Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 6

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You play... to win... the game
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Oh my... Hamilton with a legit chance to win this game here... I'm pulling for 'em, that's for sure...
 

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Alouettes over 28.5 L (-1.5 units)
Alouettes over 14.5 1st half L (-1 unit)

Alouettes (-5) vs. Argos L (-3.21 units)
Montreal vs. Toronto over 27 2nd half W (+3.5 units)

BC/Calgary over 53 W (+2.5 units)
BC/Calgary over 26 1st half W (+2 units)
Calgary over 21.5 W (+1 unit)
BC over 31 W (+1 unit)
Calgary over 10.5 1st half W (+1 unit)
BC over 16 1st half W (+1.05 units)

BC/Calgary over 27.5 2nd half W (+2 units)
Calgary (+6.5) 2nd half L (-1.06 units)


Ottawa under 24 W (+2 units)


Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter W (+1.5 units)
Edmonton over 17 1st half W (+1.5 units)
Hamilton to have more net rushing yards L (-1 unit)
Hamilton under 21 L (-1.25 units)
Edmonton/Hamilton under 54 L (-1.56 units)
Edmonton/Hamilton under 27.5 2nd half L (-1.57 units)
Hamilton (ml) @ Edmonton 2nd half W (+1.63 units)


Very successful week despite taking a step backwards today. Still have the play on the under on Monday to conclude this week. But a week where I went a very solid 12-8, netting 8.53 units

ATS: 8-6 (+8.08 units)
Totals: 6-2 (+6.41 units)
Team Totals: 7-3 (+5.10 units)
Moneylines: 6-5 (+3.20 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)
1st half: 6-7 (-1.47 units)
2nd half: 9-6 (+10.87 units)
Overall: 42-30 (+31.19 units)
 

You play... to win... the game
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Here's what I've grabbed for this afternoon's game with some thoughts...

Winnepeg/Toronto under 51.5 (1.5 units -110) (Grabbed upon line openings at 5Dimes)
Winnepeg over 22 (1 unit -110)
Winnepeg over 11 1st half (1.5 units +100)
Winnepeg (+1.5) 1st quarter (0.5 units -115)
Winnepeg (ml) @ Toronto (1 unit +270)

Bunch of people think the Argos are in a BAD spot today... real bad... Once again, I'm putting up a bunch of plays that I think put myself in a decent spot to be in a "one or the other" situation, and I think I'm in a spot where it's quite possible to take the whole ordeal.

First on under. Toronto's tired. We all know Toronto's tired. And they have to be physically drained putting forth their best effort @ Montreal. Allen and Avery both looked very strong for the Argos, though the defense had some holes in it.

From Winnepeg's standpoint... there has been 9 days since the Bombers last outing, and they've been cover happy of late. Glenn seems to have found stride once again with the Bombers, and these guys aren't as much of a mess on defense as one would like to think after getting thrashed by Saskatchewan earlier in the year. This is the same team that with Tee Martin at the helm maybe should have beaten Calgary a few weeks back, and that Stamps team is vastly improved as well. Winnepeg is coming up on a stretch of the schedule that they can really make a move on if they keep momentum from last week going. Catching Toronto on short rest off of a very emotionally draining game, travelling to Calgary, hosting Hamilton, and hosting Ottawa, followed by trips to Hamilton and Saskatchewan. Be very careful with this Bomber team... Very very careful.

If I lose the under on this game, I likely lose it because of Winnepeg's offense. That being said, my wager on this game would essentially be complete if Toronto stayed under 30. Seeing how they haven't done that with the exception of this past week at Montreal, I can certainly hope that the Bombers can hold them under that total. If they do, my worst case is losing about 2 units. But in a game like this that points could really be at a premium for, I'll take the 1.5 start in the 1st 15 minutes and then hope that the Bombers take advantage of a tiring Toronto team as the game goes on. The play on the Bombers 1st quarter is sort of progressive. I can see the Argos simply coming out flat, or dying as the game goes on. Odds have it if the Bombers cover the 1st quarter, I won't be playing on them in the 2nd half, but if they don't cover the 1st quarter, likelihood says that I'll be playing again on the Bombers 2nd half. The more I've thought about this, the more I'm gonna go with Joe Public's rare dog in the Bombers to keep the momentum from Montreal going.
 

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So far not exactly what I was looking for... but it's not been a horrible start.

Winnepeg/Toronto under 51.5 (1.5 units -110)
Winnepeg over 22 (1 unit -110)
Winnepeg over 11 1st half W (+1.5 units)
Winnepeg (+1.5) 1st quarter L (-0.57 units)
Winnepeg (ml) @ Toronto (1 unit +270)
 

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Someone correct me on this if I'm wrong, but it seems like the Bombers are lucky to only be down 4 (I missed the first half of this one). Argos have had two drives inside the Bomber 30 end in squat. Toronto's offense seems unstoppable, while Winnepeg's seems crappy at best... the hope is that Toronto wants to slow this game down the rest of the way and we can stay under the total... and hopefully the Bombers can make a game out of this one due to fatigue, perhaps earning a low scoring 2nd half victory...
 

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Gonna try getting the 0.5 unit back in the 2nd half...

Winnepeg (+3) 2nd half (0.5 units +113)
 

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Good news for Winnepeg backers... David Allen out. Mike Bishop in... Michael Bishop brings back memories... Don't know what happened to Allen, but he hurt his ankle at some point (radio coverage going in and out)
 

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Mike Bishop enters the game... like 2 minutes later it's 7-0 Bombers since he came in...
 

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It's DAMON Allen, and yes, in comes Bishop, who is looking around wondering where the rebound nets are.
 

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Thanks Scott...

Learning... but I knew it was Damon Allen. But listening to this game I kept hearing David something and just instinctively typed what I heard
 

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I'm watching it now. Bishop is throwing a lot of looping passes compared to Glenn who is throwing line drives.
 

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You know, the way these two offenses are playing, as long as no one turns the ball over deep in their own territory, this might be the way the game ends... I'd like one more Winnepeg FG, but knowing that's not likely, I'm pretty much damned if I do and damned if I don't... so let's go Bombers...
 

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Don't think Bishop's thrown this many completions in a row ever in his AFL career... bet he wishes he had Soward and Talbot in Grand Rapids with him...
 

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Alright Scott, did I just get screwed over this last Winnepeg drive with a drop in the end zone and then a lousy spot according to the Bomber announcers (wanting to know whether it's bias or legit)
 

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Hard to call it a drop. Stegall dove as far as he could. Just could not hold on as he hit. No way is it a "drop."

Spot did not look bad to me.
 

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Man oh man would I be so incredibly pissed if I had Toronto in the 2nd half, Toronto -7, or worse than that... under in the 2nd half... But as it stands, Vinny Sutherland rules! I feel like I earned that last play of the game after the Bombers half-assed their way down the freakin' field on the rest of that drive and the drive before it. Game that could've, lest maybe should've been a lot worst costs us under a unit. Back to the drawing board for next week on a week that really only feature one great game and three duds....

Alouettes over 28.5 L (-1.5 units)
Alouettes over 14.5 1st half L (-1 unit)
Alouettes (-5) vs. Argos L (-3.21 units)

Montreal vs. Toronto over 27 2nd half W (+3.5 units)

BC/Calgary over 53 W (+2.5 units)
BC/Calgary over 26 1st half W (+2 units)
Calgary over 21.5 W (+1 unit)
BC over 31 W (+1 unit)
Calgary over 10.5 1st half W (+1 unit)
BC over 16 1st half W (+1.05 units)

BC/Calgary over 27.5 2nd half W (+2 units)
Calgary (+6.5) 2nd half L (-1.06 units)


Ottawa under 24 W (+2 units)


Edmonton (ml) vs. Hamilton 1st quarter W (+1.5 units)
Edmonton over 17 1st half W (+1.5 units)
Hamilton to have more net rushing yards L (-1 unit)
Hamilton under 21 L (-1.25 units)
Edmonton/Hamilton under 54 L (-1.56 units)
Edmonton/Hamilton under 27.5 2nd half L (-1.57 units)
Hamilton (ml) @ Edmonton 2nd half W (+1.63 units)


Winnepeg/Toronto under 51.5 L (-1.65 units)
Winnepeg over 22 W (+1 unit)

Winnepeg over 11 1st half W (+1.5 units)
Winnepeg (+1.5) 1st quarter L (-0.57 units)
Winnepeg (ml) @ Toronto L (-1 unit)

(Winnepeg 2nd half pushed) So for the week, 14-11 on way too many plays, netting 7.81 units... but I like this system of spreading my wagers around, though it's going to come a time that I've got a weak lean on a game that I play around like this and end up getting swept completely... so I think I'm gonna try to take a step back next week now that I'm starting to get the hang of this and can no longer call it an experiment.

ATS: 8-6 (+8.08 units)
Totals: 6-3 (+4.76 units)
Team Totals: 8-3 (+6.10 units)
Moneylines: 6-6 (+2.20 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)
1st half: 7-8 (-0.54 units)
2nd half: 9-6 (+10.87 units)
Overall: 44-33 (+30.47 units)

Scott-- Did 5Dimes to team totals on the AFL as well??? That could open up a whole other gold mine for me next year...
 

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