

BitClout’s recent launch has generated outrage because the company didn’t ask permission from people featured on the platform, instead launching with “reserved” currencies linked to celebrities like the Tesla founder Elon Musk, the pop star Katy Perry and about 15,000 others. Influencers can claim their coins, which requires buying in, but in the meantime fans can still buy and trade their tokens, BitClout’s white paper explains.

Silicon Valley bigwigs have backed BitClout, including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Social Capital, Coinbase Ventures, Winklevoss Capital and the Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian. A crypto wallet on the platform reportedly holds more than $150 million worth of Bitcoin, thought mostly to have been raised from these A-listers.

Bitcoin holders can buy BitClout’s cryptocurrency to exchange for influencer tokens, but can’t yet get Bitcoin back and off the platform. The company says it’s working on it.

The company’s founder goes by “DiamondHands,” a reference to investors who steadfastly hold speculative assets, popularized during the meme-stock frenzy.His true identity is an open secret among crypto insiders; signs point to Nader al-Naji, a former Google software engineer who has not denied the claim. Brandon Curtis of the exchange Radar Relay recently sent a cease and desist letter to Mr. al-Naji, protesting the commercialization of his persona without permission, and his counsel confirmed to DealBook that his profile was removed after that letter was sent.

“BitClout is trying to create ownership through code instead of law” but may find itself “throttled,” said Michael Heller, a Columbia law professor. “People don’t much like strangers messing with their reputations,” he added, and the “right of publicity” lets them police who can profit off their clout.

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THE SPEED READ

Deals

Pinterest has held talks to buy VSCO, a once-buzzy photography app. (NYT) Hertz picked a group including Centerbridge Partners and Warburg Pincus to lead its plan to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. (Reuters) Carl Icahn has hired Aris Kekedjian, a former chief investment officer at G.E., to become C.E.O. of Icahn Enterprises. (WSJ)

Politics and policy

More than two dozen companies in the Fortune 500 paid no federal income tax despite reporting a combined $77 billion in profits over the past three years. (NYT) Increased scrutiny of Chinese tech companies by Beijing has led to a big uptick in I.P.O. cancellations on Shanghai’s tech-focused Star market. (FT)

Tech

Streaming services are finally starting to run out of content. (Bloomberg) Investors are setting up digital trading floors on Clubhouse. (Axios)

Best of the rest

The surprise tax burden that may await those who worked remotely during the pandemic. (Recode) Among the collateral damage from Brooks Brothers’ bankruptcy filing: a huge bill to clear a warehouse full of unwanted mannequins. (NYT) “How Brexit Ruined Easter for Britain’s Chocolate Makers” (NYT)

 

[Bozzie]

Sounds like the postal service / feds are going to rework the transportation deal with Oshkosh...
I bought WKHS just after they lost the contact...From the Start the deal with Oshkosh was suspect.

Worth watching

WKHS

[FONT=&quot]There was just a small piece on CNBC stating that Biden is requiring all government vehicles are to be EVs INCLUDING the USPS vehicles. Congress could be stepping in “ to bring the contract all back to square one”.[/FONT]

 

[Bozzie]

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Top News Monster debut​ ​ ​ Shutterstock​ ​ Good news for the movie industry has finally arrived as tentpole Godzilla vs. Kong gave a shot in the arm for theaters and Hollywood. The film from Warner Bros. (NYSE:T) and Legendary Entertainment generated $32.2M over Easter Weekend and garnered $48.5M in the U.S. and Canada during its first five days of release. A monstrous debut was also seen abroad, where the movie added an additional $71.6M to its box office haul. Since opening last week internationally, the film has tallied $285.4M. Quote: "For anyone who may have doubted the pent-up demand for moviegoing, this performance is yet another sign of just how resilient the theatrical industry can be," said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com. Not only did GvK post the best pandemic opening numbers since March 2020, but the title opened in more than 3,000 theaters in North America over the weekend, the most of any movie during the pandemic. More than 90% of U.S. cinemas have so far reopened, according to Warner Bros, though they are operating at reduced capacity to meet social distancing guidelines. Outlook: The turnout among ticket buyers was especially notable given that the film is available for free for subscribers of HBO Max. Warner Bros last year decided to stream all of its 2021 movies on the same day they debut in cinemas, infuriating some filmmakers and actors, but the latest results may suggest the two can exist simultaneously. "To me, streaming and movie going were never really true enemies because they're two very different experiences," Robbins continued. "For the past year, people have been stuck at home and movie going has left our daily lives, and not by choice. Now that choice is back and we're seeing that people still want to go to the movies." (31 comments) ​ Economy Bumper jobs report​ ​ Investors are digesting the March nonfarm payrolls report a bit late as markets were closed at the end of the week for Good Friday. The strong bounce in U.S. job growth, compounded with an accelerating vaccine rollout, is giving traders renewed enthusiasm after the S&P 500 topped the 4,000 milestone for the first time on Thursday. Overnight, the index rose another 0.5%, along with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average. By the numbers: The NFP report smashed expectations, with the U.S. adding 916,000 jobs in March, the highest since August 2020. Growth was led by gains in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction, while the unemployment rate fell to 6% from 6.2%. Helping boost sentiment is expected stimulus from a coming infrastructure proposal, as well as the current pandemic picture. The U.S. reported another daily record of new COVID vaccinations on Saturday, pushing the weekly average of new shots per day above 3M. Other data this morning is expected to show a rebound in the U.S. services sector. The ISM Services Index, released at 10 a.m. ET, will likely display activity accelerating in the U.S. industries hardest hit by shutdowns and stay-at-home orders. A services recovery has so far lagged behind manufacturing, and investors will be watching the figures to gauge the start of a broader economic revival. Other notable movers: WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) slipped 2% overnight, paring the big gains made in the previous session after OPEC+ agreed to gradually raise production from May through July. Tesla (TSLA) shares meanwhile popped premarket, climbing 8% to $713/share, after Q1 deliveries topped estimates and Wedbush weighed in with an upgrade. (7 comments) ​ Sponsored by Northern Trust Trusts and Sustainable Investing: Building the Bridge​ ​ ​ Learn how modern trust and wealth planning practices can help align sustainable investment preferences with trustees’ fiduciary duties.​ Outlook Infrastructure push​ ​ President Biden's second major legislative initiative so far looks unlikely to draw more bipartisan support than his first $1.9T COVID-19 relief package. Republicans are taking aim at the $2T infrastructure plan released last week, with Senator Roy Blunt urging the administration to significantly scale back the project if Biden wants GOP support. "If we'd go back and look at roads and bridges and ports and airports, and maybe even underground water systems and broadband, you'd still be talking about less than 30% of this entire package," he said on Fox News Sunday. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has also vowed to fight the scheme at "every step of the way," saying the proposal would increase debt and raise taxes. It may not matter. Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Biden is willing to push through the American Jobs Plan. He would prefer to have GOP backing, she told CNN's State of the Union, but if that does not work, he would likely support using reconciliation to allow Democrats to pass it in the Senate. The White House is also planning a second proposal in the coming weeks to address so-called social infrastructure, including childcare, healthcare and college tuition, which would be paid for by tax increases on wealthy households. Bigger picture: The infrastructure initiative, as well as the measures it contains to curb climate change (net-zero emissions by 2050), may be the next tailwind for ESG funds. The investments already captured $51.1M of net new money from investors in 2020, marking their fifth consecutive annual record, according to Morningstar. 3 out of 4 sustainable funds even ranked in the top half of their investment category over the past three years. Go deeper: Barron's this weekend discussed some stocks that may enjoy further gains if the market sees an infrastructure plan moving towards passage. Among them are engineering and construction companies like MasTec (NYSE:MTZ) and Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC), as well as clean-tech winners including TPI Composites (NASDAQ:TPIC), Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) and SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG). Discover another 10 stocks that could benefit from the bill. (81 comments) ​ Real Estate Housing boom​ ​ Stocks aren't the only market to have rallied for much of the last year. In fact, the real estate sector has seen some of the fastest house price growth in more than a decade and there aren't many communities where prices have fallen since the pandemic. Despite rising costs and mortgage rates, homes are still getting snatched off the market at a record pace, per a new Redfin report. About 59% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within two weeks of hitting the market, while more than 40% of homes sold above the original asking price. U.S. home prices soared 11.2% in January, their biggest annual increase in 15 years, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. The data also "remained consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes," declared Craig Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. Roughly one-quarter of American workers are now doing their jobs from home, along with children who are going to school online. Flashback to 2007? Not really. Many argue that this time around buyers have higher credit ratings and are putting down more cash up-front. Economists also forecast sales to rise again this year, while there are fewer systemic risks and the market is critically undersupplied. New construction hasn't kept up with household demand, and buyers are competing fiercely for a limited number of homes. While financial firms are still packaging mortgages as securities, the vast majority of those today have government backing. Outlook: "Looking ahead, Biden's infrastructure plan aims to incentivize zoning for multi-family homes, which could increase the supply of affordable homes and provide even more people a path to homeownership," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "But there is no guarantee the incentives would be enough for local governments to change their zoning practices." ​ Sponsored by Northern Trust ​ Tech Smartphone exit​ ​ Once one of the top smartphone makers in the U.S., LG Electronics is exiting the mobile business after talks with potential buyers came to an end. The South Korean company was early to market with a number of cell phone innovations (ultra-wide angle cameras and powerful stereo speakers), and at its peak in 2013, it was even the world's largest smartphone manufacturer behind Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Those two will likely gobble up its market share, which stands at 10% in North America. What happened? Its flagship models were hurt by both software and hardware casualties, while slower software updates saw the brand steadily slip out of favor. Analysts have also blasted the company for lack of expertise in marketing compared to Chinese rivals. While LG was the first to adopt Google's (GOOG, GOOGL) Android OS, its smartphone division has recorded nearly six years of losses totaling about $4.5B and the time had come for exit. It's not the first time this has happened. Other well-known mobile brands like BlackBerry (BB), Nokia (NOK) and HTC (OTC:HTCKF) have also tumbled from lofty heights and have worked to transform their companies away from smartphones. The future: "LG's strategic decision to exit the incredibly competitive mobile-phone sector will enable the company to focus resources in growth areas such as electric vehicle components, connected devices, smart homes, robotics, artificial intelligence and business-to-business solutions, as well as platforms and services," the company said in a statement. ​ What else is happening... Data of 533M Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) users reportedly leaked online. Coinbase (COIN) set to go public in direct listing on April 14. Office REIT stocks lag market as office occupancy stays low. Hummer EV SUV from General Motors (NYSE:GM) tops $110,000. Disney Plus (NYSE:DIS) is rivaling Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in subscriber loyalty. T-Mobile's (NASDAQ:TMUS) TV bailout is not so surprising. GameStop (NYSE:GME) squeeze no longer helping most-shorted U.S. stocks. Hertz (OTCPK:HTZGQ) chooses Centerbridge-backed plan to exit bankruptcy. Seadrill (OTCQX:SDRLF) reportedly asks creditors to write off $4.8B of debt. FDA clears Supernus' (NASDAQ:SUPN) Qelbree for treatment of ADHD.​ ​ Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +0.8%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India -1.7%. In Europe, at midday, London closed. Paris closed. Frankfurt closed. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude -2.2% to $60.15. Gold -0.3% at $1723.90. Bitcoin -0.3% to $57457. Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.72% ​ Today's Economic Calendar 9:45 PMI Composite Final 10:00 ISM Service Index 10:00 Factory Orders 12:30 PM Investor Movement Index Companies reporting earnings today »​