30 saves does not a great closer make.
I cant name dozens of closers thats saved 30 games that I would not give 2 cents for.
There are only about 6 or 7 great closers in all of baseball right now. About another 5 good to decent closers. Everyone else is nothing more than a crap shoot.
I think that is what he means, not that there are a lot of great closers or that saving 35+ makes you one, but that even bad closers rack up 30+ saves per year. Therefore, the stat itself is a joke and not a good measure of greatness.
I am with you, I think he should get in. However, FW and Rupert have valid points. Closers are not respected by HOF voters and that could be a problem for Hoffman. Additionally, the fact that almost every team has a guy with 30+ saves de-values the statistic itself.
I do, however, tend to disagree with you that in 15 years there will be plenty of closers in. Right now there are 3 (Fingers, Eck and Sutter). The only other feasible guys with any chance before Hoffman will be eligible are Lee Smith and Gossage, neither of whom look likely to get in, and John Franco, who I also think falls short. Billy Wagner is the only other likely guy to get any consideration, so the max you will have in 15 years is 6 (assuming Wagner, Rivera and Hoffman get in). If anything, Hoffman will have to be one of the trailblazers that changes voters minds.
Personally, I have to look beyond the saves stats and, again, get to what I saw and he and Rivera were the only two guys that, over a long period of time, I thought "ok, game is over" when they came in and b/c of that, they would be the only two guys I would vote for.