How should I hedge this bet???

[PatrickMcIrish]

By the way the hedge question has many different answers. Strictly mathematically you are getting the best odds on the planet so it would be advantageous to sit on it. Hedging is a long term bankroll drainer. You get put in a positive expectation on something like this the correct answer for a pro is stick with it, you won't get these sort of odds very often. However....

The reality though is do what you think is best. Many feel it is best to lock up the profit while you can and there is nothing wrong with that. Last year I did the same thing in a Vegas contest where I was 14-0 and needed Monday night game to win $20,000. I think the Niners were a 3.5 point favorite so all I needed was for them to win straight up. As I started thinking I had $20 in the whole contest! It's like it seemed like a waste not to pull something. I ended up playing it where I had a nice middle on the game. Needed SF to win the game but not cover the 3.5 points. It cost me some but I think I was guaranteed over 10k that way and could have made over 27k if the game hit. Not bad for a $20 dollar investment. In the end I suppose it has a lot to do with your bankroll as well. I'm not a big bettor so I decided to play for a middle and lock up some gravy. Anyway sorry to get off the topic but whatever you do is fine as long as you are comfortable with it. As long as you know and understand the odds there is nothing wrong with making an informed decision. In the end don't worry about others, you are the one who has to live with it. Good luck!

 

[sickgambler]

There's a lot of questions that still needs to be answered here with Peeps brother, Peteep.. I am 100% sure that peeps brother did not just play Florida as his only future. I am sure that he played other teams too, like other crappy teams at big odds, and lost them, and Florida is his only team left that had a chance. Maybe Peeps' bro has 900 bucks in losers too.. I doubt he only picked Florida.. What are the odds? If he did, great job, but that's tough..

More questions, after all is complete, how much will Peeps bro walk out with? If you minus his losses from other futures, and his hedges, what will he really be left with?

Also, seeing Peteep is canadian, is he betting in Canadian funds, or USD.. If canadian, then 40k easily becomes 30k usd.. Then you minus the hedges and his other futures that were eliminated, along with the exchange (if there is one) then Peeps bro is no longer winning 40k.. BTW, anyone that picks a 400-1 winner from the start like Peteep, deserves the 40k, that is assuming that was his only pick. Man, to put up 100 bucks up front for 6 months, and take a long shot on a team like Florida to win it all, deserves something. That takes a lot of balls. I hope this kid ends up with at least 15k clear, after all is said and done, minusing all his other futures that were wiped out, and his hedges..

And my last question is why would Peeps brother be giving the rx his business, when he can be at his brothers place posting there..

 

[valueman]

peteep - i really hope you have this bet and are not shitting us as we are all rooting for you and will be gutted if the yankees win now. 400/1 is a mighty big price to get - thought they were more like a 100/1 at the outset.

Got a feeling this is going down to game 7 though - hope your ticker can take it!

 

[Jazz]

I'm responding to this topic as before with the hope that this hedge was made as peteep said it was - and I can sure understand getting 400-1 at bluegrass as they tend to have generous future odds. Getting sidetracked into theories about the grassy knoll are entertaining but really don't mean anything to me - if he's lying, all I've wasted were a few minutes here and there typing responses, so I'm not sweating it. I waste more time pissing every day.

I personally think the idea of negotiating a hedge with bluegrass is excellent, if peteep wants to hedge at this point forward. Right now Pinnacle has got the Yankees -123 for the series, and an evenly-balanced hedge would gross $17,882, for a net profit of $17,082. The ultimate reason why I'm so in favor of hedging is because you simply cannot predict injuries nor momentum, which is why I hedged my Cubs WS futures bet and walked away sad about the Cubs but happy about the money. Shit happens. Sure, there's a GREAT deal of value in a 400-1 bet at this point, but no sports bet is a sure thing in this world. Getting paid NOW at 178-1 of course is appealing to me, especially on $100. And if the hedge is negotiated at bluegrass, they of course reduce their exposure from $40,000 to $17,800, with the Marlins up 1-0 and the next game tonight. Hell, you shouldn't have to put up money, I'd think, since your collateral to pay the Yankees is the 40K for a Marlins win.

Anyhow, that Vegas idea did not sound bad at all, if you're bound and determined to stay on the bet. GL again

[This message was edited by Jazz on October 19, 2003 at 10:49 AM.]

 

[peteep]

Hey guys. Thanks for all the responses.

First off, I'm not peep's brother....I'm just a kid who has the nick name Pete e.p.

Secondly, I placed three future bets. One on Florida at 400-1 for $100, one on Montreal at 200-1 for $50 and one on Toronto at 50-1 for $50. When I bet on Florida, I looked at their lineup and figured if they started getting healthy they could give any team a run. Luckily I was right.

This bet is not some fabrication. I actually have a total of $104 USD on the Marlins. I made a number of small bets that added up to that amount. I basically would round down to the nearest ten dollars of my balance every couple of days. (ex. $996 balance, lay $6 on Florida)

I appreciate everybody's input as to how to hedge. I have about $4300 on the yanks so far. I don't want to bet much more on the yanks cause I cannot afford to lose that money. I do believe Bluegrass will pay, but on the offchance something went goofy, I can't take the risk of getting screwed and losing my money. I'm a student and money isn't all that abundant. If this bet cashes, my tuition will essentially paid for by bluegrass.......now that's a valuable contribution to society!

This is a huge rush for me. I've got two exams next week.....studying has never been harder. I'm always thinking about the upcoming game, what the Marlins players are eating, what shampoo their using, is their bus running on premium fuel etc. I can't believe I'm in this situation. I will most likely never have another gambling story to tell like this one. This is fantastic.

 

[sickgambler]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by peteep:
I do believe Bluegrass will pay, but on the offchance something went goofy, I can't take the risk of getting screwed and losing my money. I'm a student and money isn't all that abundant. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is one of the many reasons why I would NEVER make a future bet to win 40k. Not only do you have to tie up your money for 7 months, and be worried that that book will still be around in that long of time ahead, BUT Peteep just said it.. The key word he says here is "I do believe Bluegrass will pay, but on the offchance something went goofy, I can't take the risk of getting screwed and losing my money". Why make a very large play, see it cashing in, then have to sweat that you get paid for it seeing it's such a large amount.. And what happens if god forbid, Bluegrass does stiff him for 40k, now what? Well, he will not only not see the 40k, but if he hedges it right in the middle, he would also lose 15-20k with the other books with his hedges. Talk about a double whammy, or a slap to the face.

Futures are just not worth it, UNLESS, the amounts are not too big where it can hurt a book, OR, it is played at Olympic, WSEX, or Pinnacle..

BTW, good job Peteep. Hope you do well, and I hope you get paid..

I'm confident you will..

Will Peteep get paid by BG if he wins..

YES -250
NO +210

You're a favorite, but not that big a favorite..

 

[Shotgun]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by peteep:
This is a huge rush for me. I've got two exams next week.....studying has never been harder. I'm always thinking about the upcoming game, what the Marlins players are eating, what shampoo their using, is their bus running on premium fuel etc. I can't believe I'm in this situation. I will most likely never have another gambling story to tell like this one. This is fantastic.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Pete. are you able to watch the games? I've stopped watching any ballgames where my wager is more than my normal unit plays; have you reached that point yet?

 

[peteep]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Shotgun:

Pete. are you able to watch the games? I've stopped watching any ballgames where my wager is more than my normal unit plays; have you reached that point yet?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Watching these games is the most intense feeling I may have ever had. My palms are sweaty and my heart is pounding throughout the whole thing. I can't not watch them though. I tried to not watch game seven of the cubs series but was drawn right back. I was almost more nervous if I wasn't watching....as though I have some control over the game if I'm watching LOL. Yesterday's bottom of the ninth was crazy especially with a yanks fan from the bronx sitting next to me at the bar. When Urbina got out of the eigth, and when Nick Johnson popped out, the whole bar was wondering why I was cheering so loud.

 

[peteep]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jam:
Hey peteep,

I don't really care to hear about how you hedged. I want to hear about the psychological impact (damage?) this bet has had on you.
How about telling us where your head was at when the Marlins were down 3-1 to the Cubs and they had to face Prior and Wood again. Are you married? Girlfriend? Do you intend on telling your lesser half about your big win. At this point you're way up if you cover with a Yankees series win.
Will you be sending a prezzy to the Cubs' fan who stole an out? Or Alex Gonzalez?


<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

As for psychological impact, I don't think the stress has been good for me. But when the fish win a game, it's a huge rush! The night the fish lost to make the series 3-1 I was djing at a club. I checked the score on cell phone. I was pretty down at that point. I pretty much wrote the fish off. I actually had to catch game six on the radio. I was in a piss-poor mood until Derek Lee doubled in 2 runs to make it 3-3. As soon as the fish won game six, I was very confident game seven was theirs as well. I have told my friends, but not my girlfriend. She knows I'm cheering for the fish big time, but not why it means so much to me. I'll surprise her with something nice if they win. And yes, I plan on sending that fan a christmas card.

 

[BillDozer]

uh oh. I hope a monster was not created. Are you going to go back to playing 2% unit plays? ( I hope)

 

[peteep]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by BillDozer:
uh oh. I hope a monster was not created. Are you going to go back to playing 2% unit plays? ( I hope)<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, I don't see myself goin' crazy with my bets if they win. That money can make the rest of my school days a lot more comfortable and not have to worry about student loans etc. I imagine there will be a couple of bets made that are larger than usual, but no "monster" will be created.

 

[IDENTITY]

peteep....the marlins might sweep this series. i'd wait til theyre behind to hedge....

 

[BillDozer]

rent a party limo bus full of chicks afrom school and go nuts. puke

 

[IDENTITY]

hopefully marlins win this one 5-4...

 

[randyrohm]

Sick, Your advice in this thread is dead on. 3 years ago I had a great year and used a lot of those funds to scalp and middle futures. I knew the risk and only wagered when there was both a scalp and middle shot. I sweated those funds more than it was worth and in fact one book went under but that bet lost. I don't even look at futures unless they are with top 5 or 6 books.

 

[jam]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by peteep:

I appreciate everybody's input as to how to hedge. I have about $4300 on the yanks so far. I don't want to bet much more on the yanks cause I cannot afford to lose that money. I do believe Bluegrass will pay, but on the offchance something went goofy, I can't take the risk of getting screwed and losing my money. I'm a student and money isn't all that abundant. If this bet cashes, my tuition will essentially paid for by bluegrass.......now that's a valuable contribution to society!
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Peteeps, it would be a damn shame if you only come out of this with a few grand if the Yanks win. I'd call Bluegrass and see if they want to negotiate a settlement, or at least let you cover a Yanks series win on credit.

Maybe you want a shot at $35k with the Marlins and I don't want to try and talk you out of that, but you're a student and I'd take the easy 15k or so right now if I were you. Pity you couldn't (didn't) do so before tonight's game.

Where in Canada are you from? What kind of tunes do you spin? I gotta go... have to check Bluegrass' hockey futures.

 

[peteep]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jam:


Where in Canada are you from? What kind of tunes do you spin? I gotta go... have to check Bluegrass' hockey futures.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'm in London, Ontario....about two hours from Toronto. I spin house/breaks.....dancefloor friendly stuff that you would hear a lot of in the U.K.

 

[jam]

I went to UWO. Oh how I miss the Ceeps, Barneys and hottest university women in North America.
Perhaps you can start a new thread in the appropriate forum with some house music I should check out. I used to love Roxy Blu and The Gypsy Co-op in Toronto, but all my buddies are married now and I don't have any decent wingmen to go bird-dogging with.

 

[peteep]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jam:
I went to UWO. Oh how I miss the Ceeps, Barneys and hottest university women in North America.
Perhaps you can start a new thread in the appropriate forum with some house music I should check out. I used to love Roxy Blu and The Gypsy Co-op in Toronto, but all my buddies are married now and I don't have any decent wingmen to go bird-dogging with.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Nice! I'm at UWO....planning on going to the Ivey school for business. And yes, the ladies are still smoking. Playboy rated them #2 in North America, if I remember correctly. Ceep's and Barney's are still two of the hot-spots. Jim Bob's is the biggest draw nowadays though.

Cheers!

 

[ballsofblue]

so what did you play on the yanks