GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 9-13

[YourAllAmerican]

I think Missouri's Heisman campaign for Chase Daniel is a real key thing in that game, maybe THE key -- they're going to have him putting up giant numbers every time he can against D-I opponents. I've already taken Mizzou as a 1H play (I like betting first halves for about half the size of my expected full-game bet on big favorites) with an eye toward making another 2H play after I see how things are looking in Columbia on Saturday.

I also think taking the Tigers for the full game giving 26 is very strong, and I may go ahead and add another unit on that angle. If they can run it up and get Daniel some gaudy numbers, I fully expect they'll do just that.

 

[bookiebanger]

Any thoughts on NC-Rutgers tonight?

 

[chopsone]

You know your Big XII very well. Any thoughts on Iowa State/Iowa. I am leaning toward the Clones.

About the USF/KU game. The play in this game is the under. Neither team will have played a defense as quick and fast as the one they will play on Friday. This goes not only for KU but for USF as well. The game they played two years ago ended a 13-7 KU win going way below the number. I feel that will be the case here as well. I am seeing a 19-14 KU win myself, but I am a homer in that department so don't take my word for it there. But I am all over the under as soon as this comes out.

 

[Conan]

California at Maryland....Cal travels to Maryland after two big wins. And Maryland comes limping back home after losing to a Sunbelt team. So what's the attraction? Well nothing. It never is with Maryland. If you look back in their recent history, Maryland has never looked good early in the year against the cupcakes. They barely get by the Florida Internationals and William & Mary's every season it seems. But Maryland does one thing steady most every year. They get to a bowl game. And they usually win those games ugly just like they do their regular season games. This team is never going to bowl you over with their offense. They like to run the ball and play defense. Which is why I'm attracted to this team. I LOVE running dogs. Especially ones who are NOT moving up in conference class and getting double digits at home. And this team definitely qualifies. RB Da Rel Scott has run for over 300 yards already on only 37 carries. And despite their losses Maryland still plays good defense. Just don't bet on this team when they are made double digit favorites. Anywhere or anytime! But when they are made the dogs, you better take a long look.
As for Cal, I like the way this team is playing. They are definitely heading the right direction and attracting national attention. But keep in mind this is a team that is returning only 12 starters off a 7-6 team. They are a team with inexperienced skill players and a decent but not great defense, travelling across the country and laying over 2 TD's to a team who played in a bowl game last year and is returning 15 starters. This is the very same Maryland team that took one of the best teams in the PAC-10 last year Oregon State down to the wire in their bowl game. And I guarantee you OSU had a better defense than this Cal team. Maryland's loss was a surprise last week. But their offensive coordinator said in an interview that they blew 8 scoring opportunities in that game. So if they were to play MTSU again, Maryland would probably win the game in their usual ugly fashion. One thing I can tell you now, Maryland HC Friedgen is no dummy. He is one good coach. And I guarantee he'll play Cal much different than CAL's first two opponents. I expect him to stack the box and make CAL's very young receivers to make the plays. But keep in mind that Cal hasn't really had to get their WR's involved in their games because they've been so successful running the ball. I'm betting this is going to have to change this weekend. Cal has played one mediocre defense in Michigan St. And they've played one of the worst teams in division 1 WSU last week. Maryland will be a horse of a different color and present a whole other set of problems for this Cal offense. I guarantee it. Maryland has won me alot of money over the years when they are made the dogs. And they are by far the most physical team on defense that Cal has faced. I'm going out on a limb here and betting big money that Cal maybe escapes out of College Park after an ugly game. I'm puttin in this play now because the damned line keeps creeping down. I should have got it at 16.5...But I'll take it at 15. Taking Maryland (+15) over CAL **** (Best Bet)

GS, when the lines were first posted I nailed Cal -13 mostly as a reaction to having seen MD play the Emerald Bowl which was my last memory of them (which they lost) and Cal coming off a beatdown win, I was feeling hot about Cal.

Having thought about it more, winning that bet would be counting on Cal's offense to run away with the game, putting enough distance between themselves and the Terps for a cover. Maybe so. But doubtful because "NORMALLY" Cal simply outruns their opponents and let's their defense be "good enough" to hold off the opposition. After some thought, 2 TD's on the road vs a team that rarely lets games get away by this margin doesn't look so good. But it's still possible.... but not probable from where I stand. That puts my bet at the bottom of my list. I mentioned several days ago that I was putting that action on the back burner, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to middle it. Now it's @ MD +15.

Just checking with you because now that it's at 15, what about 16 (for the sake of a better middle.) Any idea about the line move here? Do you think it will keep climbing before it heads south? 16 or 16.5 (dare I say 17) would be a lovely number for me to reverse this action on a middle possibility. That's my plan.

**** is a big play for you. I'm hoping the Cal squares keep pushing the line up and make it even easier than it already has become.

 

[mlmleads]

GS, when the lines were first posted I nailed Cal -13 mostly as a reaction to having seen MD play the Emerald Bowl which was my last memory of them (which they lost) and Cal coming off a beatdown win, I was feeling hot about Cal.

Having thought about it more, winning that bet would be counting on Cal's offense to run away with the game, putting enough distance between themselves and the Terps for a cover. Maybe so. But doubtful because "NORMALLY" Cal simply outruns their opponents and let's their defense be "good enough" to hold off the opposition. After some thought, 2 TD's on the road vs a team that rarely lets games get away by this margin doesn't look so good. But it's still possible.... but not probable from where I stand. That puts my bet at the bottom of my list. I mentioned several days ago that I was putting that action on the back burner, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to middle it. Now it's @ MD +15.

Just checking with you because now that it's at 15, what about 16 (for the sake of a better middle.) Any idea about the line move here? Do you think it will keep climbing before it heads south? 16 or 16.5 (dare I say 17) would be a lovely number for me to reverse this action on a middle possibility. That's my plan.

**** is a big play for you. I'm hoping the Cal squares keep pushing the line up and make it even easier than it already has become.

I got Maryland at +16 last night.. Its back down now but could head back there. I originally grabbed Cal at -14 I since layed that off plus additional 1.5 units on Maryland +16.. so I do have a possible middle but still leaning on Maryland.

 

[mlmleads]

You know your Big XII very well. Any thoughts on Iowa State/Iowa. I am leaning toward the Clones.

About the USF/KU game. The play in this game is the under. Neither team will have played a defense as quick and fast as the one they will play on Friday. This goes not only for KU but for USF as well. The game they played two years ago ended a 13-7 KU win going way below the number. I feel that will be the case here as well. I am seeing a 19-14 KU win myself, but I am a homer in that department so don't take my word for it there. But I am all over the under as soon as this comes out.

My two sense says Iowa state covers because this is a a big Instate battle and neither side is to shabby this year.. Should be a great game and I am thinking 10 points or less difference in the end..

 

[trentmoney]

California at Maryland....Cal travels to Maryland after two big wins. And Maryland comes limping back home after losing to a Sunbelt team. So what's the attraction? Well nothing. It never is with Maryland. If you look back in their recent history, Maryland has never looked good early in the year against the cupcakes. They barely get by the Florida Internationals and William & Mary's every season it seems. But Maryland does one thing steady most every year. They get to a bowl game. And they usually win those games ugly just like they do their regular season games. This team is never going to bowl you over with their offense. They like to run the ball and play defense. Which is why I'm attracted to this team. I LOVE running dogs. Especially ones who are NOT moving up in conference class and getting double digits at home. And this team definitely qualifies. RB Da Rel Scott has run for over 300 yards already on only 37 carries. And despite their losses Maryland still plays good defense. Just don't bet on this team when they are made double digit favorites. Anywhere or anytime! But when they are made the dogs, you better take a long look.
As for Cal, I like the way this team is playing. They are definitely heading the right direction and attracting national attention. But keep in mind this is a team that is returning only 12 starters off a 7-6 team. They are a team with inexperienced skill players and a decent but not great defense, travelling across the country and laying over 2 TD's to a team who played in a bowl game last year and is returning 15 starters. This is the very same Maryland team that took one of the best teams in the PAC-10 last year Oregon State down to the wire in their bowl game. And I guarantee you OSU had a better defense than this Cal team. Maryland's loss was a surprise last week. But their offensive coordinator said in an interview that they blew 8 scoring opportunities in that game. So if they were to play MTSU again, Maryland would probably win the game in their usual ugly fashion. One thing I can tell you now, Maryland HC Friedgen is no dummy. He is one good coach. And I guarantee he'll play Cal much different than CAL's first two opponents. I expect him to stack the box and make CAL's very young receivers to make the plays. But keep in mind that Cal hasn't really had to get their WR's involved in their games because they've been so successful running the ball. I'm betting this is going to have to change this weekend. Cal has played one mediocre defense in Michigan St. And they've played one of the worst teams in division 1 WSU last week. Maryland will be a horse of a different color and present a whole other set of problems for this Cal offense. I guarantee it. Maryland has won me alot of money over the years when they are made the dogs. And they are by far the most physical team on defense that Cal has faced. I'm going out on a limb here and betting big money that Cal maybe escapes out of College Park after an ugly game. I'm puttin in this play now because the damned line keeps creeping down. I should have got it at 16.5...But I'll take it at 15. Taking Maryland (+15) over CAL **** (Best Bet)

GS-

i was gonna do the write-up to spare you the time since you do them all the time..!! there's a few things i'll add as well in my thread

but of more importance, i took ML @ 600 last night at cris... it was the best price around (i saw +490 and +520) but that's still not a bad payoff. For someone who never plays moneylines i felt that 6-1 was worth the shot on the outright upset

:toast:

 

[UoweDucks]

Like the Maryland pick. I may add to it since I got the early line at 14.5.

Best of luck!

 

[silver7]

You're Right Longevity Is No Guarantee Of Excellence

just cause you been doing this a lot longer doesn't necessarily mean you are better. i love how many times i have seen people say something like this. i don't care how long you have been doing this, all that matter is that you are successful and I have been for a long time.

as for the post count I own my own busiesses so I have all the time I want to post away. I have been posting my plays daily so that may have something to do with it?

I love how these people who have been here longer are quick to attack some of the newer people when they share their opinion. the other poster shared the same exact opinion as I, but he wasn't attacked cause he had an older sign up date. all these "vets" need to get over their age and sign up date.

If it came off as an attack it was not meant to. As for "doing it for a long time", my point was not that I was necessarily "better", just that my way had also worked for yrs. Was not denigrating your abilities. Buy, don't buy, it's a personal choice and not worth arguing about. But if you'll look back I was pretty much being told "you don't know WTF you're talking about". I retaliated and I ALWAYS will. BTW I do read & enjoy your WU's, let's let it go at that. Too much arguing here, and I'm just as guilty as anyone. Thin skinned Irishman that I am. BOL on your capping, now & in the future.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, when the lines were first posted I nailed Cal -13 mostly as a reaction to having seen MD play the Emerald Bowl which was my last memory of them (which they lost) and Cal coming off a beatdown win, I was feeling hot about Cal.

Having thought about it more, winning that bet would be counting on Cal's offense to run away with the game, putting enough distance between themselves and the Terps for a cover. Maybe so. But doubtful because "NORMALLY" Cal simply outruns their opponents and let's their defense be "good enough" to hold off the opposition. After some thought, 2 TD's on the road vs a team that rarely lets games get away by this margin doesn't look so good. But it's still possible.... but not probable from where I stand. That puts my bet at the bottom of my list. I mentioned several days ago that I was putting that action on the back burner, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to middle it. Now it's @ MD +15.

Just checking with you because now that it's at 15, what about 16 (for the sake of a better middle.) Any idea about the line move here? Do you think it will keep climbing before it heads south? 16 or 16.5 (dare I say 17) would be a lovely number for me to reverse this action on a middle possibility. That's my plan.

**** is a big play for you. I'm hoping the Cal squares keep pushing the line up and make it even easier than it already has become.

Conan...Your right about Maryland not letting teams get away from them. Last season West Virginia had a better running offense than CAL and only scored 31 on Maryland. I watched that game and WV had to earn every bit of it. And personally I think it's going to take more points than that to cover this spread. Maryland will score some points here. If you look back at most every team who has beaten Maryland, most of them still didn't score out of the 30's. Maryland has only been beaten by more than 15 points twice in the last 5 years on their home field. CAL will have to be something pretty special to do it. As for this line, I waited because judging by the RX and the way they were jumping all over CAL making this their game of the year and all, I thought the line might possibly get up to 17. But as much as the public is on Cal's bandwagon, the line keeps coming down...Hmmm. Now this could possibly change and go back the other way when all of these public bets start coming in before kickoff. I went ahead and got it now because I started seeing it this morning at 14.5 in a few places...Good luck

 

[GoSooners]

My two sense says Iowa state covers because this is a a big Instate battle and neither side is to shabby this year.. Should be a great game and I am thinking 10 points or less difference in the end..

Damn, I'm really stuck on this Iowa-ISU game. I hate it, because I've played this game every year for I don't know how long. But at this point I just don't know. At first I was favoring Iowa. But when I see this line nearing the 2 TD mark, the more I'm inclined to take ISU. This is a big emotional rivalry game that has alot to do with other things like recruiting and state pride. Matching the players up from both sides makes me want to take Iowa. I think they have more talent this year. But I think Gene Chizik is a better coach and will have his team playing sky high...Tough call. I might grow some balls and put a play down on this game before the end of the week.

 

[GoSooners]

I think Missouri's Heisman campaign for Chase Daniel is a real key thing in that game, maybe THE key -- they're going to have him putting up giant numbers every time he can against D-I opponents. I've already taken Mizzou as a 1H play (I like betting first halves for about half the size of my expected full-game bet on big favorites) with an eye toward making another 2H play after I see how things are looking in Columbia on Saturday.

I also think taking the Tigers for the full game giving 26 is very strong, and I may go ahead and add another unit on that angle. If they can run it up and get Daniel some gaudy numbers, I fully expect they'll do just that.

AA...As much as I like Mizzou, I might knock this down to a two star play because of the nasty weather moving into the area this weekend. If that happens I think we're going to see a dink and dunk and run type of game from Mizzou. It would probably eliminate the long pass/big play possibilites because of a wet ball (provided it's raining during the game). It's too bad too, because Nevada has been very susceptible to the long pass over the years. Nebraska lit them up last year by 42 points. And pre-Erickson ASU lit them up for 52 points the year before. And Nevada had a good team that year by WAC standards. This team just doesn't play well with the big boys away from home. But I fear we may not see that type of game here. The weather conditions will dictate how this game goes. And on top of that a heavy downpour of rain keeps the fans away. So it may not feel like much of a Saturday afternoon at the ballpark homefield advantage type of game when all is said and done. One thing that could be going in the UNDER play direction, Nevada's leading rusher and a big cog to their offense Lippincott is out for the year with an injury. This is a big blow to Nevada.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I am not sure if you are funded at 5 Dimes but a game you might be interested in is Oklahoma State facing Missouri State. The limits are low now but one can pop it if they play their cards right.

Oklahoma State is laying 40 & when I say it is a gift, it is a gift. I historically don't play huge favorites especially in I-A vs I-AA but I know a mismatch when I see one.

 

[bellyputter]

I am not sure if you are funded at 5 Dimes but a game you might be interested in is Oklahoma State facing Missouri State. The limits are low now but one can pop it if they play their cards right.

Oklahoma State is laying 40 & when I say it is a gift, it is a gift. I historically don't play huge favorites especially in I-A vs I-AA but I know a mismatch when I see one.

The weather is supposed to be miserable Saturday night in Stillwater. This will be a game the OSU coaches want to get over quick. They also are going to try and find the 2nd string QB on Saturday. Be careful!

 

[GoSooners]

Any thoughts on NC-Rutgers tonight?

I haven't had a chance to look at tonight's game yet. I do know that Rutgers left a few scoring opportunities on the field last time out against Fresno. And could be a higher scoring game than it looks. But I see the public has already bet the total up to 47 from 44. I'll take a look at it and see if it's worth a play. I don't play many weekday games unless their dogs playing at home on a Thursday night on ESPN. Then we're talking about some money to be had...Good luck

 

[GoSooners]

The weather is supposed to be miserable Saturday night in Stillwater. This will be a game the OSU coaches want to get over quick. They also are going to try and find the 2nd string QB on Saturday. Be careful!

The OSU game has been moved from a night game to a noon kickoff Saturday to avoid the bad weather.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

The weather is supposed to be miserable Saturday night in Stillwater. This will be a game the OSU coaches want to get over quick. They also are going to try and find the 2nd string QB on Saturday. Be careful!

Thank you for your information. Honestly their 2nd stringers could cover this # as Missouri State is not really good at this time. Weather might be the only thing that helps them cover in this spot.

 

[GoSooners]

GS-

i was gonna do the write-up to spare you the time since you do them all the time..!! there's a few things i'll add as well in my thread

but of more importance, i took ML @ 600 last night at cris... it was the best price around (i saw +490 and +520) but that's still not a bad payoff. For someone who never plays moneylines i felt that 6-1 was worth the shot on the outright upset

:toast:

That's not a bad payoff at all for a game that I think will be decided by a TD or less. I'll take a looksy in your thread about your thoughts on the game. I could have written a book on why I like Maryland in this spot. It's a handicappers dream. They don't always work out. But the majority of the time I have more money in my pocket the next day...Good luck:toast:

 

[bellyputter]

The OSU game has been moved from a night game to a noon kickoff Saturday to avoid the bad weather.

I don't ever think I have seen the weather effect this many games in our region. Good Luck

 

[GoSooners]

Like the Maryland pick. I may add to it since I got the early line at 14.5.

Best of luck!

Thanks Ducks..I'm always glad when we're on the same side...Especially coming from a PAC-10 expert..Good luck.