GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week for 10-4

[echamp76]

I can kick myself for not taking FSU over Miami....FSU was the running dog with the better defense..Which is usually money in college football. Iowa today was the running dog with the better defense..So is Temple, who last time I looked had the lead and is 7 point dogs..UCONN is also the running dog with the better defense. I'll probably put one unit on UCONN tonight..I might decide to make it a 2 unit play if the line keeps going up...Goodl luck.

GS, I can't blame you for not taking FSU, they can't hang on to the ball against any team with a defense, you know that. Your running dog theory is really nice but you know that their are some variables that you have to look at i.e. turnover margin and penalties to really make it work.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, I can't blame you for not taking FSU, they can't hang on to the ball against any team with a defense, you know that. Your running dog theory is really nice but you know that their are some variables that you have to look at i.e. turnover margin and penalties to really make it work.

I still probably should have played it small because Miami is a young team that is just as prone to turnovers..And the coaching advantage was with Bowden. The only thing that bothered me about the game was many of FSU's scores last week against Colorado were junk points from turnovers or special teams. So I wasn't sure how good their offense was going to be coming into this game. There were some running dogs with the better defense that I didn't play today..Stanford was one of thos teams..But too many angles were going against them..The traveling part, along with Notre Dame on the improve. And have played 3 Big 10 teams in a row..So they were a little more battle hardened. Wisconsin is also the running dogs..But they don't have the better defense. So I'm leaving that one alone..eschamp...Your right. You have to pick and choose with these teams..It's not easy. And it's not perfect by any means....But if it can hit 60% and keep in the green I'll be a happy camper.

 

[fadethepublic1]

There are no true running dogs in the Big 12 this week..The only teams who are borderline running dogs are Iowa State, Nebraska and Baylor. The running dogs system isn't as simple as it looks. It involves having to calculate yards per carry for one team against the other. But it also involves how strong your opposition has been..In other words your defense can look like world beaters against the rush if all that you have played to that point is passing teams. And on the other side of that coin, if you've been playing some outstanding rushing teams, your defense may not look as good statistically as it really is..A friend of mine does all of the math calculations for this system and then gives me his list of the best dogs for that week. And also the possible running dogs for the week. You can calculate all of these games if you have a spreadsheet..I know several on here that have their own spreadsheet that they do a similar system from..If you don't want to go through all of that, I believe Fox Sheets on the internet has most all of those numbers already figured for you.

I remember last year someone posted some calcs for the bowl season. How my calcs go looks a lil somethin like this...

team a off road yards per carry per game (3.4ypc) - opp. def avg/game (per carry) (3.1) = diff.
team a opp offense avg/carry/game (4.2)- defense avg carry/game (4.7) = diff (subtract this number from above number)

team b: same as above
team b: same as above (line 2)

thus whoever comes out w/the positive number at the end or better rushing avg has the rushing advantage, especially if they are a dog. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[GoSooners]

I remember last year someone posted some calcs for the bowl season. How my calcs go looks a lil somethin like this...

team a off road yards per carry per game (3.4ypc) - opp. def avg/game (per carry) (3.1) = diff.
team a opp offense avg/carry/game (4.2)- defense avg carry/game (4.7) = diff (subtract this number from above number)

team b: same as above
team b: same as above (line 2)

thus whoever comes out w/the positive number at the end or better rushing avg has the rushing advantage, especially if they are a dog. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

With the running dogs system, we don't count the road as any diffferent as home rushing yards..

 

[DeezNuts]

any thoughts on playing Tex/CU over now that the total has dropped all the way to 52?

 

[GoSooners]

any thoughts on playing Tex/CU over now that the total has dropped all the way to 52?

Deez...The total is just too low now..We're talking about almost a TD difference between the opening line and 52. So it's lost it's value for an under play. I wouldn't mess with the total unless you think it might go over..I played a one unit play on Colorado +12..If the line goes up to 13 I might possibly make it a 2 star play and put it in my thread..But right now I don't have a strong enough opinion of it to list it...Good luck

 

[MakeitRainon'em]

Hey Sooners...would you still take Tulsa at -16.5?

 

[DeezNuts]

Deez...The total is just too low now..We're talking about almost a TD difference between the opening line and 52. So it's lost it's value for an under play. I wouldn't mess with the total unless you think it might go over..I played a one unit play on Colorado +12..If the line goes up to 13 I might possibly make it a 2 star play and put it in my thread..But right now I don't have a strong enough opinion of it to list it...Good luck

Right, I'm on the under at 57 and was wondering since it has gotten so low if you thought there was value in taking the over and possibly hitting both plays.

 

[GoSooners]

Hey Sooners...would you still take Tulsa at -16.5?

Yes...But I think I would knock it down a star to a 3 star play.

 

[GoSooners]

Right, I'm on the under at 57 and was wondering since it has gotten so low if you thought there was value in taking the over and possibly hitting both plays.

I hate trying to middle a totals play. But if there was ever any one to play it would be this one. If I had originally made it a bigger play, I might have tried to middle it..But it was only a 2 star play for me..So I'm going to let it ride...Good luck

 

[fadethepublic1]

With the running dogs system, we don't count the road as any diffferent as home rushing yards..

I'm sorry, I meant team b would be home rushing yds/carry vs opp def avg. Is that how it should be???

 

[DeezNuts]

thanks for the response and thanks for all your hard work here. Things are looking good so far, let's hope that continues with the rest of the plays.

 

[echamp76]

I can kick myself for not taking FSU over Miami....FSU was the running dog with the better defense..Which is usually money in college football. Iowa today was the running dog with the better defense..So is Temple, who last time I looked had the lead and is 7 point dogs..UCONN is also the running dog with the better defense. I'll probably put one unit on UCONN tonight..I might decide to make it a 2 unit play if the line keeps going up...Goodl luck.

Not so fast my friend!

 

[GoSooners]

I'm playing one more game tonight.

UCLA (-16) over Washington State **

 

[GoSooners]

OSU (-24) over Texas A&M **
Texas-Colorado (UNDER 57) **
Texas Tech-K-State (OVER 66) ** (Win)
Baylor (+27) over OU *** (Loss)
Temple (+7) over Miami, Ohio ** (Win)
Iowa (+7.5) over Michigan State *** (Win)
Tulsa (-15.5) over Rice **** (Best Bet)
Illinois (+3) over Michigan ** (Win)
Auburn (-3) over Vandy *** (Loss)
UCLA (-16) over Washington State ** (Added Play)

 

[GoSooners]

OSU (-24) over Texas A&M ** (Win)
Texas-Colorado (UNDER 57) ** (Win)
Texas Tech-K-State (OVER 66) ** (Win)
Baylor (+27) over OU *** (Loss)
Temple (+7) over Miami, Ohio ** (Win)
Iowa (+7.5) over Michigan State *** (Win)
Tulsa (-15.5) over Rice **** (Best Bet)
Illinois (+3) over Michigan ** (Win)
Auburn (-3) over Vandy *** (Loss)
UCLA (-16) over Washington State ** (Added Play)


8 games down and 2 to go..I lost some of my bigger plays today...But we're going to come out ahead no matter what happens the rest of the way...C'mon Tulsa, get that Bet Bet play for us and make it a great day..:toast:

 

[sportsmonitor]

Nice Job Sooners

:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:money8:

 

[sportsmonitor]

Tulsa getting ready to score again 35-21

ope:

 

[Pincer]

Hey GoSooners, I had Tulsa at (-16.5) so I'm hoping they keep piling points on Rice!

Btw, the Sooners look nasty. It's going to be hard to stop them.

 

[TeflonGS]

Much Mahalo

Thank you again GS for your hard work! See you in the cashier line!
Living it up tonight:anichamp4