For starters.
Panathinaikos + 1 at 1.8 for 1.75 units.
As much as a low opinion i have for panathinaikos i feel 1 whole goal difference with a rangers team with most of their quality players out is a worthwhile bet.
But my main bet here, and possibly the highest over/under i have bet this season, is the under. Both are defensive minded teams, panathinaikos will play with a highly defensive 5-3-2 formation, rangers are content here with a draw so they are not going to risk much here, but neither will panathinaikos who are aiming for the away win, because they know they can't open up defensively and if they do, they ll pay for it dearly. Everything points to the under, the projected pace of the game, panathinaikos absences in offense, rangers's serious offensive and esp. midfield absences, past results etc. etc.
I ll take my chances at pinnacle's Under 2.5 at 1.85 for 3.5 units.
The rest of my selections are:
Manchester United at 1.6 and Partizan level ball at 1.82, for combined odds of 2.92, for 2.25 units.
Man. U. Under at 1.78 for 2 units.
Partizan - Marseille Under at 1.75 for 1.5 units.
Besiktas - Chelsea Over 2, 2.5 at 1.9 for 1 unit (very strange line imo, i too see a low scoring affair here, but not worth the odds offered, and hence the contrarian approach)
Brugge - Ajax Under at 1.8 for 1.25 units. ajax has been an unders goldmine for the past two years, can't see no reason why this game will not go under too.
(as you can see i ll be betting a lot of unders today, the unders so far in the cl are 48-32 with respect to the overs, and this is very high indeed because with an (underestimated) average of say 1.8 for the unders and 1 unit bets in every under, you'd have a 48*0.8-32, i.e. a good 6.4 unit profit, and i cant see why this should change today, in what is the final and most crucial round of the groups, and nervous, tight, defensive matches are in order)
Real - Porto Under 3 at 1.8 for 1 unit, can't see how this game can be a goal fest really...
Milan pk +0.5 at 1.9 for 1.25 units, i ll be going against the grain here, sure enough milan will be almost half the squad we all know, and the other half will probably have their minds on the intercontinental final with boca, but, milan has some spectacular talent in their reserves and are playing at home with the third from last of the spanish league, i ll gladly take the half goal and the pk here.
Sparta Praha - Lazio, Sparta +1/4 at 1.8 for 1 unit. I am still not conveinced by lazio despite some recent good performances, i don't think they ll be very well rested from the local derby to face a hostile crowd, travelling, and adverse weather conditions in prague, plus they have some absences. I ll take the quarter goal and Sparta, thank you.
Ajax pk at 1.82 for 1 unit.
And a parley for the fun of it for 1 unit.
Partizan pk 1.8
Milan pk 2.1
Ajax pk 1.8
Sparta pk 1.8
i am stone cold in my greek picks, have been doing much better in the cl, so anyone who likes my rationale in any of these games and decides to bet them better be cautious because lately i ve been right most of the time, but unfortunate more than most of the time.
bol.
Jack.
[This message was edited by JackDee on December 09, 2003 at 10:00 AM.]
