Hey Iceman - here is some info from the paid side of the LVA website:
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Football Contests</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left> This year’s football-contest scene arrives with some significant changes, most notably, moves by the two biggest to eliminate entry fees. Station Casino’s “Great Giveaway” now offers a “no-lose guarantee”—play all 17 weeks without cashing and you get your fees back in the form of free slot play (mathematically, only a slight discount from face value). At Coasts, the “Pick the Pros” contest is just plain free this year (with only weekly prizes and a winner-take-all format). New to the party is Lucky’s sports book at the Plaza (and soon Terrible’s; see “
Gambling Notes”). This year’s biggest buy-in is again $2,500 for the South Point/El Cortez/Virgin River contest.
The listings that follow are broken down into three categories, based on how their rules affect potential players.
Entry Deadlines—The contests in this category require that you submit a ticket each week of the season, so you have to be a local or arrange for a proxy (where allowed) to get your picks in every week. You must enter these before the season begins (early-bird deadlines stated where known). Note that all return at least 100% of the entry fees.
South Point/El Cortez/Virgin River (Mesquite) “Friendly Frank’s Pro Championship Challenge”; entry $2,500; $50,000 added to split among players who hit 65%.
Las Vegas Hilton “SuperContest”; entry $1,500; $10,000 added to split among players who hit 67%; enter by 9/1 (4 pm) to qualify for a $10,000 bonus.
Station properties “The Challenge”; entry $1,000; $12,500 added for final-four-weeks mini-tournament; win a one-year Mercedes lease for hitting 67%; enter by 8/31 to get $100 in a Station “Sports Connection” betting account.
Tuscany “Gridiron Gold”; entry $250; $3,750 added in free entries for next year.
Leroy’s “Pro Challenge”; entry $250.
Leroy’s “College Challenge”; entry $250.
Station properties “Last Man Standing”; entry $25; buy four and get one free; winner-take-all.
Late Entry Allowed—The contests in this category can be entered at any time of the year, but equity is almost certainly negative for a single-week play. Hence, visitors should ignore these. And since they have fixed full-season prize pools, equity depends on the number of entrants. Opportunities arise in contests that don’t get enough entries to cover guarantees.
Station properties “Great Giveaway”; entry $25; buy two and get one free; $1.4 million guarantee ($1 million last year); money back in slot play if you play 17 weeks without winning a prize.
Palms “Pigskin Payoff”; entry $25; buy three and get three free; $300,000 guarantee.
Tuscany (Cal-Neva contest) “Pro Pick-em”; entry $25 ($35 includes “College Pick-em”); entry drops to $20 in Oct., $15 in Nov., and $10 in Dec.; free $5 parlay card with each entry until weekend of Sept. 6; $251,000 guarantee.
Tuscany (Cal-Neva contest) “College Pick-em”; entry $20 ($35 includes “Pro Pick-em”); free $5 parlay card with each entry until weekend of Sept. 6; $60,000 guarantee.
Cannery/Eastside Cannery/Rampart “Fantasy Contest”; entry $25 (buy two and get third free if you enter by 8/31); $125,000 guarantee ($120,000 last year).
Free—These contests have no entry fees, making them suitable to play at any time during the season. It’s unlikely that any of these presents an outstanding opportunity in expected return, as the prizes are too low in comparison to the number of players who enter. Plus, all are winner-take-all formats, making it unlikely that you’ll cash. But free is free—having an entry means you’re in action and if lightning strikes, it’s a big payday.
Coast properties (also Sam’s Town, California, Fremont, Eldorado, and Joker’s Wild) “Pick the Pros”; three free entries each week; $30,000 per week.
Fiesta Rancho and Henderson “Football Frenzy”; one free entry each week; $10,000 per week, plus $5,000 to season winner and other cash prizes.
Lucky’s/Terrible’s (plus Primm properties); one free entry each week; $6,000 per week; must have perfect record or prize carries over.
Aside from the free contests, notable for opportunity in this list are the contest at the Cannery and the “Pick-em” contests at Tuscany. Last year we predicted that the Cannery would be undersubscribed and it was. As a result, players had an equity overlay (see
LVA 10/07, “Drawing Equity”). This is the second year for this contest, so it figures to draw better. But last year’s was a fairly big overlay, so it may happen again. At Tuscany, there are prizes for picking the “most losers” and they’re lower than the prizes for winners. This structure tends to induce a disproportionate number of players to go for winners, creating the same type of overlay for “betting to lose.” </TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>
17 Long Weeks</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left> A saying popular among former boat owners goes, “The second best day of my life was the day I bought my boat; the best day was the day I sold it.” A version of this applies to many who sign up to play these cool-sounding contests.
In a nutshell, entering a contest with a low entry fee and high upside where you can fill out tickets at your leisure and use your knowledge of a game you love sounds fantastic. And that’s why these contests have done so well over the years. But if you’re like 99% of those who play them for entertainment, you’re guaranteed to curse your decision at least once over the course of the long season.
The obvious reason is results—you enter thinking you have 17 chances to win something in a weekly, plus your shot at the overall. But with at least hundreds, and usually thousands, of players competing, you’re a big underdog to ever cash. In most cases you have no shot at a weekly prize unless you choose no more than one loser. And even when that’s enough, you figure to split the prize with other one-loser cards. The reality, though, is that you’ll probably never get to that spot, and it gets tedious. Eventually, you get to the point where you’re out of contention for the year-end prize and it takes a lot of discipline to keep going for the weeklies (many drop out, so weeklies become more valuable near the end of the season).
And that’s nothing compared to the process of preparing and submitting the picks. For most it means two, and sometimes three, trips to the sponsoring casino every week—once to pick up your card, a second to submit it, and a third to check the board if you happen to have a contender (so you know what to sweat on Monday night). Yes, you can (usually) pick up, fill out, and submit the cards on one trip, but that’s neither convenient nor optimal to doing your best. And how about those great bonus entries? Buy three at the Palms, get three free. Whoopee. Now you get to fill out six of the things. Careful what you wish for here.
And a discussion of contest drawbacks wouldn’t be complete without shining a light on something we learned playing the Cannery’s “Fantasy Contest” last year. In this one you pick players and compare performances head-to-head. It sounds like a format that would heighten involvement, but unless you’re a real fantasy expert who’s tied into sources of ongoing updates on the players, this contest is almost impossible to sweat on Sundays. Really. You make your picks, then consult a sheet the following week. It’s a good tournament, but not that much fun to play. </TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>
105s</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left> This year’s -105 betting options appear to be reduced. The Hilton will once again deal -105 on Thursdays from 3 to 11 pm and the Hard Rock confirms that it will also offer -105, but hasn’t determined the times (last year was Thursdays from 10 am to 6 pm). Thus far, no others have committed. But these promotions are often unveiled late, so others may materialize. With -105 pricing, you wager $105 to win $100, rather than the standard $110/$100. </TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>
HR Parlay</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left> Here’s some good news. Last year the Hard Rock introduced an excellent free-parlay-card deal, but it wasn’t available till later in the year. This year the deal will be offered again, and it begins on week 1, so you can take advantage all year long.
The cards haven’t been released, but last year you could choose a 4-, 5-, 6-, or 7-team parlay, which yields the following payoffs, expected returns, and hit frequencies. Parlay........Pays........EV.........Freq.
4 teams.....$50.......$3.13.....1:16
5 teams.....$100.....$3.13.....1:32
6 teams.....$210.....$3.28.....1:64
7 teams.....$395.....$3.09.....1:128 As you can see, your expected profit (“EV”) is a little more than $3 per play and you can make a decent score when you hit. The drawback is that you’ll hit a 4-teamer only once in 16 tries (and the others less frequently). Even though the highest EV is for playing six teams, you don’t give up much in expected win with the 4-teamer and you have a much better chance to hit it. You don’t have to know a thing about handicapping, or even football, to choose your teams, but you can implement a selection technique to improve your chances. It’s basic parlay-card strategy that involves identifying “stale numbers.” You can read a detailed explanation in
LVA 10/07.
Last year you had to go to the players club booth and show (or get) your Rockstar card to get the parlay card, so expect that to be the procedure again.
Further to HR parlays, they’re making some noise about offering the best odds on cards this year. For example, they’re paying 12.5-1 on 4-teamers, compared to a 12-1 standard citywide, but we’ll reserve judgment until we compare with the perennial best parlay cards at the Plaza (or shamelessly wait for
LV Sun columnist Jeff Haney to do it).
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