Has sharp money surpassed square money?

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I love how this thread formed the first Sunday in five weeks that the books lost money in the NFL.


Are you suggesting that the linesmakers misjudged the New York Giants and the Baltimore Ravens?:think2:
 

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Forget to add, Not all square bet $25-200

There are square that bet $500 Plus a game

How about the squares who bet $5000+ a game ?

It's basic 101 of sports betting. If you continue to pick 7-10 games a week, you have to be hitting a higher % over the long run to make money, than if you pick 3 of your top plays each week.

Knowing the value of a line is also key. If the player can't see the diff of -2.5 vs -3 he is indeed a square.

Last but not least it picking winners. If you can continue to pick the winner of the games you play (no spread), you would be amazed how many time you can win without the point spread coming into play.

The way I see it .... Squares pick losers .... Sharps pick more winners.

I became a sharp today cuz my only 2 straight sides were NY Giants and Baltimore. Both Won. Both against the "so called sharp plays"

For all I know, I'll become a Square again tomorrow if my "Arizona -9.5 +100" doesnt come in.

We will see
:toast:
 

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Do you Understand Why the those Lines in Both of those game Were, what they Were ??


My understanding is not relevant, what is relevant is that in both cases a walk up bettor is going to lay their money on the Giants and Ravens.
 
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My understanding is not relevant, what is relevant is that in both cases a walk up bettor is going to lay their money on the Giants and Ravens.


Ok, So was the Line on these two games "Off" in your eyes ?

If so, what was the first thing you checked ?

Please note, that I am Not picking on you. I just want you to learn something.
 

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Don't Answer soswalter, I know You know.

Let's see if anyone else knows

I'm a square .. so I'll take a shot. Give me the answer if I'm wrong. LOL!

- It has to do with key numbers, around the magic 3
- also the teasers crossing key numbers 3, 7 and 10
 

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... If you continue to pick 7-10 games a week, you have to be hitting a higher % over the long run to make money, than if you pick 3 of your top plays each week...

This is, of course, nonsense. Against -110 juice you need to hit 53+ % to make money no matter if you play 3 games a week or 10. And if you manage to do that you will obviously make a lot more money if you make more bets, assuming the unit size stays the same.
What is correct, though, (and what you probably mean) is that it will be a lot harder to hit 53+ % when playing ten games per week as it's unlikely that there are truly so many lines with value.
 
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I'm a square .. so I'll take a shot. Give me the answer if I'm wrong. LOL!

- It has to do with key numbers, around the magic 3
- also the teasers crossing key numbers 3, 7 and 10


LOL, Good Answer ! :103631605

But Not the one I was looking for :drink:

When a # looks off, it could be Many Reasons. But the Biggest one is
BALANCE

The Books will keep a # for Balance. They can get Tons of action on One side, so they put up a number that will make the Avg. Joe THINK, something is wrong.

One of the first things a Bettor will do is Look to see if anyone is Out.

But there is No Key players Out, so what gives ?? Something might be wrong here.

The Linemakers will put a Number out there, that will give Equal Action.

You have to remember, the Book wants and Makes a Lot of Money Just on the Juice Alone.

Of course there are Other Key reasons that go along with the Above.
 

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This is, of course, nonsense. Against -110 juice you need to hit 53+ % to make money no matter if you play 3 games a week or 10. And if you manage to do that you will obviously make a lot more money if you make more bets, assuming the unit size stays the same.
What is correct, though, (and what you probably mean) is that it will be a lot harder to hit 53+ % when playing ten games per week as it's unlikely that there are truly so many lines with value.

Your second point was what I was trying to say. Also being about to get less than -110 on your plays is key.

Love to be a bookie giving my clients -110 and then turning around and laying it off for less. I would make money even if my clients won. :103631605
 

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Ok, So was the Line on these two games "Off" in your eyes ?

If so, what was the first thing you checked ?

Please note, that I am Not picking on you. I just want you to learn something.

As a general public bettor, there is no checking. I simply feel that the Giants will beat the Eagles and the Ravens will beat the Texans. Since the Giants are +3, maybe I set my margarita down and call a friend to see if Eli Manning is out.
 

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LOL, Good Answer ! :103631605

But Not the one I was looking for :drink:

When a # looks off, it could be Many Reasons. But the Biggest one is
BALANCE

The Books will keep a # for Balance. They can get Tons of action on One side, so they put up a number that will make the Avg. Joe THINK, something is wrong.

One of the first things a Bettor will do is Look to see if anyone is Out.

But there is No Key players Out, so what gives ?? Something might be wrong here.

The Linemakers will put a Number out there, that will give Equal Action.

You have to remember, the Book wants and Makes a Lot of Money Just on the Juice Alone.

Of course there are Other Key reasons that go along with the Above.

Good points, but again basic 101 is getting equal action. I thought you were looking for something else.

But ... as mentioned above .. how much stock do you think/or know of linesmakers taking into account teasers that cross key numbers 3,7,10,14 when putting out a line ?

I would think that some considerations goes into it.
 

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two sharps do not always think alike!
then it gets to, who is sharper, therefore, the point is that whoever wins IS sharper.

even sharp angles change, like taking double digit dogs on principle, NOT with the pats last year....

you are only as sharp as your last bet
 

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two sharps do not always think alike! then it gets to, who is sharper, therefore, the point is that whoever wins IS sharper.

So true ... again most over used word with sportbetting "sharp"

:toast:
 
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As a general public bettor, there is no checking. I simply feel that the Giants will beat the Eagles and the Ravens will beat the Texans. Since the Giants are +3, maybe I set my margarita down and call a friend to see if Eli Manning is out.


Ok, That was Today. Let's go back a week

Did you bet the Jacksonville at Cincinnati game ?

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo game ?

Detroit at Chicago game ?

Tampa Bay at Kansas City game ?

Green Bay at Tennessee game ?

Miami at Denver game ?

Pittsburgh at Washington game ?

and this past thursday

Denver at Cleveland game ?

All of the Above had Sharp Action, did you play any of them ?
If so Who did you have and Why ?

Did you lose last week ? Overall ?
 
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Good points, but again basic 101 is getting equal action. I thought you were looking for something else.

But ... as mentioned above .. how much stock do you think/or know of linesmakers taking into account teasers that cross key numbers 3,7,10,14 when putting out a line ?

I would think that some considerations goes into it.


Yes, Great consideration goes into Key #'s, more so when a Book WON'T move that line. ( Pinny is Big on that )
 

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