If you care to make that bet relative to any increases in the aggregate money supply also being factored, you have a bet.
Otherwise, any gains are in fact not gains and very misleading which is one of the myths of past gains.
Another home price trick being played upon us common folks happens like this.
101 homes sell in a city a particular year. 100 of them are 100k homes that fall by 10% in price to 90k each. 1 house is a million dollar house that sells for 2 million. Magically, the average price is unchanged?
It seems the spin never ends and some people just dont want to acknowledge reality.
:ughhh:
Otherwise, any gains are in fact not gains and very misleading which is one of the myths of past gains.
Another home price trick being played upon us common folks happens like this.
101 homes sell in a city a particular year. 100 of them are 100k homes that fall by 10% in price to 90k each. 1 house is a million dollar house that sells for 2 million. Magically, the average price is unchanged?
It seems the spin never ends and some people just dont want to acknowledge reality.
:ughhh:
Your question about where Im going to live has nothing to do with this thread, so I didnt answer it.
Are you happy now?
I, nor does anyone else owe you an answer to any questions. Get over it.
Please stop hijacking this thread with your fucking bullshit and asking the same fucking questions multiple times.
You posted earlier in this thread you hadnt read the thread.
Stop being an asshole and read the thread if you expect answers.
I will go read the three year post now but that still does not stop you from answering what you would do right this second questions...
No answers huh. Stumped the daddy? You have no practical answers so resort to this stupidity. You dont owe answers? You have been answering every other question but practical real life questions you dont want to answer.
Its what i figured go on with the market is going to collapse. I agree with you but how bout some ideas,thoughts,etc since you seemingly know so much.
How can me asking these questions be a hijacking???
no one looks at average, median is almost always used. I honestly don't think I have ever seen "average" home price used. Housing prices aren't going anywhere but up where I live, I imagine that to be the case in the 3 other major areas in california as well (SD, LA and OC). While activity may be down, median price increased in the Bay Area last quarter.
Areas with over building and where speculation was/is great are going to be the areas that get hammered. I tend to agree with WC, if the price of my house drops 30% (it is up ~15% in 3 years since we purchased it), I am not going anywhere. What the hell am I going to do? Sell for a massive loss? Give it back to the bank and move into an apartment/rented house (which is likely to be a similar house in which I am currently living)? However, that will never happen. The places that will be foreclosed will be those that can't afford their place to begin with (WVU, people around here do by $500k houses on <$100k incomes. How, I do not know, but they do) and those that speculated. All of that being said, f/c are waaaaaay up in California over last year and prices have continued to rise (second article below)
Bay Area home sales still slow, prices up
<!--by Real Estate Analyst John Karevoll
--> July 18, 2007
La Jolla, CA.----Bay Area homes continued to sell at their slowest pace in 12 years last month, led by sharp declines in many lower-cost neighborhoods. At the same time, sales tended to fare much better in higher-priced areas, which helped push the region's overall median sale price to a new peak, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 7,964 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in June. That was down 1.4 percent from 8,080 in May, and down 26.5 percent from 10,830 for June a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 29 months. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any June since 7,780 homes were sold in 1995. The strongest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, was in 2004 when 15,735 homes were sold. The June average is 10,546.
"Obviously there's still a bit of a standoff between buyers and sellers. It looks like unsuccessful sellers would rather take the home off the market than bring the price down, which is remarkable after almost two-and-a-half years of sales declines. Mainly, the price adjustments we're seeing are in more affordable outlying parts of the Bay Area, and those adjustments aren't all that significant except for Solano County," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
The median price paid for a Bay Area home increased last month to $665,000, a new peak. That was up 0.8 percent from $660,000 for the month before, and up 2.6 percent from $648,000 for June last year.
The median declined in Solano, Sonoma and Napa, the three most affordable Bay Area counties, while it increased in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties, the three most expensive.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Due to late data availability, the June statistics for Alameda are extrapolated from the first three weeks of the month.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $3,219 last month, up from $3,090 the previous month, and up from $3,203 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 24.0 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 2.3 percent below the current cycle's peak one year ago.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages has declined significantly. Foreclosure activity is rising, although foreclosure properties are not yet a drag home on home values in most markets. Down payment sizes are stable, flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down, DataQuick reported.
<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"> <td> All Homes </td> <td> No Sold
Jun-06</td> <td> No Sold
Jun-07</td> <td> Pct.
Chg</td> <td> Median
Jun-06</td> <td> Median
Jun-07</td> <td> Pct.
Chg</td> </tr><tr> <td>Alameda</td> <td>2,198</td> <td>1,536</td> <td>-30.1%</td> <td>$600,000</td> <td>$605,000</td> <td>0.8%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Contra Costa</td> <td>2,102</td> <td>1,413</td> <td>-32.8%</td> <td>$599,000</td> <td>$597,000</td> <td>-0.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Marin</td> <td>453</td> <td>350</td> <td>-22.7%</td> <td>$830,000</td> <td>$961,250</td> <td>15.8%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Napa</td> <td>195</td> <td>128</td> <td>-34.4%</td> <td>$680,500</td> <td>$577,000</td> <td>-15.2%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Clara</td> <td>2,763</td> <td>2,163</td> <td>-21.7%</td> <td>$681,000</td> <td>$699,000</td> <td>2.6%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> San Francisco</td> <td>705</td> <td>633</td> <td>-10.2%</td> <td>$790,000</td> <td>$825,000</td> <td>4.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Mateo</td> <td>906</td> <td>755</td> <td>-16.7%</td> <td>$770,000</td> <td>$795,000</td> <td>3.2%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Solano</td> <td>773</td> <td>453</td> <td>-41.4%</td> <td>$475,000</td> <td>$419,500</td> <td>-11.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sonoma</td> <td>735</td> <td>533</td> <td>-27.5%</td> <td>$580,000</td> <td>$532,500</td> <td>-8.2%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Bay Area</td> <td>10,830</td> <td>7,964</td> <td>-26.5%</td> <td>$648,000</td> <td>$665,000</td> <td>2.6%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Source: DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
Media calls: Andrew LePage (916)456-7157
or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534
California Foreclosure Activity Continues to Rise
<!--by Real Estate Analyst John Karevoll
--> July 24, 2007
La Jolla, CA.--Lenders sent California homeowners the highest number of mortgage default notices in over a decade last quarter, the result of flat or falling prices, anemic sales and a market struggling with the excesses of the 2004-2005 home buying frenzy, a real estate information service reported.
Lenders filed 53,943 Notices of Default (NoDs) during the April-through-June period. That was up 15.4 percent from 46,760 for the previous quarter, and up 158.0 percent from 20,909 for second-quarter 2006, according to DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla.
Last quarter's default level was the highest since 54,045 NoDs were recorded statewide in fourth-quarter 1996. Defaults peaked in first-quarter 1996 at 61,541. A low of 12,417 was reached in third-quarter 2004. An average of 34,172 NoDs have been filed quarterly since 1992, when DataQuick's NoD statistics begin.
"A lot of the loans that went bad last quarter were made at or just beyond the cycle's peak, between summer '05 and summer '06. Appreciation rates for most of that period were in the double digits and lenders let many households stretch their finances to the max, and beyond. It's that pool of 'beyond' mortgages that the market is working its way through," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick's president.
Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between July 2005 and August 2006. The median age was 16 months. Loan originations peaked in August 2005. The use of adjustable-rate mortgages for primary purchase home loans peaked at 77.8% in May 2005 and has since fallen.
Because a residence may be financed with multiple loans, last quarter's 53,943 default notices were recorded on 50,901 different residences, up 162.8 percent from 19,370 for second quarter 2006.
On primary mortgages statewide, homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender started the default process. The borrowers owed a median $11,126 on a median $342,000 mortgage.
On lines of credit, homeowners were a median eight months behind on their payments. Borrowers owed a median $3,457 on a median $67,121 credit line. However the amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. DataQuick provides online access to property information, including default notices. Notices of Default are recorded at county recorders offices and mark the first step of the formal foreclosure process. Due to late data availability, statistics for Alameda County are extrapolated.
The default numbers reflect wide regional differences. The second-quarter numbers were a record in Riverside, Contra Costa, Sacramento and most Central Valley counties. In Los Angeles County it was still less than half the first-quarter 1996 peak, reflecting the depth of the recession in the mid-1990s, as well as the relative strength of today's housing market.
On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in San Joaquin, Merced and Riverside counties.
The median price paid for a California home purchased between July 2005 and August 2006 was $460,000. Of those homes, the median price paid for those that went into default last quarter was $445,500, mostly because of low default rates at the high end.
Roughly half, 54.6 percent, of the homeowners in default emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was 88.0 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing. In selling a home, all loans must be paid off, which is not the case in the formal foreclosure process, where second mortgages and lines of credit are most often written off.
Notices of Default
houses and condos
<table valign="top" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"> <td> County/Region</td> <td>2006Q2</td> <td>2007Q2</td> <td>%Chg</td> </tr><tr> <td>Los Angeles</td> <td align="right">4,586</td> <td align="right">10,393</td> <td align="right">126.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Orange</td> <td align="right">1,255</td> <td align="right">2,984</td> <td align="right">137.8%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Diego</td> <td align="right">1,778</td> <td align="right">4,383</td> <td align="right">146.5%</td> </tr><tr><td> Riverside</td> <td align="right">2,287</td> <td align="right">6,648</td> <td align="right">190.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Bernardino</td> <td align="right">1,839</td> <td align="right">5,141</td> <td align="right">179.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Ventura</td> <td align="right">452</td> <td align="right">1,059</td> <td align="right">134.3%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> SoCal*</td> <td align="right">12,271</td> <td align="right">30,828</td> <td align="right">151.2%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Francisco</td> <td align="right">127</td> <td align="right">257</td> <td align="right">102.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> Alameda</td> <td align="right">649</td> <td align="right">1,612</td> <td align="right">148.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> Contra Costa</td> <td align="right">725</td> <td align="right">2,316</td> <td align="right">219.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Clara</td> <td align="right">530</td> <td align="right">1,275</td> <td align="right">140.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Mateo</td> <td align="right">222</td> <td align="right">463</td> <td align="right">108.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Marin</td> <td align="right">58</td> <td align="right">118</td> <td align="right">103.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> Solano</td> <td align="right">350</td> <td align="right">1,065</td> <td align="right">204.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sonoma</td> <td align="right">202</td> <td align="right">462</td> <td align="right">128.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Napa</td> <td align="right">47</td> <td align="right">128</td> <td align="right">172.3%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Bay Area</td> <td align="right">2,910</td> <td align="right">7,696</td> <td align="right">164.5%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Cruz</td> <td align="right">73</td> <td align="right">155</td> <td align="right">112.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Barbara</td> <td align="right">147</td> <td align="right">434</td> <td align="right">195.2%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Luis Obisp</td> <td align="right">79</td> <td align="right">208</td> <td align="right">163.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Monterey</td> <td align="right">128</td> <td align="right">483</td> <td align="right">277.3%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Coast</td> <td align="right">427</td> <td align="right">1,280</td> <td align="right">199.8%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sacramento</td> <td align="right">1,352</td> <td align="right">3,840</td> <td align="right">184.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Joaquin</td> <td align="right">604</td> <td align="right">1,983</td> <td align="right">228.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Placer</td> <td align="right">276</td> <td align="right">627</td> <td align="right">127.2%</td> </tr><tr><td> Kern</td> <td align="right">549</td> <td align="right">1,593</td> <td align="right">190.2%</td> </tr><tr><td> Fresno</td> <td align="right">590</td> <td align="right">1,380</td> <td align="right">133.9%</td> </tr><tr><td> Madera</td> <td align="right">92</td> <td align="right">215</td> <td align="right">133.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Merced</td> <td align="right">214</td> <td align="right">642</td> <td align="right">200.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Tulare</td> <td align="right">258</td> <td align="right">428</td> <td align="right">65.9%</td> </tr><tr><td> Yolo</td> <td align="right">77</td> <td align="right">232</td> <td align="right">201.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> El Dorado</td> <td align="right">86</td> <td align="right">222</td> <td align="right">158.1%</td> </tr><tr><td> Stanislaus</td> <td align="right">407</td> <td align="right">1,286</td> <td align="right">216.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Kings</td> <td align="right">50</td> <td align="right">75</td> <td align="right">50.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Benito</td> <td align="right">33</td> <td align="right">122</td> <td align="right">269.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Yuba</td> <td align="right">45</td> <td align="right">171</td> <td align="right">280.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Colusa</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">39</td> <td align="right">178.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sutter</td> <td align="right">56</td> <td align="right">109</td> <td align="right">94.6%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Central Valley</td> <td align="right">4,703</td> <td align="right">12,964</td> <td align="right">175.7%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Mountains*</td> <td align="right">155</td> <td align="right">328</td> <td align="right">111.6%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> North Calif*</td> <td align="right">443</td> <td align="right">847</td> <td align="right">91.2%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Statewide</td> <td align="right">20,909</td> <td align="right">53,943</td> <td align="right">158.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> * includes additional counties </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 17,408 during the second quarter. That is the highest number in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. That was up 57.8 percent from 11,032 for the previous quarter, and up 799.2 percent from 1,936 for last year’s second quarter. The prior peak of foreclosure sales was 15,418 in third-quarter 1996, the low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.
There are 8.4 million houses and condos in the state.
While foreclosures tugged property values down by almost 10 percent in some areas eleven years ago, their effect in most markets today is still negligible. However, the continued rise in NoDs means that the number of homes lost to foreclosure will continue to increase in the second half of this year. Foreclosure levels are already high in certain Inland Empire and Central Valley markets, where the worst-hit neighborhoods might already be seeing property values eroded somewhat by foreclosures, DataQuick reported.
Recorded Trustees Deeds
houses and condos
<table valign="top" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"> <td> County/Region</td> <td>2006Q2</td> <td>2007Q2</td> <td>%Chg</td> </tr><tr> <td>Los Angeles</td> <td align="right">287</td> <td align="right">2,581</td> <td align="right">799.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Orange</td> <td align="right">110</td> <td align="right">821</td> <td align="right">646.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Diego</td> <td align="right">292</td> <td align="right">1,714</td> <td align="right">487.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Riverside</td> <td align="right">281</td> <td align="right">2,509</td> <td align="right">792.9%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Bernardino</td> <td align="right">137</td> <td align="right">1,489</td> <td align="right">986.9%</td> </tr><tr><td> Ventura</td> <td align="right">37</td> <td align="right">316</td> <td align="right">754.1%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> SoCal Total*</td> <td align="right">1,152</td> <td align="right">9,504</td> <td align="right">725.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Francisco</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">49</td> <td align="right">444.4%</td> </tr><tr><td> Alameda</td> <td align="right">69</td> <td align="right">480</td> <td align="right">595.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Contra Costa</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td align="right">778</td> <td align="right">1154.8%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Clara</td> <td align="right">38</td> <td align="right">256</td> <td align="right">573.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Mateo</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">97</td> <td align="right">470.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Marin</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td align="right">316.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Solano</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td align="right">324</td> <td align="right">800.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sonoma</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">163</td> <td align="right">805.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Napa</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">34</td> <td align="right">1033.3%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Bay Area Total</td> <td align="right">258</td> <td align="right">2,206</td> <td align="right">755.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Cruz</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">46</td> <td align="right">253.8%</td> </tr><tr><td> Santa Barbara</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">137</td> <td align="right">756.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Luis Obispo</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td align="right">52</td> <td align="right">1200.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Monterey</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">154</td> <td align="right">1825.0%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Coast Total</td> <td align="right">41</td> <td align="right">389</td> <td align="right">848.8%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sacramento</td> <td align="right">175</td> <td align="right">1,662</td> <td align="right">849.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Joaquin</td> <td align="right">64</td> <td align="right">785</td> <td align="right">1126.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Placer</td> <td align="right">29</td> <td align="right">220</td> <td align="right">658.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Kern</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td align="right">533</td> <td align="right">2032.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Fresno</td> <td align="right">40</td> <td align="right">402</td> <td align="right">905.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Madera</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td align="right">55</td> <td align="right">816.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> Merced</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">240</td> <td align="right">3328.6%</td> </tr><tr><td> Tulare</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">142</td> <td align="right">735.3%</td> </tr><tr><td> Yolo</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td align="right">103</td> <td align="right">10200.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> El Dorado</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td align="right">89</td> <td align="right">2125.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Stanislaus</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td align="right">522</td> <td align="right">1350.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Kings</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">27</td> <td align="right">285.7%</td> </tr><tr><td> San Benito</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td align="right">38</td> <td align="right">660.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Yuba</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td align="right">84</td> <td align="right">2000.0%</td> </tr><tr><td> Sutter</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td align="right">57</td> <td align="right">470.0%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Central Valley Total*</td> <td align="right">430</td> <td align="right">4,969</td> <td align="right">1055.6%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Mountains*</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">90</td> <td align="right">1025.0%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> North Calif*</td> <td align="right">47</td> <td align="right">250</td> <td align="right">431.9%</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td> Statewide</td> <td align="right">1,936</td> <td align="right">17,408</td> <td align="right">799.2%</td> </tr><tr><td> * includes additional counties </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Source: DataQuick Information Systems
One of the answers and reason why this thread gets bumped is that people were warned in this thread 2 years ago. Some heeded, some didnt. Those that bought the past 2 years have most likely have already and continue to lose money.
For those living in a house with family, kids, their lives cemented in their community, stand pat. If your job is safe, the world isnt going to end. Yeah, once reality settles in that a house is a depreciating asset people probably wont be running to home depot as often as last 10-15 years.
Financially speaking, some people may be best serving theirselves via walking away from an upside down mortgage. Each situation is different of course.
However, people should not expect the value of the home to continue rising every single year. It never made much sense anyhow. The primary purpose of a single family residence is to have a place to live.
Unfortunately, too many people have turned them into atm machines via second mortgages or speculating via buying homes they never intended living in or using as rental property.
The now absence of this second mortgage money in the economy has yet to be fully realized. As jdog posted, it will be. Not only in autos, but all discretionary spending from middle/lower income homeowners.
Heading out for the evening, so TTP, any questions specifically for me will have to be answered later or tomorrow.
:howdy:
I believe the reason is that the increased cost of living does not really matter much to the mega wealthy.
In fact, the wealth gap has increased during this recent inflationary period.
$3 gasoline and $4 milk doesnt matter much to Bill Gates or Oprah Winfrey, but it does matter to Mr & Mrs Joe and Jane Smith with 60k income trying to raise 3 kids and manage a household.
People should be and will be walking away. It makes sense for a lot of people to do it....Many are coming to this conclusion finally. http://video.google.com/videoplay?d...l=2&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
One of the other things I think people are missing in this thread is that these companies are simply going to stop loaning to most people. The loan impairment charges that HSBC just took on their U.S. loans was enormous. Your credit better be sterling if you want a decent loan. That cheap money post 9/11 was inexcusable but Greenspan wanted to "come to the rescue."
ARMs are still getting reset.
The other thing people point to simply is prices. They feel prices are not dropping off a cliff (in some spots they are) and that things will just sort of sit where they are. Here's the problem with that: Many of the prices new homes(especially) are going for are inflated simply because all the incentives in the house aren't figured in. So that 400k house that got 50k worth of upgrades from the builder will look like it sold for 400k, not 350k.
Another thing, prices take time to come down b/c its an inventory build. So people are holding firm to their prices and waiting for someone to come along and pay it. (There are parts of the country where this works--NYC for example but realize much of that is driven by the unreal Wall Street bonuses of the past 4 years---if the market went belly up, that money pool would as well)...
In the end you will get more inventory, both new existing combined with a lower pool of people trying to get housing due to loan restrictions....If Bernanke tries to save the housing market and cuts interest rates he will further kill the U.S. dollar which will have lasting repercussions. I'm of the opinion he should have been raising them this year to defend the dollar. Housing is not his mandate, inflation is. And a worthless dollar is a quick way to inflation.
ARMs are still getting reset.
The other thing people point to simply is prices. They feel prices are not dropping off a cliff (in some spots they are) and that things will just sort of sit where they are. Here's the problem with that: Many of the prices new homes(especially) are going for are inflated simply because all the incentives in the house aren't figured in. So that 400k house that got 50k worth of upgrades from the builder will look like it sold for 400k, not 350k.
Another thing, prices take time to come down b/c its an inventory build. So people are holding firm to their prices and waiting for someone to come along and pay it. (There are parts of the country where this works--NYC for example but realize much of that is driven by the unreal Wall Street bonuses of the past 4 years---if the market went belly up, that money pool would as well)...
In the end you will get more inventory, both new existing combined with a lower pool of people trying to get housing due to loan restrictions....If Bernanke tries to save the housing market and cuts interest rates he will further kill the U.S. dollar which will have lasting repercussions. I'm of the opinion he should have been raising them this year to defend the dollar. Housing is not his mandate, inflation is. And a worthless dollar is a quick way to inflation.
The cvnt has been doing exactly that!
Here in Macau and HK the local currency has been fully pegged to the US$, so even though I wish I had nothing to do with it, I am fvcked.
Surely the increase in prices has FINALLY come to a halt here in Asia too, but I am waiting for a 1997er (a crash). It does not seem to happen.
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07-25-2006, 03:21 PM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; font-weight: normal;" align="right"> #115 </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td class="alt2" style="border-style: none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130); border-width: 0px 1px;" width="175"> Clip Joint <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_3046281", true); </script>
LA Clippers Junkie
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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse
Clip, how would you feel if your home declined by 30%? The 200,000 grand your up would evaporate. Sell it and rent and wait for armageddon in the market. My free advice to you....And I know nothing, yes, but I do have a feeling here.
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A year later...still climbing...:toast:
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:nopityA:
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall........
07-25-2006, 03:21 PM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; font-weight: normal;" align="right"> #115 </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td class="alt2" style="border-style: none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130); border-width: 0px 1px;" width="175"> Clip Joint <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_3046281", true); </script>
LA Clippers Junkie
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Posts: 11,370
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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by Vaulted Treehouse
Clip, how would you feel if your home declined by 30%? The 200,000 grand your up would evaporate. Sell it and rent and wait for armageddon in the market. My free advice to you....And I know nothing, yes, but I do have a feeling here.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
A year later...still climbing...:toast:
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Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall........
peace of mind, settling a family, security, harmony etc etc etc, worth so much more than fiat money.
congrats on your decision. fuck the market, find a home you love and live in it til death. moving is one of the most traumatic experiences in life, psychologists say it is like a crisis to our minds
selling a home you love and your kids love so you can trade the real estate market is idiotic.
do that if you have investment homes sure, but your primary residence? fucking stupid
and think you can just get another mortgage in this era you are dreaming, they are turning down 70% of all apps
Hey kids, pack your toys, wife pack up, we are moving to an apartment to make a profit on this home and then we will buy back when it recovers.....
SLAP
