Good evening GS. I love your plays so far this week. I owe you an apology for my smart-ass behavior last week in regards to the Mizzou-Texas game, but at least it's over and we can move on. In regards to the Tech/ Kansas game; if you look at Tech's recent history, they've gone into this part of their schedule undefeated or almost undefeated in each and every season under Leach. From this part on they absolutely faulter, except for a lucky win here or there. I'm not sure why that is (bad competition at the beginning maybe), but it always happens. It seems like every year when it's Texas' turn to play them, they come into the game ranked in the top 15, and two weeks later (post Texas and whomever else), they're out of the top 25. I think Tech will be exposed mightily this weekend by a so-so Kansas team, who will be really ready to play them. As for the Texas game, I'm worried. I don't see how this team can get up AGAIN for such a big game after the Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl and an ESPN/ GameDay atmosphere last weekend. It'll seem like this game is nothing with all the hoopla gone, and I just hope they realize what's at stake. They're saying all the right things, but obviously we won't know until the cannon sounds. GL GS this week.
Go Sooners,
Really appreciate your write ups and analysis. Concerned that Mizzu might be emotionally flat after playing Texas and Okie State in prime time games. Nebraska defense had a strong game last week. Just not sure that I can trust the Husker D laying double digits and they also have OU on deck. Good Luck.
Really appreciate your write ups and analysis. Concerned that Mizzu might be emotionally flat after playing Texas and Okie State in prime time games. Nebraska defense had a strong game last week. Just not sure that I can trust the Husker D laying double digits and they also have OU on deck. Good Luck.
Both of these are just small plays for me..I like the Huskers chances to cover a little more than Mizzou because of Baylor's weak defense on the road. True the Huskers have OU on deck..But this team is trying to get to 6 wins and a bowl..They aren't good enough to overlook anybody..And they know if they don't win against Baylor, their chances of going to a bowl go way down..Don't forget also that the Huskers last game at home was a 52-17 loss to Mizzou..Pelini spent 2 weeks apologizing to the Husker fans for that stinker..I look for an inspired effort out of Nebraska here..As for Mizzou, this one could fall pretty close to the number..CU's defense will keep them in it for awhile..But they'll have to score points to cover..So far CU has looked bad on offense in scoring just 2 TD's in their each of their last 3 games..And two of those games were played at home..
TT 7-0 start has come against weak schedule incl 2 FCS teams, overrated..they're next 4 are KAN,TEX,OK ST.,OKLA, they'll think Jayhawks will be the easiest of the 4
preseason indication was at -9.5, now KU -3.5..
KU -1 is a good value, Going w/ the Jayhawks -1 here
Good Luck everyone :toast:
Virginia at Georgia Tech...This has been a tale of two seasons for Virginia. After getting blown out by USC, Duke and UCONN, they've won their last 3 games...But let's take a closer look at their wins..All of the games they won were (1) played at home and (2) bad situational spots for the opposing teams. Maryland was coming off a big win at Clemson. And then playing in their second straight road game.. East Carolina was a non-BCS team going on the road after coming off a very disappointing loss as double digit favorites over Houston. And North Carolina was coming off a big close emotional win over Notre Dame. And had just lost their best offensive player to injury. Virginia's wins all came in good spots against teams in bad spots....On the other side Ga Tech scored a huge win last week under the most adverse conditions, against a team who had just lost their coach, and playing in a very hostile fired up enviornment of Clemson. This team showed me alot in beating Clemson..They lost their lead late in the game, and then came back in the closing minutes to win it. This tells me something about the backbone of this team and coach Johnson..One of the best coaches in the America..I also like the fact that this GT team can win as favorites..They were 7 point favorites earlier this season against Miss St. and 13 point faves against Duke, and easily covered both games..Defense is the name of the game..And GT plays some of the best in the ACC. And then there's that option offense that is so hard to defense..Virginia hasn't seen anything like it this year..What I see is a young team going on the road against the best defense that they've seen this year other than USC. And trying to defend an offense that is averaging 32 ppg against division 1 competetion at home..Virginia has almost identical numbers on offense and defense (actually a little worse) as the Duke team that lost 27-0 to GT at home two weeks ago. And that Duke team had much more overall experience than the Cavs. I can see a similar score here..I also like the fact that the line hasn't moved off of the original number..And this has been the case in almost all of my Best Bets this year. Which makes me feel even better about this play. It's the less obvious games that always look the best to me.. Taking Ga Tech (-12) over Virginia **** (Best Bet)
Yes, I like the over 59...Iowa State can't tackle, and Chizik is taking desperate steps to try and find the right formula on defense..For example he's starting two true freshman in the defenisve backfield this week. And Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson is starting to play some very good football both passing and running. The Aggies don't have much of a defense either..And it usually gets worse on the road..So I can easily see a game where both teams score in the 30's or higher....Good luck
Paul Johnson teams have been excellent bets as underdogs or small favorites for a few years. It seems he's instilled a bit of the Navy "don't ever stop trying, no matter the circumstances" attitude at Georgia Tech.
I'm going to try and talk myself into taking GaTech with this line. I wish to goodness it would come down to -10, but I don't see that happening at all. It's always harder for me to take an option team giving two touchdowns simply because they can burn so much clock on their drives. I'd be curious to know how many offensive drives Georgia Tech has during a game compared to the D-I average.
The thing is, this team can score..Virginia's defense isn't any better than Miss State's or Duke's. Virginia isn't a very good team on offense. They scored only 3 points on North Carolina until the last couple minutes of that game where they tied it with a TD and then won it with a FG in overtime. These ACC teams are having alot of trouble defending GT's option attack..They simply never see this offense..And they can't duplicate it very well in practice. Things will get a little harder for GT next season.. Kind of like what it has for Florida's offense in the SEC in it's third year..Eventually these defenses will wise up to it..Until then GT is going to beat up on teams like this. GT won't have to score much to cover this spread..I don't see the young Virginia QB or their run game having much success against the GT defensive front, which has a couple furtue NFLers on it.
New Mexico is the running dogs because they have the better run defense. AF hasn't played a run defense this good since they played Utah..The difference here is that AF is the favorites. If New Mexico shuts down their run what are they going to do? AF only averages 95 ypg passing. It SHOULD be a close game..But you never know with these MWC teams..They can be very erratic at times. So I haven't decided if I'm going to play it..
Virginia definitely has a tough time getting points on the board. They have to work hard for the scores they get.
I like the play. I would like the Under for the game as well, except that I look for Georgia Tech to score around 28, which puts the tally too close to that 37.5 for comfort.
I think I may have just gotten comfortable enough to pull the trigger on the Wreck giving that much..
I like the play. I would like the Under for the game as well, except that I look for Georgia Tech to score around 28, which puts the tally too close to that 37.5 for comfort.
I think I may have just gotten comfortable enough to pull the trigger on the Wreck giving that much..
Something I didn't mention is Virginia is leaving their comfort zone for the first time since Sept. 27 when they lost to Duke 31-3..The same team GT beat 27-0..I hate to compare scores to cap a game. But the key here is GT still has some great personnel left from the Gailey era. Some great defensive players. And much better than the lower half of the ACC has. Virginia lost virtually every quality player off of their team from last season, including their best defensive player Chris Long. That's why they were picked to finish last in their conference...Their better than what they were at the beginning of the season..But not yet in Ga Tech's class.
Minnesota at Purdue...I'll make this simple..This is a good technical spot for Purdue. They have the better running game (running dogs), better YPP on defense, and the better strength of schedule..Do you guys remember how well the running dogs did in the bowl games last season? This same formula was undefeated in the bowls last season. That's why I love this play. The only real difference here is this is now a pickem game. I can't give you a whole lot more reasons why I like Purdue except the fact that I think Minny has benefited from an easy schedule. And Purdue has been the victims of a difficult schedule..We're getting decent value here because of the dud of a game that Purdue threw in last week against Northwestern. A game in which Purdue had 450 yards of offense just like NW. But also had 5 turnovers. and lost 48-26..If you look at the rest of their games Purdue has been very competetive..Especially at home. Minnesota upset a 4-3 Illinois team last week. But without looking at the score, if you had told me that Minny would have got outyardaged 550 yards to 312 i would have said it would have been a 2 or 3 TD loss. But that's football..At any rate, this is one game that you can't judge a book by it's cover..The body of work (stats) tells me Purdue is the little better team playing at home..Look for a much better effort out of Purdue this week playing an already bowl eligible Minny team coming off a bye week..Taking Purdue (PK) over Minnesota ***
Rutgers at Pitt...I love seeing good defenses getting more than a TD in the Big East..It usually turns out to be a close game or an outright upset..I see a close game here. At the beginning of the season Rutgers was a very mistake prone team..And it made them look like a worse team than what they really were...But the team is starting to come together.. QB Teel is not making those mistakes anymore..In fact the last three games Ruutgers has played some very clean mistake-free football. They've also played very good on defense in holding Cincy, WV and Uconn to 353, 336 and 333 total yards....And because of this they've covered the last 4 games in a row. With two of these games on the road. Now Rutgers is playing a Pitt team who has had an easier strength of schedule than Rutgers. And their getting points..Like their last 3 games, I expect another close defensive game played within a TD. Plus coaching advantage goes to Schiano over the Stache. Taking Rutgers (+9.5) over Pitt **
