Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 10

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SJ is correct, kind of a "trick Q", as they've only played 3 home
games going into week 10...3 H, 5 R, 1 bye...but,no ( no = zero )
pts 4th Q....

Kind of why when you bet them and they are tied at H,u r crying

And when u bet against them and they are tied,u r laughing
until they explode...think they'll be real again...my top choice

PS

The Vegas game, Dolezel got hurt,didn't play 2nd H

Look at their scoring the last 3 weeks since he's been back...
63 / 66/ 74
 

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Only one numbered matter from last week.

81

San Jose dropped 81 damn points....

Despite my usual feelings of "gulp, I hope I didn't lead people the wrong direction in these lines," note that I am with most of you average Joe's who didn't pound the lines right now and still laid massive chalk in some of these games. So don't be afraid to hit them from here even though they've already exploded in some cases. What you see here is what I got them at. As you can tell, I missed a lot of free points.... Only N.O. has really moved.
 

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been_there said:
SJ is correct, kind of a "trick Q", as they've only played 3 home
games going into week 10...3 H, 5 R, 1 bye...but,no ( no = zero )
pts 4th Q....

Kind of why when you bet them and they are tied at H,u r crying

And when u bet against them and they are tied,u r laughing
until they explode...think they'll be real again...my top choice

PS

The Vegas game, Dolezel got hurt,didn't play 2nd H

Look at their scoring the last 3 weeks since he's been back...
63 / 66/ 74

Not what Dolezel has been doing right, it's what the defense has been doing wrong. They've sucked it up the past three weeks. Dolezel also had the worst 11 TD game in the history of the AFL I'm pretty sure....
 

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Hey Guru, I am with you on LV +7. But it worries me that Dolezel has thrown more picks the last 2 games (5) than Dutton has all year (4). Gotta avoid the turnovers this week. If they do, they'll stay right with COL.
 

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He alsp threw Eleven (!) td.s last week vs. SJ -

kindof like Peyton Manning two yearas back.:103631605

Interestingly, LV opened at +1.5 so I suspect that

+7 has long run positive expectation even if you

didn't handicap.
 

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I might also play the over 103. With LV +7 and over 103, if LV scores just 48 points, I cannot lose both bets. They have scored 63, 66, and 75 since Dolezel came back. 48 seems very likely.
 

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Leon Murray sucks anyway... lol.... I knew about his possible injury, and it really didn't surprise me at all to see the article this morning.

As far as LV... I grabbed under at 106.5, a much more feasable number to stay under. 103 is a bit low now, but I think I'd still lean under...

--AFLGuru
 

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GEORGIA FORCE TRADE FOR AFL TOP OFFENSIVE WEAPON CHRIS JACKSON

FLOWERY BRANCH, GA, March 30, 2005 – Owning the Arena Football League’s best record at 7-2, the Georgia Force made a blockbuster deal with the Grand Rapids Rampage today acquiring offensive specialist Chris Jackson in exchange for wide receiver/linebacker Dialleo Burks and future considerations. The AFL’s trade deadline was today at 5 p.m. ET.

“Any time you can add a player of Chris’ caliber to your team at this point in the season, it is positive move,” explained Head Coach Doug Plank. “Chris has been one of the most dominate offensive players in this league for several years and we are very excited for him to be joining us. Having coached against Chris, I know the challenges he presents for opposing defenses and he will certainly be a welcome and valuable addition for us on both sides of the ball.”

JACKSON (6-2, 215, Washington State) joins the Force as someone who is arguably one of the best offensive players in the league. Since his arrival to Arena Football five seasons ago, he has caught more passes, gained more receiving yards and scored more touchdowns or points than any other player in the AFL. He has scored a touchdown in all but two games in his AFL career. Additionally, Jackson is the only player in AFL history to be named Rookie of the Year (2000) and then be named Offensive Player of the Year (2003).

This season with the Rampage, Jackson has played in seven games and was the club’s leading receiver with 48 receptions for 651 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has also contributed on special teams with 21 kickoff returns for 421 return yards and one score and four missed field goal returns for 75 yards. He currently ranks 9th in the AFL in all-purpose yards (1,149). On defensive, Jackson has made 4 tackles and 1 pass break-up on the year.

The Georgia Force (7-2) travel to Tampa Bay (4-4) to face the Storm on Saturday, April 2nd at 7:30 pm in the St. Pete Times Forum. The game will be televised locally on Fox Sports Net South. Force single-game tickets start as low as $7. Tickets may be purchased by calling Ticketmaster at (404) 249-6400 or for more information, visit www.georgiaforce.com.
 

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See, I go to school for a day and look what happens? Tampa and Georgia both make HUGE moves.

Nashville must have gone nuts. They acquired ANOTHER WR. What are they doing with all of these guys? They needed a QB not a WR. Anyway, they've acquired TT Toliver for squat just like they did with Grant from Orlando. I haven't figured out how, but SOMEHOW this team is going to be helped by this... probably going to use Toliver as their kick returner as well, as the kick return game hasn't been very good for the Kats.

Then there's the Chris Jackson trade. This is the deal that makes me feel A LOT better about having Nashville. Jackson gone from the Rampage in exchange for Burks says a couple things... First off, the Rampage are getting younger. They knew that they weren't keeping Jackson around long, and this way they get a younger receiver, who can play defense much better than Jackson can, and surely makes less money towards the cap. As for Georgia....

You all may call me crazy... Go ahead and do it now... but this makes Georgia worse. Burks was a key member of the Force defense though his stats don't show it. He was the jack linebacker most of the time, and a good one at that. Georgia already has a Chris Jackson prototype on their team in Troy Bergeron. Pair up Bergeron with the other kid (who's name slips my mind at the moment) and Jackson, and YES, it's a deadly WR corps... But the defense gets much worse. I have no idea who is playing jack linebacker now for the Force, and I foresee this being a bigger problem than their offense.

Also, for the first time for a long time for Jackson, he's got a crappy QB throwing him the ball. Yeah, Nagy's not bad, but he's not Michael Bishop and he's not Tony Graziani. Jackson's productivity won't be nearly as good in Georgia, but he may free up Bergeron and Lee (that's the kid's name) a bit more. Massive move to screw Orlando, as Jackson has owned the Preds in the past, but I don't know if this is going to help the Force or hurt the Force. Keep calling me crazy... We'll see what happens.

Nashville: You should have traded for a QB, not a billionth WR... Hillary, Hammond, McGriff, Fleschman, Toliver, and those are just the ones I can name off the top of my head. And all of those guys and NO QUARTERBACK is a big problem. But if this team can keep the WRs together and even get a halfway decent QB in the offseason, they might end up being something. I know that Philyaw's gotta be free after this year and Bonner's certainly going to be free, so maybe Nashville can land one of them (though book this now... Bonner's QBing Utah next year with Danny White as the coach).

Oh, and this might be a sign of Tampa tanking it. Toliver was a key component to them, and they just dumped his cap room and got no one in return. Pair this with the fact that they're the last team in line to sign free agents, and Tampa could be a franchise in a lot of trouble really soon. Look for the ol' ball coach to be hanging it up very soon if they collapse this year... and it wouldn't surprise me if they do, especially if they lose these next two games.

Today wasn't the greatest physical day for me, so I might be out of commission until late tomorrow, as I'm about ready for bed at the ripe hour of 7:00... I'll talk to you all then.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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Does anyone have a copy of the openers today from Olympic and the line movements? As I said before, I was on campus all day today trying to catch up on school work and missed it all. I see the Pinny lines haven't changed a ton, but some have moved at least the juice line if not the juice line and the spread.
 

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Pinnacle AFL Openers

Here are the first ones that I saw. I try to get in as they're going up, while wearing my ski mask at the same time.

New Orleans -6 102
New York -3.5 102.5
Georgia -2 105
Orlando -2 95.5
Philadelphia -2 101.5
Grand Rapids -3.5 110
Colordo -1.5 109
San Jose -7.5 107
 

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Olympic AFL Openers

Here's the Olympic openers.

New Orleans -7 102
New York -6 101.5
Tampa Bay -3.5 101
Orlando -7 100
Philadelphia -3 104.5
Nashville -1 101.5
Colorado -6 103
San Jose -13.5 106
 

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Current AFL Olympic

Pinted off Don Best. The Opener on the left is CRIS, far right is Olympic Current.

OPEN Olympi
=============================================
ARENA FOOTBALL - WEEK 10
Friday, April 1st - Bye: Dallas
-------------------------------------------
04/01 10 NO VooDoo 451 11
05:30p 103 Aus Wranglers 452 102
-------------------------------------------
ARENA FOOTBALL - WEEK 10
Saturday, April 2nd
-------------------------------------------
04/02 103½ Chi Rush 453 103
04:00p 6½ NY Dragons 54 6
-------------------------------------------
04/02 102 Georgia Force 455 101
04:30p 1 Tampa Bay Storm 456 1
-------------------------------------------
ARENA FOOTBALL - WEEK 10
Sunday, April 3rd
-------------------------------------------
04/03 93 LA Avengers 457 92
09:00a 8 Orl Predators 458 8½
-------------------------------------------
04/03 4 Phi Soul 459 4½
09:00a 105 Cob Destroyers 460 104½
-------------------------------------------
04/03 102½ Nas Kats 461 pk
11:30a 1 Gra Rampage 462 101½
-------------------------------------------
04/03 103½ LV Gladiators 463 103
12:00p 5 Colorado Crush 464 6
-------------------------------------------
04/03 107 Ari Rattlers 465 106
06:00p 14 San Sabercats 466 14
-------------------------------------------


Hope this helps.
 

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Thanks Green Valley. Just wanted them for my own records. Much appreciated.
 

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So long, Suckavento!

<TABLE width=397><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="WIDTH: 137pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan" width=183 colSpan=3 height=17>AUSTIN WRANGLERS</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 29pt" width=39></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 35pt" width=47></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 34pt" width=45></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 64pt" width=85></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=5 height=17>ACTIVATED FROM INJURED RESERVE</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17></TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>FB/LB</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>Jeremy Beutler</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>6’2</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle x:num>270</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl24 align=middle x:num="27764">1/5/1976</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>Ohio</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>WAIVED</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17></TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>QB</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>Bobby Pesavento</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>6’4</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle x:num>225</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl24 align=middle x:num="29048">7/12/1979</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>Colorado</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY>

</TABLE>
 

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Yeah, I saw that Austin released Pesavento late last night... As they should have. That being said though, we're ONE Fitzgerald injury from seeing SCOTT DREISBACH!

Once again, I apologize for all of this. My dad read me back the article in the paper, and of course, if was the same one on the internet. Oops. Yeah, way to go dad. However, I'll still say I'm confident that New Orleans is going to simply take care of business in this game, as Austin ain't sneaking up on anyone any longer.

And Math, Austin will still probably be our "bet against" all season, especially when they travel to Tampa and to New Orleans, both yet to be done. This team's got a nice story, but they're folding down the stretch against the real teams in this division. Too many divisional games left to be had against the teams that can't afford to drop them.
 

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Adding: Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids (1.5 units @ +100) making 4 units total

I can't believe this line hasn't been adjusted thanks to the Jackson trade. Hines is now the #1, and he's nothing to write home about. Grand Rapids made their situation a big mess. But once again, this is the LAST time I'll get screwed by Nashville if they don't win the game... The absolute last time...
 

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