.............fkin dr bob stole my points ..........lolGS, the one thing that was keeping me away from Mizzou is I thought OSU could have provided a blue print to beat Chase Daniel but I agree with what you say in regards to Texas's weaknesses are the Tigers strength. I just can't believe an experienced team like Mizzou wouldn't take OSU seriously coming in undefeated. That's college football though, it seems like when a team is a 10 or more favorite they always have a chance at sleepwalking.
Tootight...College football is 50% about emotion. And the other 50% of it is coaching, schemes and talent. Mizzou was coming off a big win and reading too many of their own headlines before playing OSU. OSU also out schemed Mizzou that night and beat them at their own game...Don't expect that to happen two weeks in a row..These teams never play the same game twice...Let me repeat this: They NEVER run the same schemes. You can bet your bottom dollar that Mizzou won't have the same gameplan for Texas that they had for OSU. And Texas won't have the same gameplan that they had for OU.. They are all completely different teams with the different problems for the defenses..The bottom line is there isn't a talent difference between OU, Texas and Mizzou...There just isn't. There will be talent running all over that field from both sides on Saturday night.
Thanks BP. I think they were probably meaning to say that Texas is 10-0 SU after OU...But that really doesn't mean anything either considering the bad teams they have faced afterwards.GoSooners, 2004, Roy Williams takes Chris Sims' head off(0-12). Next week, Texas -13.5 over MISSOURI, final 28-20. They also didn't cover in 1998 against Baylor(-17.5 won 30-20). I hate misinformation!(8-2 ats after OU)hno:
Sooner-
I like Mizzou as well-
Do you really think OU covers the chalk w/KS? I know its not a strong play for you and I am on the edge in pulling the trigger-I feel like KS can back door them-That Spread Option can get points up in a hurry so even down by 28 or 29 points a final TD late would kill it-You obtained a good line at -19.5.
Any way GL this weekend.
Thanks again.
I like Mizzou as well-
Do you really think OU covers the chalk w/KS? I know its not a strong play for you and I am on the edge in pulling the trigger-I feel like KS can back door them-That Spread Option can get points up in a hurry so even down by 28 or 29 points a final TD late would kill it-You obtained a good line at -19.5.
Any way GL this weekend.
Thanks again.
KC...I like the OVER play more. The only reason I put a small play on OU is Stoops tends to chew some ass all week after OU loses a game...And they tend to play really good the next week...The bottom line here is that Kansas just doesn't match up well against OU. And I think their only chance at all to cover this spread will be a backdoor cover....Good luck
GS, what are your thoughts on the TTU/A&M over? Any reason why TTU won't put up 50+ in this one? I know Harrell and the boys struggled at home vs a weak Nebraska D, but this Aggies defense is a complete and utter mess. A&M should be good for 20-28 points I would think. Solid card, definetely tailing you on Missouri and the OU/KU over.
Addict...I'm probably going to put a one unit play on Texas A&M..Like I told a poster in here earlier in the week, with the excpetion of the KSU game TT hasn't been scoring their normal half a hundred every game..They are starting to get their RB's involved more in the game. And become what looks like more of a ball control type of team..The KSU team that they scored 58 on had an absolutely terrible defense (worst in the Big 12). Texas A&M is better statistically on defense than KSU. Plus many people don't realize what a rivalry game this is..These two teams absolutely hate each other. And TT normally doesn't score as many points on offense away from home..Especially on grass as opposed to turf. Just a small play for me since I really don't trust either team that much..But i like playing against teams coming off an overtime win and then giving double digits on the road to a conference team the next week....Something I wanted to ask you about. What do you think of Washington getting +16 this week against Oregon State? I've heard that Washington has had this game circled on their calender ever since OSU knocked Jake Locker out of the game last year. Washington claimed it was a cheap shot and said they'll be getting revenge this year..I was thinking with his job on the line and two weeks to prepare, that this would be Tyrone Willingham's last hurrah...What do you think?
Good points on TTU not being the offensive team they are on turf. Probably best to not play anything in this one.
The UW is a complete mess right now. While non of the players would admit it, I think that BYU heartbreaker took it out of them and Ty has lost complete control of the team. Before last week, the defense ranked 119th in total defense with only SMU being worse. Ronnie Fouch hasn't really looked that bad taking over for Locker considering the surrounding skill position players he has (next to nothing).
One of the most amazing stats of the season so far is that UW has only thrown 1 INT this whole season between Locker/Fouch. The one thing that the mutts have done so far is taking care of the ball and not turning it over. I think Ty and the coaching staff is going to try and get a running game going early because everyone that knows this UW program wants the defense off the field as long as possible.
While OSU blew the doors off of us last week, they have to be a little concerned about the QB play of Moevao. After throwing 4 picks in the first half to the Cougs, I'm expecting OSU to come out and pound Quizz Rodgers, and slowly getting Lyle back in a groove by having him throw in good situations.
OSU-UW has always been physical in the past and hasn't come close to putting up 60 points combined in the past. OSU is going to pound Rodgers against a weak UW defense. As long as UW keeps taking care of the ball like they have the first 5 games of the season, I don't see this game sniffing the 59.5 or 60. I'm going under pretty strong here.
I'm thinking OSU in a 34-17 type game. If this one becomes a blowout Riley won't pour it on. The only reason the game last week got out of hand is because we kept turning it over inside our own 20 which lead to easy OSU points.
I hear you on that, and most of the time you're right. But I think you have to make an exception for this game considering just how horrid the UW defense is. If you want to play UW, I'd go first half because Ty gets his team fired up for the first half and then gets completely and utterly outcoached once halftime comes.
Houston at SMU...SMU looks to me like a team on the improve. I kept wondering why the sharps were on SMU last week when they played Tulsa..Now I can see why. This SMU team was dreadful at the beginning of the year. But most of it had to do with the fact that Bo Levi was still trying to get used to June Jones complicated offense. But since throwing a truckload of int's in his first 3 or 4 games, he's really coming on strong in the last 3. He's thrown for almost a 1000 yards in these last 3 games for 8 TD's..He had 4 against Tulsa last week with just 1 int. SMU is a young team..But at this point in the season, those sophomores are playing more like juniors. And the defense is playing miles better than the beginning of the year. Just holding a Tulsa team who averges 56 points a game to 37 is quite an accomplishment. Yes, SMU has dropped 5 games in a row. But they are 3-2 ATS in those games. But those ATS losses were against a BCS team Texas Tech and then TCU, who has one of the best defenses in the country..Against the softer CUSA competetion SMU has been very competetive. It's like an allowance horse going back down to claiming company..Eventually these Mustangs are going to come up and surprise someone. And I think they do it here..I look for the fine performance against Tulsa to carry over to this game..And now their playing a Houston team who is neither as good offensively or defensively as the Tulsa team that SMU played last week. And Houston has a terrible habit of playing down to their competetion..Especially on the road.. This could be an outright win for SMU...Taking SMU (+13.5) over Houston ***
Michigan at Penn State...Maybe everybody else is seeing something I'm not. But I haven't seen just a whole lot of people on Penn State this week. Sure, Michigan has a good defensive front. But what else do they have? In my opinion they won't be able to match up with Penn State anywhere else on the field. This is a situation where Penn State has lost 9 in a row to the Wolves. And my bet is there's nothing Paterno wants more than to not only beat this team. But beat em bad. So I think PSU will be very motivated here. Another BIG win keeps them in good shape with the BCS. And sets them up next week with Ohio State. I also see little chance of a backdoor cover from a team who is averaging less than 300 yards and 19 ppg on offense. This has been a long year for coach Rod. And the poor season even has the Michigan athletic director starting to defend the coach. But the bottom line is with just 10 starters returning, they lost alot of talent off of this team. And it's going to take time for coach Rod to get the right players for his system. Right now he's trying to put round pegs in square holes. And basically the only success he's had is a miracle victory over a Wisconsin team who has now dropped 3 in a row. Including a 48-7 loss last week to PSU. Besides Penn St. just being a much better team that would be 30 point favorites if the team name didn't have Michigan on it, the angle play to finally get the losing streak monkey off their backs is too strong here..Don't try to overthink this..PSU is just the much much better team. And could be playing for the NC at the end of the year..Nobody has impressed me more..PSU is 6-1 ATS and are on a bigtime roll...I think they make it 7-1 ATS this week...Taking Penn State (-24.5) over Michigan ***
Michigan at Penn State...Maybe everybody else is seeing something I'm not. But I haven't seen just a whole lot of people on Penn State this week. Sure, Michigan has a good defensive front. But what else do they have? In my opinion they won't be able to match up with Penn State anywhere else on the field. This is a situation where Penn State has lost 9 in a row to the Wolves. And my bet is there's nothing Paterno wants more than to not only beat this team. But beat em bad. So I think PSU will be very motivated here. Another BIG win keeps them in good shape with the BCS. And sets them up next week with Ohio State. I also see little chance of a backdoor cover from a team who is averaging less than 300 yards and 19 ppg on offense. This has been a long year for coach Rod. And the poor season even has the Michigan athletic director starting to defend the coach. But the bottom line is with just 10 starters returning, they lost alot of talent off of this team. And it's going to take time for coach Rod to get the right players for his system. Right now he's trying to put round pegs in square holes. And basically the only success he's had is a miracle victory over a Wisconsin team who has now dropped 3 in a row. Including a 48-7 loss last week to PSU. Besides Penn St. just being a much better team that would be 30 point favorites if the team name didn't have Michigan on it, the angle play to finally get the losing streak monkey off their backs is too strong here..Don't try to overthink this..PSU is just the much much better team. And could be playing for the NC at the end of the year..Nobody has impressed me more..PSU is 6-1 ATS and are on a bigtime roll...I think they make it 7-1 ATS this week...Taking Penn State (-24.5) over Michigan ***
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This week's plays so far:
OU-Kansas (OVER 60.5) **
OU (-19.5) over Kansas *
Baylor (+17) over OSU **
Missouri (+6) over Texas **
Georgia Tech (-2) over Clemson **
New Mexico State (+2) over San Jose St. **
Colorado St. (+21.5) over Utah **
Memphis (+8) over East Carolina ***
SMU (+13.5) over Houston ***
Penn St. (-24.5) over Michigan ***
OU-Kansas (OVER 60.5) **
OU (-19.5) over Kansas *
Baylor (+17) over OSU **
Missouri (+6) over Texas **
Georgia Tech (-2) over Clemson **
New Mexico State (+2) over San Jose St. **
Colorado St. (+21.5) over Utah **
Memphis (+8) over East Carolina ***
SMU (+13.5) over Houston ***
Penn St. (-24.5) over Michigan ***
Go Sooners, I was originally thinking of taking SMU, but there were a few things that steered me away.
1. SMU's defense, across the board, is the worst in C-USA, maybe Rice's is worse, but not by much. Houston is putting up 585 yards of offense so far in conference play. I don't see SMU slowing them down much.
2. Houston's defense is better than the Tulsa D that SMU saw last week. Tulsa's linebackers and DBs are below average relative to the conference. That helped SMU's offense for sure. Houston has the arguably the best front seven on D in the conference. I could see Mitchell facing a lot of pressure in this one and we know he is still fairly inexperienced and mistake prone.
3. The line is exactly half of what is was last week, even though Houston isn't that far behind Tulsa IMO.
4. Houston was favored at home by 19 over these guys last year, and I just don't think SMU has closed the gap that much.
You are right though. June Jones did say that it would take until about midseason for his offense to get going, so maybe we'll see another improved effort out of SMU. Either way, best of luck with your play.
1. SMU's defense, across the board, is the worst in C-USA, maybe Rice's is worse, but not by much. Houston is putting up 585 yards of offense so far in conference play. I don't see SMU slowing them down much.
2. Houston's defense is better than the Tulsa D that SMU saw last week. Tulsa's linebackers and DBs are below average relative to the conference. That helped SMU's offense for sure. Houston has the arguably the best front seven on D in the conference. I could see Mitchell facing a lot of pressure in this one and we know he is still fairly inexperienced and mistake prone.
3. The line is exactly half of what is was last week, even though Houston isn't that far behind Tulsa IMO.
4. Houston was favored at home by 19 over these guys last year, and I just don't think SMU has closed the gap that much.
You are right though. June Jones did say that it would take until about midseason for his offense to get going, so maybe we'll see another improved effort out of SMU. Either way, best of luck with your play.
ND...I'm only getting about 25 yards difference between Houston's and Tulsa's defense. But at any rate, I look for SMU's offense to cover this spread more than their defense. I realize the line is 11 points less than last week. But it also hasn't moved off the opening number. Houston was favored by 19 over SMU last year..And under any other circumstances I would consider this angle..But both of these teams have new coaching staffs and new systems. And although it may not be showing up in their defensive numbers, SMU has improved greatly since the beginning of the year. The defense is flying to the ball better. They may be giving up yards, but they're causing more havoc with opposing offenses. Tulsa QB Johnson completed less than 50% of his passes last week with 2 int's..I look for that kind of play to carry over this week....Good luck
Yeah, i keep stats just for conference games because the strengths of schedule vary so wildly in non-conference play. In conference play, everyone plays a pretty similar SOS, so it is easier to compare numbers and get to the bottom of things. I have Tulsa's D giving up 445 ypg in conference vs. Houston giving up 314 ypg in conference play so far for what it's worth. Houston played Oklahoma State in non-conference play, so i'm sure their defensive numbers are worse off because of that game. Still, relative to the C-USA, I like Houston's defense more than Tulsa's.
We also have to look at the styles in which these teams play..Tulsa is very uptempo..They had a couple drives in one game that were under 30 seconds..So this keeps their defense out on the field longer...But I've never really used the words defense and CUSA in the same sentence anyway..It's the craziest conference in football. But what I do this time of year is start looking at young teams to improve..The double digit spreads that teams were covering against them start getting harder to cover..Virginia is a good example of this too. And Arkansas might be starting to come around. Although it may not seem that obvious with them since they play in a tough conference. But SMU looks like these teams..They look like their finally starting to get it..They might bounce here off the Tulsa game and revert back to their old ways..But I'm going to play them this week to continue to show improvement..And like I said, Houston has a habit at times of playing down to their competetion.
I agree. It happens every single year. Teams that suck ATS in the first half typically come back and start covering with much greater frequency in the 2nd half. Totally agree that SMU could fall under that umbrella. The only team i have really seen defy this rule recently is Wyoming. They lose ATS no matter the opponent or the spread.
