i am a little worried with the new that just came in, that right winger (in this game) michaelsen is out for panathinaikos, weakening a team already plagued by injuries and lack of bench depth, so i ll very reluctantly put another 0.5 units (0.2 and 0.3 respectively) on 3-0 and 2-1 exact scores at the best prices i find available, as covers of some sort, for the under i m already big on.
a(nother) loss all in all of about 2.5 units mainly due to (again) overstaking the panathinaikos under (watched the game and rangers had 3 or 4 half decent chances and panathinaikos 3 shots, of which, all turned into goals, thus messing up the under...i d like to start getting lucky instead of good real soon) and allocating and not betting flat.
Another betting day today and still deliberating on my choices...
Another betting day today and still deliberating on my choices...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by JackDee:
(watched the game and rangers had 3 or 4 half decent chances and panathinaikos 3 shots, of which, all turned into goals, thus messing up the under...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What are you talking about Jack?
May I refresh your memory?
Panathinaikos had a superb chance early in the second half (with the score 1-1) and a few minutes later Konstantinou hit the post. 2 great chances added to the 3 goals by Panathinaikos!
Anyway, I wish you to get lucky tonight!
(watched the game and rangers had 3 or 4 half decent chances and panathinaikos 3 shots, of which, all turned into goals, thus messing up the under...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What are you talking about Jack?
May I refresh your memory?
Panathinaikos had a superb chance early in the second half (with the score 1-1) and a few minutes later Konstantinou hit the post. 2 great chances added to the 3 goals by Panathinaikos!
Anyway, I wish you to get lucky tonight!
Alright for starters my 3.5 unit bet today will be on a good price of 1.5 i got on bayern to win a few days ago. I am already big on bayern not failing the first round of the cl for another, consecutive year, soccerbob's written enough about this game, it's undoubtedly the bet of the day, even worth betting a few units on the prices out there right now, despite the drastic line moves of the past few days, but like i said, i am already big on it so i wont bet it with todays lines.
Bayern at 1.5 for 3.5 units
Sociedad - Galatassaray.
Galatassaray are probably the worst team in the cl at the moment, their only chance to qualify will be with an away win here, i don't think they stand a chance really. Their only win has been at home to olympiakos, in a game where olympiakos dominated the game and missed tons of chances to grab an away win, as expected, galata got trashed away to olympiakos 3-0 and then managed to win a juventus b team, mainly due to spectacular performance by their keeper mondragon. Sociedad has got star striker kovacevich suspended and ex liverpool goalie verstefeld out with an injury, but the very talented winger de pedro is back in and the team has no other line up problems. Terim, galata coach, will start with a very offensive formation and go all or nothing. I ve seen this scenario time and again, and with galata's sub par defense, i am pretty sure nothing will be the case instead of all. Sociedad will be content with a draw here, but as long as galata keep attacking, failing to score and giving sociedad field space for counter attacks i am sure sociedad will manage to score. The -1/2 handicap is found at price of around 2, but there the -1/4 is also widely available at 1.75 (i got it at betfair), and i prefer doubling my units in the -1/4 and losing half in case of a draw. The away win stands no chance imo here. (well, except if the uefa officiating link comes into play, but, a. i ll take my chances it won't, and b. galata even with the officials on their side don't have enough chances to win)
Sociedad -1/4 at 1.75 for 2.5 units.
Aek - Monaco
Normally i d be on Aek +1/2 goal, but i am reluctant to bet a team that has not been delivering the goods this year neither at home nor abroad. Sure enough the team has been showing signs of recovery, but their problems are still there in my opinion. If i do bet it ll probably be in a small parley. What does posit value here is the over, at 2.15 (betfair again) i find this price a rather large overlay. Aek misse a fair share of good chances to score away at monaco, and lost 4-0, does this game have less than 45 chances of going over, i am not buying that.
Aek Over at 2.15 for 2 units
PSV Eindhoven v Deportivo
The 3 way line and the handicap are just right imo, no value here. I have found a nice prop at pinnacle here though that seems the way to go for this game, the time of the first goal being later than the first 33 minutes at 1.84. Deportivo will be defense minded here, they ll qualify with a draw or even a 1 goal defeat. Psv have already qualified for the uefa, so they will take some chances here with a more offensive formation and tactic, but that doesn't mean they ll neglect their defensive duties. The spaniards are masters of control football what with their technical qualities and they ll attempt to lower the pace of the game.
PSV Deportivo: Goal in first 33 mins? No at 1.833 for 1.25 units
Juventus - Olympiakos.
Always tough to cap a game with your favourite team involved, at least it is for me. The news have it that juventus coach lippi will again play with a team with a lot of players from the starting line up out. The -1 1/4 handicap here is worth a bet for sure at 1.7(betfair once more), should have been closer to 1.55-1.6 imo. I am also leaning on the under here at 2.0, my only qualm is olympiakos defense with starters antzas (stopper) and stoltidis (defensive midfielder) being out, and the pinnacle prop for a goal later than the 31st minute at what i think is a very worthwhile price of 2.0 (1.99 actually)
For the time being...
Olympiakos +1 1/4 at 1.7 for 1.5 units.
Juventus Olympiakos: Goal in first 31 mins? No at 2 for 1.5 units
Kiev - Inter
No value in the moneyline or the handicap here. But why is the Over 2 1/4 at 1.97 (pinnacle)? The overs are 4-1 for inter and 3-2 fo Kiev, for a combined 7-3. Sure enough it will be cold and snowing in kiev, not ideal for a high scoring match. But both teams are deperate for a win here, and i expect a fast paced game. Anyway, you can't make a half decent case for the under here, let alone the under 2 and 2 1/2 as a dog. Can't figure this line yout myself here, i might be wrong, but most of the evidence says i am right, so i am on it.
Kiev Over 2 1/4 at 1.97 for 1.25 units
Arsenal - Lokomotiv
As much as i think arsenal are more of harlem globtrotters than say lakers type of soccer team, and as much as i dont like betting on them, i really dont think lokomotiv stand a chance in here with arsenal in a must win situation, and their only match in 40 days (!) a 3-2 win over malaga b team with their home league way over. Another fine point here, an important one, is the fact that this anglofrench type of football arsenal play (well more french than anglo..) is well suited to the russian style of soccer, at leat much better than when facing italian, spanish or german teams. Decent value with the -1 handicap at 1.7.
Arsenal -1 at 1.7 for 1.25 units
Under 2.5 at 1.92 for 0.75 units
Lyon - Celtic.
This one has under written all over it, that's not always a good sign, or is it?
Lyon Under 2 1/4 at 1.96 for 0.75 units
I ve also made up my mind to take a chance with the aek +1/2 at 1.8, parleyed with bayern moneyline at 1.35.
Aek +1/2 and Bayern to win at 2.5 for 1.25 units.
I hope some of my analysis helped a few of you make their minds up or get another angle on the games, because in terms of wins and profits i have not been of any help at all to the forum lately.
Have a good football and betting day.
bol, Jack.
[This message was edited by JackDee on December 10, 2003 at 11:30 AM.]
Bayern at 1.5 for 3.5 units
Sociedad - Galatassaray.
Galatassaray are probably the worst team in the cl at the moment, their only chance to qualify will be with an away win here, i don't think they stand a chance really. Their only win has been at home to olympiakos, in a game where olympiakos dominated the game and missed tons of chances to grab an away win, as expected, galata got trashed away to olympiakos 3-0 and then managed to win a juventus b team, mainly due to spectacular performance by their keeper mondragon. Sociedad has got star striker kovacevich suspended and ex liverpool goalie verstefeld out with an injury, but the very talented winger de pedro is back in and the team has no other line up problems. Terim, galata coach, will start with a very offensive formation and go all or nothing. I ve seen this scenario time and again, and with galata's sub par defense, i am pretty sure nothing will be the case instead of all. Sociedad will be content with a draw here, but as long as galata keep attacking, failing to score and giving sociedad field space for counter attacks i am sure sociedad will manage to score. The -1/2 handicap is found at price of around 2, but there the -1/4 is also widely available at 1.75 (i got it at betfair), and i prefer doubling my units in the -1/4 and losing half in case of a draw. The away win stands no chance imo here. (well, except if the uefa officiating link comes into play, but, a. i ll take my chances it won't, and b. galata even with the officials on their side don't have enough chances to win)
Sociedad -1/4 at 1.75 for 2.5 units.
Aek - Monaco
Normally i d be on Aek +1/2 goal, but i am reluctant to bet a team that has not been delivering the goods this year neither at home nor abroad. Sure enough the team has been showing signs of recovery, but their problems are still there in my opinion. If i do bet it ll probably be in a small parley. What does posit value here is the over, at 2.15 (betfair again) i find this price a rather large overlay. Aek misse a fair share of good chances to score away at monaco, and lost 4-0, does this game have less than 45 chances of going over, i am not buying that.
Aek Over at 2.15 for 2 units
PSV Eindhoven v Deportivo
The 3 way line and the handicap are just right imo, no value here. I have found a nice prop at pinnacle here though that seems the way to go for this game, the time of the first goal being later than the first 33 minutes at 1.84. Deportivo will be defense minded here, they ll qualify with a draw or even a 1 goal defeat. Psv have already qualified for the uefa, so they will take some chances here with a more offensive formation and tactic, but that doesn't mean they ll neglect their defensive duties. The spaniards are masters of control football what with their technical qualities and they ll attempt to lower the pace of the game.
PSV Deportivo: Goal in first 33 mins? No at 1.833 for 1.25 units
Juventus - Olympiakos.
Always tough to cap a game with your favourite team involved, at least it is for me. The news have it that juventus coach lippi will again play with a team with a lot of players from the starting line up out. The -1 1/4 handicap here is worth a bet for sure at 1.7(betfair once more), should have been closer to 1.55-1.6 imo. I am also leaning on the under here at 2.0, my only qualm is olympiakos defense with starters antzas (stopper) and stoltidis (defensive midfielder) being out, and the pinnacle prop for a goal later than the 31st minute at what i think is a very worthwhile price of 2.0 (1.99 actually)
For the time being...
Olympiakos +1 1/4 at 1.7 for 1.5 units.
Juventus Olympiakos: Goal in first 31 mins? No at 2 for 1.5 units
Kiev - Inter
No value in the moneyline or the handicap here. But why is the Over 2 1/4 at 1.97 (pinnacle)? The overs are 4-1 for inter and 3-2 fo Kiev, for a combined 7-3. Sure enough it will be cold and snowing in kiev, not ideal for a high scoring match. But both teams are deperate for a win here, and i expect a fast paced game. Anyway, you can't make a half decent case for the under here, let alone the under 2 and 2 1/2 as a dog. Can't figure this line yout myself here, i might be wrong, but most of the evidence says i am right, so i am on it.
Kiev Over 2 1/4 at 1.97 for 1.25 units
Arsenal - Lokomotiv
As much as i think arsenal are more of harlem globtrotters than say lakers type of soccer team, and as much as i dont like betting on them, i really dont think lokomotiv stand a chance in here with arsenal in a must win situation, and their only match in 40 days (!) a 3-2 win over malaga b team with their home league way over. Another fine point here, an important one, is the fact that this anglofrench type of football arsenal play (well more french than anglo..) is well suited to the russian style of soccer, at leat much better than when facing italian, spanish or german teams. Decent value with the -1 handicap at 1.7.
Arsenal -1 at 1.7 for 1.25 units
Under 2.5 at 1.92 for 0.75 units
Lyon - Celtic.
This one has under written all over it, that's not always a good sign, or is it?
Lyon Under 2 1/4 at 1.96 for 0.75 units
I ve also made up my mind to take a chance with the aek +1/2 at 1.8, parleyed with bayern moneyline at 1.35.
Aek +1/2 and Bayern to win at 2.5 for 1.25 units.
I hope some of my analysis helped a few of you make their minds up or get another angle on the games, because in terms of wins and profits i have not been of any help at all to the forum lately.
Have a good football and betting day.
bol, Jack.
[This message was edited by JackDee on December 10, 2003 at 11:30 AM.]
"Panathinaikos had a superb chance early in the second half (with the score 1-1) and a few minutes later Konstantinou hit the post. 2 great chances added to the 3 goals by Panathinaikos!
Anyway, I wish you to get lucky tonight!"
Good luck to you too man, your obviously a panathinaikos fan judging by your avatar. 2 chances and 3 goals, make for 5 chances in total, and both the zoutaoutas goal, and esp. the one by basinas where goals out of nowhere, if you get basinas to score the same goal from the same position and give him 100 tries i don't think he d even manage this shot just once. What i am saying in essence is that you can get a very defensive game with few chances and still get a score of 1-3. And this game was just that. I was on Panathinaikos +1, so i was somewhat content for the away win, but you rarely see 3 goals scored with such a level of play, or at least not that often.
Football is a strange game, had zoutaoutas not scored this early after the rangers goal, panathinaikos would have been so low in morale they'd be the ones going down with 3 goals, but then you get the early equalizer, and the basinas goal out of nowhere and the scotish are dead in the water, press on, and have another goal scored against them.
I think you ll agree here, that it's pretty much what happened last year in the final olympiakos v. panathinaikos game. A goal in the first minutes of the game from a corner for olympiakos, morale plumets, another quick goal and it's over. It's a very thin line between victory and defeat...
Anyway, I wish you to get lucky tonight!"
Good luck to you too man, your obviously a panathinaikos fan judging by your avatar. 2 chances and 3 goals, make for 5 chances in total, and both the zoutaoutas goal, and esp. the one by basinas where goals out of nowhere, if you get basinas to score the same goal from the same position and give him 100 tries i don't think he d even manage this shot just once. What i am saying in essence is that you can get a very defensive game with few chances and still get a score of 1-3. And this game was just that. I was on Panathinaikos +1, so i was somewhat content for the away win, but you rarely see 3 goals scored with such a level of play, or at least not that often.
Football is a strange game, had zoutaoutas not scored this early after the rangers goal, panathinaikos would have been so low in morale they'd be the ones going down with 3 goals, but then you get the early equalizer, and the basinas goal out of nowhere and the scotish are dead in the water, press on, and have another goal scored against them.
I think you ll agree here, that it's pretty much what happened last year in the final olympiakos v. panathinaikos game. A goal in the first minutes of the game from a corner for olympiakos, morale plumets, another quick goal and it's over. It's a very thin line between victory and defeat...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Daglashen:
What are you talking about Jack?
May I refresh your memory?
Panathinaikos had a superb chance early in the second half (with the score 1-1) and a few minutes later Konstantinou hit the post. 2 great chances added to the 3 goals by Panathinaikos!
Anyway, I wish you to get lucky tonight!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
So nice to see how Greeks luve each other
Jackee, few comments if you don’t mind
:
- Bayern at 1.5 3way is an excellent price.
- I’d not underestimate Galatasaray. Hard to see them winning but not to lose looks pretty nice. Sociedad is crap in Premiera but in CL they know how to get right result – draw which means take +0.5 AH.
- I also believe AEK will finally make something against somehow diluted opponent. By “doing something” I mean Bajevic will not lose - he doesen't know how to win but know how to draw – or better said AEK at +0.5
Anyway, good luck to all your bets.
What are you talking about Jack?
May I refresh your memory?
Panathinaikos had a superb chance early in the second half (with the score 1-1) and a few minutes later Konstantinou hit the post. 2 great chances added to the 3 goals by Panathinaikos!
Anyway, I wish you to get lucky tonight!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
So nice to see how Greeks luve each other
Jackee, few comments if you don’t mind
- Bayern at 1.5 3way is an excellent price.
- I’d not underestimate Galatasaray. Hard to see them winning but not to lose looks pretty nice. Sociedad is crap in Premiera but in CL they know how to get right result – draw which means take +0.5 AH.
- I also believe AEK will finally make something against somehow diluted opponent. By “doing something” I mean Bajevic will not lose - he doesen't know how to win but know how to draw – or better said AEK at +0.5
Anyway, good luck to all your bets.
"So nice to see how Greeks luve each other"
We do really, but when it comes to soccer, olympiakos v. panathinaikos is something like liverpool v. man. united, and well, discussion can heat up.
"Bayern at 1.5 3way is an excellent price."
Yeap, forgot to mention it, i got it at ladbrokes a few days ago, haven't checked their current price but it should obviously be down to about 1.35 (my parley odd for bayern) as everywhere.
"I’d not underestimate Galatasaray. Hard to see them winning but not to lose looks pretty nice."
It's hard to underestimate this galatasaray team from what i ve seen so far in the cl, they are playing really badly doctor. Not to lose and draw is an option (hence my 1/4 bet), but you have to remember, like i said, that galata are going in with three attackers and playing all or nothing here, and thats usually a recipe for disaster. In any case i wouldn't be on galata this year even if they offered me a the bet for free.
" I also believe AEK will finally make something against somehow diluted opponent. By “doing something” I mean Bajevic will not lose - he doesen't know how to win but know how to draw – or better said AEK at +0.5"
Looks like they might, hence my bet on them together with bayern in the parley, but i ve watched aek this year, both live and on the tele, extesively and i am not conveinced, they ve lost their left winger georgatos, in great form, and are really playing with no left wing, both defensive midfielders seem tired and out of form, one of their two stoppers is a kid who was not even in the starting line up of a below average greek team last year, etc. etc. That's why i thought this one over and over before finaly parleying it and betting it, for two reasons a. monaco's absences b. half a goal at home when your opponent is not called real madrid, manchester or a few select others is worth a punt, for a small bet.
we'll see.
bol, jack.
We do really, but when it comes to soccer, olympiakos v. panathinaikos is something like liverpool v. man. united, and well, discussion can heat up.
"Bayern at 1.5 3way is an excellent price."
Yeap, forgot to mention it, i got it at ladbrokes a few days ago, haven't checked their current price but it should obviously be down to about 1.35 (my parley odd for bayern) as everywhere.
"I’d not underestimate Galatasaray. Hard to see them winning but not to lose looks pretty nice."
It's hard to underestimate this galatasaray team from what i ve seen so far in the cl, they are playing really badly doctor. Not to lose and draw is an option (hence my 1/4 bet), but you have to remember, like i said, that galata are going in with three attackers and playing all or nothing here, and thats usually a recipe for disaster. In any case i wouldn't be on galata this year even if they offered me a the bet for free.
" I also believe AEK will finally make something against somehow diluted opponent. By “doing something” I mean Bajevic will not lose - he doesen't know how to win but know how to draw – or better said AEK at +0.5"
Looks like they might, hence my bet on them together with bayern in the parley, but i ve watched aek this year, both live and on the tele, extesively and i am not conveinced, they ve lost their left winger georgatos, in great form, and are really playing with no left wing, both defensive midfielders seem tired and out of form, one of their two stoppers is a kid who was not even in the starting line up of a below average greek team last year, etc. etc. That's why i thought this one over and over before finaly parleying it and betting it, for two reasons a. monaco's absences b. half a goal at home when your opponent is not called real madrid, manchester or a few select others is worth a punt, for a small bet.
we'll see.
bol, jack.
as per usual my luck turns its fvcking back on me, another under over i bet this week, an over for the aek game high staked, and a few hours before the game, we get one hell of a rain here in athens, and the officials are thinking of cancelling the game due to the bad pitch conditions, but go ahead with it in the end, this being the last round and all, and fvck my over up.
-3.5 units for the day.
-3.5 units for the day.
Kallithea - Egaleo
Draw at 3.2 for 2 units.
Under at 1.8 (gamebookers) for 2 units.
Halkidona pk and +0.5 1.855 for 1.5 units.
I am also grabbing this handicap courtesy of pinnacle fast, as i reckon this line is off, and will be my largest bet this year.
Proodeftiki +2.5 at 1.658 (pinnacle) for 5 units.
(0.5 units 3-0 exact score at 8 (expekt))
If my horrible record so far this year is anything to go by (i don't think it is but i could be wrong), you should probably be fading these, i for once will be betting them.
Draw at 3.2 for 2 units.
Under at 1.8 (gamebookers) for 2 units.
Halkidona pk and +0.5 1.855 for 1.5 units.
I am also grabbing this handicap courtesy of pinnacle fast, as i reckon this line is off, and will be my largest bet this year.
Proodeftiki +2.5 at 1.658 (pinnacle) for 5 units.
(0.5 units 3-0 exact score at 8 (expekt))
If my horrible record so far this year is anything to go by (i don't think it is but i could be wrong), you should probably be fading these, i for once will be betting them.
Proodeftiki line moved (as i expected) and is now at 1.9 for Proodeftiki + 2 1/4.
Another 5 units bet today, it's a parley, similar to the pk for leading greek teams i rated and bet and lost for 3 units or more the previous weeks.
Aek pk at 1.41
Olympiakos pk at 1.15
(1.62)
Aek win at 1.8 for 1.5 units.
Aek over at 1.8 for 1.5 units.
Olympiakos over at 1.75 for 1.5 units.
I am also taking a punt at Panathinaikos -2 draw at 3.85 for 1 unit.
Another 5 units bet today, it's a parley, similar to the pk for leading greek teams i rated and bet and lost for 3 units or more the previous weeks.
Aek pk at 1.41
Olympiakos pk at 1.15
(1.62)
Aek win at 1.8 for 1.5 units.
Aek over at 1.8 for 1.5 units.
Olympiakos over at 1.75 for 1.5 units.
I am also taking a punt at Panathinaikos -2 draw at 3.85 for 1 unit.
About fvcking time i won a well deserved bet.
As expected the two and a half goal difference proved too much for panathinaikos to cover, they won 3-1, hence +2.79 for the handicap, and a nice +2.85 units, on the draw at 2 goals difference, +5.64 units, but still a long way to turn an abysmal losing record, which like i ve said i won't even dare calculating till i start getting some units in instead of out...
As expected the two and a half goal difference proved too much for panathinaikos to cover, they won 3-1, hence +2.79 for the handicap, and a nice +2.85 units, on the draw at 2 goals difference, +5.64 units, but still a long way to turn an abysmal losing record, which like i ve said i won't even dare calculating till i start getting some units in instead of out...
Aek pk at 1.41
Olympiakos pk at 1.15
(1.62)
Won +3.1
Aek win at 1.8 for 1.5 units.
Won +1.2 units.
Aek over at 1.8 for 1.5 units. Loss -1.5 units.
Olympiakos over at 1.75 for 1.5 unit. Won +1.13 units.
Yesterday: -1.9 units. (the aigaleo under easily won, but unfortunately aigaleo managed a marginal 0-1, not allowing a nice +4.4 return on the draw, paok somehow managed to turn a first half lead of 1-0 by chalchidona, making it 2-1 for another losing bet...)
Weekend Profit: +7.64 units (don't even ask about the ytd though, but in time i manage to turn it around)
Olympiakos pk at 1.15
(1.62)
Won +3.1
Aek win at 1.8 for 1.5 units.
Won +1.2 units.
Aek over at 1.8 for 1.5 units. Loss -1.5 units.
Olympiakos over at 1.75 for 1.5 unit. Won +1.13 units.
Yesterday: -1.9 units. (the aigaleo under easily won, but unfortunately aigaleo managed a marginal 0-1, not allowing a nice +4.4 return on the draw, paok somehow managed to turn a first half lead of 1-0 by chalchidona, making it 2-1 for another losing bet...)
Weekend Profit: +7.64 units (don't even ask about the ytd though, but in time i manage to turn it around)
Two games today. And some good bets.
Akratitos - Chalchidona.
Over 2.5 at 1.95 (fonbet, also widely available at 1.9) Can anyone say overlay? I don't see why the under should be the favourite in this spot. Well, to be exact, i realise the faulty rationale here, and how with a more careful analysis it takes no astrophysicist to figure out where his money should be. Here we go:
5/6 of Akratitos last games have gone over.
3/6 of Chalchidona last games have gone over.
Akratitos defense is probably it the bottom worse five in europe. 7 goals from Olympiakos and Aek, 6 goals from Panionios, 4 from Ionikos, sure this is no team where the under should be set at 1.95, right?
To make matters worse akratitos will be without their two most important defenders, bletsas and telkinski, in a team which a couple of weeks ago sacked almost half their line up due to financial problems, and filled this void with kids from their b team.
In terms of team formations, akratitos know they can't defend and they ll try to score, they don't stand a chance otherwise.
It's nice and sunny here in Athens, a bit cold, perfect weather for a high scoring game, the playing fields is one of the better around too.
Akratitos - Chalchidona. Over 2.5 at 1.95 for 2.5 units
Another good option here is the away win. Bookmakers have rated Chalchidona as almost equaly capable for the win, or slightly more so than akratitos as the 2.6-3-2.4 odds indicate. Now, why is that? When two teams are rated as almost equaly capable for the win, this means that a combination of factors such as their team strength, form, absences, motivation etc. etc. (and of course the home turf factor) are about par. But in this match up, Chalchidona is vastly better in most of these fields, or at least not worse off in any. They are the stronger team, the more in form team, their squad suffers only one absence in terms of their brazilian defensive midfielder while akratitos, like i said, is almost half the (bad) team they were few weeks ago, both of them are equaly motivated for this match up, and akratitos home playing field is no camp nou, with some thing like a couple of hundred (!) supporters in their home games. I could go on listing more factors here, but i think it will suffice to say that this is another must bet option. I ve capped the game at 1.75 for Chalchidona to win on the three way line so the good russian folks over at fonbet offering me 1.75 pk (or 1.7 at canbet) are making me a nice christmas gift, now how can i deny such courtesy from their part.
Chalchidona pk at 1.75 for 2.25 units.
As far as the other game for today goes, aek - kalithea, odds for an aek win at 1.1 are way too low for my style, no matter how possible i consider aek's win. The rest of the bets here worth a look are the over at 1.65 and aek -2 at 1.85 (pinnacle). With no further analysis i ll be on:
Over at 1.65 for 2.25 units.
Aek -2 at 1.85 for 2 units.
Aek 2-0 exact at 7.5 for 0.5 units.
bol, back tomorrow for the rest of the games.
Jack.
Akratitos - Chalchidona.
Over 2.5 at 1.95 (fonbet, also widely available at 1.9) Can anyone say overlay? I don't see why the under should be the favourite in this spot. Well, to be exact, i realise the faulty rationale here, and how with a more careful analysis it takes no astrophysicist to figure out where his money should be. Here we go:
5/6 of Akratitos last games have gone over.
3/6 of Chalchidona last games have gone over.
Akratitos defense is probably it the bottom worse five in europe. 7 goals from Olympiakos and Aek, 6 goals from Panionios, 4 from Ionikos, sure this is no team where the under should be set at 1.95, right?
To make matters worse akratitos will be without their two most important defenders, bletsas and telkinski, in a team which a couple of weeks ago sacked almost half their line up due to financial problems, and filled this void with kids from their b team.
In terms of team formations, akratitos know they can't defend and they ll try to score, they don't stand a chance otherwise.
It's nice and sunny here in Athens, a bit cold, perfect weather for a high scoring game, the playing fields is one of the better around too.
Akratitos - Chalchidona. Over 2.5 at 1.95 for 2.5 units
Another good option here is the away win. Bookmakers have rated Chalchidona as almost equaly capable for the win, or slightly more so than akratitos as the 2.6-3-2.4 odds indicate. Now, why is that? When two teams are rated as almost equaly capable for the win, this means that a combination of factors such as their team strength, form, absences, motivation etc. etc. (and of course the home turf factor) are about par. But in this match up, Chalchidona is vastly better in most of these fields, or at least not worse off in any. They are the stronger team, the more in form team, their squad suffers only one absence in terms of their brazilian defensive midfielder while akratitos, like i said, is almost half the (bad) team they were few weeks ago, both of them are equaly motivated for this match up, and akratitos home playing field is no camp nou, with some thing like a couple of hundred (!) supporters in their home games. I could go on listing more factors here, but i think it will suffice to say that this is another must bet option. I ve capped the game at 1.75 for Chalchidona to win on the three way line so the good russian folks over at fonbet offering me 1.75 pk (or 1.7 at canbet) are making me a nice christmas gift, now how can i deny such courtesy from their part.
Chalchidona pk at 1.75 for 2.25 units.
As far as the other game for today goes, aek - kalithea, odds for an aek win at 1.1 are way too low for my style, no matter how possible i consider aek's win. The rest of the bets here worth a look are the over at 1.65 and aek -2 at 1.85 (pinnacle). With no further analysis i ll be on:
Over at 1.65 for 2.25 units.
Aek -2 at 1.85 for 2 units.
Aek 2-0 exact at 7.5 for 0.5 units.
bol, back tomorrow for the rest of the games.
Jack.
One early bet for tommorow
Panathinaikos - Paniliakos.
Pinnacle have set the handicap odds here at -2 at 1.95, expekt is offering panathinaikos to cover -1.5 at 1.5, and the eurobet people have got Paniliakos +2.5 at 1.8, unfortunately only to be bet in a triple parley. Why not. Panathinaikos is not the team to win by a 3 goal margin, esp. when more than half the squad is out for one reason or another. I ll be parleying that with the aek 1x which is pretty much a given, and olympiakos no to lose tomorrow, i ll also do something i very very seldomly do, covering my ass with not one, but three exact scores, a pretty much bullet proof bet if you ask me.
Paniliakos +2.5 at 1.8
Aek 1x at 1.01
Olympiakos x2 at 1.1
(2.0 combined odds)
for 4 units.
(1 unit cover in total, panathinaikos to win 3-0 exact at 7.5 with aek, and olympiakos for cover at combined odds of 9 for 0.45 units, 4-0 and 4-1 exact scores for combined odds of 11.5 each (at 9.5 odds originally)for 0.2 and 0.35 units respectively.)
I appreciate some of you might think this is not much of a bet when you also bet 3 exact scores of the other side but look at it this way. If i bet my 5 units total on aek and olympiakos in a 1.11 parley i d stand a chance to either win 0.5something unit or lose 5. By including Panathinaikos here, and the covers, for what i pretty much objectively rate as less than 2% chances of other scores such as 5-0, 5-1, 5-2, etc. i ll either get about 95% of my money back in case of the exact score covers occuring, or win about 3 units, or of course lose all 5 in case either aek or olympiakos dont do me the favour. Hence from a +1,-5 scenario with something like 98% certainty i am going for the +3, +-0.5 say,-5 one, not bad at all.
UPDATE: Just had a look at the handicaps over at the russian mafiosi of fonbet, guess what, they got paniliakos +2 at 1.62, very damn interesting, from an often opinionated bookmaker, that differs many time for the mainstream in terms of the odds they set...
[This message was edited by JackDee on December 20, 2003 at 11:09 AM.]
Panathinaikos - Paniliakos.
Pinnacle have set the handicap odds here at -2 at 1.95, expekt is offering panathinaikos to cover -1.5 at 1.5, and the eurobet people have got Paniliakos +2.5 at 1.8, unfortunately only to be bet in a triple parley. Why not. Panathinaikos is not the team to win by a 3 goal margin, esp. when more than half the squad is out for one reason or another. I ll be parleying that with the aek 1x which is pretty much a given, and olympiakos no to lose tomorrow, i ll also do something i very very seldomly do, covering my ass with not one, but three exact scores, a pretty much bullet proof bet if you ask me.
Paniliakos +2.5 at 1.8
Aek 1x at 1.01
Olympiakos x2 at 1.1
(2.0 combined odds)
for 4 units.
(1 unit cover in total, panathinaikos to win 3-0 exact at 7.5 with aek, and olympiakos for cover at combined odds of 9 for 0.45 units, 4-0 and 4-1 exact scores for combined odds of 11.5 each (at 9.5 odds originally)for 0.2 and 0.35 units respectively.)
I appreciate some of you might think this is not much of a bet when you also bet 3 exact scores of the other side but look at it this way. If i bet my 5 units total on aek and olympiakos in a 1.11 parley i d stand a chance to either win 0.5something unit or lose 5. By including Panathinaikos here, and the covers, for what i pretty much objectively rate as less than 2% chances of other scores such as 5-0, 5-1, 5-2, etc. i ll either get about 95% of my money back in case of the exact score covers occuring, or win about 3 units, or of course lose all 5 in case either aek or olympiakos dont do me the favour. Hence from a +1,-5 scenario with something like 98% certainty i am going for the +3, +-0.5 say,-5 one, not bad at all.
UPDATE: Just had a look at the handicaps over at the russian mafiosi of fonbet, guess what, they got paniliakos +2 at 1.62, very damn interesting, from an often opinionated bookmaker, that differs many time for the mainstream in terms of the odds they set...
[This message was edited by JackDee on December 20, 2003 at 11:09 AM.]
Aigaleo - Olympiakos 2 at 1.75 for 2.25 units.
Under at 1.85 for 2 units.
Paniliakos + 2.5 at 1.8, Olympiakos 1x at 1.1, and panionios pk at 1.8, parley for 2.5 units (3-0 exact for paniliakos game cover for 0.25 units)
Aris +1 1/4 for 2.25 units
Under at 2.1 for 2 units
Proodeftiki - Panionios under at 1.71 for 1.5 units.
Under at 1.85 for 2 units.
Paniliakos + 2.5 at 1.8, Olympiakos 1x at 1.1, and panionios pk at 1.8, parley for 2.5 units (3-0 exact for paniliakos game cover for 0.25 units)
Aris +1 1/4 for 2.25 units
Under at 2.1 for 2 units
Proodeftiki - Panionios under at 1.71 for 1.5 units.
