I agree completley. Point I am getting at is I just finsihed reading a book by Tony Oz called The Stock Trader and enjoyed it. Wondering what your thoughts on him and his stlye and if you have anys suggestion on reading matieral like this. I know it might sound dumb but this is how I bet sports and find it very similar with trying to time the market.
This is getting off topic, but I dont think there is a single way to trade.
Same with real estate. Im sure there will be some people that will make great fortunes from real esate collapsing.
Kinda like my cousin that had his own car repo business during early 1980s. He made alot of money doing that while everyone else was getting buried by the recession.
I think some of you guys are on the right track with the ideas about buying foreclosures, but the market hasnt showed signs of a true bottom yet, so your timing is still early.
Same with real estate. Im sure there will be some people that will make great fortunes from real esate collapsing.
Kinda like my cousin that had his own car repo business during early 1980s. He made alot of money doing that while everyone else was getting buried by the recession.
I think some of you guys are on the right track with the ideas about buying foreclosures, but the market hasnt showed signs of a true bottom yet, so your timing is still early.
Dawoof, points well taken. However, real estate returns that are financially sound, such as cap rates over 10% and leveraged IRR's that exceed 18% are very capable of riding out the downturn we are in-cash flow is cash flow after all. Here in LA, I have witnessed the doubling or family living you speak of as I appraise real estate, guess what, the occupancy in LA city for apartments still exceeds 95% by verified registered water meters and the Sourthen California Research Council-what does that say about demand. People are not just going to quit living because of this ill-advised residential housing market that bubbled by investors and flippers. Cost are not going to come down, you think board and nail or labor wages are going to decline-not any time soon. Yes, cost is one thing, value is another and price is also another concept, but over the long haul, real estate will always be there and solid investments will pay off. History shows that homes in the 60's were selling for $19,000, yes they fluctuated over the years, but at the very minimum they stayed up with inflation-which is the real buying power of the dollar-weak or otherwise.
Cheapseats, I know carpenters, painters, and carpet layers here that are working for alot less money today than they were making just a couple years ago.
If there isnt much work to go around, they will either work for less or sit at home until their bellies start growling.
poster fivedoorsdown works in the building trades and we chat off this forum. ask him how his work has been during 2007.
I always appreciate reading whats going on all over the nation. I have a cousins selling real estate and they tell me they are still doing deals, but sellers are having to reduce prices to find buyers.
Other people I know living in florida with property for sale are telling me the real estate in tampa/clearwater has completely slowed down...not even a single looker in several weeks.
If there isnt much work to go around, they will either work for less or sit at home until their bellies start growling.
poster fivedoorsdown works in the building trades and we chat off this forum. ask him how his work has been during 2007.
I always appreciate reading whats going on all over the nation. I have a cousins selling real estate and they tell me they are still doing deals, but sellers are having to reduce prices to find buyers.
Other people I know living in florida with property for sale are telling me the real estate in tampa/clearwater has completely slowed down...not even a single looker in several weeks.
I agree with 99.9% of what daw has to say
RE goes in appx 7 year cycles. The peak was 2005. Do the math
one thing RE has going for it that no other type of investment has is the power of HUGE leverage. Of course that works the other way too as many sheep are finding out now.
like pops69 used to say keep yer powder dry, unless the whole fucking thing comes crashing down. Gold is in absolute MUST for insurance.
RE goes in appx 7 year cycles. The peak was 2005. Do the math
one thing RE has going for it that no other type of investment has is the power of HUGE leverage. Of course that works the other way too as many sheep are finding out now.
like pops69 used to say keep yer powder dry, unless the whole fucking thing comes crashing down. Gold is in absolute MUST for insurance.
I am sure what we see here in Michigan is almost the same as Ohio (sure you dont like the compairisions being a Buckeye).
This summer/spring I bought a home for $230k thinking the market was about as low as it could go. I had been looking feverishly for years and got to know the market up and down in my area. These homes I went thru were priced 25k more just 2 years earlier. I was so excited to hear that my home was bought for the exact same amount 5 years earlier and they add 30k for a basement for an elderly person. i jumped all over it.
Not a day goes by where I wished I wouldn't have waited. Homes in my suburban new neighborhood are going up for sale everyday and the neighbors I have talked to are frieghtend to death and claim they cant even get anyone to walk thru them. My agent said either we need buyers to all of sudden come back or sellers to drop prices dramatically and guess who will break first?
Every once in while I look at the home for sale sites in my area and am astounded in the drop in prices, just in the past 6 months.
Look at the bright side from what I read most RE markets go in 7 year cycles or so (I maybe wrong but somewhere like that) and there will be deals in a few years and for us thirtysomething's this could be a great investment at age 40 to sell at age 60 or so for retirement.
Since RE is a slow moving investment the upward cycle isnt hard to time you would think, if people have the guts to get back in it in a few years.
This summer/spring I bought a home for $230k thinking the market was about as low as it could go. I had been looking feverishly for years and got to know the market up and down in my area. These homes I went thru were priced 25k more just 2 years earlier. I was so excited to hear that my home was bought for the exact same amount 5 years earlier and they add 30k for a basement for an elderly person. i jumped all over it.
Not a day goes by where I wished I wouldn't have waited. Homes in my suburban new neighborhood are going up for sale everyday and the neighbors I have talked to are frieghtend to death and claim they cant even get anyone to walk thru them. My agent said either we need buyers to all of sudden come back or sellers to drop prices dramatically and guess who will break first?
Every once in while I look at the home for sale sites in my area and am astounded in the drop in prices, just in the past 6 months.
Look at the bright side from what I read most RE markets go in 7 year cycles or so (I maybe wrong but somewhere like that) and there will be deals in a few years and for us thirtysomething's this could be a great investment at age 40 to sell at age 60 or so for retirement.
Since RE is a slow moving investment the upward cycle isnt hard to time you would think, if people have the guts to get back in it in a few years.
I just bought a house in central Florida on the east coast for $130,000 in a short sale. Its a 3-2-2 and about 1700 sq. feet under air. The people that lived there owed 196K on the house. I'm pretty happy about it because while I realize we aren't at the bottom of the crash yet I actually bought this house for less than it sold for before the market went crazy.
I doubt the bottom will be before 2012 since the market was artificially inflated and propped up for too long when it should have been falling.
Agree with your thoughts about leverage. It works both ways.
If someone used 100k of their own money and borrowed 400k to buy a 500k house, and that house is now 400k, their house did not drop 20%, THEIR investment dropped 100%.
Ron Paul will be speaking on cnbc larry kudlow show in a minute or so. Going to discuss how he dogged Bernanke this morning.
dawoof, I am seriously considering insuring my investments with gold and silver like you have suggested. The 10% that I do not have in real estate was supposed to pay for my living expenses and all my notes for 5 years or so.
If I bought Gold I could easily sell it if I need to. I own at least 20% of all my properties at today's market prices. One property is paid off completely. I also have one that will most likely get bought out by the county because of the increased noise due to the expansion of the south runway at Ft Lauderdale Airport.
If I bought Gold I could easily sell it if I need to. I own at least 20% of all my properties at today's market prices. One property is paid off completely. I also have one that will most likely get bought out by the county because of the increased noise due to the expansion of the south runway at Ft Lauderdale Airport.
I personally believe that the housing downturn we've seen thus far is only the beginning of what will be later looked upon as a decade or more bear market and one of the most spectacular financial crashes in world history.
This real estate crash is happening before our eyes as most still only believe its nothing more than normal market fluctuations.
Commercial property will be the next sector to be smashed and it will fall further and faster than residential, for it doesnt have fundamentals to prevent it from crashing as some residential property has.
Stay tuned.
:drink:
This real estate crash is happening before our eyes as most still only believe its nothing more than normal market fluctuations.
Commercial property will be the next sector to be smashed and it will fall further and faster than residential, for it doesnt have fundamentals to prevent it from crashing as some residential property has.
Stay tuned.
:drink:
The government is in a panic mode.........and rightfully so.
This fiasco is worse than you and I even realize............
My buddy here in FL. had his home up for sale at 245,000 9 months ago...........you can gladly take it off his hands now for less than 165,000 and not only would he be doing backflips, he would cream his jeans instantly.
