Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 10

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Hi Guru,


I thought you already had Nashville at pick (?) and I
am happy to be on your side (actually had 'capped them
at -3).

Stubborn lines this week; maybe too much movement in
first 10 minutes? Tough to overcome.
 

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Whoops! I get the picture - you added 1.5 units to

your previous 3 units. Duh..........
 

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1.5 to the previous 2.5 to make 4... It's probably a bit of a reach, but I never like when bad teams take away their best player... I really don't care who's QBing for Nashville either, because it can't be as bad as it was last week. If you can't score against Grand Rapids, you've got issues.
 

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How are they billing that game, "The Resistible Force meets The Moveable Object?"
 

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Don't even... is it any worse than last week's Nashville/Arizona game... really....
 

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1 Q's

If Markum can not coach,advise,talk to anybody during his 2 week
layoff, how did they trade TT Toliver...isn't he like a GM also

I still like and played TB, think they are supposed to bring their A-game off
last weeks disaster showing...

------------------------------------

Scary fact...

From ArenaFootball.com
AFL Week 9 Leaders

#1 ranked QB, Shane Stafford, 342 yds..
BUT
7 pts 1st Half,
21 4th Q..

Boxscore of Ga-NO game is real fishy....

GEO NO
FIRST DOWNS................... 15 17
RUSHES-YARDS (NET)............ 8-13 6-28
PASSING YDS (NET)............. 195 267
Passes Att-Comp-Int........... 27-15-0 50-32-0
TOTAL OFFENSE PLAYS-YARDS..... 36-208 56-295
Fumble Returns-Yards.......... 0-0 0-0
Kickoff Returns-Yards......... 6-90 7-101
Interception Returns-Yards.... 0-0 0-0
Fumbles-Lost.................. 1-0 0-0
Penalties-Yards............... 10-52 11-66
Possession Time............... 24:06 35:54
Sacks By: Number-Yards........ 0-0 1-3

How did they win that game..??

I'm against them ( Ga ) this week also, even though they picked up Chris Jackson, game looks like a trap for Ga bettors

GL
 

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It is... Tampa's the right play for sure.... But I can't lay on the Storm.

That is a good question about the Storm... I'm fairly sure Marcum is the GM as well. Nothing says he couldn't pull trades, just couldn't contact his team... once Toliver was traded he wasn't on the team anymore... lol
 

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BT... Look at the PAT percentage by N.O. vs. that of Georgia... that's what won them the game. That missed PAT early by New Orleans cost them the rest of the way. Then the onside kick returned for TD... Voodoo were really never in it.
 

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Kats waive Zimmerman, Whittemore now the backup, and Murray has the sternum injury. Saunders refuses to report in GR. Love my under 110 in this week's game.

Tacoma Fontaine on IR for AUS. Got the under in this one too.
 

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Fontaine is huge

Austin making a lot of changes,their GM ( Glyn Milburn ) coming
out of retirement to play special teams this week

Your guys fav,Bobby P has been cut,Fitzgerald will start

Could only play the game und as don't know where Aus pts coming
from,already have NO minus 6 and minus 7,I know,road fav ( never ),but
NO off tough loss last week hopefully won't overlook Austin

GL

==========================================

I had just read a good article last week about Chris Jackson
being happy living in GR ( written Jan 5 )
He must not have liked losing

http://www.rampagefootball.com/news/?id=1561
 

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It's not gonna be Whittmore in Nashville either. I read on Arena Fan that were strongly considering going with this kid they signed a couple days back as the backup and possibly even starter this week if Murray couldn't go. Scott Rislov is the guy's name. But I guess viewing the reports, maybe it will be Whittmore for a week. "Murray suffered a late-game shot to the sternum in Saturday's loss to Arizona but has practiced the last two days and is expected to start in Sunday's game at Grand Rapids" (as per Arena Fan and the Tennesseean)

Also, let it be known that we remain one John Fitzgerald injury from Scott Dreisbach making his appearance. With Fontaine out, I guess it's Milburn's job off the nets, even though that should make little difference, as Schmitz has a cannon and WILL put the ball well over several times in that screwy place. Where it makes a difference... Who the hell is the offensive specialist? I think that a lot of things are going to come into play in this game with all of the changes in place.

1) The Voodoo HATE John Fitzgerald. Trust me, he's getting roughed up tonight. Though Fitzy practiced against this defense every day last year, the same can be said about the Voodoo defense having learned all of the little quirks about him. And since Fitzy is still banged up with the MCL presumably, this could be a long night for the Wranglers QB.

2) Who's Fitzgerald's check down man? Austin made themselves a habit of picking on teams with deep drops, good protection, and then finding Fontaine in the middle of the field for short gainers. Couple things strike me here. First off again, who's playing offensive specialist? I don't think Milburn can do it the whole game, and if that's the case, they have to either convert a WR/DB to OS or bring in someone else, eating a roster spot. Don't be surprised to see Nickerson only go offensive, making the defense that much worse for the Wranglers (And if you give up 51 to Orlando, your defense must be pretty bad).

2A) Under the same sort of premise here, who has Fitz and gang struggled with this year? Start with Dallas, a ferocious pass rushing team. The line for Dallas smacked around the line for Austin and crushed Fitzy all game. I'll throw out the Orlando game since it really isn't what I would have called a prototype game with Pesavento at the helm. Also Vegas... Though they actually beat Vegas in that game, 42 points wasn't very stellar. I remember watching this game and tabbing it as "the most lopsided loss of the season." It was a game that special teams saved the Wranglers and the offense did squat... Same sort of in your face defense. BJ Cohen leads the pass rush into town tonight in a game that everyone in the French Quarter seems hyped up about. Watch for the pressure to get to Fitz early and often, and watch Fitz make some errand passes with him not on the same page as Milburn.

Unlike the general consensus here, I like over in this game because I don't think New Orleans is getting stopped. Without Fontaine there are some issues, but Fitz will put at least 40 on the board tonight. That being said, I'm banking on the Voodoo to reach 55 or so, and I think they should do this with ease. I feel New Orleans jumps out early in this one and never looks back, failing to become Austin's 3rd major upset of the year. If they score one more TD and get to 62, this game goes over.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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Problem with asking NO to score a lot of points for you is that they do not score quickly. They are #1 in time of possession, which you don't really want to be, and they are next to last at 5.9 yards per play. This shows they do not score with the quick-strike manner you need to help get games over.
 

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1) Not necessarily true Scott
2) That was massively inflated by the Orlando game when they had the ball for almost 50 minutes of the game

Despite all of this, New Orleans still averages almost 52 ppg while being 3rd in the AFL in offensive TDs. Yes, the last few weeks New Orleans has looked more like last year's Voodoo than the Voodoo from the start of the year, but Andy Kelly still floats a lot of them up there to Bailey and gang. He's started using other targets like Carl Bond and Thabiti Davis as check downs, which is always a good idea. I don't mind New Orleans slowing this game down, because if you don't get stopped, at worst you should still get 8 full possession. Also, we all know about the onside kicking in the 2nd halfs of these games. I like the Voodoo offense to come out aggressive like their defense, again, stressing the point that they NEED this game.
 

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Will likely NOT be around tonight... sorry guys.
 

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OK, Guru, we'll wish you good luck tonight in absentia.

But I suspect that you're allowing social life to interfere
with Arena football!:icon_conf
 

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No not really... I just have some school work I really need to get done. It's just easier for me to be writing notes to an online radio pickup. I'll probably chime in at times, particularly if things are going well.
 

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Voodoo up 7 at the break... yet to be stopped... and getting the ball first in the 2nd half. Fitzy's thrown some good balls but Foster f---ed up at the end of the half and instead of trying a FG that would have made it 4, they decided to let Fitzy try to get the 6 yards... INT... 35-28 at the half in favor of the Voodoo... I like what I see hear.
 

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Yeah, I hear the jeers now... save them... Nice job from everyone on this board pretty much except me on this stupid New Orleans game. New Orleans had 'em right where they needed to be and freakin' Kelly throws a pick on the goalline. Worse than that is Austin wins the stupid game and helps screw our Austin under 6 and New Orleans over 9 bets... Just a horrible game all around. Once again, the dreaded 5 unit play comes back to bite me. Unreal. Just unreal.... Well, here's to a better Sunday, though it seems most everyone else here had a nice night...

New Orleans (-10.5) @ Austin L (-5 units)

YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1

Sides Record: 17-13 (+16.46 units)
Totals Record: 19-10 (+24.03 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 5-7 (-3.3 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-4 (+1.19 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 45-37 (54.89%)
Net: +35.93 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 2nd halfs): 41-30 (57.75%)

Units Wagered: 234 units
Units Won: 35.93 units
Net %: 15.35% profit per unit wagered
 

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It would seem that when getting the ball first, a 10 point lead
at half would be great -are field goals that difficult or is the
coaching just pathetic?
 

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Backwards MathProf... Austin had the ball and could have cut the N.O. lead to 4, not N.O. increasing the lead to 10... But yes, kicking FGs IS that hard in the AFL. The 4th down attempt rates vs. FG attempts are insane, especially if the team doesn't have a steady kicker like Austin... and like New Orleans might become since they've now lost back to back weeks because of their kicker. I've had enough of this game though... Very disturbing 2nd half indeed.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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