I have just had the best baseball month of my life- here is how

[Iceman]

You cant just play against line moves and think your gonna come out on top, because you believe your on the same side as the casino. Hate to burst everybodys bubble, but the books do a wonderful job of hiding the moves and disguising what they really need. You can sit around and watch all the don best line move screens all you want, but in the end its gonna work out to roughly 50-50 when the smoke clears. Topics like this have been talked about over and over again all over the net, with no lasting results.
Only way lines moves will help you, is if you know somebody at the big shops, who can actually tell you where and who is placing the cash. The books get a hard on when they hear about bettors trying to watch line moves, because they know they are distracting you from the real way of trying to pick winners and that is old fashioned capping.
There is no magic system that is gonna make us all rich, if there was the books would have been out of business long ago. They got everything figured out and covered on their end.

beleive what you want but I have been told and shown (in hoops) how guys have won with ZERO capping involved. Do you think the books are sitting there going "Oh we are going to move this to try and fool people". Pinny's lines are moved by $$ not trying to fool players. They are trying to lock in profits.

Nobody ever said this was a magic system. I GUARANTEE you I put in more time a day than some guy that crams numbers and tries to handicap this. This all about hard work.

Value is value. How you come up with it can be many different ways. I am not saying this is the only way or the best way. I am saying this is how I have won all year, in 2 different sports and 95% of the people are losing (I know I was one of them). It's math. After a thousand bets if you are winning an extra nickel, it will add up. Capping is so overrated. Show me a guy that thinks he knows anymore than the books and I will most likely show you a loser.

In a way when you cap you are looking for good prices for what you think the percentage chances of a tem winning. This method is the same way.
Go over to fezziksplace.com and look at his fezzdaq. No capping and all betting bad "square" numbers has ran a bankroll from 1k to 4k. Once again NO CAPPING.

Here is a project for you during hoops:
Scalp for 3 months. Square book versus sharp book and I guarantee you you will lose to the sharp book all day long.

 

[EagleEye+]

CD, Ice and Texas, thanks for the replies so far. I would add a couple of things. Just over a year ago at another site there was a guy who called himself VegasWiseGuy. He stated that he worked at a Casino in Vegas for about 15 years. He also stated that Vegas considered it a good year if they only lost about 1% or maybe a little more during the baseball season.

Now think about that. This means that in baseball, the public wins. Well, if the public wins, and if the public bets on favorites, then that is where the value is.

Our programs tell us that betting dogs is a dangerous proposition. I am not suggesting that eveyone quit trying to find good dogs, but that they look at the favories a little more.

One of my clients once told me that he didn't understand how I could make money playing favorites. Hey, it's a great question. I didn't think it was possible until Mama Bird, my wife, actually started playing with the numbers. It's like anything else, it depends on what you search for.

We have run data against our database and have found that the public does well at home and is crap on the road, especially road favorites. Of course, these are all general statements and should be used in conjunction with other supporting data.

OLD SCHOOL, just got your post as I was writing this. Thanks for clearing up a few things and I value anyone's input who has been doing this longer than I. You have some great ideas and thanks for sharing. It did not go unnoticed and is appreciated.

Hey, maybe we can put our heads together and come away with a few buck......

GLTA,
Eagle

Hey, I could talk forever about this stuff as I find it very interesting, but I'll shat up and see what others have to say. Thanks for responding so quickly to my post and questions.

GLTA,
Eagle

 

[EagleEye+]

Ice, I agree with you....Capping is overrated. I only use capping as a tool to justify what I'm looking for. I've had some great runs over the past two years, at one point going something like 25-4 in basketball. And 95% of that run was based on betting against the public and with the books.

You are 100% right. If one tries to scalp, they will consistantly lose at the stronger book.

Personally, I think betting against the public works better in Football and Basketball. Hockey and Baseball....well the jury is still out on those. Especially after what VegasWiseGuy told me last year.....

Keep up the good work guys and thanks again for the input....

GLTA,
Eagle

 

[oldschool]

I don't believe Pinnacle is losing money in any sport, baseball included. If someone starts to beat them, they will figure out how, and make corrections in the line.

In college basketball, when Pinnacle moved 10 points at one time, I think it indicated truely sharp money. For example, if UCLA's line was -3 -113 and Pinnacle goes to UCLA -3 -123 in one jump, I bet the sharp move with a slow book. However, Pinnacle's vig is so small, they HAVE to make a good opening line. Iceman, even in baseball, I bet against my square books when their line differs by 10 points or more from Pinnacle's (assuming it's not an anti-steam play).

If we continue to work on this, I think we will do even better. Speaking of which, iceman, I hope you will go into more detail during the college basketball season. Thanks to everyone, and good luck!

 

[EagleEye+]

OS, question. I just went back and looked at the numbers on the Braves game this evening. Please correct me if I'm wrong. About 2:30 today, Pinnacle had the Braves -160. The next update that I saw was -142. That's an 18 dollar drop. Are you suggesting that at that point the play would have been against the Braves?

Yes, I know the Braves are winning, and I'm not in any way trying to catch you in something. Hell, this just may be the exception, and all the others might hit. Just looking for some verification of what you're trying to do.

Thanks for your input,
Eagle

 

[Iceman]

I don't believe Pinnacle is losing money in any sport, baseball included. If someone starts to beat them, they will figure out how, and make corrections in the line.

In college basketball, when Pinnacle moved 10 points at one time, I think it indicated truely sharp money. For example, if UCLA's line was -3 -113 and Pinnacle goes to UCLA -3 -123 in one jump, I bet the sharp move with a slow book. However, Pinnacle's vig is so small, they HAVE to make a good opening line. Iceman, even in baseball, I bet against my square books when their line differs by 10 points or more from Pinnacle's (assuming it's not an anti-steam play).

If we continue to work on this, I think we will do even better. Speaking of which, iceman, I hope you will go into more detail during the college basketball season. Thanks to everyone, and good luck!

always willing to share. Cutter and a few others taught me the whole hoops thing. I started noticing this when I was scalping and beating the slow book almost nightly. They said quit giving it back to the sharp book and away I went.

I learned some simple to use tricks to apply on forecasting line movement. The other big thing was finding the square books. I learned more valuable tricks in 2 months of doing this than I did in 15+ years of betting. I can't wait for hoops.

More than happy to share and combine knowledge. I learned so much from these 2 forums. Some people say I may ask too many questions but beleive me it was to learn how to beat this game. I know I have a LONG way to go but this forum has helped shorten the learning curve and have a decent paying hobby.

 

[Iceman]

OS, question. I just went back and looked at the numbers on the Braves game this evening. Please correct me if I'm wrong. About 2:30 today, Pinnacle had the Braves -160. The next update that I saw was -142. That's an 18 dollar drop. Are you suggesting that at that point the play would have been against the Braves?

Yes, I know the Braves are winning, and I'm not in any way trying to catch you in something. Hell, this just may be the exception, and all the others might hit. Just looking for some verification of what you're trying to do.

Thanks for your input,
Eagle

Not trying to but in but the play was on the Braves. When you get an established -160 favorite for -133 (that's what I got), than you can't but help to win that is a value play, You want to BET Atlanta. FADE THE STEAM (bet against it)

 

[Tulsa]

edit..........

Anyone here use this way of business and see Oakland tonight!?

The things are aligning toward Oakland...anyone concur?

Thanks!

tulsa

 

[pakman1957]

Very interesting and enlightening thread guys !!! I believe you are on the right track .... with a little bit of fine tuning and tweaking of course!

Keep up the good work guys!

 

[Iceman]

edit..........

Anyone here use this way of business and see Oakland tonight!?

The things are aligning toward Oakland...anyone concur?

Thanks!

tulsa

Tulsa,
We are FADING the steam (I hope people aren't getting confused with all the other posts in here about hoops, where we are following the steam)

What I am seeing (and it is not quite a play on my end yet) is we are looking closer at LAA Angels. They opened around -116 and if it drops 10% than we are getting a -116 favorite for -105 or so (if you find that). Oakland is the one the public has been playing, we are playing against the public (in bases)

 

[Tulsa]

Thanks, Iceman!

I am either on Oakland or nothing tonight. So...given your reply, for me, it should be nothing.

Good luck on any of your plays!!!

Thanks again.

tulsa

 

[Iceman]

Thanks, Iceman!

I am either on Oakland or nothing tonight. So...given your reply, for me, it should be nothing.

Good luck on any of your plays!!!

Thanks again.

tulsa

. Jump on. Bet Houston

 

[EagleEye+]

Iceman, I hear what you're preaching and to be honest, I actually read OS's post incorrectly. He did say that if the line moved against a solid book like Pinnacle that he'd bet the value at another book. That was my bad.

Let me ask you this. You're saying that you're playing the value presented by the public betting the line down so low so the play would have been on the Braves. That makes perfect sense and that is how I made my name several moons ago, but then came baseball.

Using two things, 1) the comment from VegasWiseGuy that Vegas tries to just lose 1% on baseball and 2) Mama Birds research, I have come to the conclusion that this tactic doesn't work over the long run. Actually, we have several systems that suggest following the public.

Here is an example that is on Mama Bird's to do list for tomorrow as it needs to be updated. The last stats were from 2004 and comes straight from our database: IF 78% OR MORE OF THE PUBLIC IS ON THE HOME TEAM, AND THE LINE MOVES WITH THE PUBLIC 20 CENTS OR MORE BET WITH THE PUBLIC. LAST YEAR, 2004, THIS WOULD HAVE PRODUCED A 29-4 RECORD AND A POSITIVE $2,007.

I'm sure you can see a lot of difference here as Atlanta was on the road. I must say that our numbers support going against the public when they choose to play against a road team. We have all kinds of data to support this. And remember, all of our numbers come from Pinnacle.

GL,
Eagle

 

[Iceman]

Iceman, I hear what you're preaching and to be honest, I actually read OS's post incorrectly. He did say that if the line moved against a solid book like Pinnacle that he'd bet the value at another book. That was my bad.

Let me ask you this. You're saying that you're playing the value presented by the public betting the line down so low so the play would have been on the Braves. That makes perfect sense and that is how I made my name several moons ago, but then came baseball.

Using two things, 1) the comment from VegasWiseGuy that Vegas tries to just lose 1% on baseball and 2) Mama Birds research, I have come to the conclusion that this tactic doesn't work over the long run. Actually, we have several systems that suggest following the public.

Here is an example that is on Mama Bird's to do list for tomorrow as it needs to be updated. The last stats were from 2004 and comes straight from our database: IF 78% OR MORE OF THE PUBLIC IS ON THE HOME TEAM, AND THE LINE MOVES WITH THE PUBLIC 20 CENTS OR MORE BET WITH THE PUBLIC. LAST YEAR, 2004, THIS WOULD HAVE PRODUCED A 29-4 RECORD AND A POSITIVE $2,007.

I'm sure you can see a lot of difference here as Atlanta was on the road. I must say that our numbers support going against the public when they choose to play against a road team. We have all kinds of data to support this. And remember, all of our numbers come from Pinnacle.

GL,
Eagle

Thats great info and I will try and remember it but that is 33 plays all year. Like I have said I have followed the public (against slow moving books) in hoops and had a huge run but did the opposite(bet against public) in bases and found success.

I am averging 15 plays a nite (with runlines and totals icluded with sides). I am a big beleiver in a lot of plays, for a smaller amount. You want to churn your bankroll over many times and let your edge eventually come into play.

 

[passingthewind]

Atlanta was a good one tonight Iceman.

 

[EagleEye+]

Iceman, you are correct. We play differently. I just gave you one of our systems. We have many more systems as well. It's the nature of our business.

I would never try and talk you into playing my way. It wouldn't work. And I can' play your way. I play about 10-12 games a month and do very well. It works for me.

I can learn from you and OS and hopefully I can pass along some good info as well. I will at least try.

Thanks to everyone that has tried to help. It reall is appreciated.

GLTA,
Eagle

 

[maidenguy]

Ice, curious on how you are doing with the runline and total plays with this so far and on the total plays are you playing totals that move 15 cents or 15% off the opener. I post under whitestar at Fezz place and really like what Old School has brought to that forum.

 

[Texas-Winners]

guys i am alwasy looking for an edge like you, but these systems involving line moves are not as easy as they seem. trust me, i have tried this many times. i used to bet a system that took road dogs from +120 to +150. it is hard to keep track of these line moves and what place to use when factoring which line to use.

as i see it tonight
plays

atl
zona
seattle
houst



let me know if someone see it different.

gl
tw

 

[Iceman]

Iceman, you are correct. We play differently. I just gave you one of our systems. We have many more systems as well. It's the nature of our business.

I would never try and talk you into playing my way. It wouldn't work. And I can' play your way. I play about 10-12 games a month and do very well. It works for me.

I can learn from you and OS and hopefully I can pass along some good info as well. I will at least try.

Thanks to everyone that has tried to help. It reall is appreciated.

GLTA,
Eagle

exactly. Thanks and don't be a stranger. Let's keep this going and make some money:toast:

 

[Iceman]

Ice, curious on how you are doing with the runline and total plays with this so far and on the total plays are you playing totals that move 15 cents or 15% off the opener. I post under whitestar at Fezz place and really like what Old School has brought to that forum.

You are correct I am doing 15 CENTS for totals. 10% for sides and runlines. Sorry if I confused you. I am ahead on all the but I will have too look exactly. The thing with totals because of the 15 cent line moves I am usually getting + money at the odds that opened minus.