I have just had the best baseball month of my life- here is how

[Iceman]

few questions..

can you merely look at the opening line, listed at covers?

so are these plays tonight?

LAA -1.16 (matchbook)
LAA/Oak over 8.5 (-1.10) skybook

Mil +1.08 matchbook..


one other thing,, what about the consensus stat.......

example... Line opens angels (-1.30) and drops to angels (-1.16) yet 59% are on angels.. in my past experience, this should mean an oakland win..

just talking here.. congrats on the good month...

I need LAA -115 (off of my -127 line) also Matchbook makes you pay a commision right? Than you would need around -113 right?

I bet the over 9 on the Angels game +114 (yes it was a play)
also bet Milwaukee +105 (-105 opener)

on your example the answer would be no I don't take into account the public pecentage. Just line movement. I want value off the "sharp" morning opening line number.

Very slow nite tonite

 

[SSI]

what about using the opening number, listed at covers?

 

[Iceman]

what about using the opening number, listed at covers?

I am sure you can set it up anyway you want but from what I was told/taught it is better to let the sharps hit the number for a few hours and iron out the kinks before the public starts drilling it.

This is a very important step, deciding what the opening number is because this sets up your strike prices. My advice from doing this a month is be careful and don't get sloppy with it.

I take a number around 11pm and combine it with a number at 8am or so and average out but players can come up with different numbers so be careful but I advise to let the bettors hit the number for a few hours before you decide waht to do with it.

 

[charleslanger]

I think that works this year but not most-- that being one of the signs re baseball having confounded many this year.....

Ride it until it hurts, then be careful next year...

And thanks very much for sharing

 

[Iceman]

or you can fade these picks and make some big cash (tonite)uppy:

I bet around $100 out of a 20k bankroll (200 unit bankroll) and there are alot of plays doing this (average 10-15 a nite). Heck I hardly pay attention to these plays because win or lose, enough good bets should equal profits. My job is to get as many good bets down as possibile and the games will play themselves out. With any new idea you need to look at hundreds and hundreds of plays to get a feel for it.

Bottom line: You are getting prices at a better number than the experts put on them. For example -115 is the same as saying a team has a 53.5% chance of winning, you bet them at -102 and that 53.5% win rate team you now have to only pay -102 for.

I hope I made my point fairly clear on this and most importantly Pinnacle(or any book for that matter) if getting hammered on one side will move the number to entice action on the other side and you are now with them (the books) and against the masses.

 

[oldschool]

I use Pinnacle's line of 12 midnight as the opening line. I also use Pinnacle's line as indication of steam (steam almost always shows up first at Pinny). I had FLA opening at +107 and going as high as +120. I had Balt opening at +106 and going as high as + 118. Minn opened at -140 and went as low as -122. It has been my experience (over 40 years) that the very best bets are when the public (both "squares" and "sharps") steam against hot teams or hot pitchers. Minn today is a perfect example: Minn's starter had a season long WHIP of 1.64 and a 3 game WHIP of 1.76. Tex's starter had a season long WHIP of 1.69 and a 3 game WHIP of 2,40 (horrible). Minn had won their last game, 7 of 10, and 38 of 51 (an excellent 75%!). Tex had won their last game, 3 of 10, and 26 of 49. Despite this Tex was steamed big time.

Before internet betting, almost all steam was on favorites. Now most steam seems to be on dogs. Everyone wants to be a sharp ("sharps" never bet favorites)! This system has worked for 40 years in baseball, the NFL, and the NBA. It also works in college football and college basketball, but more care is needed to get a solid opening line (esp. in college basketball). I use early gameday moves of 10 points at one time as evidence that one of Pinn's big, winning bettors likes the game. I then bet the steamed side with a slow-moving book. I bet against steam EXCEPT when Pinn moves 10 points at once.

Last year in the NFL, favorites won 59%, yet "sharps" steamed many dogs.

What we are doing is betting with the big books; when we win, they win. VERY FEW bettors know more about what the "right" line should be than do the bigger books.

Good luck whatever system you use!

 

[Iceman]

OS,

Happy you made it over here. This my friends is the man behind the plan. Like I said with my first post, well this is the poster I am talking about. How did you find this palce OS?

Hope you don't mind me sharing this info to the Prescription posters. This is the best forum out in the gambling world (not to take anytthing away from Fezzik'splace). Hope I have did a good enough job explaining this to most. Like I said not everyone is going to do this exactly the same way but I think we are using the same general rules.

Rough nite but I can't complain as overall I am up 30 units since doing this. Like I said earlier hard to get upset when about a win or a loss when you know you have the best number out there. You know in the long run that adds up.

One quick question:
What if game opens at -110 and goes up slowly through out day and hits -122 still hours away from game time. Do you bet it or wait it out closer to game to bet? I have been betting when I see what I call the strike price and adding another half a unit if it goes up 15%.

 

[teazeman]

Old School:

Welcome and i hope you will share some knowledge with the members here, anyone who has been in the game as long as you is bound to be full of good advise on gambling and life.

 

[oldschool]

Iceman, I usually wait for the line to peak, but I think it's better to bet 1 unit immediately, and then bet more if the line continues to steam. I'm going to use your approach from now on. I also need more books, but right now I'm careful about the internet books (because of the possible new law). It was much harder to chart steam before the internet. Hell, EVERTHING (where information is concerned) was much more difficult before the internet. Also, things can change, so maybe steam will start to win, but I doubt it.

I heard of this forum from Fezzik's.

 

[Hal01]

pinnacle allows you to "order" prices so you dont have to look at them all day...

bznofx19,

Thanks for the heads up. I thought Pinnacle only did that for NBA. Do they offer it for NFL, College Ball?

Thanks, Hal

 

[docslep]

which sites give the most up to date line movement?

braves look like a play tonite, no?:smoker2:

 

[Hoshtaylor]

which sites give the most up to date line movement?

braves look like a play tonite, no?:smoker2:

that's what I was just researching...line has moved like CRAZY...yet when I look on Wagerline their stats show public very much on ATL, yet line moving away from ATL....so what's the call...? I see a great value here with ATL and PIT got lucky sweeping a horrible SF team (yes, I am a SF fan) that needs a new closer...3 blown saves last week for Benetiz...back to the subject...Iceman...thoughts on this ATL/PIT game tonight...????

Consensus on ATS


<TABLE class=data id=tblConATS cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="14%"></TD><TD width="23%">Visitor</TD><TD width="9%">Wagers</TD><TD width="14%">Line</TD><TD width="23%">Home</TD><TD width="9%">Wagers</TD><TD width="8%">Line</TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>6 </TD><TD class=datacell>-160 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>+152 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>38 </TD><TD class=datacell>-158 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>30 </TD><TD class=datacell>+150 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>71 </TD><TD class=datacell>-156 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>48 </TD><TD class=datacell>+148 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>11 </TD><TD class=datacell>-155 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>8 </TD><TD class=datacell>+147 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>73 </TD><TD class=datacell>-153 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>30 </TD><TD class=datacell>+145 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>96 </TD><TD class=datacell>-152 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>67 </TD><TD class=datacell>+144 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>32 </TD><TD class=datacell>-149 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>20 </TD><TD class=datacell>+141 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>37 </TD><TD class=datacell>-148 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>23 </TD><TD class=datacell>+140 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>11 </TD><TD class=datacell>-147 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>+139 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>7 </TD><TD class=datacell>-145 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>8 </TD><TD class=datacell>+137 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>48 </TD><TD class=datacell>-142 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>26 </TD><TD class=datacell>+134 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>186 </TD><TD class=datacell>-141 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>95 </TD><TD class=datacell>+133 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>34 </TD><TD class=datacell>-139 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>31 </TD><TD class=datacell>+131 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>-137 </TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>+129 </TD></TR><TR class=datahead><TD class=datahl>Consensus </TD><TD class=datahl>Atlanta </TD><TD class=datahl>655 </TD><TD class=datahl> </TD><TD class=datahl>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datahl>397 </TD><TD class=datahl> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Consensus on Over/Under

<TABLE class=data id=tblConOU cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="16%"></TD><TD width="28%">Over Wagers</TD><TD width="28%">Total</TD><TD width="28%">Under Wagers</TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>224 </TD><TD class=datacell>8.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>103 </TD></TR><TR class=datacell><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>168 </TD><TD class=datacell>9 </TD><TD class=datacell>101 </TD></TR><TR class=datahead><TD class=datahl>Consensus </TD><TD class=datahl>392 </TD><TD class=datahl> </TD><TD class=datahl>204 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[freddy66]

as far as i can tell Atl moved farther than any of them.however i can't imagine the public betting on pitt against Smoltz.

 

[EagleEye+]

Betting theories

Hello guys, the Eagle here, Let me start out by saying that I’ve just finished reading this entire thread and it is without a doubt one of the best that I’ve ever seen. I do have a few questions and a few statements.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
First, my wife and I own a service and for obvious reasons, I won’t post the name of that service at this time. I don’t think that would be fair.
<o></o>
Second, my wife and I are both former programmers and have written several different programs to spot winners in sports wagering.
<o></o>
Third, I’ve been a professional gambler for 32 years.
<o></o>
I list these things not to impress you, but to impress upon you that I have some idea about what I’m about to get involved in.
<o></o>
Our extensive research shows that this article is not only based on some of the best information that I’ve seen over the years, but it has attracted some of the best gambling educated people that I have seen. I am impressed.
<o></o>
Let’s get into some things that our programs have produced. We have monitored such companies as Don Best, as well as Sports Insights (moderator, if I overstepped the bounds by mentioning other sites, please delete and let me know as it is not my intention to anger anyone). One of our first programs tracked the line movement, and in many cases, the public percentages from one site. What we found was exciting and extra-ordinary. Favorites win and at an alarming rate. I won’t bore you with all my details, but I would add there was just an article written at Covers that suggested the same thing. I will give you one quick stat. If a line closes at –230 or greater, if my memory serves me correctly, it is on a 43-8 run since the start of 2005. Please keep in mind, I do not have my notes with me so I might be 1 or 2 wins off. Please forgive that. If the line is –280 or greater, up until the Yankees 19-6 loss a few days ago was something like 11-0. Now it’s 11-1. The Yankees were –320 if memory serves me correctly. So as you can see, one can afford a couple of losers in this category. I’m not trying to get everyone to play favorites, just not over look them.

Next, I would agree with the latter definition of Steam. Since most of the line movement happens the closer to game time, it makes it difficult to actually determine whether something is what we call Steam, or whether it’s just a bunch of people playing some of the name services. I’ve noticed over the last couple of years that almost 20% of the wagers come in late and in many cases, it’s a lot more than that.
<o></o>
Question to Iceman and/or OS: I’m going to use the Texas game as an example. I looked at this game yesterday. My wife’s data sheet showed that Minnesota was playing head and shoulders above Texas. Any other time I would have been all over this game. But because of the letdown possibility after playing against the White Sox and Detroit, I decided to stay away from this test. Hindsight is wonderful. Maybe someday I’ll find a book that will let me play hindsight. Obviously, Minnesota suffered ZERO let down. Or maybe Texas just sucks. It appears that you looked at the WHIP data and maybe just played that only, or did you actually look for other handicapping data? The same appears to be true for Baltimore, with someone posting they thought Tejada might have been traded, as well as Florida.
<o></o>
Our trending data suggested plays on Philadelphia, but because of the Abreu trade, we decided not to play this game. Please keep in mind, the trending data is only one part of the handicapping process that we use. I am assuming that the two of you, as well as others that have posted in this thread use other data as well. This is an example of what I was looking at: Data is broken down into last 30 games, last 20 games and last 10 games, as well as the last 15 on the road for the road team, last 10 and last 5 for the road team and home teams.
<o></o>
Florida 47% 50% and 60% (30, 20, and 10 over all) 40%, 40% and 40% (15, 10 and 5 on the road)
Philly 47%, 55% and 60% (30, 20, and 10 over all) 53%, 60% and 80% (15, 10 and 5 at home)
<o></o>
As this shows, Philly was certainly playing better, or at lest equal in all 6 categories.
<o></o>
By using the above data we can determine that the public should be on Philly and that was the case.
<o></o>
Now if I understand what all of you are saying, if the public moves the line at least 10% (Florida opened at +107, so that would make the line 107 + 10% or +10.7 or 11 points) or +118, the play would be Florida because there would be perceived value. Is that correct? And yes, I’m using Pinnacle lines. Florida closed at +116, which would have been a little less than the desired 10%. Is that not correct too? Granted Florida was an easy winner. Congratulations on an outstanding pick.
<o></o>
Minnesota made the list as well. Minnesota opened at –140. A 10% line movement would have been to –126. Minnesota actually went off at –122. This was 4 cents below the necessary value. Is that correct? Our tending data showed the following with Texas listed first and Minnesota listed second: 40%-73% (last 30), 45%-70% (last 20) and 30%-70% (last 10 total games), 40%-80% (last 15 road vs. home), 50%-80% last 10 road vs. home) and 60%-60% last 5 road vs. home). As we can all see, Minnesota was trending way ahead of Texas. A strange question has to be asked. Why was the public all over Texas? Were they looking for a let down as well?
<o></o>
Seattle and Baltimore was a different story with the outcome. Assuming that the only criteria used was the 10% rule, and with Seattle opening at –110 and a 10% move would have been –121, this would have been a play against Seattle, is that correct as well? And if so, then the night provided a 2-1 record, with positive results, considering Florida was a good doggie and there was value on Minnesota as well.
<o></o>
One other question before I get off my horse. There has been many to try and define what consists of squares and sharps. My question is fairly simple. How do you define, or better yet, tell the difference until the outcome of the game?
<o></o>
The main reason that I went through all of this is because my wife, Mama Bird and I have broken down the last few years of line moves, favorites, dogs, steam, public percentages from a few other websites and have found nothing that has been rewarding over a period of time. Please tell me that we’ve missed something, especially you old school. You’re one of the few people that I’ve ran into that has been doing this longer than I. If you see something that I have missed, please let me know. I think we all can find a way to make money here.
<o></o>
I know this is lengthy and I hope I haven’t upset too many here and I hope that I’ve provided some good insight. I haven’t posted here more than once or twice, but again, I must say that I like what I see.
<o></o>
GLTA,
Eagle

 

[teazeman]

Eagle Eye?

Are you the eagle eye from sportsinsights? If so this is one sharp cookie!

 

[EagleEye+]

Yes, same guy, although as you may know, I left there to start my own business about a year ago and thanks for the comments......
GL,
Eagle

 

[cd329]

You cant just play against line moves and think your gonna come out on top, because you believe your on the same side as the casino. Hate to burst everybodys bubble, but the books do a wonderful job of hiding the moves and disguising what they really need. You can sit around and watch all the don best line move screens all you want, but in the end its gonna work out to roughly 50-50 when the smoke clears. Topics like this have been talked about over and over again all over the net, with no lasting results.
Only way lines moves will help you, is if you know somebody at the big shops, who can actually tell you where and who is placing the cash. The books get a hard on when they hear about bettors trying to watch line moves, because they know they are distracting you from the real way of trying to pick winners and that is old fashioned capping.
There is no magic system that is gonna make us all rich, if there was the books would have been out of business long ago. They got everything figured out and covered on their end.

 

[Texas-Winners]

you are exactly right cd.....

 

[Iceman]

Eagle,
Thanks alot for joining in. The main reason I posted this was to try and tweak somethings, more or less see if anyone has something to add. I know alot of players don't divulge any of their secrets out of fear they may lose any edge they have gained. I just am VERY passionate about being a winnning player and will try to learn anything I can to try and succeed at this. Thanks for taking the time to post and share and yes I love trying to figure out this puzzle they call sports wagering and getting to know other players who are trying to do the same.

A few things:
I started studying line movement back during hoops and my goal was to try and beat the closing line at the slow moving books. I learned a ton of tricks and in the process went on the best daily gambling run of my life (15+ years or so). I think I won around 35 out of 45 nites. I made over 600 plays and had a 56.5% win pct.

An than tried to apply this principale to bases but nothing, mostly spun my wheels. I than ran across what OS was trying to do/say and realized that I was basically doing the opposite of what he was doing. I think maybe one of the reasons this has worked is because the sharps aren't that sharp in baseball. I guess it boils down to you are getting a legit +115 dog for +130 and enough of those add up to winning plays. I also like how OS said that you are on the same side of the book (and if you think of it that is 100% true) even though you are mostly betting at the Pinny's of the world. Some great discussion and pure common sense reassured me this was a winning formula. Getting prices at thier apex. Like I have said I don't have the data for other sports and this may just be a moneyline thing or because baseball is a daily grind and not much emotion is involved is why value is so huge, I am not 100% sure. I also think that because of the daily games that everyone knows what the line be should and the lines are overall razor sharp and any edge you can find (i.e value) is what seperates the winners from the losers and this method is all about getting the most bang for your buck.

Enough of my jibberish. Right now 10% is the key number for me. I also use this method for runlines and 15% for totals. I am not trying to distinguish sharp money from square money. Just looking for value from the opening lines. I am not looking at much of anything else. It seems everytime I try to cap or add somehting to something like this I get beat. My biggest weakness is my lack of data to backcheck things. I am just not the most computer literate person in the world (must be my era, I'm 35) but I am sure there are ways to improve on this. I know that OS has added something about steam earlier in the day that he will bet against slow moving books but like I said that is what did earlier in the year but I am no expert on this.

Please feel free to continue to get involved and let's beat this game. Thanks again for responding:toast:

 

[oldschool]

eagle eye, I try to keep it simple. I use Sagarin's pitcher's rating as well as season-long and 3 game WHIPS. Yesterday Fla's starter, Johnson was rated #5 by Sagarin. As for the teams, I look at streaks, WL in last 10 games, and home/away records. When the public steams a team that they should be on, I go the other way.

I don't break down the steam into "sharp" or "square". As I said, in the past, almost all steam was on favorites. Today, in the world of internet betting, most steam seems to be on dogs. By betting against 10%+ moves, I am standing with the books; in my opinion, they know much more than either "sharps" or "squares". Books don't care whether you are a sharp or a square, they just want your money. Look at the results of last year's NFL season. Favorites hit 59%, yet the books did not build in a favorite bias, probably because they still fear "sharp" dog money. How did the "sharps" do last year? Ace Ace won because he went with current form. Either favorites or dogs can be +EV. Good luck to everyone!