There actually are rare instances where hedging could be +EV move
Example would be a dramatic price change of that 6th leg. Maybe both QBs are suddenly ruled out and total drops a bit. Sometimes the initial change is understated, and so there could be some value in hedging at a relatively cheap price for under45.5 before total drops even more
Extreme/rare example but one that exists
Also EV in general is not the end all be all for one off situations like this
Example would be a dramatic price change of that 6th leg. Maybe both QBs are suddenly ruled out and total drops a bit. Sometimes the initial change is understated, and so there could be some value in hedging at a relatively cheap price for under45.5 before total drops even more
Extreme/rare example but one that exists
Also EV in general is not the end all be all for one off situations like this
A one off. Lol. Yes this was his only bet/parlay and he will never gamble again.
You could also argue that in a theoretical world he is always a 66/33 favorite so it's always correct to take 60/40 that way he is just always stacking cash and avoiding variance/risk of ruin in the process.
EV is the end all be all. Unless your a fruit that gambles above ur means/bankroll. In that sense ur an amateur and entertainment gambler who is just lying to themselves.
At lest Hansen understood he was in 1st grade...eventually.
And I understand I am going off as a prick. But really haven't a clue what u guys are arguing. Nobody is telling you how to gamble I am just telling you the correct way to maximize returns and for strange reasons this is getting push back. It's math. Not my opinion.
But good luck with your gambling and ill leave it at that.
You could also argue that in a theoretical world he is always a 66/33 favorite so it's always correct to take 60/40 that way he is just always stacking cash and avoiding variance/risk of ruin in the process.
EV is the end all be all. Unless your a fruit that gambles above ur means/bankroll. In that sense ur an amateur and entertainment gambler who is just lying to themselves.
At lest Hansen understood he was in 1st grade...eventually.
And I understand I am going off as a prick. But really haven't a clue what u guys are arguing. Nobody is telling you how to gamble I am just telling you the correct way to maximize returns and for strange reasons this is getting push back. It's math. Not my opinion.
But good luck with your gambling and ill leave it at that.
Just to clear up any confusion this is with sports betting.
Of course they are opportunities in poker to take a -ev play or to avoid the best +ev to take advantage of a player later for a higher +ev play...
But one can go through the charts themselves of ev and exploitable strategies. Just the fundamentals of sports betting seems to be lost here.
Of course they are opportunities in poker to take a -ev play or to avoid the best +ev to take advantage of a player later for a higher +ev play...
But one can go through the charts themselves of ev and exploitable strategies. Just the fundamentals of sports betting seems to be lost here.
great line on Kim, yikes, nice
4:02'. This is on the backside Sunday -- his mind froze. Couldnt commit , didnt trust the new swing...look how deep a divot he made, lol. He has the very same shot again, pretty much does the same thing but commits look at the size of that divot-crazy steep,handsy -not at all like Stricker. This HAS to be sorted before Augusta--those greens?
not going to lie: that's something we do
Many coaches still like to coach off feel. It's ridiculous. That's how you end up with 2 time outs remaining and only 8 seconds left on the clock when you started the poss. with 2 times outs and 1:40(or whatever it was in the Bengals-Ravens game)
sports has come a far way though---
4th and 26 game---Packers had ball at eagles 40 facing 4th and inches with around 2 min left and----PUNT. You would see this happen 0 percent of time today but was kinda still the standard back in '05.( or whatever year that game was played)
NBA 3 pointers.
MLB teams no longer caring about the strike out. No longer bunting people over to 2nd(lol).
Don't get me wrong this is game theory and a lot of it does take away from the enjoyment of watching sports. But what can you do---have people pretend they don't know the best ways to win their particular contests? In baseball this is the worst--the shift and strike outs, along with figuring stealing bases is a highly negative play(so no longer do that) has taken away from the entertainment factor. No question.
sports has come a far way though---
4th and 26 game---Packers had ball at eagles 40 facing 4th and inches with around 2 min left and----PUNT. You would see this happen 0 percent of time today but was kinda still the standard back in '05.( or whatever year that game was played)
NBA 3 pointers.
MLB teams no longer caring about the strike out. No longer bunting people over to 2nd(lol).
Don't get me wrong this is game theory and a lot of it does take away from the enjoyment of watching sports. But what can you do---have people pretend they don't know the best ways to win their particular contests? In baseball this is the worst--the shift and strike outs, along with figuring stealing bases is a highly negative play(so no longer do that) has taken away from the entertainment factor. No question.
I agree. Parlays are like throwing money away but some people hit them.
Youre a moron if you take any books cashout offer. If you really want to get off the original bet you can fully hedge it yourself at another book and lock in more profit every time vs the cashout. I have yet to see a cashout offer ever be greater than what you can make by simply fully hedging it out yourself.
I agree with everyone that said to manually bet those 6 games vs putting them in a parlay for more value. Personally in this situation where each game will probably be finished before the start of the next one I wouldve bet each on separately with a half press or 3/4 press to lock in some profits along the way. I only play parlays when there are several games starting at the same time or if some games wont be over before the start of others.
I just showed you the math where that last leg of the parlay essentially turned into a straight bet on the cowboys over risking about 19x the original parlay amount. Youre probably right that most people wont like a game 19x more than another but youre assuming that all the legs of the parlay are the same sport or that people bet the same unit sizes on all sports. Its common for people to bet different unit sizes on different sports so one sports unit size may be 10x 20x or even 50x vs another sport. So if you have a mixed sport parlay you might end up with the last leg of the parlay on a sport you bet the heaviest on
