Hedge it, or let it ride?

[crudebar]

Nah I understand you perfectly well by your almighty math powers! -100 no juice is amazing. I also understand that no juice strategy got you shit on and ya didn’t get paid on some winning bets. So yeah, those paper IOU -100 bets are stupid and I am able to understand very well.

Talk. Talk. Talk.

You will talk yourself silly. You won't bet because you don't have the cash and you will get slaughtered.

edit: i can't believe what i am even saying is so controversial. Do you guys also take insurance in blackjack and never double down because it lowers your winning percentage on that particular hand?(on the double down) Or is this also up for debate?

 

[chrishansen]

Lastly. I have seen you and your long posts giving out your worldly opinion as if you have a clue about anything...

Trust me, you don't. You don't even understand simple stats and probabilities. Yet you claim to understand much more complicated areas in life. Give me a break.

Anytime you want to gamble against me in any form you just lmk little fella.

But you're just a big mouth with nothing to back it up.

And again you’re too stupid to realize BS and Sarcasm or anything else. It’s the RX a devils playground of misfits. Sometimes you make it fun or troll or debate just to take the other side

Great example is ole Bozzie. I enjoyed giving him shit over the LIV golf just as a little banter. Not really my opinions but just sparking a little banter. Or better yet, discussing in a thread just recently I posted the secret formula to winners in the NFL. A joke plenty of others picked up on yet your dumbass took it seriously lmao. You had no idea what the joke was about or who it was to. Yet you Came in with your $2000 let’s bet comment. You didn’t even understand what my post obtained to

Anytime someone on the internet saying they aren’t broke or taking the steps to say lil fella just implies the opposite of reality. Hence, you’re probably broke and a lil fella.

But math wizard, enlighten me on probability and stats. In a 5 team parlay are the probability variables independent or dependent when equating to the odds of the payouts? I’m curious to know since I don’t understand this shit

 

[chrishansen]

Id love to see Xander! can move it both ways, and esp comfortable drawing it-favorable at Augusta

Z has the length and hits his irons crazy high , great for those ice fast greens. dont like his short game at Augusta, same for Hovland

GL

not sure whom im taking, too early for me

Xander is due a major. Augusta fits his style well

Will Z short game is good just his putting 3 feet in lol. But he is way better on fast greens and courses not so much a birdie fest. Which negates his bad short putts. He has been a beast there in his couple of starts. Fits his eye and game I guess

 

[chrishansen]

Remember last summer , I think it was during the Open or shortly after about grabbing Tom Kim at 100/1 for all 4 majors. 125/1 @ the Open. Can't get half those price now.

Kim has game that’s for sure

Some pretty strong trends for Augusta past 12 years. Winner inside top 30 owgr, Winner already in season year, inside top 10 previous year at masters, first major. SG and driving distance inside top 40 or something. It’s about 13 things over past 12 years which produced the winner 11 of 12 years. I ran em all last year and it spit out 3 golfers who had all 13 trends. Cam Scottie and Vic. Interesting if anything.

 

[crudebar]

But math wizard, enlighten me on probability and stats. In a 5 team parlay are the probability variables independent or dependent when equating to the odds of the payouts? I’m curious to know since I don’t understand this shit

Gawd i hope that is rhetorical. If you can't even calculate the true pay-out odds of a parlay---well i am the idiot here...

Anyways, put some money down or kindly fuck off. It's like talking to a 1st grader.

Can't get mad at a 1st grader for not understanding stats and probabilities. So ill take the L on this one.

 

[chrishansen]

Gawd i hope that is rhetorical. If you can't even calculate the true pay-out odds of a parlay---well i am the idiot here...

Anyways, put some money down or kindly fuck off. It's like talking to a 1st grader.

Can't get mad at a 1st grader for not understanding stats and probabilities. So ill take the L on this one.

Apparently you can’t comprehend my question towards your genius math skills. Or provide the equation to this probability vs odds. Otherwise you would have answered my question lol. Not sure you would fair well vs a 1st grader tbh.

 

[Avocado33]

@chrishansen Any thoughts on Bengals/Bills this weekend?

Or the other games

 

[crudebar]

Apparently you can’t comprehend my question towards your genius math skills. Or provide the equation to this probability vs odds. Otherwise you would have answered my question lol. Not sure you would fair well vs a 1st grader tbh.

Good lord. What are you debating?

Sports Betting Lessons: Should You Hedge Your Bet?

Is hedging the last leg of a parlay a good idea? Should you hedge your future bet in order to secure a profit? The short answer is: NO!!! This article written by a university statistics professor from Canada (and sports betting expert!) provides evidence that hedging in sports betting is...

www.professormj.com

Hopefully it's simple enough and i don't have to take the time to write it all out.

But like i said. Next time you are losing a bet offer the book an amount less then their expect value on the win and see if they jump to accept so it "secures" their win.

This is math genius or rocket science. This is fundamentals.

 

[crudebar]

I'll try to explain this one last time as simplistic and as easy to understand as possible---consider it gambling 101 for professional beginners.

Your entire goal in any form of gambling is to print positive ev(expected value). All pit games come with negative ev. Outside of counting cards in blackjack. You can figure your theoretical loss by taking total amount wagered multiplied by the house edge. Example single 0 roulette has a house edge of 2.26 percent(going off memory here) for every $1,000 wagered your theoretical loss will be $22.6--- 99.7 percent of gamblers will fall within 3 standard deviations---ahead or below the -22.6, this is the luck factor. As you gamble more and more even being on the positive of 3 standard devitions won't be enough for you to break even.

Fun facts in the game of Blackjack---when you double(properly) you decreased your chances of winning but substantially increase your positive ev in that particular hand. When you take insurance on your blackjack you increase your chances of winning too 100 percent(obviously) but decrease your positive ev.

Ugh. Going to indepth.

Real quick. If you are 66/33 percent to win something and always take a buy out of 60/40 so you win 100 percent of that 60 percent----Is this really good business? This is also why almost all sportsbooks offer a buy-out amount on parlays. Because they are returning you less than your expected value(ev). You think books do this out of the goodness of their heart?

You need to understand stats and probabilities to have any sort of chance gambling---if you're doing it for more than entertainment.

If you want my quick run down of gambling here you go..

Once again this isn't debatable. This isn't about emotions, securing a win, etc..

This is about maximizing EV which maximizes profits or cuts down on expected losses.

 

[crudebar]

Meant to write this ISN'T math genius or rocket science.

 

[Loves2kickass]

ahhhhh.....so the post wasnt really asking for advice cuz you were ALWAYS gonna let it ride

It was more about "Hey look at me, I hit 5 out of 6 on a parlay and have one more to go......


Good job, over 2k views and almost 100 responses.

?

 

[Loves2kickass]

Who bets $20 on a two teamer with a -285 fave?

Hairy the Hat ?

 

[crudebar]

Apparently you can’t comprehend my question towards your genius math skills. Or provide the equation to this probability vs odds. Otherwise you would have answered my question lol. Not sure you would fair well vs a 1st grader tbh.

We done? Or you going to continue to debate how 2 +2 doesn't equal 4 and that's just my smug opinion?

But you at least got a like by Green Fruit who use to debate that it's mathematically correct to raise your unit bets when on a losing streak. Haha.

Gamblers Fallacies are hilarious. "It feels so right but it's so so so wrong."

 

[REDEYE]

Kim has game that’s for sure

Some pretty strong trends for Augusta past 12 years. Winner inside top 30 owgr, Winner already in season year, inside top 10 previous year at masters, first major. SG and driving distance inside top 40 or something. It’s about 13 things over past 12 years which produced the winner 11 of 12 years. I ran em all last year and it spit out 3 golfers who had all 13 trends. Cam Scottie and Vic. Interesting if anything.

I usually have 8-12 players I'm on for each major. This years Masters so far
Kim 100/1
C Smith 17.. Will have a 100/1 on him if Djokvich wins Aussie
Phil 400/1. Had to do it
Zalatoris 25/1. A few parlays on him also. Probably my biggest winner
Matsuyama 45/1.
Young 46/1
Lowry 45/1
Morikawa 30/1. Best value imo
Fitzpatrick 35/1
Think I have Schauflee in a parlay at DK

 

[chrishansen]

@chrishansen Any thoughts on Bengals/Bills this weekend?

Or the other games

Curious the bengals OL issues and severity. Who plays who doesn’t and if so the true health of who does. Joe Brrrr is gangsta and can work well off a bad OL.

Bills run game has come around. Before and early season I question if they can run well enough and if they had the secondary pieces. Not sure the status of Elam

Guess -4.5 bills still. I’d like some clarity on Bengals OL before picking a side

Niners-3 not a cowboys backer on the road. Dak tuff to trust sometimes. Boys secondary a bit leaky imo. Niners two tuff tackles may be a problem vs boys pressure scheme. Plus the strong run game Niners throws out backs that pressure off.

Quinn DC is Cover 1 guy. Heavy pressure guy also. Seeing past few years a bunch of cover 4 but he sticks to 1. Going to see a lot of man to man single high 1 in that game. Pretty flexible Defense but if their is a weakness it’s PA and a team like SF style. That single high safety better be good and man corners good. Otherwise Debo, Brandon and George will pop off huge plays.

You could compare philly and NYG to SF somewhat similar D and O. Niners more outside zone team and PA. Eagles Giants more Spread RPO. And defense is similar scheme wise. Niners heavy pressure team. If trying to draw somewhat comparisons as to what to expect out of Dallas

The Purdy kid is calm. Big game but kid has a ton of experience especially at Iowa st on some good teams. Not sure he is affected too much by the stage with his demeanor. And SF style protects him well also.

Just haven’t been impressed with Dallas this year. Score may say one thing but vs Titans Redskins Colts Texans late in season was horrible. Even the depleted lions gave em fits before they got healthy. Packers beat em also a game they had no business blowing. An aggressive D can backfire vs a Niners style O. They will misdirection and PA and if fairly successful it’s going to be a lot of levels 2 n 3 plays vs aggressive D.

Matchups wise and on paper I think it’s more -6.5 SF than -3 imo. But that’s why they play the games. Just my opinions GL

 

[chrishansen]

Hairy the Hat ?

Somebody in this thread did. They know who. Not knocking the amount to each their own. Or even the plays. To each their own. But all this hedge and odds and casinos do this and losing value in the thread I found it funny that’s what stat and value genius wager.

Juice bar doesn’t parlay anyway. It’s -3 to -2.5 and ML -7 to -6 and ml and tease -3 to -9 teams. Guy catches shit but the old grumpy head usually has tight lil core on his teasers and does well.

 

[chrishansen]

I usually have 8-12 players I'm on for each major. This years Masters so far
Kim 100/1
C Smith 17.. Will have a 100/1 on him if Djokvich wins Aussie
Phil 400/1. Had to do it
Zalatoris 25/1. A few parlays on him also. Probably my biggest winner
Matsuyama 45/1.
Young 46/1
Lowry 45/1
Morikawa 30/1. Best value imo
Fitzpatrick 35/1
Think I have Schauflee in a parlay at DK

Lowry is a sneaky play! Like the odds there

And I agree Morikawa has great odds 30-1

Nice looking card!

 

[Ricboff]

Lowry is a gamer , and SOLID short game

Morikawa , hopefully, doesnt have too much scar tissue from Maui. WTF was THAT! holy shit, the dude just went into meltdown mode. Going to have a rebound yr if he puts like he did at Maui. Has worked on a swing change/tech for short game pitching . To be less handsy more like Stricker--that kinda chnage is put the test when heat is on , Sunday at Maui showed its a work in progress

 

[REDEYE]

Lowry is a gamer , and SOLID short game

Morikawa , hopefully, doesnt have too much scar tissue from Maui. WTF was THAT! holy shit, the dude just went into meltdown mode. Going to have a rebound yr if he puts like he did at Maui. Has worked on a swing change/tech for short game pitching . To be less handsy more like Stricker--that kinda chnage is put the test when heat is on , Sunday at Maui showed its a work in progress

That was ugly. Hopefully he gets that part of his game back in control. Close to 3 months before the Masters. Should be able to get it out of his system.

 

[bigbet1234]

Thanks for more of your great insight and opinions! You always have the answer and correct way of winning via strategy. Look forward to more of your excellent handicapping advice as the write ups and plays you provide hit at a solid winning percentage.

He’s fucking annoying, eh? Wouldn’t we all love to be as insightful as this guy??