cosmokram3r said:
exactly. The linesmaker and the early betting public decided that NY Mets were a -120 favorite. After the line gets drilled it and moves 10% it creates a value on a legitimate -120 favorite and makes them a -105 favorite. Talk about getting value for your bet.
Let the public do they capping of the market and get a -120 favorite for -105. You are on the side of the book.
TKE683 said:
it depends what you are using as your strike price but I had Florida +104 on opener and heard there was as high as +118 out there and +116 was the closing line at Pinny (most of your bets are at but you are on Pinny's side and that is not a bad side to be on). Some of this is a judgement call but this is a good example and a legit (with shopping) bet
So, in other words the "moves" dont mean anything???
Might agree to the chalk movement, but Never would i agree with the doggiee movement.
Very, very few wiseguys play chalks and almost ALL of the squares and public play the chalks.
So after the public hammers a chalk, no matter who it may be, you are getting the doggiee at an inflated price, which is Always good.
Would be very very afraid of takeing a chalk behind a bunch of movement on a doggiee. The morning movement is major groups and wiseguys. Never a good idea of going against that, when its movement toward the dog.
Might agree to the chalk movement, but Never would i agree with the doggiee movement.
Very, very few wiseguys play chalks and almost ALL of the squares and public play the chalks.
So after the public hammers a chalk, no matter who it may be, you are getting the doggiee at an inflated price, which is Always good.
Would be very very afraid of takeing a chalk behind a bunch of movement on a doggiee. The morning movement is major groups and wiseguys. Never a good idea of going against that, when its movement toward the dog.
i used to do this for ncaa hoops. i kicked ass 2 yrs ago, but somehow it didn't work last year. which sites do you use to track line movement and public data?this is the key. i am very wary if you use an online betting site. why would an online bookie give any info to help the public beat them? don't you think they would try to mislead the public? to me you need to confirm the data with multiple sources to confirm that the bookie is not trying to mislead you, right?
on the other hand, the proof of the pudding is winning regularly. i'd love to use a reliable system. i can't cap mlb accurately this year, so i'm all ears. does it work in other sports?
on the other hand, the proof of the pudding is winning regularly. i'd love to use a reliable system. i can't cap mlb accurately this year, so i'm all ears. does it work in other sports?
whoever gave that definition of steam above is completely wrong.steam is when the moves instantly at multiple casinos b/c someone like billy walters bet tons of money all across the country on a game.he doesn't bet baseball but there are guys that do.poker players,jews,Q,etc they move the line in baseball.i think amny groups have quit for the year in baseball b/c it has been such a fucked up year in baseball.anyway try your theory out for football and college basketball and i assure you you will not enjoy it.
freddy66 said:
I generally agree with this.
You wanna fade public movement but you do NOT wanna fade steam. Differentiating the 2 would be tough in my opinion, unless you can get accurate numbers on what percent of bettors are on each side and what percent of money is on each side.
BOL though, I appreciate your insight Ice, have a lot of respect for you.
docslep said:
It has nothing to do with what pct of people bet what side. it has all to do with price movement from the orginal morning hashed overnight line. The line is at it's most accurate gauge early morning right before the bettors tear into later in day (Insiders I know you beleive that, you always have said that).
Get the value. Get a +120 dog for +140. Enough of these and bingo it adds up. I have seen alot more success on sides than totals but if someone can back test this I promise you the results are stunning the past 6 weeks. if not longer (not sure).
bznofx19 said:
according to my figures I need Baltimore +118 or higher and LAA -114 or lower. Those would be my strike prices.
not quite there yet, wait closer to gamtime they will move more, most likely. I would wait till the lines go up and shop around (Mansion, Sportsbetting, Pinnacle, SIA,WWTS). Catch these numbers at their apex.
