FYI: MORE INSIGHTS AND INFO ON THIS GAME FROM OTHER KNOWLEDGEABLE CAPPERS.....NO STUPID OR WORTHLESS COMMENTS WERE MADE, AS YOU WILL SEE.
.....USE THEM TO HELP YOU OUT IN WHATEVER WAY YOU WISH....TFWIW!
forget Hawaii for sec.
--Boise struggled @ UTP won by 17 -non cover
--home vs BYU they won by 1 pt- non cover
--home vs SMU they won by 18-non cover(**** wasnt it like -38)
-@ tulsa won by 3 -non cover
then Fresno
Forget Hawaii what is Boise doing to make you think 21 points is a great bet??? In some way shape or form Hawaii will score 21-28pts minimum! Youtr saying that w/o a doubt they will score 45+pts when they barely reached taht mark twice in teh past 5 games against soem teams just as bad defensively as Hawaii-
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#2 passing offense vs #103 pass d.
give me the points
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Hawaii is averaging 24.5 ppg in two road games this year. And in spite of Boise's struggles, this is still the best defensive team they've played all year. Also the toughest venue and on national TV, which helps Boise, not Hawaii.
Forget about running on Boise. They have one of the best run defenses in the country and proved against Fresno that they can rush the passer and still defend the run.
They also have 12 (count 'em, 12) injured defensive players listed this week. Even if they play, they're still hurt, and won't be as effective as healthy defenders.
Taking Hawaii is suicide. Lay off if you don't like Boise
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I am currently looking at the hawaii website and it shows chang in order of games this year- 302,363,378,322,294,318 pass yards per game--363@rice, 294@utep(road games). He is consistant with his pass #'s and will put up the same again, its the other players you have to think about
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My only comment will be that everyone was against Bosie St last week with fresno and most were on Hawaii at home. Funny thing everyone lost cause Boise covered and Hawaii didnt. Not everyone you know what I mean. Now we get a okay line that is being bet up heavily to over 3TDS.
What do I always say cap as if the last game didnt happen most of the times its just a blip. Did Boise impress anyone on defense last week? Not me. Pinegar and Fresno St probably average about half what Hawaii does. Chang and co should be able to move the ball. You move the ball the other team doesnt have time of possession on there side.
I wont lay 22pts with Boise St and probably would lay off the game all together. Just remember must didnt think Hawaii would lose @ UTEP getting 3 points now its 22 pts. Boise is 1-2 ATS when laying more then 10pts the cover was game 1 vs idaho.
Just think there isnt much value in Boise St.
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Everyone knows about Boise's bad pass defense (ranked 103rd, 265 yds/game). But the thing is they haven't even played GOOD passing teams! Boise's 7 opponents are averaging a combined 221 yds/game in passing offense. Hawaii's pass offense averages 347.3 yds/game.
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Defensively, boise st has a nice run D but their pass D is terrible, giving up huge plays and almost costing them games against tulsa and byu. Hawaii should have success passing on them and we all know that passing teams stop the clock and lengthen the game. Im guessing hawaii scores between 20-35 pts in this game, some of which in garbage time most likely, and i can easily see the final total hitting 80+.
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honestly, i think the over would be an easier play. there is no way hawaii is going to stop bosie and after watching byu throw all over bosie, hawaii is atleast going to put up 20+ points. boise is not the covering machine they used to be.
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There is no doubt in my mind Boise will score 45 here. I think closer to 60.
The only team whose defense is comparable to Hawaii's where they failed to was SMU. They had 38 after 3 quarters and chose to give time to the second team, which didn't play very well. They won't do the same against Hawaii because they respect Hawaii's potential to come back too much.
BYU and Fresno St. are both MUCH superior to Hawaii defensively.
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By the way, I'm not conceding Hawaii 21 points. I think they'll probably get it through the back door, but I also think all this fretting about Boise's pass defense is overplayed a little. A lot has to do with the pressure style they play, which is actually effective against a team like Hawaii. BYU was able to throw deep because they did a good job of pass blocking. Hawaii isn't really set up that way because they typically put 5 in the pattern. They're a spread team, something Boise's man defense should work better against.
Don't count on Hawaii being particularly efficient either. Look for Chang to get busted in the chops a couple of times and his receivers to get held up on the line. This is a road game for Hawaii after all, and I've seen them fail to get 21 on the road against worse teams than Boise (three times last year, with a better team).
Another overlooked factor is that teams throw a lot against Boise because they're behind and they can't run anyway. Pookela points out that Boise opponents typically outperform their season yardage averages when playing Boise, but I'd bet if you figured out the completion percentages and yards per attempt there wouldn't be much difference. Boise's pass defense is average, but not bad. Look for Chang to throw for 300+, but they better be cashing in with TD's, or this gets out of hand quickly.
Another thing to think about is Boise's attitude about Hawaii. Are they really geared toward this game? My guess is yes, despite the fact that they're coming off the Fresno game that they obviously spent a lot of time preparing for. For one thing, this is a nationally televised feature game. They always target games like that. This aint Tulsa on Saturday afternoon with no TV. Don't forget what they did to Oregon St. and Fresno, the two most logical comparison games.....
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I don't think anyone is expecting Hawaii to shut down Boise. But i'm curious as to why you think Boise can shut down Hawaii?
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If it is bad weather, that can only favor Boise. Boise will stop the run and force TOs in the passing game. Just my scenario, but 21 points is a big number. Detmer passing will be eclipsed here or elsewhere so I do not think it will be an issue unless media types play it up. This will only incense Boise to play better on national tv. My lean is to Boise but most cappers here are correct to lay-off or play the over. This is just too many points to lay even if there may be a possibility of a rout. And a rout it will take to cover so many points, even with HI injuries.
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Hawaii's receivers have been dropping balls. And even with that...2nd in the nation in passing yds/game and 7th in total pass yards. Is that not "good?"
I also think the total yards you allow is more important than the comp% and yds/attempt. But i checked out the stats for you anyway:
Tulsa averages 6.10 yds/att on the season...
8.16 vs Boise.
UTEP averages 7.12 yds/att on the season...
10.59 vs Boise.
Fresno averages 5.38 yds/att on the season...
5.70 vs Boise.
BYU averages 6.97 yds/att on the season...
11.14 vs Boise.
Idaho averages 5.79 yds/att on the season...3.14 vs Boise.
Oregon State averages 6.44 yds/att on the season...
9.79 vs Boise.
SMU averages 5.82 yds/att on the season...
7.11 vs Boise.
6 out of 7...Only lowly Idaho didn't do better against Boise.
You were right about the comp%...not too much different. But if you're giving up more yards/attempt and more passing yards overall...and you're about to play a team that loves to pass...i just think it's gonna be hard to stop.
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I think I'm going to take the over and pray that it rains footballs and touchdowns.
BSU's pass D has been far from impressive (understatement), and who cares if they can play the run? Hawaii ran more last game than they usually do, but I don't think they're concerned with having to pass alot, particularly with Chang having a chance to break the record on national TV.
I see this turning into a shootout that will take 4 hours to complete because of all the clock stoppages for incomplete passes, touchdowns, and first downs.
Plenty of time and opportunity to score. Hawaii will be throwing to break the record, and BSU will be trying to beat Hawaii down to move up in the polls and the BCS
