They're
Lol. Zinger. He said we can’t use his results as proof he’s wrong. Imagine that. Use this diet I’m on and lose 20 pounds.. wait a second you’ve been on that diet and gained 10… yeah but you can’t use that as proof I’m wrong.
for the record I usually hedge as well, but that does give the edge away I’m smart enough to understand that. You made a 4 team parlay that pays 14oo. Even those odds aren’t correct, by edging off half after winning 3, you are giving up odds to the house. A lot of what’s said on this thread from both sides I think is correct. Just what your looking for out of the bet
The amount of money at stake is different for every individual
That $500 to one person might be like $5,000 to others
If someone really needs the money, they should hedge
If they don't, let it ride
It's really that simple
I'll try to explain this one last time as simplistic and as easy to understand as possible---consider it gambling 101 for professional beginners.
Your entire goal in any form of gambling is to print positive ev(expected value). All pit games come with negative ev. Outside of counting cards in blackjack. You can figure your theoretical loss by taking total amount wagered multiplied by the house edge. Example single 0 roulette has a house edge of 2.26 percent(going off memory here) for every $1,000 wagered your theoretical loss will be $22.6--- 99.7 percent of gamblers will fall within 3 standard deviations---ahead or below the -22.6, this is the luck factor. As you gamble more and more even being on the positive of 3 standard devitions won't be enough for you to break even.
Fun facts in the game of Blackjack---when you double(properly) you decreased your chances of winning but substantially increase your positive ev in that particular hand. When you take insurance on your blackjack you increase your chances of winning too 100 percent(obviously) but decrease your positive ev.
Ugh. Going to indepth.
Real quick. If you are 66/33 percent to win something and always take a buy out of 60/40 so you win 100 percent of that 60 percent----Is this really good business? This is also why almost all sportsbooks offer a buy-out amount on parlays. Because they are returning you less than your expected value(ev). You think books do this out of the goodness of their heart?
You need to understand stats and probabilities to have any sort of chance gambling---if you're doing it for more than entertainment.
Your entire goal in any form of gambling is to print positive ev(expected value). All pit games come with negative ev. Outside of counting cards in blackjack. You can figure your theoretical loss by taking total amount wagered multiplied by the house edge. Example single 0 roulette has a house edge of 2.26 percent(going off memory here) for every $1,000 wagered your theoretical loss will be $22.6--- 99.7 percent of gamblers will fall within 3 standard deviations---ahead or below the -22.6, this is the luck factor. As you gamble more and more even being on the positive of 3 standard devitions won't be enough for you to break even.
Fun facts in the game of Blackjack---when you double(properly) you decreased your chances of winning but substantially increase your positive ev in that particular hand. When you take insurance on your blackjack you increase your chances of winning too 100 percent(obviously) but decrease your positive ev.
Ugh. Going to indepth.
Real quick. If you are 66/33 percent to win something and always take a buy out of 60/40 so you win 100 percent of that 60 percent----Is this really good business? This is also why almost all sportsbooks offer a buy-out amount on parlays. Because they are returning you less than your expected value(ev). You think books do this out of the goodness of their heart?
You need to understand stats and probabilities to have any sort of chance gambling---if you're doing it for more than entertainment.
I can't believe that I am reading things about greed, emotions, increasing winning percentages. This has nothing to do with the business side of gambling. Nothing.
It's only expected value and how to maximize long term.
I am happy that makes me a prick.
Stats and probabilities aren't an opinion or to be debated. Its fact.
It's only expected value and how to maximize long term.
I am happy that makes me a prick.
Stats and probabilities aren't an opinion or to be debated. Its fact.
lol
Everyone has their opinion. Fact is I throw parlays each week for fun. Doesn't take away from my actual bets. I bet dallas ML yesterday and won $500.
Gist of this thread and the only answer is that there is no right or wrong answer. Depends on your goals and why you bet. If you're goal is to simply guarantee/maximize profit each week then fine. At the end I lost $40 bucks on a chance to win 1400. I'll do it every time the same way at these levels
Everyone has their opinion. Fact is I throw parlays each week for fun. Doesn't take away from my actual bets. I bet dallas ML yesterday and won $500.
Gist of this thread and the only answer is that there is no right or wrong answer. Depends on your goals and why you bet. If you're goal is to simply guarantee/maximize profit each week then fine. At the end I lost $40 bucks on a chance to win 1400. I'll do it every time the same way at these levels
Nice hit on the Boys
From a pure statistical analysis perspective, over the long term hedging is disadvantageous as it lowers expected profit.
That said, playing parlays is usually just an entertainment thing anyway -- usually very small % of overall action to compliment larger bets on the single legs.
If for whatever reason you see an appealing guaranteed profit amount or have wet feet about the final leg then might be worth it to go ahead and hedge
If you are regularly in the position of having first 5 legs of a 6-teamer cash, then you're probably doing something right
That said, playing parlays is usually just an entertainment thing anyway -- usually very small % of overall action to compliment larger bets on the single legs.
If for whatever reason you see an appealing guaranteed profit amount or have wet feet about the final leg then might be worth it to go ahead and hedge
If you are regularly in the position of having first 5 legs of a 6-teamer cash, then you're probably doing something right
100 agree with you. Well said.From a pure statistical analysis perspective, over the long term hedging is disadvantageous as it lowers expected profit.
That said, playing parlays is usually just an entertainment thing anyway -- usually very small % of overall action to compliment larger bets on the single legs.
If for whatever reason you see an appealing guaranteed profit amount or have wet feet about the final leg then might be worth it to go ahead and hedge
If you are regularly in the position of having first 5 legs of a 6-teamer cash, then you're probably doing something right
Let us know next time you're about to hit something at 45-1 pizza delivery guy.
I dig this sorta post...would have been a nice hit actually.
5-6...well done... Are you the same @chauncy that also posted at cappersmall a while back?
