It's a pretty proven pattern in the AFL. Extremely low scoring first half = at least 8 TDs in the 2nd half, especially in games that aren't close. Onside kicks and such... And since we've already had our exception to this rule today with Nashville/Grand Rapids, I'll go with it. I would have played this any other week, so there's no reason to change. Get knocked off the horse and get right back on it.
Missed the o/u, but covered the biggie. So today ends up positive, but a pretty crappy week all in all.
Sunday Card
Orlando (-9.5) vs. LA L (-3 units)
Orlando/LA under 93.5 L (-3.5 units)
Orlando (-1.5) vs. LA 2nd half L (-1.5 units)
Philly/Columbus over 101 W (+3.81 units)
Vegas (+7) @ Colorado L (-2 units)
Vegas/Colorado under 106.5 W (+2.86 units)
San Jose (-13) vs. Arizona W (+4.76 units)
San Jose vs. Arizona over 50 2nd half L (-2 units)
Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids W (+2.7 units)
And the rest of the week....
Prop: Georgia + New York over 106.5 L (-1.5 units)
Georgia @ Tampa over 103 L (-2.5 units)
New York (-5) vs. Chicago 2nd half W (+2.86 units)
New York/Chicago 2nd half over 51.5 L (-2 units)
New Orleans (-10.5) @ Austin L (-5 units)
This week...
5-9 (-6.01 units)
(4-5 today, +2.13 units)YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1
Sides Record: 19-15 (+18.92 units)
Totals Record: 21-12 (+24.70 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 6-10 (-5.94 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 50-45 (52.63%)
Net: +34.92 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 2nd halfs): 46-37 (55.42%)
Units Wagered: 269.5 units
Units Won: 34.92 units
Net %: 12.96% profit per unit wagered
Team recaps thus far......
Arizona (2-8) under 10 wins: Golden
Austin (4-6) under 6 wins: Win against New Orleans kinda hurts our chances of the outright win with the Wranglers still getting to play spoiler against some of the rest in the South. I'd say the Wranglers should finish at 7-9 right now, but it takes them going .500 the rest of the way to beat us... And with games still against all of the elites, I've gotta hope that the Wranglers lose all of these, or their road dates with Arizona and Columbus.
Columbus (1-8) under 7 wins: Destroyers simply the AFL's worst
Dallas (6-3) under 6 wins: No more needed to be said
Los Angeles (5-4) under 9 wins: Damn team is bipolar as all hell. Plays great against Tampa and terrible against Orlando and still should've beaten the Preds. At 5-4 you'd think we're in decent shape, but I think we're in trouble. Someone has to win the wild card in the west, and short of the trip to San Jose, there really isn't a certain loss on the schedule. Hope the Dragons knock 'em off next week in LA, which would help a lot.
Nashville (2-7) over 5.5 wins: Kats are in the win column again! Still looks really glum here, but the Kats COULD reasonably make a run to a playoff birth with the available schedule. Gonna need to beat an LA or something like that at home to help us out, but you never know in the AFL. A W here isn't likely, but certainly not out of the cards yet.
New Orleans (6-4) over 9 wins: Scary here.... Voodoo fading fast after two games they should have won. Still, Austin, @ Grand Rapids, and Columbus remain on the schedule, which SHOULD put us at the necessary 9. But if they slip in any of those, beating either @ Tampa, Colorado, or @ Orlando off of a Preds bye week will be tough. Win not likely, as the team is fading fast.
Orlando (7-3) over 9.5 wins: I think we banked this one this week with the W over LA. Easier road trips to Tampa, Philly, and Austin (at least easier than into Georgia or New Orleans, fortunately out of the way) with home dates against Georgia in a massive payback game, New Orleans in a game that could lock up the division, and a game that the Preds should romp New York in lay on the horizon. Think 3-3 out from here is almost a lock barring a miserable injury to Super Joe... because Sanders (backup QB) sucks really bad.
So there you've got it... all of the bets in a nut shell. Back for more punishment on Tuesday afternoon. Reviewing some numbers as to why my 2nd halfers are so bad. Though admittingly, the over play was partially a "prevent losing it all on a backdoor cover" play, we should see noted improvement soon. It's gonna be the only thing I focus on this week.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Sunday Card
Orlando (-9.5) vs. LA L (-3 units)
Orlando/LA under 93.5 L (-3.5 units)
Orlando (-1.5) vs. LA 2nd half L (-1.5 units)
Philly/Columbus over 101 W (+3.81 units)
Vegas (+7) @ Colorado L (-2 units)
Vegas/Colorado under 106.5 W (+2.86 units)
San Jose (-13) vs. Arizona W (+4.76 units)
San Jose vs. Arizona over 50 2nd half L (-2 units)
Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids W (+2.7 units)
And the rest of the week....
Prop: Georgia + New York over 106.5 L (-1.5 units)
Georgia @ Tampa over 103 L (-2.5 units)
New York (-5) vs. Chicago 2nd half W (+2.86 units)
New York/Chicago 2nd half over 51.5 L (-2 units)
New Orleans (-10.5) @ Austin L (-5 units)
This week...
5-9 (-6.01 units)
(4-5 today, +2.13 units)YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1
Sides Record: 19-15 (+18.92 units)
Totals Record: 21-12 (+24.70 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 6-10 (-5.94 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 50-45 (52.63%)
Net: +34.92 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 2nd halfs): 46-37 (55.42%)
Units Wagered: 269.5 units
Units Won: 34.92 units
Net %: 12.96% profit per unit wagered
Team recaps thus far......
Arizona (2-8) under 10 wins: Golden
Austin (4-6) under 6 wins: Win against New Orleans kinda hurts our chances of the outright win with the Wranglers still getting to play spoiler against some of the rest in the South. I'd say the Wranglers should finish at 7-9 right now, but it takes them going .500 the rest of the way to beat us... And with games still against all of the elites, I've gotta hope that the Wranglers lose all of these, or their road dates with Arizona and Columbus.
Columbus (1-8) under 7 wins: Destroyers simply the AFL's worst
Dallas (6-3) under 6 wins: No more needed to be said
Los Angeles (5-4) under 9 wins: Damn team is bipolar as all hell. Plays great against Tampa and terrible against Orlando and still should've beaten the Preds. At 5-4 you'd think we're in decent shape, but I think we're in trouble. Someone has to win the wild card in the west, and short of the trip to San Jose, there really isn't a certain loss on the schedule. Hope the Dragons knock 'em off next week in LA, which would help a lot.
Nashville (2-7) over 5.5 wins: Kats are in the win column again! Still looks really glum here, but the Kats COULD reasonably make a run to a playoff birth with the available schedule. Gonna need to beat an LA or something like that at home to help us out, but you never know in the AFL. A W here isn't likely, but certainly not out of the cards yet.
New Orleans (6-4) over 9 wins: Scary here.... Voodoo fading fast after two games they should have won. Still, Austin, @ Grand Rapids, and Columbus remain on the schedule, which SHOULD put us at the necessary 9. But if they slip in any of those, beating either @ Tampa, Colorado, or @ Orlando off of a Preds bye week will be tough. Win not likely, as the team is fading fast.
Orlando (7-3) over 9.5 wins: I think we banked this one this week with the W over LA. Easier road trips to Tampa, Philly, and Austin (at least easier than into Georgia or New Orleans, fortunately out of the way) with home dates against Georgia in a massive payback game, New Orleans in a game that could lock up the division, and a game that the Preds should romp New York in lay on the horizon. Think 3-3 out from here is almost a lock barring a miserable injury to Super Joe... because Sanders (backup QB) sucks really bad.
So there you've got it... all of the bets in a nut shell. Back for more punishment on Tuesday afternoon. Reviewing some numbers as to why my 2nd halfers are so bad. Though admittingly, the over play was partially a "prevent losing it all on a backdoor cover" play, we should see noted improvement soon. It's gonna be the only thing I focus on this week.
--AFLGuru:toast:
InSpades--
Not nearly a miracle win for the Saberkitties. They had the game the whole way by suffocating Germaine. It was never really close. If they DIDN'T cover, it would have been another bad break. Doesn't cancel out anything in lucky breaks... If anything was lucky today it was Nashville. I know this week was probably a bit of a levelling situation from the weeks past (especially week 6 if I recall) where we got a couple nice bounces our way. When they all happen on the same day it tends to get very frustrating though. Glad the last couple games went according to plan to get us back to a respectable number this week, but I still feel a bit embarassed at the showing.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Not nearly a miracle win for the Saberkitties. They had the game the whole way by suffocating Germaine. It was never really close. If they DIDN'T cover, it would have been another bad break. Doesn't cancel out anything in lucky breaks... If anything was lucky today it was Nashville. I know this week was probably a bit of a levelling situation from the weeks past (especially week 6 if I recall) where we got a couple nice bounces our way. When they all happen on the same day it tends to get very frustrating though. Glad the last couple games went according to plan to get us back to a respectable number this week, but I still feel a bit embarassed at the showing.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Guru,
I didn't see any of the game. I just heard what happened, so I assumed it was a miracle win.
I actually stopped following most of your picks because I couldn't get the same lines as you. I noticed you posted this:
This week...
5-9 (-6.01 units)
(4-5 today, +2.13 units)YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1
Is the "Against the same closing line" for the year? I assume you have more than 39 plays for the year.
IS
I didn't see any of the game. I just heard what happened, so I assumed it was a miracle win.
I actually stopped following most of your picks because I couldn't get the same lines as you. I noticed you posted this:
This week...
5-9 (-6.01 units)
(4-5 today, +2.13 units)YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1
Is the "Against the same closing line" for the year? I assume you have more than 39 plays for the year.
IS
Last edited:
InSpades--
What I've been tracking with opening line vs. closing line...
This falls right into your alley of your plays and my numbers. There have been 39 games in which I've gotten the opening line, which I call any line in which I got in the first 30 minutes of the line opening (because I can't get ALL of my bets in THAT fast). The rest of my bets are either props, 2nd halfs, or lines that I bet that weren't off of those openers. This week I missed all of the opening lines, thus didn't include this week's stuff in with the numbers for opening line vs. closing line.
The point I try to prove by posting this is that it DOES matter where you get the line at (68.4% winners on opening line) but you're also a winner even if you get the worst line possible in these games that I got at a different number (60.5% winners on closing line). Keep this in mind about following or not following me.
This disappointment this season for me has been the performance NOT against that opening line, or the rest of the bets that aren't accounted for on Tuesdays at 12:30 EST. I'm a pretty miserable 24-33 in those games, but keep in mind that this includes many bets of at least +150 or more, including moneyline plays and percentage props (like last week with over 2.5 people to throw a pass). My ATS record without those opening line games isn't exactly the greatest either, at 20-25, but a lot of those are thanks to 2nd half debacles and have hit me very recently. However, there were 6 instances this year when I went back and either hedged or middled a wager bet on the opening line. These count in my "actual ATS" record, and went 1-5, leaving me at 19-20 in all other spots ATS.
What I haven't tracked, which I should have, are units in these games which I hit early vs. the ones I don't. I believe what you'll find is that about 80% of my profit comes off of the early lines. My 2nd half record, though not the greatest ATS, doesn't look so when you look at my units lost. One would figure that it would be much worse than where it stands. Everything that I do is in the units risked. If you follow this unit system by whatever multiple/dollar amount you so choose, whether you hit opening lines or closing lines, you SHOULD have made a decent amount of money thus far, and I expect that trend to continue. It's people who think I'm giving away near perfect picks that just stock up in a given week that will get into trouble. I don't necessarily believe that anyone does that, but it's a fair warning. I'll steal a line from Tatehill in the NBA Forum... It's all about the long haul.
Couple goals I have from here on out... I want to limit these stupid 5 unit plays. I had a 5 unit play laying double digits on the road lose outright... twice this year... (Tampa laid 9, so I guess that's not quite "double" but it's close enough and they also lost outright) That's the most embarassing part about this to me. My 2nd half plays have sucked and my 5 unit plays are losing money. My cash seems to come from totals still, as my sides seem to be wildly inconsistent.
However, I will say this... Some people might be attributing recent failure to a larger card seemingly by the weeks. But what I came to realize is that my intuition in games is right a large enough percentage of the time to play the games. This is what I learned from actually going to that Preds game a few weeks back. Most of the time I feel like I'm spot on with what's gonna go on in a game. So the cards keep getting bigger and will continue to be larger than they were at the beginning when we had big time success. But we could have, lest should have had a bigger success rate at the beginning of the season. I'm willing to sacrifice that % net number at the bottom to get the true bottom line of units in the black up. Look for more 2nd half plays in the coming weeks, as I'm going to figure some things out with data I've been collecting the past few weeks to catch up in the 2nd halves.
I just ask you all in this to show a bit of patience with me, as I'm surely going to have some roller coaster weeks from here on out before I finally settle into this. I've stated before that I'm 19 years old and by no means a "professional" gambler, and I'm still trying to get the ins and outs of gambling. A lot of this is being done through trial and error, just like most everyone out here probably learned when they were younger. But I promise you, if you bare with me, the picks are there. The knowledge of the game isn't lacking any, and I hope if nothing else, I've shown that I can cap this game with the best of them. I appreciate the support and will continue to try my best to see that bottom line number go up through the final month and a half of the season.
Sorry this turned into a bit of a tirade InSpades, but I felt it all had to be said. I've always been told I'm a bit long-winded as well. Guess this is no exception.
Best as always-
--AFLGuru:toast:
What I've been tracking with opening line vs. closing line...
This falls right into your alley of your plays and my numbers. There have been 39 games in which I've gotten the opening line, which I call any line in which I got in the first 30 minutes of the line opening (because I can't get ALL of my bets in THAT fast). The rest of my bets are either props, 2nd halfs, or lines that I bet that weren't off of those openers. This week I missed all of the opening lines, thus didn't include this week's stuff in with the numbers for opening line vs. closing line.
The point I try to prove by posting this is that it DOES matter where you get the line at (68.4% winners on opening line) but you're also a winner even if you get the worst line possible in these games that I got at a different number (60.5% winners on closing line). Keep this in mind about following or not following me.
This disappointment this season for me has been the performance NOT against that opening line, or the rest of the bets that aren't accounted for on Tuesdays at 12:30 EST. I'm a pretty miserable 24-33 in those games, but keep in mind that this includes many bets of at least +150 or more, including moneyline plays and percentage props (like last week with over 2.5 people to throw a pass). My ATS record without those opening line games isn't exactly the greatest either, at 20-25, but a lot of those are thanks to 2nd half debacles and have hit me very recently. However, there were 6 instances this year when I went back and either hedged or middled a wager bet on the opening line. These count in my "actual ATS" record, and went 1-5, leaving me at 19-20 in all other spots ATS.
What I haven't tracked, which I should have, are units in these games which I hit early vs. the ones I don't. I believe what you'll find is that about 80% of my profit comes off of the early lines. My 2nd half record, though not the greatest ATS, doesn't look so when you look at my units lost. One would figure that it would be much worse than where it stands. Everything that I do is in the units risked. If you follow this unit system by whatever multiple/dollar amount you so choose, whether you hit opening lines or closing lines, you SHOULD have made a decent amount of money thus far, and I expect that trend to continue. It's people who think I'm giving away near perfect picks that just stock up in a given week that will get into trouble. I don't necessarily believe that anyone does that, but it's a fair warning. I'll steal a line from Tatehill in the NBA Forum... It's all about the long haul.
Couple goals I have from here on out... I want to limit these stupid 5 unit plays. I had a 5 unit play laying double digits on the road lose outright... twice this year... (Tampa laid 9, so I guess that's not quite "double" but it's close enough and they also lost outright) That's the most embarassing part about this to me. My 2nd half plays have sucked and my 5 unit plays are losing money. My cash seems to come from totals still, as my sides seem to be wildly inconsistent.
However, I will say this... Some people might be attributing recent failure to a larger card seemingly by the weeks. But what I came to realize is that my intuition in games is right a large enough percentage of the time to play the games. This is what I learned from actually going to that Preds game a few weeks back. Most of the time I feel like I'm spot on with what's gonna go on in a game. So the cards keep getting bigger and will continue to be larger than they were at the beginning when we had big time success. But we could have, lest should have had a bigger success rate at the beginning of the season. I'm willing to sacrifice that % net number at the bottom to get the true bottom line of units in the black up. Look for more 2nd half plays in the coming weeks, as I'm going to figure some things out with data I've been collecting the past few weeks to catch up in the 2nd halves.
I just ask you all in this to show a bit of patience with me, as I'm surely going to have some roller coaster weeks from here on out before I finally settle into this. I've stated before that I'm 19 years old and by no means a "professional" gambler, and I'm still trying to get the ins and outs of gambling. A lot of this is being done through trial and error, just like most everyone out here probably learned when they were younger. But I promise you, if you bare with me, the picks are there. The knowledge of the game isn't lacking any, and I hope if nothing else, I've shown that I can cap this game with the best of them. I appreciate the support and will continue to try my best to see that bottom line number go up through the final month and a half of the season.
Sorry this turned into a bit of a tirade InSpades, but I felt it all had to be said. I've always been told I'm a bit long-winded as well. Guess this is no exception.
Best as always-
--AFLGuru:toast:
Guru,
Just read with interest your summary of performance; surely
anyone who has followed you this season and has utilized
a modicum of sense in money management must be pleased
with your results.
The fact is that over the long run noone hits 60% at -110;
no matter who tells you what, there has never been a documented
long-run performance by any handicapper or tout that has
achieved 60%.
Sure, for one year, even a couple of years, someone has to get
lucky; but over 10,000 picks, forget it; 57% would be
outstanding!
Just read with interest your summary of performance; surely
anyone who has followed you this season and has utilized
a modicum of sense in money management must be pleased
with your results.
The fact is that over the long run noone hits 60% at -110;
no matter who tells you what, there has never been a documented
long-run performance by any handicapper or tout that has
achieved 60%.
Sure, for one year, even a couple of years, someone has to get
lucky; but over 10,000 picks, forget it; 57% would be
outstanding!
