The market is telling us all that real estate is toast. This isnt an opinion I have, its what we all can clearly see via the price action of the major homebuilders, banks, and most importantly mortgage insurance companies.
While I don't disagree with you, I do think you are far to pessimistic regarding real estate. Commercial real estate, retail, industrial and apartment or multi-family housing, as an investment is certainly going through an adjustment, capitalization rates are up form 2006, but not the doom and gloom you seem to be spreading. As an exapmle, I presently have a listing of a $14M asset-a business park which is receiving tremendous interest and will sell very near to that number. The buyers in this market segment are not fools, nor are they neophytes of past downturns in the real estate cycle. Apartment can be bought with nearly 10 capitalization rates which puts cash on cash, first year returns over 12% in todays interest rate environment. Foreclosed folks need to go somewhere and apartment living is the obvious and usual choice by necessity-demand will drive rents up. So, I think the real estate market is cycling down, but one must look at segments of the market and not bunch the whole into one.<!-- / message -->