I love the under in the Tulsa game and have actually already played it for a half a unit. Not really a big enough bet to put in my thread. But nevertheless worth playing. Tulsa returns only 5 starters on offense. And has to replace their QB and offensive coordinator. They've been working hard on their defensive issues in the offseason. And with 8 starters back should be much better this year. I think this is the biggest thing that HC Graham is excited about with this team. Tulane on the other hand has hired a new DC themselves. And this coach likes to throw in more blitz schemes than the last coach. So the new QB for Tulsa could get initiated pretty quick. Tulane still doesn't have an offense. And they only scored 7 on Tulsa last season. So i expect a lower scoring game this year than the 63 that were scored at Tulsa last season. And i actually think this is going to be a closer cover for Tulsa than people expect. I'm thinking something like a 30-14 game.
Wake Forest (-2) over Baylor **
Many people are big on Baylor having a huge year and making it to a bowl. And I think the Bears will be improved this season in Briles second year. But I also think that maybe people are expecting too much too soon with this team. Let's get real here. Baylor hasn't had a winning team in many years. And they haven't been to a bowl game in 15 years. They are going up against a Wake team who knows all about winning and have been to a bowl for the last 3 years. And they are playing at home in almost a pickem game against a Baylor team who has only won one game on the road in the last 2 years. And that was against Buffalo, when they were a bad team. Yes, Wake has lost 7 starters on defense. And Robert Griffin is a superstar in the making. But other than that, Wake is as good or better than Baylor at just about every position on the field. There is NO clearcut advantages for Baylor in this game. Baylor is basically a team built on finesse and speed. And Wake has built a reputation as a tough and physically punishing team under Grobe. They lost a little of their mojo last season, but the OL has worked their tails off in this offseason. And to quote some of the defensive players "these guys are tough, physical and downright mean at times in practice". And with a total of 116 starts coming back on this line, I expect Wake to pound Baylor and win the rushing battle.
QB Riley will be a four year starter who has the highest completion percentage in ACC history. Robert Griffin was Newcomer Of The Year last season. But he still has zero road wins on his resume. So I would actually rate the QB position about even at the point of these two players careers. Wake has 24 seniors returning to this team including 11 senior starters and 16 total in the two deep. So despite the heavy defensive losses, this is still an experienced Wake team. And Baylor is still a bad defensive team on the road. I think this game is all about perception instead of the true facts. And that's why this line has stayed below a FG and is still just about right on the opening number. Although I like Baylor to upset somebody this season and make it to a bowl, I don't think it's going to happen in this game. There is also a decent chance that Griffin might suffer the sophomore jinx this season with what I think could be a little weaker OL. Especially without his blindside tackle Smith, who ended up going number 2 overall in the NFL draft. These kinds of players are always missed by teams like Baylor who can't just reload every season. I really like the new cocky attitude that Briles has instilled in this Baylor team. But there is a difference between attitute and physically being able to whip their opponents. And Wake is the physical team here. Something else that makes me hesitant to bet many games on Baylor this year is they had a great season in 2008 going 8-4 ATS. Like I've said here before, it's very hard to repeat those kinds of numbers. Baylor made these point spreads by being double digit dogs in most of their games. They won't get that kind of break this year, as we are already seeing with this first line. Baylor is going from being 11 point dogs at home to 2 point dogs on the road to the same team in a one year period. This is a pretty big spread gap in one year. Especially considering Wake whipped them 41-13 last year. I look for an improved Baylor to give Wake a good hard fought game. But when it comes to crunch time and close games, my money is almost always on Jim Grobe and Riley Skinner.
Wake Forest 36
Baylor 31
Many people are big on Baylor having a huge year and making it to a bowl. And I think the Bears will be improved this season in Briles second year. But I also think that maybe people are expecting too much too soon with this team. Let's get real here. Baylor hasn't had a winning team in many years. And they haven't been to a bowl game in 15 years. They are going up against a Wake team who knows all about winning and have been to a bowl for the last 3 years. And they are playing at home in almost a pickem game against a Baylor team who has only won one game on the road in the last 2 years. And that was against Buffalo, when they were a bad team. Yes, Wake has lost 7 starters on defense. And Robert Griffin is a superstar in the making. But other than that, Wake is as good or better than Baylor at just about every position on the field. There is NO clearcut advantages for Baylor in this game. Baylor is basically a team built on finesse and speed. And Wake has built a reputation as a tough and physically punishing team under Grobe. They lost a little of their mojo last season, but the OL has worked their tails off in this offseason. And to quote some of the defensive players "these guys are tough, physical and downright mean at times in practice". And with a total of 116 starts coming back on this line, I expect Wake to pound Baylor and win the rushing battle.
QB Riley will be a four year starter who has the highest completion percentage in ACC history. Robert Griffin was Newcomer Of The Year last season. But he still has zero road wins on his resume. So I would actually rate the QB position about even at the point of these two players careers. Wake has 24 seniors returning to this team including 11 senior starters and 16 total in the two deep. So despite the heavy defensive losses, this is still an experienced Wake team. And Baylor is still a bad defensive team on the road. I think this game is all about perception instead of the true facts. And that's why this line has stayed below a FG and is still just about right on the opening number. Although I like Baylor to upset somebody this season and make it to a bowl, I don't think it's going to happen in this game. There is also a decent chance that Griffin might suffer the sophomore jinx this season with what I think could be a little weaker OL. Especially without his blindside tackle Smith, who ended up going number 2 overall in the NFL draft. These kinds of players are always missed by teams like Baylor who can't just reload every season. I really like the new cocky attitude that Briles has instilled in this Baylor team. But there is a difference between attitute and physically being able to whip their opponents. And Wake is the physical team here. Something else that makes me hesitant to bet many games on Baylor this year is they had a great season in 2008 going 8-4 ATS. Like I've said here before, it's very hard to repeat those kinds of numbers. Baylor made these point spreads by being double digit dogs in most of their games. They won't get that kind of break this year, as we are already seeing with this first line. Baylor is going from being 11 point dogs at home to 2 point dogs on the road to the same team in a one year period. This is a pretty big spread gap in one year. Especially considering Wake whipped them 41-13 last year. I look for an improved Baylor to give Wake a good hard fought game. But when it comes to crunch time and close games, my money is almost always on Jim Grobe and Riley Skinner.
Wake Forest 36
Baylor 31
That Wake line is a joke.. where is all this love for Baylor coming from? Griffin is just one player, sure he gets talked about a lot, but college football before everything else is about the team and top to bottom Wake is better, and they are better coached as well. They stomped this Baylor team on the road last year, and now get them at home. If Wake was -7 or so I could see it, but under a FG?
GoSooners, I am glad to see you on the Wake game as I made it a play as well earlier in the week. I have been toying around with buying it back due to Griffin cuz he scares the hell out of me, I'm not gonna lie. I think if they can come up with some early stops, we should be in good shape and will know early in the game how we stand. I like the fact that Wake plays physical on both on sides of the ball and I am not sold on the Baylor Kool Aid at all. What about that Oregon game, just pitiful from me being on the wrong side, to the crap that Blount pulled. I took that under tonight on the Tulsa game as I saw you said you made it a play and I was leaning that way anyways. Gotta have a little action on those boring Friday games. The real football starts tom! BOL tom.
-Leatherballs-
-Leatherballs-
Leather...I didn't put the under in my thread, but I did hit it tonight for a half a unit. It makes me nervous even saying under and Tulsa in the same sentence. But I felt with two new QB's in the game it set up for an under. The Oregon game last night was what it was. Bad coaching preparation on the Oregon side. This is something that us as handicappers can't do anything about. It probably wasn't the smartest play by me because it had a few more unknowns going in that I was comfortable with. But luckily I only had a small play on it. The OSU/Georgia game has also had some crazy unknowns revolving around it this week that I'm not comfortable with either. This is a big reason why I bet most of the first week's game small. Who thought NCST would lay an egg like that after the way they performed at the end of last season. But every season is different for these teams. And all we have to go by is what we read on the net and see in the publications. You can't really predict team chemistry. And neither NCST or Oregon had much of it last night.
I think I saw it in someone elses thread that you were leaning towards the under. Yeah, Tulsa will be a scoring machine it appears as the season goes on. They are freaking ready to go in like 5 seconds and can score quickly. As the year goes on, they may be a great over team to hit. Yeah, the unknowns make me second guess the first couple of weeks. I go small as well as I read way too much and it messes with me initial leans and picks. Lets get em tom. and I will be cheering for you and everyone else that will be on Georgia. I do live in TN so no one bets against the SEC as they think they do not lose, but that game like you said, has so much going on it, I believe I will just watch and be a fan as I have no clue as to what will happen in that game. Going small is the probably the smart thing to do....
