With today's card dry, I'm going to add a couple plays here that I think are interesting in light of what's gone down the past couple days with trades and such. First off, let me say this... Tampa in all likelihood (I'd say 65% likelihood) beat Georgia today. I hope they don't, but they probably will. Better yet in this game though....
Georgia @ Tampa over 103 (2.5 units +118): I did sell off 2.5 points in this one for the increased odds because the public is continually betting this down and I'm not sure why. Are they looking at Tampa's miserable effort @ LA? Are they looking at Georgia's studly defense? I'm not so sure I understand all of this. Georgia is now without Dialo Burks the rest of the way. I said this on trade-day, that without Burks, that defense is going to hurt. Yes, Jackson brings them a much more aerial passing game, but someone's gotta play jack linebacker, and either Bergeron or Jackson has to play both ways. GR tried that to find that Jackson was a crappy corner. My guess says that you see Jackson try jack linebacker tonight. I think I've got the game on TV, so I'll be better equipped to get that answer myself. But Matt Nagy, if nothing else, has been putting some points on the board lately. And against a Tampa defense now missing ITS field general in David Saunders, this one can get upwards of 120 really fast.
Prop: Georgia + New York over 106.5 (1.5 units +103): More or less along the same lines as the Georgia/Tampa game. New York simply crushes people at home. That's all there is to it. They crush people. Very rarely do they get held under 50 at home, and that being said, 60 happens quite often as well. The Rush are coming off of a bye week, which could really make things interesting in this game. They know this could be a huge boost in their season, or the demoralizing loss that could put them 3 back in their division, all but ending playoff hopes. As for New York, they need this puppy to keep up with all of the other high fliers in their conference. New Orleans losing to lowly Austin might actually bring the Wranglers back into it if they catch fire, which should scare ALL of the top dogs right now. Tampa's all but dead if they lose tonight, but even if the Storm and Wranglers are laid to rest, everyone's grouped within a game and a half right now. New York also knows that trip into Orlando lurks very close, and they've had no luck against the Preds since they were in Iowa. Anyway, back to our bet. Michael Bishop of all people, probably put more points on the board for us in this game than you'd ever imagine. He picked on Jerroid Johnson a ridiculous amount on the deep balls, and the Rush secondary had no answer. Look for Aaron Garcia and his gang of WRs to put up 55 or so again, leaving Georgia to get to 50 on Tampa? I'll take my chances for the smaller play.
Best of luck as always.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Georgia @ Tampa over 103 (2.5 units +118): I did sell off 2.5 points in this one for the increased odds because the public is continually betting this down and I'm not sure why. Are they looking at Tampa's miserable effort @ LA? Are they looking at Georgia's studly defense? I'm not so sure I understand all of this. Georgia is now without Dialo Burks the rest of the way. I said this on trade-day, that without Burks, that defense is going to hurt. Yes, Jackson brings them a much more aerial passing game, but someone's gotta play jack linebacker, and either Bergeron or Jackson has to play both ways. GR tried that to find that Jackson was a crappy corner. My guess says that you see Jackson try jack linebacker tonight. I think I've got the game on TV, so I'll be better equipped to get that answer myself. But Matt Nagy, if nothing else, has been putting some points on the board lately. And against a Tampa defense now missing ITS field general in David Saunders, this one can get upwards of 120 really fast.
Prop: Georgia + New York over 106.5 (1.5 units +103): More or less along the same lines as the Georgia/Tampa game. New York simply crushes people at home. That's all there is to it. They crush people. Very rarely do they get held under 50 at home, and that being said, 60 happens quite often as well. The Rush are coming off of a bye week, which could really make things interesting in this game. They know this could be a huge boost in their season, or the demoralizing loss that could put them 3 back in their division, all but ending playoff hopes. As for New York, they need this puppy to keep up with all of the other high fliers in their conference. New Orleans losing to lowly Austin might actually bring the Wranglers back into it if they catch fire, which should scare ALL of the top dogs right now. Tampa's all but dead if they lose tonight, but even if the Storm and Wranglers are laid to rest, everyone's grouped within a game and a half right now. New York also knows that trip into Orlando lurks very close, and they've had no luck against the Preds since they were in Iowa. Anyway, back to our bet. Michael Bishop of all people, probably put more points on the board for us in this game than you'd ever imagine. He picked on Jerroid Johnson a ridiculous amount on the deep balls, and the Rush secondary had no answer. Look for Aaron Garcia and his gang of WRs to put up 55 or so again, leaving Georgia to get to 50 on Tampa? I'll take my chances for the smaller play.
Best of luck as always.
--AFLGuru:toast:
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ok i will bite 83 % are on the dragons and the line dropped 1.5 points
makes you want to go hmmmmmmmmmmm
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Quick Take
Chicago Rush
New York Dragons
Over
Under
Straight Bets
Over/Under
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ok i will bite 83 % are on the dragons and the line dropped 1.5 points
makes you want to go hmmmmmmmmmmm
Ya see, I wouldn't lean that way. I don't believe in these "sharp" plays, especially in terms of the AFL where the number of bets and the quantity of bets is so small in terms of say, college basketball or football where sharp plays probably work. Don't get yourself caught up in the numbers. Cap the game. That's how you beat the books on the AFL. Don't get caught up in what the public says you should or shouldn't do. I'm coming close to laying light on the Dragons myself.
--AFLGuru:toast:
--AFLGuru:toast:
Interesting Kidslick
Over on SERocks C2 Thread we are more into capping with just stats and numbers. If you would like to post that kind of stuff there it might be more appropriate.
AFL guru is a great capper...we are just trying to do it from a different angle.
Having different systems and theories here makes this place pretty cool.
Also...if you are into the "Sharps movment" stuff, you really should check out our site listed in my profile. We have a bunch of amateur , and a professional capper there working on Sharps movement stuff all the time.
You might fit right in, if thats your cup of tea.
Regardless...I will be keeping an eye on that Chicago game now...and thanks for highlighting the "Sharps" action.
Over on SERocks C2 Thread we are more into capping with just stats and numbers. If you would like to post that kind of stuff there it might be more appropriate.
AFL guru is a great capper...we are just trying to do it from a different angle.
Having different systems and theories here makes this place pretty cool.
Also...if you are into the "Sharps movment" stuff, you really should check out our site listed in my profile. We have a bunch of amateur , and a professional capper there working on Sharps movement stuff all the time.
You might fit right in, if thats your cup of tea.
Regardless...I will be keeping an eye on that Chicago game now...and thanks for highlighting the "Sharps" action.
No, it's quite appropriate anywhere on this thread. Any sort of info on betting to make it all better is fine anywhere. Hell, if Scott and I are running in game updates, we end up with like 700 posts in a week. Speaking of which... I think I've got the Tampa game on TV and could care less about the NCAA Tourney... so anyone here that is interested, if you're here, I'm here.
New York and Chicago have combined for 1 stop. New York is down 9 points getting the ball first in the 2nd half. I think this is a "worst case split" but I think New York is going to win this game outright. Figured on seeing the Dragons at -10 or so in the 2nd half. I think this is a big mistake. Sorry no one else is here to see this bet because they might be two great 2nd half wagers.
Incredible... Scoreless quarter because Tampa can't score from inside the 10 (13 tries inside the 5 today for Tampa and they've yet to score from inside the 5). 4 turnovers in the quarter, no TDs... Anyway, NY covered, but didn't win the game, and the game stayed under. Also, NY only scored 43, so we're in trouble since the Force are stuck on 31 after 2 turnovers in the 3rd. OT might be the only way we can manage this one. No breaks yet today... unreal.
New York (-5) vs. Chicago 2nd half (+2.86 units)
New York/Chicago 2nd half over 51.5 (-2 units)
New York (-5) vs. Chicago 2nd half (+2.86 units)
New York/Chicago 2nd half over 51.5 (-2 units)
FINALLY! After being stuck on 69 for seemingly forever, we finally get back on the board. It took 27 minutes into the 2nd half, but Tampa's back on the board... still need 4 scores in 8:30 minutes. We needed 5 TDs in the 2nd half and got 7 stops and 56 turnovers instead... still a hope, but it's looking grim.
This was just ridiculous. I refuse to watch the end of this game. Tampa got dominated the entire way, yet stupid bounces and terrible calls led to Georgia getting beat. Worse than that, with 3 minutes left in the game there were SEVEN points scored in the 2nd half. This is just unreal. 9 stops in the half. 5 turnovers. And worse? Only 1 pick out of those. Damn fumbles, bad bounces, Georgia fumbling through the end zone on what should have been called an incomplete pass, Tampa fumble recovered by Georgia in the end zone for what should have been a TD, ends up being called out of bounds. Tampa kills about 7 more minutes, runs down the field and gets stuffed on the goalline. Tampa had 13 tries inside the 1 today and didn't get it in on ANY of them. I knew Georgia's goalline D was good, but this is nuts. I can't believe this. Okay, I'm done with my tangent... We'd better have a solid Sunday, or it's an embarassing week. It's already been embarassing as ALL of the breaks have gone against us. But we have to look at it as though we're due....
Prop: Georgia + New York over 106.5 L (-1.5 units)
Georgia @ Tampa over 103 L (-2.5 units)
New York (-5) vs. Chicago 2nd half (+2.86 units)
New York/Chicago 2nd half over 51.5 (-2 units)
With yesterday's debacle....
New Orleans (-10.5) @ Austin L (-5 units)
This week...
1-4 (-8.14 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1
Sides Record: 17-13 (+16.46 units)
Totals Record: 19-11 (+21.53 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 6-8 (-2.44 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 46-40 (53.49%)
Net: +32.79 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 2nd halfs): 42-32 (56.76%)
Units Wagered: 243 units
Units Won: 32.79 units
Net %: 13.49% profit per unit wagered
Sunday Card
Orlando (-9.5) vs. LA (3 units -105)
Orlando/LA under 93.5 (3.5 units -105)
Philly/Columbus over 101 (4 units -105)
Vegas (+7) @ Colorado (2 units -105)
Vegas/Colorado under 106.5 (3 units -105)
San Jose (-13) vs. Arizona (5 units -105)
Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids (2.5 units +108)
So needless to say, it's a card that can really bail us out of the week, but it can also turn real disasterous. Some of these lines have really bounced back against us, so feel free to go for it. If you go down this week, I'm definitely going down with you because I got these lines too late.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Prop: Georgia + New York over 106.5 L (-1.5 units)
Georgia @ Tampa over 103 L (-2.5 units)
New York (-5) vs. Chicago 2nd half (+2.86 units)
New York/Chicago 2nd half over 51.5 (-2 units)
With yesterday's debacle....
New Orleans (-10.5) @ Austin L (-5 units)
This week...
1-4 (-8.14 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1
Sides Record: 17-13 (+16.46 units)
Totals Record: 19-11 (+21.53 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 6-8 (-2.44 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 46-40 (53.49%)
Net: +32.79 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 2nd halfs): 42-32 (56.76%)
Units Wagered: 243 units
Units Won: 32.79 units
Net %: 13.49% profit per unit wagered
Sunday Card
Orlando (-9.5) vs. LA (3 units -105)
Orlando/LA under 93.5 (3.5 units -105)
Philly/Columbus over 101 (4 units -105)
Vegas (+7) @ Colorado (2 units -105)
Vegas/Colorado under 106.5 (3 units -105)
San Jose (-13) vs. Arizona (5 units -105)
Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids (2.5 units +108)
So needless to say, it's a card that can really bail us out of the week, but it can also turn real disasterous. Some of these lines have really bounced back against us, so feel free to go for it. If you go down this week, I'm definitely going down with you because I got these lines too late.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Okay, I've woken up this morning deciding it's going to be a good day on sides and a rough one on over/unders... I also think we're gonna get some decent 2nd half plays. Just my initial gut feeling on this stupid daylight savings time garbage. Lose an hour of sleep... well, at least it wasn't on a school night. Anyway, I've definitely got the Preds game on in about an hour, fully decked out in Kenny McEntyre jersey. If anybody's got the Philly game, updates will be appreciated.
