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How Phil Steele and Northcoast Can Return to Profitability and/or at Least Stop the Bleeding
- Thread starter savage1
- Start date
You are 100% right. Phil is a ' Pick seller.' Selling 56 picks per week with absolutely no consideration for Money or Game Management. I moved on from his 80's crap about 20 years ago
Not only is what you say true but by selling so many different sets of picks in theory anyways(as most folks get his/NC's picks for free at sites like this), it 1) enables him/NC a lot
of streams of revenues by selling these packages separately and 2) allows him more opportunities when advertising to find something which won of late and emphasizing
that rather than what lost.
In fact, I continue to do this year after year for the reason that there are always young and/or new gamblers out there who are not familiar yet with the modus operandi of Phil
and NC.
The only thing worth noting today has to do with the latest P.Steele/NC promotions and what it indicates.
All week long leading up to Week One of NFL Preseason football, Todd the Comp. Guy as part of the alleged $300 in savings if one purchases
a one year subscription to PowerSweep for $99, offered the first week of Preseason NFL picks for FREE for anyone who signs up.
This is allegedly a $175 value in itself(yeah right).
The hopes were obviously that lot of folks would sign up right away with this allegedly great enticement.
Well to cut to the chase, Phil/the NC Marketing Dept. has decided to offer the same deal again for the Second Week of NFL Preseason.
I will let you decide whether it is being offered a second time because of the "overwhelming demand and purchases" in one week OR
because it didn't go over so hot in the First Week.
I think it is rather obvious what I think.
All week long leading up to Week One of NFL Preseason football, Todd the Comp. Guy as part of the alleged $300 in savings if one purchases
a one year subscription to PowerSweep for $99, offered the first week of Preseason NFL picks for FREE for anyone who signs up.
This is allegedly a $175 value in itself(yeah right).
The hopes were obviously that lot of folks would sign up right away with this allegedly great enticement.
Well to cut to the chase, Phil/the NC Marketing Dept. has decided to offer the same deal again for the Second Week of NFL Preseason.
I will let you decide whether it is being offered a second time because of the "overwhelming demand and purchases" in one week OR
because it didn't go over so hot in the First Week.
I think it is rather obvious what I think.
In tomorrow's piece among other things, I will talk about the current $99 alleged bargain price for a one year online subscription to PowerSweep
with relevant factual data and commentary, which hopefully will allow you folks reading this to decide if it really is the bargain Phil Steele/NC claim it is.
with relevant factual data and commentary, which hopefully will allow you folks reading this to decide if it really is the bargain Phil Steele/NC claim it is.
Ok-here we go with what I stated I was going to do in previous post.
First though for those who just want to know the contents of the comp. line message today, all that is stated is essentially a repeat of last week's
promo: one year subscription to Power Sweep, wits Week Two NFL Preseason as well as two additional
Marquees(last week it was one) once college football begins and the September Five Star all thrown in for free.
What is missing this week from last week is the alleged value of the free bonuses which was alleged to be $300 and prior to that
as high as $400.
Perhaps Phil Steele/NC finally get the message that you can't get away with passing off stuff for free with an alleged value of $300 to $400
when in fact in reality, it is worth $100 or so.
Ok-now on to the other stuff for those who are interested, which is tied to what I just said.
Now to make this understandable, we have to make several HUGE assumptions, which in fact are not based in reality and probably
never will be-if they are considered, then what I am going to say doesn't mean all that much.
1) That virtually everything Phil Steele/NC puts out in the way of both weekly publications(PowerSweep and PowerPlays) as well as all of
The Late Phones, Marquees, Opinions, etc. are NOT available for free at multiple gambling sites on the internet including
this one for free.
2) That Phil Steele is NOT an arrogant person who believes his advertising methods(which are the same as when NC started thirty some odd years
ago) are perfect and never need to be changed as well as of as course his picks and handicapping methods, which is
essence means that if any of NC's picks lose, it is not because the handicapping was off, but rather because for some
reason the players did not perform in his "infallible" handicapping manner, which has withstood the test of time.
We have to assume all of that is not true.
3) Along the same lines as #2, we have to also assume that Steele/NC does NOT set high original asking prices fo the NC picks compared to other services
because he believes that they are so superior and have proven to be over all of the years NC has existed.
Ok with those assumptions in mind, let's take a look at the current PowerSweep Promotion which included the HOF Kickoff Game as well as Week One,
and Week Two described above, namely $99 for a year's subscription with all of the free bonuses.
Ok-first up until today, Todd, the Comp. Guy, stated that Week one of Preseason had a value of $175.
By doing simple math, that would suggest a retail value of $700 for four weeks of Preseason NFL.
I will leave it for you to decide if in the middle of summer when there are other things to do, if $175/$750 is a realistic asking price
for football games that don't even count.
What I especially find interesting here is that prior to Week One's games being played, Todd said the "special" was for Week One only.
Nothing was said about it also being offered in Week Two.
My point/question is the promo really caught on in Week One, why would they offer it again in Week Two and imo for Week Three
and Week Four also.
The two possibilities I see here are 1) it was a tremendous success and by popular demand, they decided to try it for another week,
or 2made very few sales and decided that they had nothing to lose by offering it again.
The biggest problem I have with the #2 scenario is that if those listening to the comp. tape didn't fall for it prior to Week One, then why would they
fall for it in Week Two and still pay $99 after Week One had already passed.
My own opinion of all this is #1 I don't believe there is all that much interest in geneal for PreSeason Football in the middle
of summer and even less interest for paying a Sports Service for picks and especially not $175 a week.
2) Along the same lines and what I find interesting and telling is the fact that although Todd CLAIMS Preseason Football has a regular retail
weekly value of $175 or $700 for the four weeks, NOT ONCE on comp. line did Todd try to sell it piecemeal for those who
weren't interested in purchasing PowerSweep but who wanted only the Executive Service Picks.
Could that "possibly" mean that Steele/NC know god damn well that no one in their right minds would pay that-lifeline please!! lol
Anyways that enough for today- you will get more of my take in the soon to be created Phil/Steele NC Thread in the Site Promotion Section.
First though for those who just want to know the contents of the comp. line message today, all that is stated is essentially a repeat of last week's
promo: one year subscription to Power Sweep, wits Week Two NFL Preseason as well as two additional
Marquees(last week it was one) once college football begins and the September Five Star all thrown in for free.
What is missing this week from last week is the alleged value of the free bonuses which was alleged to be $300 and prior to that
as high as $400.
Perhaps Phil Steele/NC finally get the message that you can't get away with passing off stuff for free with an alleged value of $300 to $400
when in fact in reality, it is worth $100 or so.
Ok-now on to the other stuff for those who are interested, which is tied to what I just said.
Now to make this understandable, we have to make several HUGE assumptions, which in fact are not based in reality and probably
never will be-if they are considered, then what I am going to say doesn't mean all that much.
1) That virtually everything Phil Steele/NC puts out in the way of both weekly publications(PowerSweep and PowerPlays) as well as all of
The Late Phones, Marquees, Opinions, etc. are NOT available for free at multiple gambling sites on the internet including
this one for free.
2) That Phil Steele is NOT an arrogant person who believes his advertising methods(which are the same as when NC started thirty some odd years
ago) are perfect and never need to be changed as well as of as course his picks and handicapping methods, which is
essence means that if any of NC's picks lose, it is not because the handicapping was off, but rather because for some
reason the players did not perform in his "infallible" handicapping manner, which has withstood the test of time.
We have to assume all of that is not true.
3) Along the same lines as #2, we have to also assume that Steele/NC does NOT set high original asking prices fo the NC picks compared to other services
because he believes that they are so superior and have proven to be over all of the years NC has existed.
Ok with those assumptions in mind, let's take a look at the current PowerSweep Promotion which included the HOF Kickoff Game as well as Week One,
and Week Two described above, namely $99 for a year's subscription with all of the free bonuses.
Ok-first up until today, Todd, the Comp. Guy, stated that Week one of Preseason had a value of $175.
By doing simple math, that would suggest a retail value of $700 for four weeks of Preseason NFL.
I will leave it for you to decide if in the middle of summer when there are other things to do, if $175/$750 is a realistic asking price
for football games that don't even count.
What I especially find interesting here is that prior to Week One's games being played, Todd said the "special" was for Week One only.
Nothing was said about it also being offered in Week Two.
My point/question is the promo really caught on in Week One, why would they offer it again in Week Two and imo for Week Three
and Week Four also.
The two possibilities I see here are 1) it was a tremendous success and by popular demand, they decided to try it for another week,
or 2made very few sales and decided that they had nothing to lose by offering it again.
The biggest problem I have with the #2 scenario is that if those listening to the comp. tape didn't fall for it prior to Week One, then why would they
fall for it in Week Two and still pay $99 after Week One had already passed.
My own opinion of all this is #1 I don't believe there is all that much interest in geneal for PreSeason Football in the middle
of summer and even less interest for paying a Sports Service for picks and especially not $175 a week.
2) Along the same lines and what I find interesting and telling is the fact that although Todd CLAIMS Preseason Football has a regular retail
weekly value of $175 or $700 for the four weeks, NOT ONCE on comp. line did Todd try to sell it piecemeal for those who
weren't interested in purchasing PowerSweep but who wanted only the Executive Service Picks.
Could that "possibly" mean that Steele/NC know god damn well that no one in their right minds would pay that-lifeline please!! lol
Anyways that enough for today- you will get more of my take in the soon to be created Phil/Steele NC Thread in the Site Promotion Section.
ps If anyone is interested on what I would have done under conditions and criterion stated in previous post, the answer is simple.
If I was Steele/NC I would have charged the $99 but instead of giving away just one week of NFL Preseason for Free, I would have offered the ENTIRE NFL Preseason
as an incentive to buy PS.
If I was Steele/NC I would have charged the $99 but instead of giving away just one week of NFL Preseason for Free, I would have offered the ENTIRE NFL Preseason
as an incentive to buy PS.
First of all thanks to those who read yesterday's length post and/or to those who read enough to get the gist of what I said.
Today's recap of the comp. message is much shorter.
Todd mentions three or four times that it is not too late for those who "missed out" on the $99 "special," which gave them Week
One of the Executive Service picks as a bonus, to get same deal for Week Two. AsI said yesterday, they should
offer the ENTIRE REMAINDER of the NFL Pre-season for free if they were smart for anyone who shells out the $99.
I am sure they will offer the same deal for Weeks Three and Four separately, which as stated above, is just plain dumb
and counterproductive.
The only other thing worth mentioning is that Todd says the Marquees last week went 3-1, which is true.
However he claims that the star rated plays went 2-1 but last week doing the recaps he mentioned that the two wins could have been pushes or
losses depending on what time and line a person bet the game.
You can decide whether you deem that to be sneaky, self-serving or deceptive.
Today's recap of the comp. message is much shorter.
Todd mentions three or four times that it is not too late for those who "missed out" on the $99 "special," which gave them Week
One of the Executive Service picks as a bonus, to get same deal for Week Two. AsI said yesterday, they should
offer the ENTIRE REMAINDER of the NFL Pre-season for free if they were smart for anyone who shells out the $99.
I am sure they will offer the same deal for Weeks Three and Four separately, which as stated above, is just plain dumb
and counterproductive.
The only other thing worth mentioning is that Todd says the Marquees last week went 3-1, which is true.
However he claims that the star rated plays went 2-1 but last week doing the recaps he mentioned that the two wins could have been pushes or
losses depending on what time and line a person bet the game.
You can decide whether you deem that to be sneaky, self-serving or deceptive.
I think he sold himself to the books. I started using Northcoast in the early 90's. He went on a sick run for two straight years. Hitting 80% of games of the month and games of the year. 70% Monday night magic. I will never forget one year I was up 3,000 ( and I was a small player, 25-75 a game. Monday night I put it all on his Monday night magic play. Giants vs Eagles. I had the Giants and they covered my 2 tds. I was afraid to go collect 6,000 from my Bookie. I brought my 2 brothers with me. He was hitting 60 to 65% 3 to 4 years straight. Those were the great years of gambling.
I think he sold himself to the books. I started using Northcoast in the early 90's. He went on a sick run for two straight years. Hitting 80% of games of the month and games of the year. 70% Monday night magic. I will never forget one year I was up 3,000 ( and I was a small player, 25-75 a game. Monday night I put it all on his Monday night magic play. Giants vs Eagles. I had the Giants and they covered my 2 tds. I was afraid to go collect 6,000 from my Bookie. I brought my 2 brothers with me. He was hitting 60 to 65% 3 to 4 years straight. Those were the great years of gambling.
Yes, Bengals, he did have some great years as you say even in the early 2000s.
Believe it or not, since PC 's weren't even around in the early to mid 90's, I am not sure I go back to the opening years of NC.
However, I certainly do believe your story.
I don't know exactly what you mean in this case by selling himself to the books, but NC has slipped badly in lots of ways especially over the last decade.
Imo some of it is because Phil/NChave not adapted/modified their handicapping methods very much, one of the reasons being that imo and one of
the insiders at NC(who used to come to the thread at CM), Phil is very arrogant and believes that his handicapping methods never need to be changed.
Also unlike way back in the nineties, when NC ruled the roost, lots of other better and sometimes cheaper services have come along
to relegate him in many ways to just another sports service.
That said and to be fair, I almost always play his Games of Something because they are good bets as well as his Early Bird Play, which goes back
many years and still has an astonishing record.
Also even though there are lots of folks who believe that my only purpose in starting threads like this is to try to discredit Phil and NC,
the real truth as anyone who has followed my commentary over knows, my biggest beef with them is not their picks, but
rather their deceptive techniques as to how their project their records, which for me in many instances amount to lying by omission.
The same goes for their advertising which in essence means their trying to project fantastic discounts for buying PowerSweep
Subscriptions but imo are not such great discounts at all, as I pointed out in my lengthy piece yesterday.
Anyways thanks for the great story and feel hopefully you and others will continue to offer their comments both in
in this thread and the new one which will be found in the Sites Promotion of the Forum once football begins for real.
FWIW Salvage, I have tracked his weekly plays and it seems is 2* hit at a higher % then his 3*, 3.5* and 4,4.5 and 5* all combined... bc you only get 1 of these per day and maybe 5-7 per week, you can use a Matrix Progression and net $1000 every 5 wins no matter how many losses you have using a $200 base bet per game. This is what I plan on doing. If he hits anything greater then 50%, it is legalized stealing.
Well before ore I get the next ? What is the Matrix and how is it performed.
You divide the loss loss over the amount of remaining wins needed to close the Matrix. IE.
say your playing a 10 Win Matrix. You are looking for 10 wins or 8 for sure.
Write out vertically 1-10... say it goes like this
W W L W L W L W L L W W L W L W W for a 10-7 record. 10-7.7 for a net gain of 2.3 wins x $200 is $460 ...
WIN 1. $200
WIN2 $200
Lose $220. (Divide 220 by 8 and add that to the $220 base wager and round up to nearest even bet. So bet $250 to win $225.
WIN3. $225
Lose $250. $250/7 remaining to close Matrix
bet $291 to win $261.
WIN4. $261
lose $290... divide $290/6. Next bet 340 to win $306
WIN5. $306
Lose 340 340/5. next bet $410
Lose $410. 410/5. Round up next bet to $500 to win 450
WIN 6. $450
WIN 7 $450
Lose 500 500/3. Add 166.bet $666 to win $594
WIN 8 $594
Once you achieve 8 wins ask yourself if you lose next bet can you make the next bet comfortably? If not you create another 10 win Matrix and now take the remaining (2) wins needed to complete the Matrix (500+ 500) and divide that total by 10 and add it to the base bet of $200. So make another 10 line Matrix and start this at $300... if it is ever too big just create another 10 line Matrix.
Min above example I stopped and created another 10 line and went 8-6. A standard 8-6 with a $200 base makes a whopping $40... my way it made $76 and on my way to another 600-700 over next group of 8 Wins. Now I based it over a horrible 8-6 record. Two groups of 5-2 records netting 10-4 is more like normal I would hope. When you perform this over a good capper who can hit a higher %. It’s obvious you have to have a BR to sustain a few losses. I use a $5k Bankroll. I can net 7-8 win ev 7 days, regardless of losses which mean I am netting $650-700 Weekly profit. That’s $3k a mo and pays my Mortgage.
GL
Well before ore I get the next ? What is the Matrix and how is it performed.
You divide the loss loss over the amount of remaining wins needed to close the Matrix. IE.
say your playing a 10 Win Matrix. You are looking for 10 wins or 8 for sure.
Write out vertically 1-10... say it goes like this
W W L W L W L W L L W W L W L W W for a 10-7 record. 10-7.7 for a net gain of 2.3 wins x $200 is $460 ...
WIN 1. $200
WIN2 $200
Lose $220. (Divide 220 by 8 and add that to the $220 base wager and round up to nearest even bet. So bet $250 to win $225.
WIN3. $225
Lose $250. $250/7 remaining to close Matrix
bet $291 to win $261.
WIN4. $261
lose $290... divide $290/6. Next bet 340 to win $306
WIN5. $306
Lose 340 340/5. next bet $410
Lose $410. 410/5. Round up next bet to $500 to win 450
WIN 6. $450
WIN 7 $450
Lose 500 500/3. Add 166.bet $666 to win $594
WIN 8 $594
Once you achieve 8 wins ask yourself if you lose next bet can you make the next bet comfortably? If not you create another 10 win Matrix and now take the remaining (2) wins needed to complete the Matrix (500+ 500) and divide that total by 10 and add it to the base bet of $200. So make another 10 line Matrix and start this at $300... if it is ever too big just create another 10 line Matrix.
Min above example I stopped and created another 10 line and went 8-6. A standard 8-6 with a $200 base makes a whopping $40... my way it made $76 and on my way to another 600-700 over next group of 8 Wins. Now I based it over a horrible 8-6 record. Two groups of 5-2 records netting 10-4 is more like normal I would hope. When you perform this over a good capper who can hit a higher %. It’s obvious you have to have a BR to sustain a few losses. I use a $5k Bankroll. I can net 7-8 win ev 7 days, regardless of losses which mean I am netting $650-700 Weekly profit. That’s $3k a mo and pays my Mortgage.
GL
ACP-I am not quite sure I understand all of it, but most importantly feel free to post here and the and the new thread RE: Phil Steele/NC once football officially begins
and show everyone if it produces a profit or loss.
I personally get involved only with the Late Phones with my record keeping, etc. and not the Marquees, Opinions or comps. as they have no rating.
Thanks for contributing and the best of luck!
and show everyone if it produces a profit or loss.
I personally get involved only with the Late Phones with my record keeping, etc. and not the Marquees, Opinions or comps. as they have no rating.
Thanks for contributing and the best of luck!
One last thing before I call it a night:
I am not sure if the daily NC football comps are posted over here as they have been at CM for while.
If they are, then fine because they are helpful.
If not, perhaps someone can go to CM and copy the comps over here, or call and get them and post them in the new Phil Steele/NC to begin soon.
Thread, which will begin shortly or in an entirely separate thread.
Of course, if no one chooses to do it, I can do it as I call the comp. line each day in any event to get the comp. message.
It would help a bit though if someone else did it.
I am not sure if the daily NC football comps are posted over here as they have been at CM for while.
If they are, then fine because they are helpful.
If not, perhaps someone can go to CM and copy the comps over here, or call and get them and post them in the new Phil Steele/NC to begin soon.
Thread, which will begin shortly or in an entirely separate thread.
Of course, if no one chooses to do it, I can do it as I call the comp. line each day in any event to get the comp. message.
It would help a bit though if someone else did it.
In the late 90's early 2000's his plays were just money. I feel the books hired him and payed him a lot of money to give out the other side. It makes no sense. Look at his records on his games of the months and years 20 years ago. I would get his play at 11:15 on Saturday or Sunday. My Bookie would not take calls until 12:15, the line would jump 2 to 3 points on his 4 or 5 stars.
In the late 90's early 2000's his plays were just money. I feel the books hired him and payed him a lot of money to give out the other side. It makes no sense. Look at his records on his games of the months and years 20 years ago. I would get his play at 11:15 on Saturday or Sunday. My Bookie would not take calls until 12:15, the line would jump 2 to 3 points on his 4 or 5 stars.
Bengals-there is a lot to be said for what you stated.
I remember very well how the line jumped 2 or more points immediately after he released a big play, and like you say, in lots of cases one could not
even play the game until they got the adjusted shitty line.
As time went on though, that kind of stuff became less and less prevalent as the quality of the picks faded, and in some cases, there was actually
reverse line movement, beckoning/daring someone to bet the game because it was more likely the game would lose even with the more favorable
line.
As far as the books hiring him to give out the other side, well that's a possibility, but I am more inclined to believe that would happen
with the likes of Steve Budin, who comes from a bookmaking family and imo tied to big MOB gambling interests.
First, for anyone interested, there is a comp. on ext. 9 on OVER 41 tonight in the Bengals game.
The promo remains the same-Buy PowerSweep for $99 for one year and get this week's NFL Preseason for free, as well as The September Five Star and two Marquees
in August.
My suggestion is that if they don't want to give away the next three weeks of Preseason for free rather than just this week, then instead of
giving away two LESSER and UNRATED Marquees, they give away the first week of the RATED College Late Phones for free.
The promo remains the same-Buy PowerSweep for $99 for one year and get this week's NFL Preseason for free, as well as The September Five Star and two Marquees
in August.
My suggestion is that if they don't want to give away the next three weeks of Preseason for free rather than just this week, then instead of
giving away two LESSER and UNRATED Marquees, they give away the first week of the RATED College Late Phones for free.
