arty: night GURU
Ah yes, the title of "experiment" gets lifted from my threads starting next week barring collapse in these last two games... but I don't figure on betting enough units to bring me down that far...
Scott... My flaw with this is still that I don't know the actual ins and outs of the game. I'm learning a lot of the players and their value on the field, penalties, and such... But there are still many rules and concepts I don't understand, and the way the playoffs shake up in one of them. I still am concerned that this might prove a drawback to me, as I am only using sheer holistic statistical analysis with some intuition listening to games that I feel is still lacking in the capability to actually make this work for a season, but I'm very confident now that I'll net a profit this year, and that's I could have asked for.
Thanks Sharky. Extra beer on me tonight... :toast: (promise when I turn 21, if any of you ever come to Tallahassee, beers are on me)
--AFLGuru
Scott... My flaw with this is still that I don't know the actual ins and outs of the game. I'm learning a lot of the players and their value on the field, penalties, and such... But there are still many rules and concepts I don't understand, and the way the playoffs shake up in one of them. I still am concerned that this might prove a drawback to me, as I am only using sheer holistic statistical analysis with some intuition listening to games that I feel is still lacking in the capability to actually make this work for a season, but I'm very confident now that I'll net a profit this year, and that's I could have asked for.
Thanks Sharky. Extra beer on me tonight... :toast: (promise when I turn 21, if any of you ever come to Tallahassee, beers are on me)
--AFLGuru
Unfortunately, Sharky, I very rarely get live games on TV here in Tallahassee... in fact, it's only 1. Every Friday we get a 2 hour condensed version on usually the night before's game, which I sometimes catch, and others don't.
As for the game itself... The first few weeks I wondered how the scores were getting in the 50s. It seemed impossible to physically average 5 yards per play... then again, my first listening experience WAS a Hamilton Ti-Cats game... But aside from that, many of the features or general concepts of the AFL translate to the Canadian game.
For example, the CFL is set up to benefit the offenses just like the AFL. Receivers can get a running start, and the offense has a yard of neutral zone. However, unlike the CFL, the AFL is a pure man on man game. The CFL has a lot more defensive schemes that can be executed. But just like the AFL, if you try running a zone, that leaves a ton of wide open field for a QB to pick apart. That's the problem Calgary ran into against BC all night... Dickinson just picking apart the zone time after time.
Pass rush seems to be at a premium in this game... as being bold and blitzing, usually leaving man on man coverage all over the field is ballsy, but usually seems to pay off. I haven't figured out why more teams don't send consistent blitzes. Just from what I've seen, even against a mobile QB, 6 men should be rushing on every play. This forces the offense's hand to make a play, instead of letting the defense getting picked apart, especially against the less-mobile QBs in the league. But to my dismay, betting against the Eskimos will only work if Ricky Ray has 6 men in his face all the time... as he's good enough for this league to just pick corners to shreads if they're sitting back. I understand not wanting to get beat deep in this league, but a sack is monsterous in the battle of field position in this league, and I don't know why more teams don't blitz more often.
Coolest thing about this game by far is the old-school NFL style goalposts on the goalline... closely followed by the single. The single makes strategy in this game incredibly complex at times. Calgary conceded a safety with 9 minutes left in the game tonight that they never recovered from... though during the 1st quarter taking the safety from your own 4 on 3rd down would make sense... but in a tie game with 9 minutes left, I think you've gotta try kicking the ball. Even if BC takes over at the Calgary 40, you've got a better shot of holding the lead from there than you do just conceding it...
Dunno why Neelon Green, Burris, and the other mobile QBs in this league don't pack it in and run more often. Seems like they're always trying to make the big play instead of moving the sticks.
I also don't understand why teams don't go with ultra-large packages at times, especially this Calgary team. Stick your 9 biggest mooses on the field with Burris, Reynolds, and Jenkins and dare the other team to not give up 5 yards a carry. Calgary sort of did that in the first half with 2 TEs and 2 RBs in the backfield and let Reynolds find holes... that was the 5 play, 91 yard drive that didn't feature a pass that put the Stamps up 14-3.
But from what I've heard, I can definitely get into this game. I love football in general, and even if it's on a 110 yard field with goofy looking sets, 2nd rate QBs, and WRs that were no more than kick returners in the NFL, I can get into it. The fact that some of these teams are incredibly predictable makes this much easier to cap.
Only two teams have caused me complete heartburn this year trying to figure out... Hamilton, who I'm convinced is still a team that can compete in the lackluster East with all of the talent they've got at WR, and Montreal... who should be running away from the East as it is, but can't beat crappy teams. Seems like I've got a decent enough read on the rest of these teams, and its shown so far in my records. I think the fade teams for the next few weeks are Toronto, Winnepeg, and Ottawa, and the ride teams are Calgary and Montreal... Saskatchewan in a few weeks...
And yes, I know I've bashed this Rider team to the ground so many times in the last 3-4 weeks or so... and I still think I'm right that this team is massively overrated... just like the Ottawa team that beat them tonight. But the Riders, after a trip into Montreal where I think they have another beating coming to them, travel to Ottawa and then a bye week before hosting BC, a game that could spell a large upset and put the Riders right back into the thick of things... but that starts a stretch of 4 out of 5 at home for the Riders, and the one road game being @ Winnepeg.... lots of games that can put the Riders back into it here, and my hope is that the Riders get embarassed next week @ Montreal, hopefully making them a 3-4 point dog @ overachieving Ottawa... Looking forward to getting back on this team's bandwagon soon.
Oh and another thing... I find injuries incredibly hard to track, especially in their relevence. I don't know enough names in this league to know who goes where and who means what to their teams... I'm working on it though... I can at least name all 9 starting QBs and at least 3-4 other guys on those teams, which is a significant upgrade from what I knew before I started this... I knew Ricky Ray was a starting QB in the CFL... that was about it...
--AFLGuru:toast:
As for the game itself... The first few weeks I wondered how the scores were getting in the 50s. It seemed impossible to physically average 5 yards per play... then again, my first listening experience WAS a Hamilton Ti-Cats game... But aside from that, many of the features or general concepts of the AFL translate to the Canadian game.
For example, the CFL is set up to benefit the offenses just like the AFL. Receivers can get a running start, and the offense has a yard of neutral zone. However, unlike the CFL, the AFL is a pure man on man game. The CFL has a lot more defensive schemes that can be executed. But just like the AFL, if you try running a zone, that leaves a ton of wide open field for a QB to pick apart. That's the problem Calgary ran into against BC all night... Dickinson just picking apart the zone time after time.
Pass rush seems to be at a premium in this game... as being bold and blitzing, usually leaving man on man coverage all over the field is ballsy, but usually seems to pay off. I haven't figured out why more teams don't send consistent blitzes. Just from what I've seen, even against a mobile QB, 6 men should be rushing on every play. This forces the offense's hand to make a play, instead of letting the defense getting picked apart, especially against the less-mobile QBs in the league. But to my dismay, betting against the Eskimos will only work if Ricky Ray has 6 men in his face all the time... as he's good enough for this league to just pick corners to shreads if they're sitting back. I understand not wanting to get beat deep in this league, but a sack is monsterous in the battle of field position in this league, and I don't know why more teams don't blitz more often.
Coolest thing about this game by far is the old-school NFL style goalposts on the goalline... closely followed by the single. The single makes strategy in this game incredibly complex at times. Calgary conceded a safety with 9 minutes left in the game tonight that they never recovered from... though during the 1st quarter taking the safety from your own 4 on 3rd down would make sense... but in a tie game with 9 minutes left, I think you've gotta try kicking the ball. Even if BC takes over at the Calgary 40, you've got a better shot of holding the lead from there than you do just conceding it...
Dunno why Neelon Green, Burris, and the other mobile QBs in this league don't pack it in and run more often. Seems like they're always trying to make the big play instead of moving the sticks.
I also don't understand why teams don't go with ultra-large packages at times, especially this Calgary team. Stick your 9 biggest mooses on the field with Burris, Reynolds, and Jenkins and dare the other team to not give up 5 yards a carry. Calgary sort of did that in the first half with 2 TEs and 2 RBs in the backfield and let Reynolds find holes... that was the 5 play, 91 yard drive that didn't feature a pass that put the Stamps up 14-3.
But from what I've heard, I can definitely get into this game. I love football in general, and even if it's on a 110 yard field with goofy looking sets, 2nd rate QBs, and WRs that were no more than kick returners in the NFL, I can get into it. The fact that some of these teams are incredibly predictable makes this much easier to cap.
Only two teams have caused me complete heartburn this year trying to figure out... Hamilton, who I'm convinced is still a team that can compete in the lackluster East with all of the talent they've got at WR, and Montreal... who should be running away from the East as it is, but can't beat crappy teams. Seems like I've got a decent enough read on the rest of these teams, and its shown so far in my records. I think the fade teams for the next few weeks are Toronto, Winnepeg, and Ottawa, and the ride teams are Calgary and Montreal... Saskatchewan in a few weeks...
And yes, I know I've bashed this Rider team to the ground so many times in the last 3-4 weeks or so... and I still think I'm right that this team is massively overrated... just like the Ottawa team that beat them tonight. But the Riders, after a trip into Montreal where I think they have another beating coming to them, travel to Ottawa and then a bye week before hosting BC, a game that could spell a large upset and put the Riders right back into the thick of things... but that starts a stretch of 4 out of 5 at home for the Riders, and the one road game being @ Winnepeg.... lots of games that can put the Riders back into it here, and my hope is that the Riders get embarassed next week @ Montreal, hopefully making them a 3-4 point dog @ overachieving Ottawa... Looking forward to getting back on this team's bandwagon soon.
Oh and another thing... I find injuries incredibly hard to track, especially in their relevence. I don't know enough names in this league to know who goes where and who means what to their teams... I'm working on it though... I can at least name all 9 starting QBs and at least 3-4 other guys on those teams, which is a significant upgrade from what I knew before I started this... I knew Ricky Ray was a starting QB in the CFL... that was about it...
--AFLGuru:toast:
I just don't see myself being able to play on the Eskimos tonight...
What I'm consider is some combination of under for the game + Hamilton under the total + Edmonton over the total in the 1st half... But I can't bring myself to betting on this team to cover two TDs until they prove they want to hold a lead.
What I'm consider is some combination of under for the game + Hamilton under the total + Edmonton over the total in the 1st half... But I can't bring myself to betting on this team to cover two TDs until they prove they want to hold a lead.
i am betting the eskies "on the come"
i feel this is a dominance g
changing qb's on the road is usually a disaster; but then there is a revenge factor here too
more of a gambling bet than anything; since my br is high due to
following the mighty guru to victory in bc totals last nite
gl guru and all
guru is THA MAN:toast:
8Ate... I kinda get all of the same feelings you do about this game, so I'm gonna give the Eskies a shot in the 1st half with their team total and in the 1st quarter... slightly ballsy play for the quarter, but again, I'll take shots that the Eskies can open up well at home. You will see a play on Hamilton under at some likely in this one.
Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter (1.5 units -190)
Edmonton over 17 1st half (1.5 units -105)
Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter (1.5 units -190)
Edmonton over 17 1st half (1.5 units -105)
Basically the moneyline bet is on the Eskimos to score a TD in the first 15 minutes. If they do that, this bet is at absolute worst a push. After seeing the sky open with points last night in BC, a lower scoring affair wouldn't really surprise me, but the hope is that the Eskimos come out early and often, at which point my bets will be decided before they become the 2nd half Eskimos. We'll see how things work out.
I'll say this... Edmonton allows the fewest rushing yards per game and fewest rushing yards per carry... But even with that being said, they've also only been run on 81 times. They should get run on much more than that tonight.
Hamilton also allows the most yards on the ground per game, but they've been lit up by the Riders once already for a ton of rushing yards. On paper defense vs. defense, this line is right. Hamilton allows 80 yards more a game rushing than the Eskimos do.
But on the offensive side of the ball...
Okay, you know what... maybe this isn't such a great line after all... Hamilton has fewer rushing yards per game than Edmonton too...
Hamilton's rushing attack finally got going last week against the Lions, and I think the only way that they're going to be success in scoring points tonight is by running the ball... Danny Mac should be replaced by halftime in this one.
So I guess this line screams "look at the statistics before you bet dumba$$!"... got a bit suckered into this one without looking at the stats, and I probably should have only put 1 unit on it, but it's a bet I believe I'd still make.
Hamilton also allows the most yards on the ground per game, but they've been lit up by the Riders once already for a ton of rushing yards. On paper defense vs. defense, this line is right. Hamilton allows 80 yards more a game rushing than the Eskimos do.
But on the offensive side of the ball...
Okay, you know what... maybe this isn't such a great line after all... Hamilton has fewer rushing yards per game than Edmonton too...
Hamilton's rushing attack finally got going last week against the Lions, and I think the only way that they're going to be success in scoring points tonight is by running the ball... Danny Mac should be replaced by halftime in this one.
So I guess this line screams "look at the statistics before you bet dumba$$!"... got a bit suckered into this one without looking at the stats, and I probably should have only put 1 unit on it, but it's a bet I believe I'd still make.
Whole bunch of small plays in this game that might come back and haunt me a bit... but I think I've got all of my bases covered here, and hopefully this game plays out as I believe it does in my head... Look a lot like last week's game against Ottawa. Edmonton will jump out to a 17-3 lead, maybe something like 21-6 at the half, then let the Ti-Cats sneak back in it, clinching it with a late score of some sort.... 31-20 Eskies... that'd be a perfect world... Ultimately, I'm aware it probably won't work like that, but I've still got enough bases covered that it'll be difficult to get crushed tonight. Promise this is all I'm putting on this game until the 2nd half.
Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter (1.5 units -190)
Edmonton over 17 1st half (1.5 units -105)
Hamilton to have more net rushing yards (2 units +173)
Hamilton under 21 (1 unit -125)
Edmonton/Hamilton under 54 (1.5 units -104)
Maybe I'll get lucky tonight and pull off a nice sweep, but I'm not as optimistic about this play as some of my previous in this league, and I'm afraid this is gonna be a sequence of events I regret betting later on. But if all goes well, the Eskies come out sharp, and if that happens, I shouldn't get myself into that much trouble in this one.
See you all tonight.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter (1.5 units -190)
Edmonton over 17 1st half (1.5 units -105)
Hamilton to have more net rushing yards (2 units +173)
Hamilton under 21 (1 unit -125)
Edmonton/Hamilton under 54 (1.5 units -104)
Maybe I'll get lucky tonight and pull off a nice sweep, but I'm not as optimistic about this play as some of my previous in this league, and I'm afraid this is gonna be a sequence of events I regret betting later on. But if all goes well, the Eskies come out sharp, and if that happens, I shouldn't get myself into that much trouble in this one.
See you all tonight.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Late play here... I'm gonna buy one of those units back on that prop...
Edmonton to have more rushing yards (1 unit -179)
This bet won't count in the actual won/loss standings, but will be factored in on the final total tonight. I've got enough action on this game as it is.
Edmonton to have more rushing yards (1 unit -179)
This bet won't count in the actual won/loss standings, but will be factored in on the final total tonight. I've got enough action on this game as it is.
Barely survived the 1st quarter of this game... Hamilton has played very well since the first Eskimo drive. Hamilton driving here deep inside Eskies territory... 7-3 Edmonton end of 1 though... Good enough for the time being. For what it's worth, Hamilton's outrushing Edmonton right now... Not really liking my chances of anything else in this game right now except for what's already won unless Ricky Ray gets the troops going here in the 2nd quarter.
Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter W (+1.5 units)
Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter W (+1.5 units)
