I have just had the best baseball month of my life- here is how

[maidenguy]

Eagle, not Ice here but I believe everything is dependant on just the line movement(nothing else). If it moves 10% or more any way, then fade the steam and bet.
ICE, do you think the 10% rule will hold up, it seems most of the 10% plays are on the -1 1/2 side so will be curious how well it does. Have most of the RL plays been on the -1 1/2 side?

 

[maidenguy]

ICE, meant to say , do you think the Runline plays will do well with this method as it seems most of the time the plays will be on the -1 1/2 side.

 

[Iceman]

Eagle and Maiden,

It is only dependent on line movement, NO PITCHERS NUMBERS involved.

As far as exact numbers. I can give you an idea for the last two weeks or so but the problem is ALL of my bets (which includes getting great numbers earlier in the day from slow moving books and some capping are mixed in with my results) are not these plays. I know for a fact the last month (since I have been paying attention) has been huge. If you need me to I can try and figure out how its done but like I said my record keeping is a tad shoddy on that end. I do have all the daily results and all bets I placed, I am just not sure under what category these bets are under.

Maiden,
yes you are right. Somewhere along the thread most people have neglected the whole runline and totals thing which I stated I have had decent success from. The thing is I am getting AS MUCH action from these areas as I am from sides and we haven't talked about them much. Totals have been a little struggle but I have raised the "parameters" on this and look for 15 cent moves from the night before and have done ok to pretty good on them. Like I said I won over 40 units with this (not betting over 1.5 units) in the last 4 weeks. I would say that is almost 50-50 runline to sides bets and rulines maybe more.

Eagle,
One thing I would love to get into with you (a database guy) is a method I tried to duplicate from a poster on another forum who is by far the most impressive at this. It involves beating the closing line in base by 10 cents or so. I have watched this player win time and time agian doing this. I guess the best way to sum it up is he bets most of bets at slow moving books on numbers that are "scalpable" with Pinny. But like I said I tried to duplicate this method for almost 3 months and lost about 30 units (which wasn't bad) Bascically when it was said and done he beat the Pinny closing line with a number (most always dogs) that was scalpable from a slow book. For example if Toronto -135/+127 at Pinny he would bet the dog at a "square book" +135 higher,if he could find it. He also did this with rl and totals. Not sure how hard this would be to backtest but much like hoops he beat the closing line and won and did it time and time again, it was amazing.

 

[EagleEye+]

Iceman, It has never been my intention to advertise here and I won't start now. It looks like you've been around for a long time here, so you should know how to get my email or even better, my phone number. You are more than welcome to give me a call. In fact, I would like that very much.......I only say it this way because I don't know the rules about posting email addresses or phone numbers and I don't want to do anything to anger anyone.....

Eagle

 

[Iceman]

Iceman, It has never been my intention to advertise here and I won't start now. It looks like you've been around for a long time here, so you should know how to get my email or even better, my phone number. You are more than welcome to give me a call. In fact, I would like that very much.......I only say it this way because I don't know the rules about posting email addresses or phone numbers and I don't want to do anything to anger anyone.....

Eagle

Eagle,
I would love to talk to you about this and some other things. Does Wil have your e-mail? He has mine and you can e-mail me or I would like him to give me your e-mail if he has it.

Hopefully I can get a hold of you some time tomorrow. Thanks for taking interest in this. You won't find many that want to learn about all this as much as myself.

I am sure we can get alot more accompolished if we talk.

 

[EagleEye+]

Iceman, I don't knkow a "Wil". If you click on my name, on the left hand side, you will get my personal data. In there is my website and my website has my phone number. I guess it's OK to say this. If not, please let me know and I'll delete it, or a moderator can delete it.......
Eagle

 

[Iceman]

Iceman, I don't knkow a "Wil". If you click on my name, on the left hand side, you will get my personal data. In there is my website and my website has my phone number. I guess it's OK to say this. If not, please let me know and I'll delete it, or a moderator can delete it.......
Eagle

got it. Oh no I didn't know you were a tout (LOL). I am just kidding, you seem like a really good guy.

I am kind of tired tonite(want to be alert when I talk to you) but if it is ok, I will give you a ring tomorrow afternoon or so if you don't mind.

 

[EagleEye+]

Iceman, Give me a call whenever you want. I have a few questions too....So I'm a tout....My mommy didn't tell me that. Well, at least you know why I didn't want to advertise it here. Someone just told me about this link and it looked like something I needed to check out. Just to make sure that nobody gets mad, I'll go back and edit the post to remove any comments about my contact information......Thanks for being understanding....

GLTA,
Eagle

 

[Iceman]

Iceman, Give me a call whenever you want. I have a few questions too....So I'm a tout....My mommy didn't tell me that. Well, at least you know why I didn't want to advertise it here. Someone just told me about this link and it looked like something I needed to check out. Just to make sure that nobody gets mad, I'll go back and edit the post to remove any comments about my contact information......Thanks for being understanding....

GLTA,
Eagle

Tout or no tout, I am just playing with you. Still very interested in talking with you. You have come across very professional and have not pushed anything on me or anyone else for that matter, at all in this thread. If anything you have been extremly helpful.

Very excitied to talk with you tomorrow, thanks.

 

[acez29]

Iceman, question for you.

When you are looking at 15% moves on totals, does a jump from O/U 9 to 9.5 affect your play?

Here are some examples:

Opening line: 9u -110 9o +100
Steam line: 9u +110 9o -120
In this case, 9o has steamed by 20 points (more than 15%) so the correct play would be 9u (+110), correct?


2nd example:
Opening line: 9u -110 9o +100
Steam line: 9.5u -110 9.5o +100
In this case, 9o got hammered even more than the first example, which caused the book to bump up the total to 8.5. Would the correct play here be 9.5u (-110)?

Of note: In the above examples, when I say "opening line" I mean the "hashed out" opening line after the sharps have thrown money at it...

 

[docslep]

the "system" went 0-2 last nite, 0-4 if you used wagerline #'s. i'm not betting them, just tracking them.

this is kinda opposite what i've been doing my whole betting life. i always bet against the line movement,assuming that would be the direction of the sharp movement. especially if the public is on the other side. this "system" makes no sense to me.
i'll watch some more but will tread lightly.wdyt?

 

[docslep]

for example, the line in cleveland game is moving towards detroit. with public on detriot, this would normally be a cleveland play. this system leans to detriot.

 

[docslep]

also, big line move towards boston with the public on boston. should be a tampa play, but the system likes boston.

 

[sparticus]

Looks like toronto is a play also as toronto went from 169 to 150 , but as you said using this system toronto is a play not the w.sox where all the $ is going, also cinci may be a play if a few more $ comes in on atl, i used a system close to this about 10 years ago with GREAT success, Good Winnings!!

 

[Bookie Buster]

Hello All,

here is what I see opening lines at 6am from 5dimes till now

tor -167/ now -150
bos -203/ now -180

 

[Iceman]

the "system" went 0-2 last nite, 0-4 if you used wagerline #'s. i'm not betting them, just tracking them.

this is kinda opposite what i've been doing my whole betting life. i always bet against the line movement,assuming that would be the direction of the sharp movement. especially if the public is on the other side. this "system" makes no sense to me.
i'll watch some more but will tread lightly.wdyt?

Let me stress this again. It is not about 1 game or 5 games or 100 games. It is about getting peak prices, numbers that are the best of the best on close to for 1,000 plays. In july I had close to 600 plays (with RL and totals).

After a 1,000 plays or so using any system you should be up or down no more than 50 units, most likely. If you are making a few extra dollars on each play thn you will see the difference and understand what I mean.

It's about heavy volume (IMO). Remeber one big thing the PUBLIC is wrong more than right. You are on the side of the book, correct.

Good luck

 

[acez29]

iceman,

not sure if you saw my post on totals and this system, may have gotten lost in the other info on the previous page

 

[Bookie Buster]

ice what sides or totals are you on, if you please.

thanks

 

[Iceman]

Iceman, question for you.

When you are looking at 15% moves on totals, does a jump from O/U 9 to 9.5 affect your play?

Here are some examples:

Opening line: 9u -110 9o +100
Steam line: 9u +110 9o -120
In this case, 9o has steamed by 20 points (more than 15%) so the correct play would be 9u (+110), correct?


2nd example:
Opening line: 9u -110 9o +100
Steam line: 9.5u -110 9.5o +100
In this case, 9o got hammered even more than the first example, which caused the book to bump up the total to 8.5. Would the correct play here be 9.5u (-110)?

Of note: In the above examples, when I say "opening line" I mean the "hashed out" opening line after the sharps have thrown money at it...

both examples are correct and your anaylsis of what to bet is right on.

With that said if I was proceeding with caution on anything it would probably be totals. They have not done as well as sides since I have been playing them.

I hope I have been stress enough about getting the best number availbile. Most of the time waiting to as late as you can to squeeze every dollar out of this is the proper way to do this.

 

[oldschool]

Yesterday, I had 3 plays: CINN, STL, and MINN. The steam on LAD and PHIL "made sense", because the steam was on hot teams with equal or better pitchers. The steam on KC made no sense, as the public was betting a bad team and a horrible pitcher.

Today, I have Cinn at -131, DET at -145, TOR at -149, BOS at -177. Good luck, whatever system you are using.