GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 9-13

[ToothedTeddy]

Damn, I'm really stuck on this Iowa-ISU game. I hate it, because I've played this game every year for I don't know how long. But at this point I just don't know. At first I was favoring Iowa. But when I see this line nearing the 2 TD mark, the more I'm inclined to take ISU. This is a big emotional rivalry game that has alot to do with other things like recruiting and state pride. Matching the players up from both sides makes me want to take Iowa. I think they have more talent this year. But I think Gene Chizik is a better coach and will have his team playing sky high...Tough call. I might grow some balls and put a play down on this game before the end of the week.

Always appreciate your write-ups GoSooners. Was with you big on Iowa last week. Posted my reasons in your thread but site was down then erased I believe. Anyway, we were both right on for the most part (my concern was with QB Christiansen but had no idea Stanzi would play like that). Iowa D was what sold me after seeing how KU shut down Fla Int.

I personally wouldn't touch this Iowa-ISU game. On paper, Iowa looks like a much better team year in and year out. But the rivalry brings out the best in the Cyclones, who have won 7 of 10 outright (and have almost always been the underdog). This year Iowa appears much improved from the past few, while Chizik still needs a yr or two before they can start thinking bowl game. No one really knows how good/bad either team is because of who they've played. 14 pts is a TON considering the rivalry. All that said, if you look at Iowa State's stats against a D-II opponent and then Kent St they've barely outgained both teams in total yards. Turnovers and special teams have been why they've won. Iowa won't turn the ball over nor will they get beat on Special Teams.

Rivalry points to taking the points and Iowa State
Everything else points to Iowa

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see a tight game, nor would I be surprised to see Iowa win by 30. Stay away imo.

ps Chizik has a lot to prove before you can say he's a better coach than Ferentz. Good luck with all your plays $$$

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Always appreciate your write-ups GoSooners. Was with you big on Iowa last week. Posted my reasons in your thread but site was down then erased I believe. Anyway, we were both right on for the most part (my concern was with QB Christiansen but had no idea Stanzi would play like that). Iowa D was what sold me after seeing how KU shut down Fla Int.

I personally wouldn't touch this Iowa-ISU game. On paper, Iowa looks like a much better team year in and year out. But the rivalry brings out the best in the Cyclones, who have won 7 of 10 outright (and have almost always been the underdog). This year Iowa appears much improved from the past few, while Chizik still needs a yr or two before they can start thinking bowl game. No one really knows how good/bad either team is because of who they've played. 14 pts is a TON considering the rivalry. All that said, if you look at Iowa State's stats against a D-II opponent and then Kent St they've barely outgained both teams in total yards. Turnovers and special teams have been why they've won. Iowa won't turn the ball over nor will they get beat on Special Teams.

Rivalry points to taking the points and Iowa State
Everything else points to Iowa

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see a tight game, nor would I be surprised to see Iowa win by 30. Stay away imo.

ps Chizik has a lot to prove before you can say he's a better coach than Ferentz. Good luck with all your plays $$$

Just a minor correction to note. Iowa State played a I-AA/FCS opponent in South Dakota. I would still take S. Dakota again as they shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in that game. I lost count of how many times they drove the field to then have a turnover.

I agree with you on the rivalry saying Iowa State while everything else says Iowa. I'd play Iowa State before I play Iowa in this spot though if I were to play the game.

 

[hiphop22]

Friday:

South Florida (-3) over Kansas ***

Saturday:

Maryland (+15) over CAL **** (Best Bet)

Missouri (-26) over Nevada ***

Texas Tech (-36) over SMU **

OU (-20.5) over Washington **

----------------------------
Mr. GoSooners notes that Missouri may be a 2* depending on the weather.

 

[CoolBreeze22]

I can post a weather update on the Mizzou game from outside the stadium 30 minutes prior to kickoff if it helps anyone.

 

[homedawg]

just cause you been doing this a lot longer doesn't necessarily mean you are better. i love how many times i have seen people say something like this. i don't care how long you have been doing this, all that matter is that you are successful and I have been for a long time.

as for the post count I own my own busiesses so I have all the time I want to post away. I have been posting my plays daily so that may have something to do with it?

I love how these people who have been here longer are quick to attack some of the newer people when they share their opinion. the other poster shared the same exact opinion as I, but he wasn't attacked cause he had an older sign up date. all these "vets" need to get over their age and sign up date.

If it came off as an attack it was not meant to. As for "doing it for a long time", my point was not that I was necessarily "better", just that my way had also worked for yrs. Was not denigrating your abilities. Buy, don't buy, it's a personal choice and not worth arguing about. But if you'll look back I was pretty much being told "you don't know WTF you're talking about". I retaliated and I ALWAYS will. BTW I do read & enjoy your WU's, let's let it go at that. Too much arguing here, and I'm just as guilty as anyone. Thin skinned Irishman that I am. BOL on your capping, now & in the future.

we share the same mentality. BOL this weekend:toast:

 

[seriousaddiction]

I am surprised to see you on SOFLA Sooners....Im more of a MAC and BIG EAST guy but Im aware of the depth at LB for Kansas. IMO this weighs huge in Kansas' favor defending and putting a spy on a QB like Grothe. Watching as much Big East ball as I do I know that a HUGE part of Grothe and SOFLA's game is him running in and out of the pocket waiting for plays to develop. Whenever SOFLA plays a team with quick , smart (emphasis on smart) linebackers he's seems to have a lot more trouble getting down field. It's incredible how deep Kansas is at linebacker. IMO they have the best one - two punch in LB and Holt is overshadowed by Rivera and Mortensen so he gets no wheres near the credit that is due to him. Anyways I know there are a huge amount of other reasons to be on SOFLA (Friday, Primetime, ESPN, HOME) not to mention the team speed SOFLA possesses but I think I am leaning Kansas in this one. I think Reesing can attack the two young , inexperienced corners for SOFLA and keep this game close. Dont get me wrong these kids are gonna be incredible down the road but they have a lot to prove and tonight is their first major test. I see this game being won by the team who has the ball last and that's why I personally will be taking the points.


Love all of your analysis and you know your shit like no other in the college football forum. BOL with all your plays this weekend

 

[MistaFlava]

love your stuff Sooners, best of luck this season

 

[6figure]

Any thoughts on baylor tonight? Thanks man!

 

[GoSooners]

Since none of us know for sure how long the RX is going to be up today I'm going to go ahead and copy my plays from another site without the writeups so they'll officially be in here..I took the Texas Tech play off the board because they've had 10 inches of rain yesterday in Lubbock with electricity out and numerous distractions that can affect team preparations and possibly this spread. I'll have writeups or explanations to why I like each of these games time permitting and the RX staying up and running.

OU (-20.5) over Washington **
Mizzou (-26) over Nevada ** (knocked down a star because of possible severe weather)
North Texas (+42.5) over LSU ** (bought the half point)
South Florida (-3) over Kansas ***
Akron (+7) over Ball St. ** (knocking this one down a star because of injuries two both of Akron's starting DT's)
Maryland (+15) over CAL **** (Best Bet)
Tulane (+13) over East Carolina ***
Iowa State (+14) over Iowa **
Buffalo (-6) over Temple **
Fresno St. (+2) over Wisconsin **


For totals right now I just have leans to Akron-Ball St. (OVER 59) Purdue-Oregon (UNDER 61) Notre Dame-Michigan (UNDER 37)

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners, love the USF and Okie picks.....i was wondering what your thoughts are on the Cal at Maryland game... i was thinkin that Cals offense is gonna be too much for a team that lost to Mid TennST and played a low scoring one score win over Del..... im with you on GTech all the way ....liking Stanford as well

great write ups ...first time posting

I think the general consensus around the country is that CAL is going to score alot of points here becauase they did last week. But Maryland hasn't allowed another team to score more than 35 points on their home field in over 5 years! Maryland won't have to score many points to cover this spread.

 

[GoSooners]

I can post a weather update on the Mizzou game from outside the stadium 30 minutes prior to kickoff if it helps anyone.

Coolbreeze...I always appreciate your help...Thanks!

 

[ThePoet]

Cal could give Maryland a thrashing unlike any they have seen in awhile in College Park. I respect your opinion but this game should not be anyone's best bet. Maryland simply is not good this year. Cal traveling cross country has no effect whatsoever on the outcome. These kids are 20, not 50. Cal has all the momentum. Maryland is down. If you play for Maryland, what is your mindset right now?? No coaching can fix an attitude of thinking how they just lost to shitsville state, barely beat the blue hens, and now get Cal on national tv who just put up 100 on a team similar to ours. I'm exaggerating of course but I think you get it. Don't underestimate how football and all sports for that matter is a game of emotion and I'd rather be Cal's psychologist right now than Marylands.

That being said, I did call you out last year when you liked OU -50 over N Texas and you won so what do I know, right? Good luck with all of your plays.

 

[GoSooners]

I am surprised to see you on SOFLA Sooners....Im more of a MAC and BIG EAST guy but Im aware of the depth at LB for Kansas. IMO this weighs huge in Kansas' favor defending and putting a spy on a QB like Grothe. Watching as much Big East ball as I do I know that a HUGE part of Grothe and SOFLA's game is him running in and out of the pocket waiting for plays to develop. Whenever SOFLA plays a team with quick , smart (emphasis on smart) linebackers he's seems to have a lot more trouble getting down field. It's incredible how deep Kansas is at linebacker. IMO they have the best one - two punch in LB and Holt is overshadowed by Rivera and Mortensen so he gets no wheres near the credit that is due to him. Anyways I know there are a huge amount of other reasons to be on SOFLA (Friday, Primetime, ESPN, HOME) not to mention the team speed SOFLA possesses but I think I am leaning Kansas in this one. I think Reesing can attack the two young , inexperienced corners for SOFLA and keep this game close. Dont get me wrong these kids are gonna be incredible down the road but they have a lot to prove and tonight is their first major test. I see this game being won by the team who has the ball last and that's why I personally will be taking the points.


Love all of your analysis and you know your shit like no other in the college football forum. BOL with all your plays this weekend

I can't blame anybody at all for taking the Kansas side. They've covered 16 of their last 19 games. And are very well coached team with a great QB. Personally, I think these teams are very close to evenely matched with the homefield advantage putting USF over the top. And let's not undersestimate the homefield advantage in a big night game played in the humidity of South Florida. I think the one thing to look out for in this game is the patience of Grothe. If he can keep his cool against this Kansas defense and not make silly mistakes, then USF should win this game. I watched Kansas closely last season, and how they won their games. They win most every game because they play very clean fundamental football and wait for the other team to make mistakes. That's why all of their games were so close on the road. They nickel and dime your defense all the way down the field without making mistakes. It can make a DC pull his hair out. But you just have to be patient with this team and play the same type of game they do. It should be a great game tonight.

 

[SureGuy]

Cal could give Maryland a thrashing unlike any they have seen in awhile in College Park. I respect your opinion but this game should not be anyone's best bet. Maryland simply is not good this year. Cal traveling cross country has no effect whatsoever on the outcome. These kids are 20, not 50. Cal has all the momentum. Maryland is down. If you play for Maryland, what is your mindset right now?? No coaching can fix an attitude of thinking how they just lost to shitsville state, barely beat the blue hens, and now get Cal on national tv who just put up 100 on a team similar to ours. I'm exaggerating of course but I think you get it. Don't underestimate how football and all sports for that matter is a game of emotion and I'd rather be Cal's psychologist right now than Marylands.

That being said, I did call you out last year when you liked OU -50 over N Texas and you won so what do I know, right? Good luck with all of your plays.

50 year old kids only ones who are effected by cross country trips :lol:

 

[GoSooners]

Any thoughts on baylor tonight? Thanks man!

I'm not playing it. We've got two teams who are cellar dwellars in their respective conferences with two first year coaches and offensive systems playing each other in nasty weather conditions. Plus I've never been comfortable taking Baylor as a favorite over any BCS conference team. If I had a gun to my head I would say Baylor...But who knows?

 

[GoSooners]

Just a few brief explanations on some of my plays:

Akron (+7) The combination of a big improvement of QB Jacqueman passing numbers over last season combined with RB Kennedy now being a 100% from last year's ACL injury is giving this team a potent offense. Akron the "running dog". This is enough in my opinion to cover this spread. Something else to note: Akron has not failed to cover a spread of 4 points or more at home since 2004! Something else that I found interesting from last season's stats on the MAC is no team who was a dog of 4 points or more at home failed to cover the spread. The biggest home dog all of last season was just 8 points. And the dog covered that spread. This is a very evenly matched conference from top to bottom.

Buffalo (-6) Buffalo is the real deal. They have a great coach that won't be coaching MAC football for long. Great offense. Solid defense. And they'll be facing a Temple team coming off a tough game with a very physical UCONN team, and then hitting the road. Temple is improved. But they haven't proved to be a good road team. Coaching & QB advantage to Buffalo.

North Texas (+42.5) Baton Rouge having a ton of bad weather, eletricity out on campus and flooding. With more to come. Missed practice time by the players this week. Game being played most likely in nasty weather conditions on a greass field. I can't believe LSU will be nearly as sharp as they should for this game, and will go through the motions. Plus they have Auburn on board the next week. And that could be LSU's biggest game of the season.


Tulane (+13) Great technical spot for Tulane. An ECU team coming off two big wins as a dog and then going on the road for the first time as double digit favorites. Tulane played their first game last week. And played Bama so close that they actually could have won the game if it hadn't been for a coulple breaks go Bama's way. A teams biggest improvement sometimes comes between the first and second games. So Tulane should be extra sharp for this first conference game. Bob Toledo is a very underrated coach. He'll have his Green Wave ready.

Iowa State (+14) I wasn't going to play this game. But when the line got up to 14 last night I pulled the trigger. I'm not sure Iowa is good enough yet on offense to win this thing by three scores over a team who lives for this game. Chizik is a good defensive minded coach. And his defense has bent but not broke so far this season. The main thing is they've caused 10 turnovers which basically have been the difference of the Clones beating South Dakota in their first game. And gave ISU many short fields in their second. Who's to say they can't disrupt Iowa's offense a little here. Iowa the more talented team. And although ISU lost some of their skill players, they actually have more starters returning this season than Iowa. Have these two teams changed that much? Both teams will probably use the rotating QB system. Something I've never liked. It leads me to think this could be a sloppy game since these are the first BCS teams that each team has faced. Unlike FIU last week, I expect Iowa State to hit back this week. Slight coaching edge to Chizik in my opinion.

Fresno State (+2) This or the Kansas-USF game tonight could be the best game of the week. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Fresno has a good enough defensive line to at least slow down the Wisky run game. Marshall played Wisky pretty tough last week until they started tiring in the second half. Wisky also went over the top with the pass in that game that killed Marshall. Fresno has a very good secondary. And I don't think they're going to let Wisky get away with it this time. Wisky's defense has historically not played as well on the road. Wisky is also having to travel west to play a 7:30 pm PST game. By the time they get into the 4th quarter it will be 1 am Wisky time. If this is a tight game, which I think it will be, it could have an affect on the Wisky players in crunch time. Wisky's young QB going on the road for the first time. Fresno has been in their comfort zone for the last two weeks after travelling across country and defeating Rutgers. Coaching and QB advantage in my opinion go to Fresno.

 

[MattMillen+]

BOL Sooners.

 

[Preussen]

I took the Texas Tech play off the board Mizzou (-26) over Nevada ** (knocked down a star because of possible severe weather)
Akron (+7) over Ball St. ** (knocking this one down a star because of injuries two both of Akron's starting DT's)

What exactly does this mean? Do you (partly) buy back your bets and eat the juice? Or do you stick with your bets but advise potential tailers to bet differently than you did if they haven't bet already?

 

[GoSooners]

What exactly does this mean? Do you (partly) buy back your bets and eat the juice? Or do you stick with your bets but advise potential tailers to bet differently than you did if they haven't bet already?

I bought back my bet on Texas Tech. I never advise anybody to do one thing or the other. I just stated what I did because the conditions changed. On the Missouri and Akron games I originally played each of those as 3 star games and that won't change for me on my bet. But I'm telling everybody that these are now weaker plays because the conditions have changed.

 

[HuskerFan1]

you said it best "buffalo is the real deal"...turner gill is the real deal....he has this team believing they can win...i was on them in week1 vs utep and last week vs pitt and they held their own very well vs' a preseason top25 team....temple off another heartbreaking loss last week vs uconn....

buffalo is my best bet of the weekend....

gl i enjoy reading your writeups every week