Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 1

[scottw]

TD OTT, this game could get over the total with OTT offense sucking it big time.

 

[AFLGuru]

Ach... 34-16... This could just suck... As I said, I was afraid of Ottawa scoring... because I don't think the Eskimos are done yet...

 

[AFLGuru]

Just nothing freakish like another Ottawa score like we had last night... lol

 

[tomlv]

you're right, it is past history and should be used accordingly.

like in this series the last 3 yrs the OVER is 6-0 and home team is 6-0 ATS.

 

[scottw]

Frito Ray is limping. Wonder why they don't put in Maas and let him rest.

 

[AFLGuru]

you're right, it is past history and should be used accordingly.

like in this series the last 3 yrs the OVER is 6-0 and home team is 6-0 ATS.

If you used stats like that in the AFL you'd be crazy because of the team turnover every year. But in a game like this I could picture it being quite worthwhile.

 

[AFLGuru]

If Ottawa's defense can crack down here and hold the Eskimos to 3 I'd really appreciate it...

 

[scottw]

Hey Goo, you saw that SJ lost Rashied Davis to the NFL, right?

 

[tomlv]

EDM play by play guy doesnt tell you anything and the CFL site play by play has no clock on the screen.


just intercepted so you may get what you want

 

[AFLGuru]

No, but that doesn't surprise me... who grabbed him?

That San Jose team is in for a MASSIVE overhaul in this offseason... gonna be a new QB and a lot of new receivers. Grieb might hang it up.

 

[AFLGuru]

Eh... alright, now I need freakin' Edmonton's defense to stand taller.

 

[scottw]

I'm pretty sure it was Da Bears.

 

[AFLGuru]

Great... now I need the Ottawa defense to stand tall again...

For a game with no picks, back to back plays seems a bit much...

 

[scottw]

Ridiculous that this game went over.

 

[AFLGuru]

Dang... apparently that was a bs interference call... odds I get a missed PAT aren't good I guess...

 

[scottw]

Are we seeing a pattern? First halves under, second halves over???

 

[AFLGuru]

Eh... so much for beginners luck... kinda screwed out of the freakin' first half and then the game under... oh well...

Edmonton vs. Ottawa under 56 L (-1.53 units)
Ottawa (ml) @ Edmonton L (-0.5 units)
Edmonton vs. Ottawa under 28 1st half Push (------)
Edmonton vs. Ottawa under 28.5 L (2nd half) (-0.5 units)
Edmonton (-4) vs. Ottawa 2nd half W (+2.5 units)
So for the night... 1-3 (-0.03 units)... damn.... dunno what I'm gonna do without those 0.03 units....

Overall 2-3 (2-2 ATS) +2.97 units

 

[AFLGuru]

Are we seeing a pattern? First halves under, second halves over???

1st half wasn't under... it was a push because of that last BS TD for Edmonton.

 

[scottw]

Well, you would be 3-0-1 so far if you were betting that way.

 

[AFLGuru]

Sure it won't keep up... trends like that the books will adjust to very quickly. It's like in college basketball... For the first few months of the season if a dog for the game was a bigger dog in the 2nd half than they were for the game they covered like 75% of the time... that number scaled back VERY quickly, as the books adjusted. To be honest, many folks pounded the over in the 2nd half, as it went from over 28.5 -104 to over 28.5 -119 at close on Pinnacle.