Fantasy MVP, breakout player, bust?

[CHOPTALK]

almost all of those rb busted last season. Or in my case, AP actually had a great year but without a dominant wr on my fantasy team I busted. live and learn I guess

These running backs have been busting for years.

Im not saying that this new strategy people are implementing is not a good strategy.
I agree with it actually.

Im just trying to figure out how literally almost everyone came to this conclusion almost overnight.


Thats one of the main things I do with fantasy.
I read trends.

I check ADPs.

The philosophy of drafting PPR/Non PPR as made a big shift this year.

And as usual people are taking it too far.


I understand the old philosophy of taking a RB because there are only a few goods.
But people took that too literal.

People were taking the 8th best RB in the NFL in the first round when the #1 WR was still undrafted.

Now it looks like its heading the other direction to the extreme.

It honestly does not matter to me as long as I can correctly notice the paradigm shift and make my adjustments accordingly.

Instead of me being the WR guy like I use to be it looks like im gonna become the RB guy now.

No biggie.

 

[HarryCaray]

Drafted today. I had pick 9 in a 12 team league. Gurley was kept with a 5th and 6th round pick. I kept Allen Robinson with 6th and 7th round picks.

Elliot and Hopkins were both there at 9. Tough decision...I took Hopkins.

Here was my draft

Hopkins

Mark Ingram

Sammy Watkins

CJ Anderson

Kelce

Allen Robinson

x

Jordan Mathews

Blake Bortles

Jay Ajayi

Steve Smith

Denver

Julius Thomas

Treadwell

Tim Hightower

Catanzaro

<tbody>
</tbody>

I'd probably do it differently if I had it to do over again. I should have picked a WR in round 2 and Langford later. I'm not super high on Ingram or CJ, it just kinda fell that way. I also think I reached for Kelce; there is a lot of TE value later in the draft. Should have gone RB there, I ended up real thin at that position, especially considering my #1 has injury history.

Fairly happy with my team though. Saving grace there is I like Watkins almost as much as any of the WR that were there in round 2. I like the value I got on CJ as well as Matthews.

 

[JustinCruise]

Drafted today. I had pick 9 in a 12 team league. Gurley was kept with a 5th and 6th round pick. I kept Allen Robinson with 6th and 7th round picks.

Elliot and Hopkins were both there at 9. Tough decision...I took Hopkins.

Here was my draft

Hopkins

Mark Ingram

Sammy Watkins

CJ Anderson

Kelce

Allen Robinson

x

Jordan Mathews

Blake Bortles

Jay Ajayi

Steve Smith

Denver

Julius Thomas

Treadwell

Tim Hightower

Catanzaro

<tbody>
</tbody>

I'd probably do it differently if I had it to do over again. I should have picked a WR in round 2 and Langford later. I'm not super high on Ingram or CJ, it just kinda fell that way. I also think I reached for Kelce; there is a lot of TE value later in the draft. Should have gone RB there, I ended up real thin at that position, especially considering my #1 has injury history.

Fairly happy with my team though. Saving grace there is I like Watkins almost as much as any of the WR that were there in round 2. I like the value I got on CJ as well as Matthews.

Hopkins at 9 is a steal if this is ppr. You made the right decision there. Dallas offense will struggle with Romo out. I like watkins in the 3rd round as well. I've seen him go in round 2 in most mocks.

Im not a fan of CJ Anderson or Jordan mathews because they screwed me pretty bad as my first round and third round pick in one league last year. I am not buying Jordan mathews bounce back this year but I do believe CJ will have a good season. He's undervalued in 2016, opposite of last year. I don't see any reason why he won't be the bell cow back in that run first offense.

I agree that you reached on kelce, probably could have had him a few rounds later.

Best thing is your 3 wr (assuming you start 3 in this league) will be pretty studly with robinson, hopkins, watkins. Plus you have two strong rb to pair with them.

 

[JustinCruise]

be prepared to be infuriated with KC's unforgivable lack of Kelce usage. The guy is a phenomenal talent but they all but ignore him in the offense at times. I had him last year.

 

[HarryCaray]

Hopkins at 9 is a steal if this is ppr. You made the right decision there. Dallas offense will struggle with Romo out. I like watkins in the 3rd round as well. I've seen him go in round 2 in most mocks.

Im not a fan of CJ Anderson or Jordan mathews because they screwed me pretty bad as my first round and third round pick in one league last year. I am not buying Jordan mathews bounce back this year but I do believe CJ will have a good season. He's undervalued in 2016, opposite of last year. I don't see any reason why he won't be the bell cow back in that run first offense.

I agree that you reached on kelce, probably could have had him a few rounds later.

Best thing is your 3 wr (assuming you start 3 in this league) will be pretty studly with robinson, hopkins, watkins. Plus you have two strong rb to pair with them.

We start 2 WR and a WR/RB flex. So my starting lineup will be

Bortles
Ingram
Anderson
Hopkins
Robinson
Kelce
Watkins

Yeah it's PPR, so I think Hopkins was the right pick. I reached on Kelce because I gave up my 6th and 7th round picks for Robinson, so after round 5 I wasn't gonna pick again for like 40 more picks. Already had my starting core or RB/WR, and the top QB's were off the board so I knew I might as well wait on that.

Admittedly kind of a panic move, but there wasn't a RB or WR there that jumped out at me.

Anyway, I share all this cause like Chop said, mocks aren't 100% indicative of what will happen in a real draft. Wanted to share a real 12 team PPR draft and who was available when, at least in my league.

Seems like most people either went with the "wait on RB" strategy, or took a top tier RB with an early pick. Which allows those mid-range RB like Anderson to shake down a round or so below where they should go.

 

[JustinCruise]

thanks for sharing hc. I think you had a solid draft

my first draft is Tuesday. I may post my results here

 

[JustinCruise]

a top 3 pick really feels like the golden ticket this year

Guarantees brown, julio, odb. Then you're safe to get two more stud wr in the next 2 picks like Jordy nelson, Mike Evans, Amari cooper, Keenan Allen, etc...

at least that's how it's been in mocks. could be totally different in the real thing

 

[NBAcapper08]

JC next season if there is an opening in the 500$ league u need to man up

 

[HarryCaray]

a top 3 pick really feels like the golden ticket this year

Guarantees brown, julio, odb. Then you're safe to get two more stud wr in the next 2 picks like Jordy nelson, Mike Evans, Amari cooper, Keenan Allen, etc...

at least that's how it's been in mocks. could be totally different in the real thing

a) Most of those second WR you mentioned are gone before the end of round 2
b) Where does that leave you with RB?

You're taking this WR obsession too far. As shown above, you can still end up with a nice core of 3 beast WR and fit in a couple early round RB picks...you don't have to go WR/WR/WR.

Lemme ask you this. Which is a bigger dropoff - Ingram to Woodhead or Keenan Allen to Watkins.

I'd rather start Moncrief at my WR3 than Duke Johnson at my RB2. For example

 

[NBAcapper08]

a) Most of those second WR you mentioned are gone before the end of round 2
b) Where does that leave you with RB?

You're taking this WR obsession too far. As shown above, you can still end up with a nice core of 3 beast WR and fit in a couple early round RB picks...you don't have to go WR/WR/WR.

Lemme ask you this. Which is a bigger dropoff - Ingram to Woodhead or Keenan Allen to Watkins.

I'd rather start Moncrief at my WR3 than Duke Johnson at my RB2. For example

in PPR ingram and woodhead are the same

 

[HarryCaray]

I'd rather pick in the middle and have choice between Hopkins/Green or even AP/EE, and catch an earlier 2nd round pick.

 

[HarryCaray]

in PPR ingram and woodhead are the same

False

 

[NBAcapper08]

False

okay

 

[JustinCruise]

a) Most of those second WR you mentioned are gone before the end of round 2
b) Where does that leave you with RB?

You're taking this WR obsession too far. As shown above, you can still end up with a nice core of 3 beast WR and fit in a couple early round RB picks...you don't have to go WR/WR/WR.

Lemme ask you this. Which is a bigger dropoff - Ingram to Woodhead or Keenan Allen to Watkins.

I'd rather start Moncrief at my WR3 than Duke Johnson at my RB2. For example

it really just depends where I pick in the draft

Picking top 3 and I keep ending up with wr in first 3 rounds. But if I'm in the middle of the draft ive been getting David Johnson a lot, and Leveon if I'm at the end. But again it just depends. I had one mock where Hopkins fell to pick 11 so I grabbed him.

point is I'm transitioning to not 100% sticking to only WRs early if there are better players available.


I'll say this though. if I had 3 stud wr I would feel perfectly fine starting a guy like woodhead, Giovanni bernard, or Duke Johnson as my rb. Like I've said before in my league we start 3 wr and one rb

 

[HarryCaray]

okay

They were just two names off the top of my head with ADP's far enough apart that it made my illustration. If you happen to think the pundits are wrong about Ingram or Woodhead (or both) and they are actually of equal value, cool, but that wasn't the point. Substitute any 2 names you deem to be 2 ADP rounds apart. Let's say Jamaal Charles and Latavius Murray.

Would you rather start

Jamaal Charles/Sammy Watkins

or

Latavius Murray/Jordy Nelson

That was the point, just for discussion sake. I'm not saying one answer is right vs the other.

 

[JustinCruise]

in PPR ingram and woodhead are the same

Ingram way more valuable

 

[JustinCruise]

JC next season if there is an opening in the 500$ league u need to man up

you guys do ppr next season and I'm in.

 

[JustinCruise]

hc were there any off the wall picks in your draft

normally there is always that one guy

 

[NBAcapper08]

They were just two names off the top of my head with ADP's far enough apart that it made my illustration. If you happen to think the pundits are wrong about Ingram or Woodhead (or both) and they are actually of equal value, cool, but that wasn't the point. Substitute any 2 names you deem to be 2 ADP rounds apart. Let's say Jamaal Charles and Latavius Murray.

Would you rather start

Jamaal Charles/Sammy Watkins

or

Latavius Murray/Jordy Nelson

That was the point, just for discussion sake. I'm not saying one answer is right vs the other.

i would call those combination of players equal. just my opinion. i see what you're trying to say but in PPR the winner of my last 4 leagues have gone WR WR WR, thats what I base my option off of. I won it last year with that strategy, there is always RB that come around at the end. example david johnson and tim hightower. WR don't just pop up and become elite assets

 

[HarryCaray]

hc were there any off the wall picks in your draft

normally there is always that one guy

Gronk went 4th overall. Cam went in the 2nd round. Those two surprised me. I'll post the first few rounds here.