I've Been Doing This Longer Than You Or Lang Have
alive. If you go back and check how many gms you lost or tied, just in the LY because of the 1/2 you may change your mind. If not I really don't give a shit. Do I buy in ALL cases of course not, but the small $$ it costs is made up winning 1 gm. Use common sense. BTW how the hell do you get almost 4000 posts in a yr or less? Don't you have a job? Let's all win some $$, thanks GS for the WU's as usual.
I've been discussing Ohio State this morning with another capper. And it could be a team I add to my list. I think the status of Beanie Wells could go a long ways in my decision. One thing that favors OSU here is the inexperience of the USC offensive line that has yet to be tested. And the Buckeyes will definitely do that if they are able to control the line of scrimmage.. But I think the success of OSU's running game will depend on if Boeckman is able to hit enough passes to loosen up the USC defense to make way for the OSU run game.. That's a lot of if's. But I may very well end up adding OSU to the list. Especially if this line keeps going up. If you had told me this summer that OSU would be getting over 10 points in this game I would have jumped all over it. There just isn't as much difference as people think between the major power teams from each conference.
By the way I also like Ga Tech and Maryland. I think Maryland is especially getting alot of value. And I'll discuss why later on.
Hey GS,
What are your thoughts on Mizzou this week -26 vs. Nevada?
They are that team with a perfect storm of good defense, good special teams, and maybe the best offense in the country. This will be a great team to bet on this year and I'm trying to figure out if now is the best time to start riding them.
Could be a great 1st half bet.
Also, keep an eye out for the over/ under in the Illini/ Ragin Cajun game this week. I have not seen it yet but the Illini defense has suffered a ton of injuries and that running QB for ULL will score more than once if you get my drift. EIU was opening up big running lanes last week against the Illini which really scares me. Juice and Co. should score over 50 because Zook knows our offense is all we have so far this year. Not to mention Southern Miss put up over 50 on the ULL in the first game of the year. ULL could go on the running dog list getting 25 points. Their QB rushed for 1400 yds last year and their sr RB has gotten over 1000 yds the last two years!
What are your thoughts on Mizzou this week -26 vs. Nevada?
They are that team with a perfect storm of good defense, good special teams, and maybe the best offense in the country. This will be a great team to bet on this year and I'm trying to figure out if now is the best time to start riding them.
Could be a great 1st half bet.
Also, keep an eye out for the over/ under in the Illini/ Ragin Cajun game this week. I have not seen it yet but the Illini defense has suffered a ton of injuries and that running QB for ULL will score more than once if you get my drift. EIU was opening up big running lanes last week against the Illini which really scares me. Juice and Co. should score over 50 because Zook knows our offense is all we have so far this year. Not to mention Southern Miss put up over 50 on the ULL in the first game of the year. ULL could go on the running dog list getting 25 points. Their QB rushed for 1400 yds last year and their sr RB has gotten over 1000 yds the last two years!
Tootight...I lean to Mizzou, although this is alot of points. At first glance I thought Nevada might be the running dog in this spot. But they aren't. Mizzou has actually outrushed them against division 1 opponents so far, and given up less yards than Nevada on rushing defense. So yes, Mizzou would definitely have to be the lean if I play it. I haven't looked at the illinois game yet. But I'll take a look at it. I think I had ULL as a possible running dog this week, but I didn't include it on my list. I'll take a looksy today.
i might include a write-up on my maryland game. the only problem is i could write a page and a half on that game... if i were to write a thesis on handicapping this game would be the center of it..!!
we might even be lucky enough to get 17 on this one, which in that case i will add on to my play (that's the only reason why i haven't posted the play yet as i could be adding on)
:toast:
btw-i already took oh st at matchbook at +10 +112 but it's more of an entertainment play since that is the kind of game you just watch and enjoy but i couldn't pass up the value
Sports...Kansas starting cb Kendrick Harper is also out. And even worse Kansas starting WR Dexton Fields is out. The only cb I'm seeing from South Florida who is injured is Tyson Butler. But he's only rated as questionable because he didn't practice yesterday. I would say at this point that Kansas losses are worse than South Florida's.
just cause you been doing this a lot longer doesn't necessarily mean you are better. i love how many times i have seen people say something like this. i don't care how long you have been doing this, all that matter is that you are successful and I have been for a long time.
as for the post count I own my own busiesses so I have all the time I want to post away. I have been posting my plays daily so that may have something to do with it?
I love how these people who have been here longer are quick to attack some of the newer people when they share their opinion. the other poster shared the same exact opinion as I, but he wasn't attacked cause he had an older sign up date. all these "vets" need to get over their age and sign up date.
GL
Here are the leans I have so far in the Big 12...Keep in mind these are just leans. Not plays:
Baylor (+1) over WSU
Missouri (-26.5) over Nevada
Oklahoma (-20.5) over Washington
Iowa (-13.5) over Iowa State
Nebraska-NMST ( Possible OVER play if I get a good number)
Texas (-23.5) over Arkansas (I think Texas has one hell of a good team this year..But the weather in the Austin area from Hurricane Ike and the possible 6 to 9 inches of rain (natural grass field) is more than likely going to keep me off of this game, if they even play it)
Baylor (+1) over WSU
Missouri (-26.5) over Nevada
Oklahoma (-20.5) over Washington
Iowa (-13.5) over Iowa State
Nebraska-NMST ( Possible OVER play if I get a good number)
Texas (-23.5) over Arkansas (I think Texas has one hell of a good team this year..But the weather in the Austin area from Hurricane Ike and the possible 6 to 9 inches of rain (natural grass field) is more than likely going to keep me off of this game, if they even play it)
Oklahoma at Washington...This is OU's first trip ever into the state of Washington to play a football game...Hopefully it will be a memorable one. These are the kinds of games I usually don't play. But I've seen Washington twice this year. And I can clearly see their weaknesses. And they are on both sides of the ball. Against Oregon they got outyardaged 500 yards to 240. And against BYU 475 to 330. And this was against Oregon with a backup QB and a MWC team. I guarantee you OU has as good an offense as Oregon. And a better QB. And they have a better defense than BYU, who was returning only 3 starters on that side of the ball... Jake Locker is a bigtime talent, and he's got some good receivers. But their young and still learning. And they aren't as good as the talented WR Gilyard OU faced last week from from Cincy. He gave OU all kinds of problems on defense and special teams. But after he burned the Sooners a couple times with a long kickoff return for a TD and a TD pass reception, OU made adjustemnts and pretty much kept him in check the rest of the game. I don't believe Washington has anybody this good that OU can't deal with in this game. I also KNOW that both of OU's lines are better than Washington's. OU faced a much better defense last week with Cincy. That was a well coached team that can hit you back. I think it was just what OU needed to start the season. Cincy's defense was very good. Mainly because they were senior dominated (9 seniors 2 juniors). The reason I compare these two teams is because I don't believe Washington is as good on either side of the ball than Cincy. OU's no-huddle offense eventually wore Cincy down. And they're going to do the same thing here. OU has so many weapons it isn't even funny. Last week their leading WR was Ryan Broyles (7 catches 141 and a TD). He isn't even OU's best WR. Plus when the long pass isn't working they have a bigtime weapon with TE Jermain Grisham (a difference maker against Cincy). And when the pass isn't working they have a great run game behind DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown. This is a very expereinced team going up against a very inexperienced team early in the season. I also wonder what the mindset for Washington is coming into this game after getting hit by that penalty flag endzone celebration that could have cost them the game. It can be very hard to come back off of games like that where emotionally they left everything out on the field. OU is riding high coming off a big win over a tough well coached hard nosed team. And I don't think it's like last year where OU had their road problems. OU now has a talented and confident QB Bradford with a year under his belt. And is a true team leader this year. As opposed to the quiet freshman of last season. This makes a big difference in the huddle when facing obstacles (crowd noise, momentum, PAC-10 officials!) on the road. You want a confident team that KNOWS it can get the job done. And even though there might be concern about OU going on the road, under Stoops they are actually very good in covering road openers (6-2-1). And this is the best offense that Stoops has ever had. Which is why I'm playing this. I don't give double digits on the road unless I have an experienced offensive line, talented QB and decent defense and coaching. OU falls into all four categories. This is alot of points and it could fall pretty close to the line. But I have confidence that OU can get the job done, and make up for their last trip to the west coast where they lost the replay game with Oregon...No replay required here...Taking OU (-20.5) over Washington **
You may want to use common sense yourself. Do you really think the books would allow you to buy half-points if it were profitable for the bettors?
At non-key numbers a half-point usually costs another 10 points of juice, meaning this buying must save you at least once in ten games. Do you really think a game comes down to the hook at least 10% of the time? If yes, you may want to check up your stats.
Of course, at key numbers like 3 or 7 the hook may become more important, but in such situations the juice you have to pay usually increases significantly. If you have a book that lets you buy on/off 3 or 7 for -120 then by all means use it, but in almost every other case buying points is a -EV play.
Nevada at Missouri....Nevada is hitting the road for the first time this season. And this is where this team has traditionally had their problems with the BCS big boys. And they've run into a monster with Missouri. I wouldn't hold too much weight with what they did at home last week in a 35-19 loss vs Texas Tech. TT as as a rule play terrible on the road early in the season against these types of ooc opponents. Plus TT is having a little trouble getting over petty mistakes like penalties. Missouri is having no such problem. I saw a replay of their game with SE Mo. St. the other day. And it was a nice little scrimmage where Chase Daniel left very early in the game after completeing a pultry 16-17 passes. Missouri has already had a mild scare from Illinois. But that can be expected in a first game of the season on a neutral field against a BCS bowl team. The Tigers are now home free for a while and humming right along. And I guarantee you when most of these ooc teams like this come to Columbia it's going to be murderers row. Mizzou is just about like Tech with these kinds of games. They need the no mercy rule because they simply don't let up. With their "Pistol" offense I thought Nevada might be the running dog here. But no so. Mizzou has actually outrushed this team (226-224) this year, and despite the high scoring game with Illinois has allowed less yards rushing (81) than Nevada (124). This number is a big deal to me because of Texas Tech's ability to run on this team. And TT as we all know isn't a strong run team. Fellas...In my opinion Mizzou is one of the top 5 teams in the country. And they've done nothing to change my mind. They are a very similar team to Florida with their offensive schemes (Utah offense). And they have just as many weapons. Look for their defense to tightened up as the season moves along. But I guarantee you they are better than they showed against Illinois.. This is one team I will think twice before I bet against on their home turf. And Chase Daniel will be looking to put up some Heisman Trophy numbers this season. And it starts against teams like this. There is rain expected all over the midwest this weekend. But this game is being played on aritifcal turf, and Mizzou probably won't miss a beat. I think they could run the ball all day and beat this team by the number. And no look ahead game for Mizzou.. Taking Missouri (-26) over Nevada ***
California at Maryland....Cal travels to Maryland after two big wins. And Maryland comes limping back home after losing to a Sunbelt team. So what's the attraction? Well nothing. It never is with Maryland. If you look back in their recent history, Maryland has never looked good early in the year against the cupcakes. They barely get by the Florida Internationals and William & Mary's every season it seems. But Maryland does one thing steady most every year. They get to a bowl game. And they usually win those games ugly just like they do their regular season games. This team is never going to bowl you over with their offense. They like to run the ball and play defense. Which is why I'm attracted to this team. I LOVE running dogs. Especially ones who are NOT moving up in conference class and getting double digits at home. And this team definitely qualifies. RB Da Rel Scott has run for over 300 yards already on only 37 carries. And despite their losses Maryland still plays good defense. Just don't bet on this team when they are made double digit favorites. Anywhere or anytime! But when they are made the dogs, you better take a long look.
As for Cal, I like the way this team is playing. They are definitely heading the right direction and attracting national attention. But keep in mind this is a team that is returning only 12 starters off a 7-6 team. They are a team with inexperienced skill players and a decent but not great defense, travelling across the country and laying over 2 TD's to a team who played in a bowl game last year and is returning 15 starters. This is the very same Maryland team that took one of the best teams in the PAC-10 last year Oregon State down to the wire in their bowl game. And I guarantee you OSU had a better defense than this Cal team. Maryland's loss was a surprise last week. But their offensive coordinator said in an interview that they blew 8 scoring opportunities in that game. So if they were to play MTSU again, Maryland would probably win the game in their usual ugly fashion. One thing I can tell you now, Maryland HC Friedgen is no dummy. He is one good coach. And I guarantee he'll play Cal much different than CAL's first two opponents. I expect him to stack the box and make CAL's very young receivers to make the plays. But keep in mind that Cal hasn't really had to get their WR's involved in their games because they've been so successful running the ball. I'm betting this is going to have to change this weekend. Cal has played one mediocre defense in Michigan St. And they've played one of the worst teams in division 1 WSU last week. Maryland will be a horse of a different color and present a whole other set of problems for this Cal offense. I guarantee it. Maryland has won me alot of money over the years when they are made the dogs. And they are by far the most physical team on defense that Cal has faced. I'm going out on a limb here and betting big money that Cal maybe escapes out of College Park after an ugly game. I'm puttin in this play now because the damned line keeps creeping down. I should have got it at 16.5...But I'll take it at 15. Taking Maryland (+15) over CAL **** (Best Bet)
As for Cal, I like the way this team is playing. They are definitely heading the right direction and attracting national attention. But keep in mind this is a team that is returning only 12 starters off a 7-6 team. They are a team with inexperienced skill players and a decent but not great defense, travelling across the country and laying over 2 TD's to a team who played in a bowl game last year and is returning 15 starters. This is the very same Maryland team that took one of the best teams in the PAC-10 last year Oregon State down to the wire in their bowl game. And I guarantee you OSU had a better defense than this Cal team. Maryland's loss was a surprise last week. But their offensive coordinator said in an interview that they blew 8 scoring opportunities in that game. So if they were to play MTSU again, Maryland would probably win the game in their usual ugly fashion. One thing I can tell you now, Maryland HC Friedgen is no dummy. He is one good coach. And I guarantee he'll play Cal much different than CAL's first two opponents. I expect him to stack the box and make CAL's very young receivers to make the plays. But keep in mind that Cal hasn't really had to get their WR's involved in their games because they've been so successful running the ball. I'm betting this is going to have to change this weekend. Cal has played one mediocre defense in Michigan St. And they've played one of the worst teams in division 1 WSU last week. Maryland will be a horse of a different color and present a whole other set of problems for this Cal offense. I guarantee it. Maryland has won me alot of money over the years when they are made the dogs. And they are by far the most physical team on defense that Cal has faced. I'm going out on a limb here and betting big money that Cal maybe escapes out of College Park after an ugly game. I'm puttin in this play now because the damned line keeps creeping down. I should have got it at 16.5...But I'll take it at 15. Taking Maryland (+15) over CAL **** (Best Bet)
