I like your opinion on Kstate. I also think Ron Prince will get fired after this year. But hell they just gave Frank Martin an extension for being a freak on the sideline. I like all your picks this week. They only difference of opinion is I got Ku+20. Being my favorite team, I got to take them plus the points, even against my vote for heisman, Bradford. But the over is a great pick that needs to be taken now, the line will shift in the unders favor.
Sooners,
I'm a big WAC follower (from Hawaii) and I think SJ state has the better team here. I know NMSU has an explsovie offense, but they are horrid on special teams and defense. I think this is what wins the game for SJ state. I read somewhere that SJ state has the best pass def. efficiency in college football or the WAC (i know that's a big stretch). At first glance, I thought NMSU only giving 2 pts? Then I examined a lil more and felt like SJ state is probably gonna win this game. They have momentum on their side (undefeated in WAC), but they need to watch out for lookahead game Vs. Boise next week.
as always... aloha.
I had a chance to get this at -18 and didn't do it because I wanted to look at the game a little further. Also Stoops situation with moving around some defensive players to take the place of LB Reynolds made me hesitate. I'm still not sure exactly what kind of defense OU is going to come out with this week. Something tells me this game could fall pretty close to the line..AA My numbers have it at OU -24. But the thing I fear the most is a letdown. Which is the same thing I fear from Mizzou..That's why I made my plays small for both teams..The BCS letdown affect is a very real thing. I just hope it doesn't affect both teams this weekend.
fade...I understand what your saying..But San Jose hasn't faced a passing attack even remotely this good this season. If they were playing at San Jose I would feel differently about the game. But with the game at NMST I don't feel like their defense is as much of an issue in this game...And my numbers have these two teams at dead even with NMST having the homefield advantage..Good luck
Memphis at East Carolina...I feel like we're getting good value here with Memphis. They are definitely the potential running dogs in this game. And their getting more than a TD. East Carolina is on a 3 game losing skid. ECU has the better YPP defense (but barely) but Memphis has the better PPG allowed vs better offenses played...ECU has lived off of special teams/defensive points (28 so far this season). Without those they are only averaging 19.83 ppg. On top of this, Skip Holtz is going to start rotating QB's because Pinkney has lost his mojo. He was throwing something like 65% in his first 3 games, and he is barely over 50% in his last 3 (3 td's 3 int's) Memphis has a good chance to outrush ECU here...They are averaging 167 ypg to ECU's 124. I think with getting into the meat of their schedule that ECU is starting to feel the affects of losing RB Chris Johnson to the NFL. The final analysis has Memphis at +110 yards. Yet they are getting points? A few extra tidbits: ECU is banged up in the secondary with senior CB Hewitt doubtful and sophomore Marshall probable. Both have shoulder injuries. This isn't a good situation facing a Memphis offense loaded with tall and talented receivers. NOTE that Memphis also without their best DL McDonald, who led the CUSA in sacks. QUOTE TO NOTE: "I'd like to think that our offense is a handful for whoever we play. I'm certainly not trying to be cocky about anything, but I love what we're doing right now because I think you have to defend us both ways," Memphis coach Tommy West..With the exception of their first game against Ole Miss, Memphis has been in every game this year. And hasn't lost any game by more than 7 points..Their offense keeps them in these games..And it should hold true here..Fellas, I'm making this a 3 star play..But this could very well be a Best Bet play by kickoff. I really like this play..My numbers actually have Memphis favored by 1.79. Plus they are the potential running dogs..A double whammy.. ...I'm taking Memphis (+8) over East Carolina ***
I like your Memphis play and think you've likely got a winner there. I had been looking at them but talked myself out of putting anything on the game. Memphis is one of those teams that every time I happen to watch them, it seems, it also happens to be a day the team seems terribly disinterested in the game. So I end up getting a skewed impression of them.
AA...I saw where you also had Memphis as a running dog on your spreadsheet..I lost a small play on them last week..But they gave something like 21 points in gifts to Louisville in that game..And still almost won it. I look for Memphis to win this one outright..I'll also have a little on the ML on them..I'm glad Dr. Bob didn't mess with this game..I may put more on it if I can keep the line over a TD.
GS, I have been looking up and down the board for some good value, it is getting harder and harder now that the books have a good feel for where teams finally are. This game is the one game that really stuck out to me. I too love Memphis here, if you look at Memphis, outside of the ole miss game, they are just a few plays away from being a one loss team. Two scores in this game is way too much in my mind. ECU has fallen like a rock since the NC State game. Good luck
douglas...I actually like Mizzou all the way down to pickem..I think they can win this game outright. But I realize their playing at a tough place for opposing teams to play in Austin...So I'll take any points they give me. I think Texas has the same problems as OU does. They lack a running game outside of Colt McCoy. And they lack a pass defense.. I feel that those two weaknesses will come out Saturday night..I can almost guarantee you that Mizzou was just caught sleeping last week against OSU. I think you'll see that the top teams in this conference are very evenly matched..Something that I felt at the beginning of the year. And I haven't seen anything to make me believe otherwise. In my opinion Mizzou is so good that they also would have beaten OU last week. The Sooners and Texas have certain weaknesses this year that plays into Mizzou's strengths. Plus most people don't take these kinds of things into account when capping games, but Texas expended alot of energy last week in coming from behind to win their biggest game of the year. And I seriously doubt that they can repeat that same intensity against another top notch team..This is very hard to do.. The big trend stat that has been going around by a certain poster in the RX this week is that Texas is 10-0 ATS the week after playing OU..But most of the Horns opponents after OU have consisted of the Iowa State's and the Baylor's out there. I only saw one team that they played after OU who was actually rated. And that was #24 Colorado at home. They've never had to face a team the week after OU who is in my opinion a top 5 team and be a favorite the next week....BIG difference. Trends are made to be broken. Another thing that people don't take into account is Mizzou is a great road team....Good luck
